Case Study: Somalia Conflict AnalysisSara ChoppDePaul UniversitySchool of Public Service

Conflict AnalysisStakeholder Analysis: Primary Actors, Secondary Actors, Third Parties and

External Actors

Root Causes: Parties’ Motivations and Underlying Fears

History of Peacemaking Efforts: Issues, Scope, Stage & Phase of Conflict and Times of Peace, Changes & Attempts at Settlement

Conflict Dynamics and Political Actors: Social and Political Drivers, Environmental and Institutional Drivers, Economic Drivers

Stakeholder AnalysisPrimary Actors,

Secondary Actors, Third Parties and External Actors

Primary Actors: Militia Groups

Somali Democratic Front (SSDF), led by Abdullahi Yusuf

Somali Army

Somalia Reconciliation and Restoration Council (SRRC), led by Somali warlords

Al-Shabaab, led by Islamic radicals and identified as Somali al Qaeda

Islamic Courts Union (ICU)

Sufis ASWJ

Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS)

Primary Actors: Clan-based Liberation Movements

United Somali Congress (USC), led by Hawiye

Somali National Movement (SNM), led by Isaaq

Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM), led by Ogadeni

Somali Salvation Democratic Movement (SSDM), led by Majerten

Primary Actors: Nonviolent Political Oppositions

Somali Democratic Movement (SDM)

Somali Democratic Alliance (SDA)

Somali Manifesto Group (SMG)

Primary Actors: State Collapse

Somali National Alliance (SNA)

Dictator Siad Barre

Supreme Revolutionary Council (SRC), led by Siad Barre

Abgal clan

Habargidir clan

Isaaq clan

Ogaden clan

Hawiye clan

Digil clan

Mirifle clan

Primary Actors: Governance

Somaliland

Puntland

South-central Somalia

Transitional National Government (TNG)

Transitional Federal Government (TFG), led by President Salat Assan and Prime Minister Ali Khalif Gelayadh

Federal Government of Somalia (FGoS)

Islamic Courts Union (ICU), led by Sharif Sheikh Ahmed

Radicalized ICU factions

Secondary Actors: Neighboring Countries and International

Actors

Primary Actors

Djibouti

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Kenya

Sudan

Uganda

Secondary Actors

Malawi

Nigeria

Burundi

Tanzania

Ghana

Kenya

Peace Support Mission to Somalia: Intergovernmental Authority on Development (AGD) and UN Security Council (UNSC)

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), supported by United Nations (UN) and European Union (EU)

Secondary Actors: Neighboring Countries and International

ActorsSupports UIC, ARS or Al-Shabaab

Egypt

Iran

Yemen

Arms Supporters

Eritrea

Djibouti

Egypt

Ethiopia

Iran

Libya

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Political Players

Ethiopia

Pakistan

Malaysia

African Union peacekeepers

Third Parties: International Actors

Resource Suppliers

Soviet Union

United States

Communications

World Food Program

The Monitoring Group

International Maritime Organization

Aid Suppliers

United Nations

United Kingdom

The Arab League

Red Cross

Medicins sans Frontieres

CARE

CARITAS

OXFAM

Save the Children

+52 NGOs

Peacebuilders

International Somalia Contact Group

United Nations Operation in Somalia I & II (UNOSOM I & II)

Unified Task Force (UNITAF)

External Actors United Nations

Supported TFG UNOSOM I UNOSOM II

Battle of Mogdishu

United States UNITAF Alliance for the

Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT)

UNOSOM II Battle of Mogdishu

Manhunt for Aideed Black Hawk Down

Assassinated al-Shabaab’s leader, Ayro

Kenya Harbored TFG

African Union Supported TFG

Ethiopia Military intervention

against factions and UIC

Supported TFG Meddled with

Somalia’s stability

Entrepreneurial Business Community Supports Islamic

Institutions

Djibouti Hosted peace

conference in 2000 to form TNG

Al Qaeda Failed to establish

support

Islamic Institutions Social welfare system Judicial systems

Entrepreneurial Business Community Supports Islamic

Institutions

Eritrea Partnered with UIC

Humanitarian organizations Subjected to violence

AMISOM Warfare against

terrorist attacks

Root CausesParties’ Motivations and Underlying Fears

Parties’ Motivations and Underlying Fears

Cause

Europe gives Ogaden to Ethiopia

Oppression & Violence

Loss at Ogaden

Failure to overthrow Barre

Repression by state

Dispute with Ethiopia

Barre is overthrown

Shifting clan control & corruption

Resource scarcity

Effect

Conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia

Liberation Movements

Uprising against Barre

Barre retaliates against Majerteen

Resistance by opposition groups

Ethiopia supports oppositions

Clan disputes over power

Inequity, injustice & marginalization

Continued conflict between clans

History of Peacemaking Efforts

Issues, Scope, Stage & Phase of Conflict

Times of Peace, Changes & Attempts at Settlement

Issues, Scope, Stage and Phase of Conflict

US Armed Forces responses to transitions in Somali conflict Humanitarian assistance (Operation Provide Relief)

Implemented after failure of UNOSOM I Airlifted food, water and medicine to Somalia Lacked security

At risk of violence Attacked at Magadishu harbor

Withdrew aid

Limited military intervention in combination with humanitarian assistance (Operation Restore Hope) Implemented after attack on OPR

Aimed to improve security for relief efforts, restore order and rebuild institutions

Peace Enforcement (UNOSOM II) Aimed to rebuild Somali nation while disarming the Somali clans

Restore security, political institutions and economic activity

Generated a sense of threat to Aideeds power Aideeds supporters attacked and killed Pakinstani soldiers

US responded with manhunt for Aideed Attacks against relief organizations resulted in the withdrawal of US troops by

1994

Times of Peace, Changes & Attempts at

Settlement Major Somalia Peace Initiatives

UN initiative Failed to consider all key actors Focused on warlords

Distorted power dynamics and fostered anarchy

European Commission initiative Did not take social and relational contexts of conflict into consideration when nation-

building Arta peace process

Lacked support from other regional key actors Eldoret/Mbagathi peace process

Ethiopia’s Invasion in 2006 Resurges violence

Generates “the world’s worst humanitarian crisis” AU responds with AMISOM peacekeeping mission

UN follows with peace conference in Djibouti in 2008 Aimed to democratize and securitize Somalia through reform, reconciliation and

international engagement Aimed to gain regional and global support National unity government established in 2009

Conflict Dynamics and Political Actors

Social and Political DriversEnvironmental and Institutional Drivers

Economic DriversIssues, Scope, Stage & Phase of Conflict

Social, Political and Institutional Drivers

Clan Relationships: Negative Outcomes Manipulated by clan leaders for

political and economic interests Cause inter- and cross-clan

disputes Creates divides between clans

and subclans Fragments and mobilizes

groups to engage in conflict

Clan Relationships: Positive Outcomes Business and CSO partnerships Provides foundation for

peacebuiliding and statebuilding

Clan-Based Governance in Somaliland and Puntland Encourages participation, cooperation

and limits conflict Promotes authoritarian rule and

corruption Institutions are weak and governance is

poor Discriminates against minority groups Maintains cross-region conflict Beel system is ineffective and inefficient Traditional and religious leaders produce

government functions Increases security, peace and justice

Lack of Governance and Anarchy in South-central Somalia Violent disputes between clan-based

fiefdoms Generates a culture of war Militarizes Somalia Clan-based divides over control Sharia courts serve as justice system

Environmental and Economic Drivers

Poorest country in the world Heavy reliance on foreign aid

Relatively high private sector activity that benefits all regions Provides employment opportunities, family sustainability and business development Promotes cross-clan collaboration Remittances

Support economic activity, such as spending and investment Supports conflict by supplying resources to warlords Not sustainable income for dependent population Cultural shift in support for conflict, preferences are for productive activities that yield

profits Weapon availability

Results from lack of border control and security Distribution and consumption of Khat

Supplies high revenues for warlords and decreases productivity and well-being of users Levies on commercial arteries

Creates conflict for control of these revenue sources Inhibits cross-border trading

Environmental and Economic Drivers

Economy is dominantly pastoral Heavily dependent on livestock exports Livestock bans in Saudi Arabia and Gulf States Devastating loss on major exporting industry, which is generating

migration from rural to urban areas and competition over other economic opportunities

Oversupply of livestock and undersupply of grazing land causes conflict and strain on resources, which is exacerbated by drought and environment deregulation.

Limited water supply inhibits agricultural production and fuels conflict

South-central Somalia is resource rich in comparison to Somaliland and Puntland Creates cross-region conflict Maintains the uneven distribution of resources

Conflict ResolutionsDonor Efforts: Civic Engagement around Governance

Initiatives

Priority Areas: Peacebuilding and Civic Engagement

Donor EffortsCivic Engagement around Governance Initiatives

Civic Engagement Around Governance

Initiatives UN Joint Programme on Local Governance and Decentralized Service Delivery

for Somalia Designed and piloted by United Nations Capital Development Fund Collaboratively implemented by UNCDF, UNDP, ILO, UN-HABITAT, UNICEF Supported by Denmark, DFID, Norway and Sida Uses a holistic and decentralized approach while focusing on civic engagement

and public service delivery initiatives Works to develop local governance, infrastructure and services Goals: peacebuilding, increasing security, creating good governance, increasing

social capital and improving service delivery in all Somali regions Facilitates the creation of regulatory framework, inclusive regional and district

administrations and the prioritization of equitable service delivery Aims to establish stability and security, effectiveness, professionalism,

responsiveness, fair representation, inclusive participation, transparency and accountability of local institutions while also promoting these organizations in order to generate a sense of legitimacy and trust amongst citizens

The emphasis is on communal engagement, participatory decision-making, and cross-sector partnerships in order to ensure fair distribution and access to public goods and services in order to sustain local development initiatives.

Civic Engagement Around Governance

Initiatives The outcomes of this program include initiating the

establishment of local government policy, legal and regulatory framework, establishing and legitimizing operational district councils, enhancing council capacity to govern and manage service delivery, increasing revenue generation, securing annual funding for district councils service delivery projects, increasing the capacity of communities and private sector service providers for service delivery, improving civic education and engagement in target communities, prioritizing budgets with respect to community needs and interests, establishing community monitoring of development projects, and instituting annual public reporting meetings in target districts (UNCDF, 2012).

Priority AreasPeace Building and Civic Engagement

Peacebuilding and Civic Engagement

2013 Somalia Compact Strategic plan for recovery and establishing peace Inclusively and collaboratively designed by the Federal Republic of Somalia, the Somali Federal

Parliament, Somali civil society, and the international community, which includes the UN and EU. Focuses on the establishment of sustainable peace

Development of infrastructure and transparent, accountable and inclusive leadership, statebuilding, trust and respect building, civic engagement and positive international relations.

Focuses on the establishment of sustainable peace Development of infrastructure and transparent, accountable and inclusive leadership, statebuilding, trust

and respect building, civic engagement and positive international relations. Strategies aim to achieve equitable and reliable justice systems, institutions, administrations and

federal governance Overarching goal: improve quality of life for the Somali people by fostering development,

mobilization and empowerment through the establishment of inclusive, participatory decision-making processes and a stable economic foundations.

Peace and statebuilding goals: inclusive politics, security, justice, economic foundations, revenue and services Trust building, reconciliation and mediation Constitution adoption, electoral framework, clearly defining administrative roles and responsibilities

Promotes effective and efficient fiscal and resource management Establish media outlets, promote gender equality, increase capacity, produce results, protect human

rights, improve external relations and empower civil society to ensure effectiveness, transparency and accountability

Peacebuilding and Civic Engagement

Peacekeeping strategies: unification, accountability, stability, security and sustainability Reduce extremism and develop cohesive federal institutions with respect to

international humanitarian law Establish an independent, equitable and trustworthy justice system based on a accountability Create legal and regulatory frameworks with respect to international standards Develop infrastructure and economic foundations that generate inclusive, accessible and

equitable employment Facilitates trust building and social cohesion Generates revenues for equitable and sustainable public service delivery

Increases access to education

Somali Compact Implementation Partnership

Revenue generation Foreign aid

Constructive, positive relationships between Somali civil society and the international community Achieve stability and security Ensures successful development, facilitation of humanitarian assistance, peacebuilding and

statebuilding

Peacebuilding and Civic Engagement

Producing and monitoring results National Planning Commission (NPC)

Risk management, strategic planning, prioritizing and monitoring, and decision-making in relation to development and financing

High Level Aid Coordination Forum (HLACF) Platform for assessing progress in terms of aid effectiveness in light of priorities and

budgets

Inter-sectoral Forum Information sharing between key sectoral leaders

Sector Coordination Forums Facilitate development partner engagement through joint assessments, monitoring and

reporting

Appeases donor efforts Identifies correlation between efforts and outcomes to ensure effectiveness and

success Demonstrates aid effectiveness Promotes mutual accountability of and participation from all key actors Encourages a transition to Somali ownership and leadership

Ensures strategies are applicable within the context of Somalia and the Somali people are fairly represented

ConclusionMechanisms for Conflict Resolution

Mechanisms for Conflict Resolution

Focus on regional comparative advantage

Create clan-based districts

Establish land and property rights

Implement environmental regulations

Practice sustainable resource management

Pressure Ethiopia to stop dam building

Develop pastoral production

Create infrastructure for water-sharing and developing arable and grazing land

Establish sustainable farming and fishing practices, as well as control standards for livestock

Clearly define roles of production with respect to land and property rights

Establish federal control for mining oil and natural gas and distributing the export revenues across the regions

Mechanisms for Conflict Resolution

Use inclusive, participatory approaches throughout the peace process

Consider roles of all sectors, as well as those of key players

Create a comprehensive clan identification system

Resolve sub-clan and cross-clan disputes through trust building and collaboration

Establish and monitor regional and international borders

Establish equitable, inclusive and representative justice systems in order to generate a sense of fairness and trust

Implement education, skills development and vocational training programs that fairly serve all clans

It is important for Puntland’s administration to focus on providing public services, fostering economic growth, promoting inclusiveness and reducing corruption through transparency and accountability in order to maintain a stable environment

To ensure stability and sustainability, Somaliland needs to focus on solidifying and strengthening its democratic institutions, promoting inclusiveness in the decision-making process, fostering economic growth for generating revenues, and conducting fair elections that produce a transparent and accountable administration