carnegie-mellon university pittsburgh, pa university ...presentations.dubberly.com/cmu2018.pdf ·...

Hugh DubberlyDubberly Design Offi ce

Carnegie-Mellon University Pittsburgh, PAUniversity Lecture Series / HCII Seminar Series November 2, 2018

How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice

Presentation posted atpresentations.dubberly.com/cmu2018.pdf

values

designer producttools

context

values

stakeholders

2Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018

Design practice is continually evolving,across several dimensions, including:

– where we design —the context of designing

– what we design —the “product” of designing

– how we design —the methods which entail designingand the tools used in designing

– who designs —stakeholders: producers, consumers, sponsors

– why we design —goals, values, language

1980Tools

1995Medium

2015Material

Time

Capa

bilit

y


The most obvious change may beincorporating computers in how we design.


— Paul Rand, 1990, (personal communication)

*Science and Technology Studies (STS) provides insight into how knowledge is produced.Many ideas developed in STS apply to design practice and can describe how artifacts and other “products of design” are produced. Design Studies might take up this subject more fully, or perhaps a new discipline is needed: Design and Technology Studies (DTS).

“For designers,the computer is just a tool, like the pencil.”

Conventional wisdom* has been

1980Tools

1995Medium

2015Material

Time

Capa

bilit

y

Analysis

Collaboration

Management

Synthesis Production


Tool augmenting the design process – Analysis,

e.g., Christopher Alexander’s decomposition of problems

– Synthesis,e.g., Fractals, cellular automata, genetic algorithms, neural nets

– Production,e.g., AutoCAD, PageMaker, Illustrator, Photoshop, Maya

– Management,i.e., budgets, schedules, and rational, e.g., Horst Rittel’s IBIS

– Collaboration,e.g., Nicholas Negroponte’s Architecture Machine

1980Tools

1995Medium

2015Material

Time

Capa

bilit

y

Portals Networks Platforms


Medium connecting the “products of design” with users – Portals,

i.e., into games, apps, information spaces, dynamic environments

– Networks,e.g., The Well, CompuServe, Prodigy, AOL, MSN, the Internet

– Platforms for publishing,e.g., DNS enabling HFS, CMS such as WordPress etc.

1980Tools

1995Medium

2015Material

Time

Capa

bilit

y


Material to be shaped into “products of design” – Information structures,

e.g., VideoWorks-Director-Flash, HyperCard, HTML-CSS

– Process structures,i.e., code, e.g., Seymour Papert’s Logo, JS, Processing, Jupyter

– Data visualizations,e.g., D3.js, Bret Victor’s “explorable explanations”

– Data-dependent services,e.g., recommendations, like search, also bought, newsfeeds


The design of data-dependent services is a huge shift in howand what we design.


FromPhysical artifacts— objects

ToAdaptive systems— ecologies

Product Design

Focus Groups

Human Factors

Usability Studies

Interaction Design

Data-driven Design

Service Design

Model-driven Design

Thermostat

presence detected by

sets

68º

Home Owners

Radius (distance from house)

Air Temperature

Disturbances(changes in weather)

Efficiency

Goals

Comfort

Cloud Services:- alerts- reporting- weather- home system integration

changes setpoints

ScheduleMobile App

Cold weather draws heat fromthe house.

Hot weather heats the house.

Geofence

connects to

Using a mobile app, homeowners can create a virtual fence around their home. The GPS location in their phone signals residents’ presence or absence, triggering home/away settings.

connects by WiFi to

connec

ts to

conn

ects

to

Cloud

68ºAway

Furnace

sign

al

homem t w t f ss

away

warm air cool air

sign

al

Air Conditioner

Router AmazonEcho

or similar devices

Air Handler(fans)


A smart thermostat gathers together a larger network of products, services, people, and their interactions.

AC

Furnace (in sub-floor)

Nest Thermostat

Nest Smoke + CO Alarm

Nest Smoke + CO Alarm Nest Smoke + CO Alarm

Air Intake

Air Output

Air Output

Air Output

Air OutputAir OutputAir Output

WaterHeater

Refrigerator

Clean water in

Water company keeps track of usage and bills accordingly.

Dishwasher

Sprinkler

Sprinkler

Sprinkler

Sprinkler

SprinklerSprinkler

SinkWasher

Dirty water out

Toilet

Sink

Tub/Shower

Sprinkler Control Panel

Sprinkler

Sprinkler

Sprinkler

Dryer(could beelectric)

Oven / Range

Gas Fireplace

Gas Meter

Gas company keeps track of usage and bills accordingly.

Nest Cam

Nest Cam

Baby Cam

Window shadeWindow shadeWindow shadeWindow shadeWindow shadeWindow shadeWindow shade

Window shade

Window shade Window shade

Window shade Window shade Window shade Window shade Window shade Window shade

Door Sensor

Door Sensor

Door Sensor

Window SensorWindow SensorWindow SensorWindow SensorWindow SensorWindow SensorWindow Sensor

Window Sensor

Window Sensor

Window Sensor Window Sensor Window Sensor Window Sensor Window Sensor Window Sensor

Motion Sensor

Control Panel

Control PanelHub(Cellular

or connectedto landline)

Heat Sensor

Heat Sensor

Motion Sensor

Motion Sensor

RheemWaterHeater

SamsungRefrigerator

BoschDishwasher

LG Washer

GE Oven

LG Dryer

Crock-PotSamsung TV (has apps)

Sonos home theatre

Pioneer Speakers

Pioneer Speakers

Apple Wireless RouterMotorola Cable Modem

Comcast Cable boxApple TV set top boxSamsung Blu-Ray / DVD playerXbox One gaming console

Apple Desktopand/or laptopand/or tablet

Epson Printer

Internet Connection

Could be Cable / DSL / Satellite / Fiber / etc.ISP company keeps track of usagebut bills a pre-determined flat rate.

Apple Smartphone

GoPro

94Fifty basketballDJI Phantom 3 drone

Platform:

Apple CarPlayAndroid AutoFord AppLink

Sensors:

Back up cameraLane swerveBrakingHeatingCoolingetc.Over 200 in all

Vehicle:

Toyota PriusHybrid

Specialized Turboelectric bicycle

Boosted boardmotorized skateboard

LightLight

Light

Light

Light

Light

Light

Light

Light

Switch

Switch

LightLight

Light Light

Light

Light

Switch

Switch

Switch

Switch

Outlet

OutletOutlet

Outlet

OutletOutlet

Outlet

Outlet

Switch

Outlet Outlet

OutletSwitchOutletOutlet

Outlet

OutletSwitch Outlet

Outlet Outlet

Outlet

Outlet

Switch

Outlet

Outlet

Outlet

Electrical Panel

Electric company keeps track of usage and bills accordingly.

Outlet

Switch

Apple Watchor Fitbit

or Jawbone

Speck Air Quality Monitor



SmartSense Multi-sensor

Neatmo Weather Station

WithingsSmart Scale

SmartThings Hub

Roomba Vacuum

Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018

The HVAC network is part of an even larger home ecology.


“It seems to me that the notion of machine that was current in the course of the Industrial Revolution — and which we might have inherited — is a notion, essentially, of a machine without goal, it had no goal ‘of ’, it had a goal ‘for’.

And this gradually developed into the notion of machines with goals ‘of ’, like thermostats, which I might begin to object to because they might compete with me.

Now we’ve got the notion of a machine with an underspecifi ed goal, the system that evolves. Th is is a new notion, nothing like the notion of machines that was current in the Industrial Revolution, absolutely nothing like it. It is, if you like, a much more biological notion, maybe I’m wrong to call such a thing a machine; I gave that label to it because I like to realise things as artifacts, but you might not call the system a machine, you might call it something else.”

— Gordon Pask, 1972 (See Usman Haque, 2007)


— Jodi Forlizzi, HCII, CMU, 2008

“...networks of products, services, technology, people, and collective and collaborative interaction are generating value for the populations they serve.”

We might call it a “product-service ecology”.

3.2

open

close 3.1

1.2

2.2

2.1

Through a system of gears and pulleys the speed of the steam engine is transferred to the gear at the base of the flyball governor— causing it to rotate. At low speed, the flyweights remain close to the spinning central axis As speed increases, the flyweights swing outward, and upward. At low speed, the scissor mechanism pushes the lever arm up At high speed the scissor mechanism pulls the lever arm down At low speed, the lever arm pushes the throttle valve open; increasing the flow of steam

0

1.1

1.2

2.1

2.2

3.1

1.1

0


— Kevin Kelly, Out of Control, 2000

“Th ere could not have been an industrial revolution without a parallel (though hidden) information revolution at the same time, launched by the rapid spread of the automatic feedback system.”

Information has been critical from the beginning.

James Watt’s fl y-ball governor, 1788.


Yet only recently, have we begun to talk about data and its role in designing and as a material.


https://stopdesign.com/archive/2009/03/20/goodbye-google.html

“When a company is fi lled with engineers,...data eventually becomes a crutch for every decision,...

Yes, it’s true that a team at Google couldn’t decide between two blues, so they’re testing 41 shades between each blue to see which one performs better....

I can’t operate in an environment like that.”

A-B testing has become the norm on large services.

— Douglas Bowman, 2009


— Irene Au, 2012, personal communications

“It turns out, the diff erence between one shade of blue and another,at the scale of Google search,can be worth millions of dollars per year.”

A lot is at stake — personal values and shareholder value.


— Elizabeth Churchill et al., Designing with Data: Improving the User Experience with A/B Testing, 2017

“Design is and always has been informed by data....

By harnessing and leveraging the power of data at scale...new ways to understand people, ‘users,’ are emerging.”

A Model of Data-driven Design

1. Product2. Smart product

Software

3. Smart, connected product

Remotedevices

Software

4. Product system

Planters

Combineharvesters

Tillers

Tractors

FarmEquipment

System

Remotedevices

Software

5. Systems of systems

IrrigationSystem

Irrigation nodes

Irrigationapplication

Fieldsensors

Weather DataSystem

Weather dataapplication

Weather forecastsWeather maps

Rain, humidity,temperature sensors

FarmManagement

System

SeedOptimization

SystemSeed database

Farm performancedatabase

Seed optimizationapplication

Planters

Combineharvesters

Tillers

Tractors

FarmEquipment

System

Remotedevices

Software


“...smart, connected products are transforming competition”and “redefi ning industry boundaries”

— Michael Porter, HBR, 2014


“Capabilities of Smart, Connected Products”

— Michael Porter, HBR, 2014

Ad Words Buyer CRM System Training Competitive Info Offers

behavior monitored by patterns extracted


An exemplar of Porter’s “optimization” capabilityis Google’s CRM system.

Google CRM (GRM) is a sort of machine driving ad-words revenue.It tracks buyer behavior and responds to changes with “encouragement”.It has the goal of “regulating” buyer behavior.Human managers still introduce new offers,but the system learns and operates largely on its own.


How can we reconcile the Churchill and Porter models?

Time

Capa

bilit

y


A model of Data-dependent Services

New Kind of Nature

Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware

State of nature


Example: An individual managing diabetes

Patient

Metabolism

New Kind of Nature


State of nature


State of natureMetabolism happens on its own.The individual is unaware.(But the body is aware.)

Patient

Health

New Kind of Nature

Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware — refl ecting, possible sensing

State of nature


Data awareThe individual learns diet + exercise affectweight, blood glucose, and general health.

Patient

DietExercise

gains carbsburns carbs

Health

New Kind of Nature

Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informed — sensing, refl ecting, possible acting, “open loop”Data aware

State of nature


Data informedThe individual counts carbs and steps;choices start to affect behavior.

Drop of blood

Lancing device Patient

DietExercise

Insulin and

syringe and needle

uses lancing device to take

blood from finger prick

obtains


manually injects

manually prepares

displays readings

BG Meter

BG strips

BG lancets

installed in

placed onto

inserted into

Health

New Kind of Nature

Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData driven — sensing, refl ecting, acting on feedback (human closes the loop)Data informedData aware

State of nature


Data drivenMeasuring BG drives insulin dosing,reducing “highs” and avoiding “lows”.

Transmitter

Sensor & patch Patient

DietExercise

Insulin pump

Mobile phone

penetrates body fat

adheres to skin

holds


manually injects

manually prepares

displays readings

communicates with

Health

New Kind of Nature

Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animated — collecting data history, recognizing patterns, predicting outcomesData drivenData informedData aware

State of nature


Model driven / data animatedA CGM recognizes “trends”and provides prompts and warnings.

Insulin pump

Infusion set cannula

& tubing

Mobile phone

Transmitter


DietExercise

penetrates body fat

adheres to skin

delivers

insulin via

communicates with

penetrates body fat

adheres to skin

holds


manually control with pump buttons

Health

displays readings

New Kind of Nature

Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomous — closed loop with minimal human inputsModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware

State of nature


Semi-autonomousCGM connects to a pump;person still inputs carbs and exercise.

Insulin pump


& tubing

Wearable

Transmitter


DietExercise

penetrates body fat

adheres to skin

delivers

insulin via

penetrates body fat

adheres to skin

holds

gains carbsburns carbsother sensing

communicates with

Health

communicates with

New Kind of Nature

Autonomous / self-driving — closed loop, no human inputSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware

State of nature


Autonomous / self-drivingA true “artifi cial pancreas”; the system measures carbs + exercise. (We’re not here, yet.)

Insulin pump


& tubing

Wearable

Transmitter


DietExercise

penetrates body fat

adheres to skin

delivers

insulin via

penetrates body fat

adheres to skin

holds

gains carbsburns carbsother sensing

communicates with

Health

communicates with

Metabolism

New Kind of Nature


State of nature

Dubberly Design Office · How the Information Revolution is Changing Design Practice · November 2, 2018

New Kind of NatureMetabolism happens on its own.The individual is unaware. (But the system is “aware”.)


Example: An organization managing a population of individuals with diabetes

Patient HCP

New Kind of Nature


State of nature


State of natureIndividuals are treated in isolation;no concept of “patient population”.

Patient HCP Check List

Cost? Risk?

New Kind of Nature

Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware — refl ecting, possible sensing

State of nature


Data awareHCPs establish standards of care; fees paid for services. Managing risks and costs become a concern.

Patient

Payer

Database

HCP Check List

New Kind of Nature

Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informed — sensing, refl ecting, possible acting, “open loop”Data aware

State of nature


Data informedSystematic measurement of outcomes begins;payers compare organizational performance.

Patient HCP

$

Check List

Payer

Database

New Kind of Nature

Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData driven — sensing, refl ecting, acting on feedback (human closes the loop)Data informedData aware

State of nature


Data driven“Pay-for-performance” begins (feedback);“outcomes” begin to drive HCP actions.

Patient

Database

Neural Net

HCP Check List

Payer

New Kind of Nature

Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animated — collecting data history, recognizing patterns, predicting outcomesData drivenData informedData aware

State of nature


Model driven / data animatedHistorical data creates risk models;system refers “high risk” folks to HCPs.

HealthcareManager

PersonalManager

Patient

Database

Neural Net

HCP Check ListSensors

CRM SystemPayer

New Kind of Nature

Autonomous / self-drivingSemi-autonomous — closed loop with minimal human inputsModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware

State of nature


Semi-autonomousHealthcare embraces sensors and CRM;the system interacts directly with patients.

StatePatient

Database

Neural Net

Check List

CRM System

PersonalManager

Sensors

HealthcareManager

Payer

New Kind of Nature

Autonomous / self-driving — closed loop, no human inputSemi-autonomousModel driven / data animatedData drivenData informedData aware

State of nature


Autonomous / self-drivingState (or payers) measure behavior; deviation from norms carries a high cost.

Max Schrems and his 1,200 page Facebook profi le.

New Kind of Nature


State of nature


New Kind of NatureA new balance between freedom and responsibility;Privacy is dead for all but the very wealthy.

New Kind of Nature


State of nature


This model describes organizations and individuals;it serves in the large and the small.


In other words, we are beginning to create “digital twins” —of machines, of people, of organizations, and the whole earth.


Conclusion

Foundation products:

Communications:

Human-machine interactions:

Cloud services:

Patient journeys:

Infrastructure:

Business models:

e.g., CGM, phone, pump, supplies

e.g., Packaging, documentation

i.e., physical + virtual UIs

e.g., patient portal, HCP portal; payer integration

e.g., on-boarding, ordering, training, support, monitoring

e.g., distribution systems, payment systems

e.g., better outcomes, lower costs


Product-service ecologies change what designers design:

Micro-processors:

Operating systems:

Routing systems:

File systems:

Data storage systems:

Data refi neries:

Services:

e.g., 8086, 80286, 80386, etc.

e.g., Windows

e.g., DNS

e.g., HFS, Descartes Festivus

e.g., RDBMS, Hadoop, Bigtable

e.g., Predix, Descartes

e.g., CRM


Product-service ecologies depend on a series of platforms:


Self-driving cars are very nearly real.Are self-driving organizations next?

Internet Research Agency


The fi rst semi-autonomous organizations are already here.

Presentation posted atpresentations.dubberly.com/cmu2018.pdf

hugh@dubberly@DubberlyDesign

Special thanks to Karen BerntsenJodi ForlizziPaul PangaroJohn CainRyan Reposar

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