Case Study: Demographic Transitions in Iran

Bar Ilan Univ. 08.05.2012

What’s demographic transition?Reminder

Demographic transition process refers to the transition from high birth and death rates to low

birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized

economic system

The Three Stages of Population Transition

• First Stage: Total population growth rate is low but it is balanced due to high birth rates and high death rates

• Second Stage: Total population growth rate rises as death rates fall due to improvements in health care and sanitation. Birth rates remain high

• Third Stage: Total population is high, but it is balanced by a low birth rate and a low death rate. Birth control is widely available and there is a desire for smaller families.

• First Stage: Total population growth rate is low but it is balanced due to high birth rates and high death rates

• Second Stage: Total population growth rate rises as death rates fall due to improvements in health care and sanitation. Birth rates remain high

• Third Stage: Total population is high, but it is balanced by a low birth rate and a low death rate. Birth control is widely available and there is a desire for smaller families.

What’s special about Iran

• While Iran's population grew at a rate of more than 3% per year between 1956 and 1986, the growth rate began to decline in the late 1980s and early 1990s after the government initiated a major population control program. By 2007 the growth rate had declined to 0.7 percent per year, with a birth rate of 17 per 1,000 persons and a death rate of 6 per 1,000.

• Iran has experienced one of the most successful family planning programs in the developing world, with 64 percent decline in total fertility rate (TFR) between 1986 and 2000.

• Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data in 2000 indicated a TFR of 2.0 births per women and 74 percent contraceptive use among married women.

• Iran, officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is ruled under the law of Islam and has a theocratic constitution.

• While Iran's population grew at a rate of more than 3% per year between 1956 and 1986, the growth rate began to decline in the late 1980s and early 1990s after the government initiated a major population control program. By 2007 the growth rate had declined to 0.7 percent per year, with a birth rate of 17 per 1,000 persons and a death rate of 6 per 1,000.

• Iran has experienced one of the most successful family planning programs in the developing world, with 64 percent decline in total fertility rate (TFR) between 1986 and 2000.

• Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data in 2000 indicated a TFR of 2.0 births per women and 74 percent contraceptive use among married women.

• Iran, officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is ruled under the law of Islam and has a theocratic constitution.

Iran –Demographic Facts

AfganistanIsraelWorldIran

29,835,3907,848,800-77,891,220Population, Total (2011 est.)

2.381.9%1.1%1.2%Population Growth

37.8321.419.318.55Birth Rate per 1,000 people

17.395.28.35.94Death Rate per 1,000 people

5.642.672.521.88Total Fertility Rate

1900-1979Pre-revolutionary Era

• Prevalence of a high crude birth rate of about 45-50 per thousand and, a total fertility rate above 7-8 children per woman

• Moderate mortality decline during the second quarter of the century, while accelerated during 1956-66.

• Demographic Awareness- An informal family planning program in early 1960’s

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• Prevalence of a high crude birth rate of about 45-50 per thousand and, a total fertility rate above 7-8 children per woman

• Moderate mortality decline during the second quarter of the century, while accelerated during 1956-66.

• Demographic Awareness- An informal family planning program in early 1960’s

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Annual Growth Rate (%)

Population Size in millionsyear

>0.31019000.3-0.811-1219261.3-1.814-1519411.8-2.219-2019562.5-2.925-2619662.7-3.1341976

3.3371979

Khomeini Era 1979-1980 and Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988

In the early years after the revolution there were no official population policies in the government’s agenda. New leaders viewed any population program as a Western tool to dominate the ‘‘Third World’’ countries and reduce the number of Muslims.

During the eight-year war with Iraq (1980-1988), the country was aiming for an ‘‘Army of 20 million.’’ Large families were a core revolutionary value; necessary to raise soldiers to defend the country. In addition to higher birth rates:

An influx of refugee immigrants from neighboring countries contributed to a rapid rise in the population growth rate

Improved primary health care resulted in sharp declines in

infant and maternal mortality rates between 1981 and 1986.

In the early years after the revolution there were no official population policies in the government’s agenda. New leaders viewed any population program as a Western tool to dominate the ‘‘Third World’’ countries and reduce the number of Muslims.

During the eight-year war with Iraq (1980-1988), the country was aiming for an ‘‘Army of 20 million.’’ Large families were a core revolutionary value; necessary to raise soldiers to defend the country. In addition to higher birth rates:

An influx of refugee immigrants from neighboring countries contributed to a rapid rise in the population growth rate

Improved primary health care resulted in sharp declines in

infant and maternal mortality rates between 1981 and 1986.

The National Five Year Socioeconomic Development Plans: 1989-1994 and 1994-1999

Motivation: From 1976-1986, Iran's population increased at an average annual rate of 3.4%, and was 49.4 million by the end of the 10-year period.2 As a result, the government faced great demands for food, health care, education and employment.

Motivation: From 1976-1986, Iran's population increased at an average annual rate of 3.4%, and was 49.4 million by the end of the 10-year period.2 As a result, the government faced great demands for food, health care, education and employment.

The National Five Year Socioeconomic Development Plans: 1989-1994 and 1994-1999

In 1989, the government along with the clergy introduced a family planning program with three major goals:•encouraging women to space their pregnancies by 3-4 years,• discouraging pregnancy among women younger than 18 and older than 35, •limiting family size to three children

In 1989, the government along with the clergy introduced a family planning program with three major goals:•encouraging women to space their pregnancies by 3-4 years,• discouraging pregnancy among women younger than 18 and older than 35, •limiting family size to three children

The National Five Year Socioeconomic Development Plans: 1989-1994 and 1994-1999

To accomplish these objectives, the government developed the following strategies:Organizing educational programs on population issues for the general public Increasing married couples access to free contraceptivesDeveloping the model of service delivery in urban and rural areas.Implementation of disincentives policies for families with more than three children: For example banning public benefits, such as paid maternity leave and social welfare subsidies to low-income women, for the birth of any child after the third. Government officials and religious leaders* have promoted family planning and smaller familiesVoluntary sterilization for Males an d Females (Vasectomy and Tubectomy)

* Despite the strong opposition to abortion, clerics have endorsed the government's family planning program.

To accomplish these objectives, the government developed the following strategies:Organizing educational programs on population issues for the general public Increasing married couples access to free contraceptivesDeveloping the model of service delivery in urban and rural areas.Implementation of disincentives policies for families with more than three children: For example banning public benefits, such as paid maternity leave and social welfare subsidies to low-income women, for the birth of any child after the third. Government officials and religious leaders* have promoted family planning and smaller familiesVoluntary sterilization for Males an d Females (Vasectomy and Tubectomy)

* Despite the strong opposition to abortion, clerics have endorsed the government's family planning program.

Other Causes for the Decrease in the Population Growth Rate

• Increased educational opportunities for women: From 1976-1986, the female literacy rate almost doubled in both rural and urban areas.

• Increased job opportunities for women: Parents are expressing greater comfort with having their daughters work (in gender-segregated environments), and the government is promoting greater social participation for women

• Constant decline in Infant Mortality: Contraception probably could not have succeeded if there had not been a large decline in infant mortality. Between 1976 and 1991, infant mortality decreased from a rate of 112 infant deaths per 1000 live births to a rate of 63.2, a decline of almost 50%.

• Economic Factors: Iran's continued dependency on oil revenues as the source of government funds, devaluations of the Iranian currency, removal of a number of subsidies on imported goods have all placed significant economic pressures on the Iranian family and have reduced their purchasing power.

In years to come…

Sources Fertility, Contraceptive Use and Family Planning Program Activity in the Islamic Republic of Iran , by

Akbar Aghajanian (1999)

Case study: fertility decline in Iran, by Farnaz Vahidnia (2007)

Prospects for Development and Population Growth in Iran, by Samuel S. Lieberman (1979)

The Fertility Transition in Iran, by Marie Ladier-Louladi (1997)

US Census http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php

UN Data Base http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm and http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm

World Bank http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=3&id=4

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