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Carroll IndependentSchool District

Demographic Report

Fall 2017

Economic Conditions – DFW Area (October 2017)

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UnemploymentRate

-0.8%

77,523 new jobsNational rate 1.2%

Job Growth

2.2%2,651 more

starts than 3Q16

AnnualHome Starts

32,086

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 3.9%Texas 3.5%

DFW MSA 3.0%Southlake 2.6%

Local Economic Conditions

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• Tesla opened a 4565 sq. ft. gallery in Southlake Town Center on September 23

• Allows customers to come in and learn about the unique electric car features

• Test drives are provided and customers can communication with Tesla employees to purchase a car

• 10-spot Supercharger stations are to open in the west parking lot near Carroll Ave

• Section of the SH 121 project between Star and Stripes Way in Grapevine and the Business 121 split in Lewisville expected to be complete December 2017

• Widens the highway to 10 lanes between FM 2499/Grapevine Mills Blvd and the Sam Rayburn Tollway/Business 121 split

• Cost- $58.6 M• Once complete the DFW community could experience a

positive net benefit bringing $26.8 M annually and creating almost 300 jobs

Source: City of Southlake & Community Impact

Carroll ISD Home SalesJanuary – November 2017 Sales by Transaction Type

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• The district has had 721 home sales to date in 2017, and roughly 12% were of new homes

• The average sale price in 2017 for a new home is $844,151

• The average sale price in 2017 for an existing home is $661,425

Source: Metrostudy and Tarrant County Deed Transactions

New Home Sale12%

REO sale2%

Foreclosure2%

Regular Resale84%

YTD 2017Home Sales

by Type

CISD Historical Home Price Analysis

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Avg New Home Avg Existing Home2010 $662,604 $487,572 2011 $656,696 $498,091 2012 $655,609 $516,170 2013 $699,735 $546,311 2014 $691,015 $599,902 2015 $739,141 $616,352 2016 $816,395 $640,434

YTD 2017 $844,151 $661,425

• The average new home sale price within Carroll ISD has risen 27%, or $181,547 since 2010

• The average existing home price has risen 36% or $173,853 since 2010

• The Dallas-Fort Worth MSA is estimated to be nearly 20% overvalued in the 3rd

quarter of 2017

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017

Avg New vs Existing Home Sale Price, 2010 - 2017

Avg New Home Avg Existing Home

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3Q17

6Source: Metrostudy

* Based on additional research by TD staff

37 Irving ISD 255 204 525 54838 Carroll ISD* 172 202 283 57839 Mesquite ISD 231 198 27 4,550

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future1 Frisco ISD 2,552 2,681 4,067 6,3252 Prosper ISD 2,804 2,524 5,703 25,9703 Denton ISD 2,014 1,963 2,569 20,5964 Northwest ISD 1,976 1,863 2,074 24,2775 Dallas ISD 1,939 1,739 2,088 7,2986 Lewisville ISD 1,141 1,277 1,493 4,7497 Rockwall ISD 943 1,005 1,917 8,0538 Little Elm ISD 1,465 1,002 1,383 3,5869 McKinney ISD 847 827 1,504 8,253

10 Wylie ISD 865 801 1,006 4,31311 Keller ISD 690 795 826 1,96112 Eagle Mt.-Saginaw ISD 1,081 776 1,417 19,10713 Mansfield ISD 616 710 857 7,13314 Forney ISD 916 684 1,530 14,32215 Allen ISD 683 634 1,094 1,71316 Crowley ISD 599 632 1,049 12,55117 Garland ISD 494 604 453 4,10218 Midlothian ISD 686 582 1,402 19,47719 Fort Worth ISD 567 476 964 4,49920 Waxahachie ISD 497 476 910 9,453

New Housing Activity

• Carroll ISD is on pace to start more than 200 homes in 2017• With 145 homes closed in the first three quarters, CISD is likely to close approx.

190 homes in 2017• Carroll ISD’s new home inventory is slightly high at 9 month’s supply due to

longer build times and labor constraints

Carroll ISD

7Source: Metrostudy

Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20171Q 17 34 58 34 68 46 1Q 10 20 26 24 38 582Q 22 43 44 47 49 51 2Q 14 19 49 52 72 433Q 20 48 46 77 50 60 3Q 21 35 51 56 56 444Q 27 46 57 52 45 4Q 16 48 29 45 57

Total 86 171 205 210 212 157 Total 61 122 155 177 223 145

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3Q17

Starts Closings Housing Inventory

Annual Closings Distribution

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Top 5 Subdivisions - 3Q17 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings VDL Future

1CARILLON RESIDENTIAL (SOUTHLAKE) 66 44 0

2 CREEKVIEW ADDITION (KELLER) 19 10 03 SHADY OAKS (SOUTHLAKE) 17 12 04 GRANADA (WESTLAKE) 17 44 05 SOUTHLAKE GLEN 15 13 0

TOTALS 134 123 0

Vacant Developed Lots

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Top 5 Subdivisions - 3Q17 (Ranked by remaining VDL)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings VDL Future

1CARILLON RESIDENTIAL (SOUTHLAKE) 66 44 0

2 GRANADA (WESTLAKE) 17 44 03 ESTATES OF QUAIL HOLLOW 0 41 184 SOUTHLAKE MEADOWS 7 36 45

5WINDING CREEK ADDN (SOUTHLAKE) 7 29 0

TOTALS 97 194 63

Future Lots

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Top 5 Subdivisions - 3Q17 (Ranked by Future Inventory)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings VDL Future

1 ENTRADA (WESTLAKE) 0 0 207

2SOUTHLAKE TOWN SQ/GARDEN DIST. TOWNHOMES 6 21 66

3 CRESCENT HEIGHTS 0 0 524 SOUTHLAKE MEADOWS 7 36 455 WILLIAMSBURG ESTATES 0 0 33

TOTALS 13 57 403

District Housing Overview

Future Subdivision Active Subdivision

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• Carroll ISD has appx. 280 lots available to build on

• The district has about 570 future lots planned

Housing Activity by Elem Zone

Highest activity in the category

Second highest activity in the category

Third highest activity in the category

Elementary Zone Annual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings UC Inventory VDL Future Lots

CARROLL 27 13 40 6 16 21 30 0JOHNSON 66 21 96 21 56 63 125 138OLD UNION 12 4 10 2 9 18 33 8ROCKENBAUGH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0WALNUT GROVE 67 22 56 15 53 64 157 358

Grand Total 172 60 202 44 134 166 345 504

Active SubdivisionCarillon Southlake

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Carillon Southlake• 403 total lots• 327 homes occupied• 26 homes under construction• 44 vacant developed lots• Estimated to be built out by the end of 2018• $540 K-$1 M+• Current student yield: 0.75 • Johnson Elementary

Active SubdivisionsCreekview Addition

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Creekview Addition• 106 total lots• 83 homes occupied• 9 homes under construction• 10 vacant developed lots• Estimated to be built out by end of 2018• $445K-$530K• Current student yield: 0.95• Carroll Elementary

Active SubdivisionsGranada

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Keller ISD

Granada • 84 total lots• 23 occupied• 14 homes under construction• 44 vacant developed lots• Phase 2 (42 lots) delivered

mid-December 2016• 13 lots in Keller ISD• $1.2 M+• Current student yield: 0.48• Walnut Grove Elementary

Northwest ISD

Active SubdivisionSouthlake Meadows

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Southlake Meadows• 105 total lots• 7 occupied• 45 futures• 16 under construction• 36 vacant developed lots• Phase 2 (36 lots) expected lot

delivery mid 2018• Phase 3 (9 lots) Preliminary

Plat approved March 2016 • No timeline for development

• Current student yield: 0.43• $907K+• Walnut Grove Elementary

Active SubdivisionShady Oaks

Shady Oaks• 148 total lots• 122 homes occupied• 8 homes under construction• 12 vacant developed lots• Building appx. 12 homes per year• Estimated to be built out by end of 2018• $1.3 M+• Current student yield: 1.3 • Walnut Grove Elementary

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Active SubdivisionsMoss Farms & Shady Lane

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Moss Farms• 12 total lots• 2 under construction• 10 vacant developed lots• No current students• $1.6M+• Johnson Elementary

Shady Lane• 15 total lots• 3 under construction• 12 vacant developed lots• Building appx. 5 homes per year• $1.3M+• Johnson Elementary

Active SubdivisionEstates of Quail Hollow

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Estates of Quail Hollow• 92 total lots

• 59 lots are in Carroll ISD• 33 fall in Keller ISD

• Phase 1 (36 lots) was delivered in late 2017 with homebuilding underway

• Phase 2A (16 lots) & 2B (24 lots) have no estimated start date

• $750K+• Walnut Grove Elementary

Keller ISD

Future SubdivisionEntrada Westlake

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Northwest ISD

Keller ISD

Entrada Westlake• Future mixed use development • 207 total future lots in CISD• Groundwork and infrastructure

completed by February 2018• Building estimated to begin early 2018• 12 lots fall in Northwest ISD• Walnut Grove Elementary

Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

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• Carroll ISD will reach more than 8,600 students by the fall of 2019 • 5 year growth = 614 students• 2022/23 enrollment = 8,983• 10 year growth = 1,005 students• 2027/28 enrollment = 9,374

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal

Growth%

Growth2013/14 110 457 474 523 529 560 596 634 630 700 686 624 665 624 7,8122014/15 123 439 513 504 549 583 586 614 665 640 708 676 618 666 7,884 72 0.9%2015/16 162 476 504 549 541 579 612 628 642 691 663 722 673 626 8,068 184 2.3%2016/17 195 474 510 540 577 587 616 659 634 670 706 659 711 670 8,208 140 1.7%2017/18 199 492 530 540 593 637 632 643 690 672 682 708 637 714 8,369 161 2.0%2018/19 199 517 542 560 575 628 693 672 667 714 685 677 694 634 8,457 88 1.1%2019/20 199 523 560 583 595 613 663 744 690 693 729 681 662 687 8,622 165 2.0%2020/21 199 517 573 598 623 633 663 702 762 712 708 729 664 657 8,740 118 1.4%2021/22 199 514 562 599 626 661 681 704 723 791 724 704 712 659 8,859 119 1.4%2022/23 199 522 558 586 629 666 710 726 723 749 804 718 687 706 8,983 124 1.4%2023/24 199 525 569 587 615 668 709 754 749 749 762 804 701 682 9,073 90 1.0%2024/25 199 526 570 596 615 653 710 753 776 776 768 762 785 694 9,183 110 1.2%2025/26 199 532 572 597 625 655 694 755 775 805 792 768 744 778 9,291 108 1.2%2026/27 199 528 578 600 626 663 697 737 778 803 820 792 750 737 9,308 17 0.2%2027/28 199 540 572 605 629 666 704 740 758 807 818 820 773 743 9,374 66 0.7%

One Year Forecast By Campus and Grade

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Current 2018/19 Enrollment Projections by GradeCampus Capacity 2017/18 EE/PK KG 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Change

Carroll Elementary 639 604 70 108 110 102 110 116 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 616 12Walnut Grove Elementary 721 702 0 122 133 111 160 158 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 684 -18Johnson Elementary 560 670 9 125 134 157 135 154 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 714 44Old Union Elementary 441 472 37 81 87 94 78 96 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 473 1Rockenbaugh Elementaty 577 543 83 81 78 96 92 104 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 534 -9ELEMENTARY TOTALS 2,938 2,991 199 517 542 560 575 628 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,021 30Durham Intermediate 849 687 0 0 0 0 0 0 398 375 0 0 0 0 0 0 773 86Eubanks Intermediate 688 588 0 0 0 0 0 0 295 297 0 0 0 0 0 0 592 4INTERMEDIATE TOTALS 1,537 1,275 0 0 0 0 0 0 693 672 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,365 90Carroll Middle School 840 734 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 345 387 0 0 0 0 732 -2Dawson Middle School 846 628 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 322 327 0 0 0 0 649 21MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 1,686 1,362 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 667 714 0 0 0 0 1,381 19Carroll High School 1,555 1,390 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 685 677 0 0 1,362 -28Carroll Senior High 1,544 1,351 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 694 634 1,328 -23HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 3,099 2,741 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 685 677 694 634 2,690 -51TOTAL ENROLLMENT 9,260 8,369 199 517 542 560 575 628 693 672 667 714 685 677 694 634 8,457 88

Ten Year ForecastBy Campus

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*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity

HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Campus Capacity 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28Carroll Elementary 639 585 604 616 636 650 667 665 667 673 682 685 695Walnut Grove Elementary 721 667 702 684 702 714 751 744 735 719 714 708 712Johnson Elementary 560 619 670 714 727 752 731 722 723 728 735 740 739Old Union Elementary 441 463 472 473 476 489 475 471 467 464 470 476 479Rockenbaugh Elementary 577 549 543 534 532 538 537 558 571 575 579 585 586ELEMENTARY TOTALS 2,938 2,883 2,991 3,021 3,073 3,143 3,161 3,160 3,163 3,159 3,180 3,194 3,211Elementary Absolute Change 72 108 30 52 70 18 -1 3 -4 21 14 17Elementary Percent Change 2.56% 3.75% 1.00% 1.72% 2.28% 0.57% -0.03% 0.09% -0.13% 0.66% 0.44% 0.53%Durham Intermediate 849 673 687 773 807 789 799 832 865 853 839 830 831Eubanks Intermediate 688 602 588 592 600 576 586 604 598 610 610 604 613INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL TOTALS 1,537 1,275 1,275 1,365 1,407 1,365 1,385 1,436 1,463 1,463 1,449 1,434 1,444Intermed. Absolute Growth 35 0 90 42 -42 20 51 27 0 -14 -15 10Intermed. Percent Change 2.82% 0.00% 7.06% 3.08% -2.99% 1.47% 3.68% 1.88% 0.00% -0.96% -1.04% 0.70%Carroll Middle School 840 688 734 732 746 844 872 855 867 901 937 925 909Dawson Middle School 846 616 628 649 637 630 642 617 631 651 643 656 656MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 1,686 1,304 1,362 1,381 1,383 1,474 1,514 1,472 1,498 1,552 1,580 1,581 1,565Middle Absolute Growth -29 58 19 2 91 40 -42 26 54 28 1 -16Middle School Percent Change -2.18% 4.45% 1.40% 0.14% 6.58% 2.71% -2.77% 1.77% 3.60% 1.80% 0.06% -1.01%Carroll High School 1,555 1,365 1,390 1,362 1,410 1,437 1,428 1,522 1,566 1,530 1,560 1,612 1,638Carroll Senior High School 1,544 1,381 1,351 1,328 1,349 1,321 1,371 1,393 1,383 1,479 1,522 1,487 1,516HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 3,099 2,746 2,741 2,690 2,759 2,758 2,799 2,915 2,949 3,009 3,082 3,099 3,154High School Absolute Growth 62 -5 -51 69 -1 41 116 34 60 73 17 55High School Percent Change 2.31% -0.18% -1.86% 2.57% -0.04% 1.49% 4.14% 1.17% 2.03% 2.43% 0.55% 1.77%DISTRICT TOTALS 9,260 8,208 8,369 8,457 8,622 8,740 8,859 8,983 9,073 9,183 9,291 9,308 9,374District Absolute Growth 140 161 88 165 118 119 124 90 110 108 17 66District Percent Change 1.74% 1.96% 1.05% 1.95% 1.37% 1.36% 1.40% 1.00% 1.21% 1.18% 0.18% 0.71%

Summary

• Southlake’s unemployment rate is below 3.0%.

• Roughly 12% of district home sales are of new homes.

• The average new home sale price in Carroll ISD is more than $840,000.

• More than 70% of the district’s future housing developments fall within Walnut Grove Elementary zone due to activity within Entrada (Westlake).

• Within Carroll ISD, there are approx. 500 future lots planned.

• CISD can expect an increase of approximately 615 students during the next 5 years.

• 2022/23 enrollment projection 8,983.

• CISD is projected to have nearly 9,400 students for the 2027/28 school year.

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