carl l raish

DSWG - June 25, 2014

2013 Four-CP Response for 2013 Four-CP Response for Transmission- and Distribution-Transmission- and Distribution-

Connected ESIIDs in ERCOT Connected ESIIDs in ERCOT Competitive AreaCompetitive Area

Carl L Raish

2

4 CP Response Methodology

Analysis was limited to ESIIDs in competitive ERCOT areas with ‘BUSIDRRQ’ profile types Transmission charges are based on ESIID-specific load during CP intervals ESIIDs classified by connection at transmission or distribution voltage level

Classified days as CP Days, Near-CP Days and Non-CP Days Near-CP days were iteratively determined

Started with 12 possible days Removed days from list if no response detected for the date Ended up with 7 Near-CP days

Non-CP days were all remaining non-holiday weekdays (June 1 – Sep 30)

Classified ESIIDs based on Weather Sensitivity and Load Factor Weather sensitivity (R2 for week-day use vs average temperature >= 0.6) Load Factor based on week-day afternoon usage (1:00 PM – 6:00 PM) High LF > 0.85 Medium LF > 0.60 Low LF ≤ 0.60

3

4 CP Response Methodology (continued)

ESIIDs were classified into three response categories based on how they modified usage on CP and Near-CP days

Reduced Day Use -- ESIIDs that lowered usage from 9:00 AM – 5:00 PM) on CP/Near-CP days.

Reduced CP Hour Use -- ESIID that lowered usage during 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM on CP/Near-CP days (but did not reduce day use).

Did not respond – All remaining ESIIDS

4


Response Type

Load Factor Category

High Medium Low Total

Reduce Day Use

22 20 26 68

Reduce Peak Hour Use

35 28 18 81

Non-Respond 104 48 18 170

Total 161 96 62 319

Number of Transmission ESIIDs by Response Type

5


Response Type

Load Factor Category

High Medium Low WS* Total

Reduce Day Use

31 376 886 1,293

Reduce Peak Hour Use

206 643 578 1,427

Non-Respond 2,456 3,046 831 1,661 7,994

Total 2,693 4,065 2,295 1,661 10,714

Number of Distribution ESIIDs by Response Type

* WS response and type needs additional analysis

6


Baselines were created at the ESIID-level using Non-CP days (May 1 – Sep 30).

Average of 10 days before and 10 days after the CP/Near-CP day. Baselines were aggregated in groups by response type and load factor

category WS baseline was ERS Regression baseline

Scalar day-of-adjustment applied at the aggregated group level.

Day-of-adjustment window: 0:15 AM – 1:00 PM Baseline energy for the adjustment window was scaled to the actual energy

for the CP/Near-CP day No scalar adjustment was applied to the group with ‘day-use’ response Adjusted and unadjusted baselines are shown on graphs for non-responding

ESIIDs In general these ESIIDs had actual use higher than the baseline on

CP/Near-CP days than the unadjusted baseline If these ESIIDs are included in the overall class performance, their

increased usage would offset reductions by the remaining ESIIDs

7


September 3, 2013 CP day special handling

Load shapes were different … probably related to being the day following the Labor Day holiday.

Tables and graphs show reductions for baselines with and without day-of-adjustment

Reductions based on scalar adjusted baselines reflect the actual load reduction on that day

Reductions based on unadjusted baselines are probably closer to reductions on more normal CP days.

8

15-Minute Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2013

4 CP DaysTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

Response27-Jun-13 90.0 11.8 78.1 93.0 28.9 64.1 132.3 107.8 24.5 315.3 148.5 166.8

31-Jul-13 146.7 10.1 136.6 94.1 16.5 77.6 119.5 88.4 31.1 360.4 115.0 245.4

7-Aug-13 137.5 16.5 120.9 105.6 38.6 67.0 125.6 114.7 10.9 368.7 169.9 198.8

3-Sep-13 103.4 7.3 96.1 77.6 24.8 52.8 26.1 16.3 9.8 207.1 48.4 158.7(No Day of Adj) 105.9 9.8 96.1 111.0 58.2 52.8 114.1 34.0 9.8 331.0 102.0 158.7

TotalHigh Load Factor Medium Load Factor Low Load Factor

Reductions for ERCOT Coincident Peak Interval

Transmission Connected ESIIDs

9


Distribution Connected ESIIDs

4 CP DaysTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

Response27-Jun-13 45.3 17.6 27.7 80.7 54.1 26.7 27.5 17.3 10.2 153.6 89.0 64.6

31-Jul-13 36.8 15.3 21.5 60.4 31.8 28.6 40.8 21.7 19.1 138.0 68.8 69.2

7-Aug-13 45.4 17.8 27.6 84.6 49.6 35.0 47.8 23.7 24.1 177.8 91.1 86.8

3-Sep-13 13.3 6.4 7.0 6.6 -8.9 15.6 15.0 9.5 5.5 35.0 6.9 28.0(No Day of Adj) 17.2 10.2 7.0 13.5 -2.1 15.6 7.5 -64.9 5.5 38.1 -56.8 28.0

High Load Factor Medium Load Factor Low Load Factor

Reductions for ERCOT Coincident Peak Interval

Total

10


Transmission plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

Largest Combined Summer 2013 reduction occurred on August 7

27-Jun-13 315.3 153.6 468.9

31-Jul-13 360.4 138.0 498.4

7-Aug-13 368.7 177.8 546.5

3-Sep-13 331.0 38.1 369.1

4 CP Days Transmission Distribution Total

11

Identify Near-CP Days – June 2013

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

MW

Day of Month

Daily ERCOT Peak Intervals June 2013

4CP @ IE 17:00

Near-CPw/ response

12

Identify Near-CP Days – July 2013

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

MW

Day of Month

Daily ERCOT Peak Intervals July 2013

4CP @ IE 17:00

Near-CPw/ response

Near-CPno response

13

Identify Near-CP Days – August 2013

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

MW

Day of Month

Daily ERCOT Peak Intervals August 20134CP @ IE 17:00

Near-CPw/ response

Near-CPno response

14

Identify Near-CP Days – September 2013

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

MW

Day of Month

Daily ERCOT Peak Intervals September 2013

4CP @ IE 16:45

Near-CPno response

Note: Sep 1, 2013 Sunday, Sep 2 Labor Day

15

15-Minute Reductions on Near Peak Days - 2013

Near CP DaysTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

Response26-Jun-13 36.4 6.1 30.3 40.7 18.3 22.4 105.7 90.7 15.0 182.8 115.1 67.7

28-Jun-13 98.2 17.6 80.6 82.9 34.3 48.6 120.8 103.0 17.8 301.9 154.9 147.0

10-Jul-13 53.4 12.3 41.1 40.0 24.5 15.5 125.9 110.0 15.9 219.3 146.7 72.6

12-Jul-13 39.9 3.1 36.8 67.7 41.8 25.9 114.2 112.0 2.2 221.9 156.9 65.0

1-Aug-13 111.6 9.7 101.9 112.8 35.8 77.1 156.7 133.6 23.1 381.1 179.0 202.0

5-Aug-13 29.2 5.2 23.9 48.9 30.3 18.5 50.3 59.0 -8.6 128.4 94.5 33.8

6-Aug-13 76.7 7.6 69.1 64.6 43.4 21.1 126.1 125.9 0.2 267.4 176.9 90.5

High Load Factor Medium Load Factor Low Load Factor Total

Reductions for ERCOT Daily Peak Interval

Largest Summer 2013 reduction occurred on August 1


16

15-Minute Reductions on Near Peak Days - 2013

Largest Summer 2013 reduction occurred on June 28


Near CP DaysTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

Response26-Jun-13 4.3 3.8 0.5 44.6 30.8 13.8 27.2 14.9 12.3 76.1 49.5 26.5

28-Jun-13 38.3 22.1 16.2 98.0 48.1 50.0 51.2 27.6 23.6 187.5 97.8 89.8

10-Jul-13 16.2 6.5 9.7 34.6 30.0 4.6 1.4 6.3 -4.9 52.2 42.8 9.4

12-Jul-13 20.2 7.8 12.3 47.2 18.2 29.0 40.7 29.7 11.0 108.1 55.7 52.4

1-Aug-13 30.5 16.3 14.2 72.5 34.7 37.8 42.1 16.6 25.5 145.2 67.6 77.5

5-Aug-13 5.1 2.1 2.9 19.5 -3.7 23.2 48.3 22.4 26.0 72.9 20.8 52.1

6-Aug-13 41.5 15.3 26.2 70.9 36.7 34.2 46.3 15.1 31.3 158.8 67.0 91.7

Total

Reductions for ERCOT Daily Peak Interval

High Load Factor Medium Load Factor Low Load Factor

17

15-Minute Reductions on Near CP Days - 2013


26-Jun-13 182.8 76.1 258.9

28-Jun-13 301.9 187.5 489.4

10-Jul-13 219.3 52.2 271.5

12-Jul-13 221.9 108.1 330.0

1-Aug-13 381.1 145.2 526.3

5-Aug-13 128.4 72.9 201.3

6-Aug-13 267.4 158.8 426.2

Near CP Days Transmission Distribution Total

18

Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2013

4 CP DaysTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

Response27-Jun-13 90.5 12.0 78.5 90.3 27.2 63.1 117.4 93.3 24.1 298.2 132.5 165.7

31-Jul-13 146.7 10.1 136.6 94.2 15.1 79.1 128.9 100.4 28.4 369.8 125.7 244.1

7-Aug-13 131.0 15.3 115.7 101.0 34.8 66.2 125.6 114.7 10.9 357.6 164.9 192.7

3-Sep-13 103.3 6.5 96.8 77.9 24.3 53.6 28.5 18.2 10.4 209.7 48.9 160.8(No Day of Adj) 105.8 9.0 96.8 111.3 57.7 53.6 118.8 108.5 10.4 335.9 175.1 160.8


Reductions for Hour Ending 17:00 on Day of ERCOT Coincident Peak


19



4 CP DaysTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

Response27-Jun-13 43.2 16.7 26.5 81.0 52.4 28.6 23.5 11.8 11.8 147.7 80.9 66.8

31-Jul-13 36.8 15.3 21.5 59.5 29.7 29.8 41.9 21.0 20.8 138.1 66.1 72.1

7-Aug-13 47.0 18.2 28.8 81.6 46.6 35.0 47.8 23.7 24.1 176.5 88.5 87.9

3-Sep-13 14.5 8.0 6.5 12.1 -4.8 16.9 11.8 8.6 3.2 38.4 11.8 26.6(No Day of Adj) 18.3 11.9 6.5 19.0 2.1 16.9 4.0 0.9 3.2 41.4 14.8 26.6


Reductions for Hour Ending 17:00 on Day of ERCOT Coincident Peak

20



27-Jun-13 298.2 147.7 445.9

31-Jul-13 369.8 138.1 507.9

7-Aug-13 357.6 176.5 534.1

3-Sep-13 335.9 41.4 377.3

4 CP Days Transmission Distribution Total

Largest Combined Summer 2013 reduction occurred on August 7

21

Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on Near Peak Days - 2013


Near CP DaysTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

Response26-Jun-13 36.7 7.2 29.4 41.7 18.3 24.2 95.7 83.2 12.4 174.0 108.7 66.0

28-Jun-13 71.4 15.0 56.4 40.2 17.6 22.5 113.2 96.1 17.1 224.8 128.7 96.1

10-Jul-13 53.4 12.3 41.1 34.7 18.9 15.8 125.9 110.0 15.9 214.0 141.1 72.9

12-Jul-13 41.6 4.4 37.2 53.4 28.0 25.4 78.5 72.8 5.6 173.4 105.2 68.2

1-Aug-13 112.8 11.9 101.0 96.9 20.8 76.2 145.4 123.1 22.3 355.2 155.7 199.5

5-Aug-13 27.4 5.2 23.9 15.6 -0.7 16.3 53.3 62.2 -8.8 96.3 66.7 31.4

6-Aug-13 72.5 6.0 66.5 52.4 31.3 21.1 119.5 117.9 1.6 244.4 155.2 89.2


Reductions for Hour Ending 17:00

22

Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on Near Peak Days - 2013


Near CP DaysTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

ResponseTotal

ResponsePeak

ResponseDay

Response26-Jun-13 2.6 2.0 0.6 42.4 30.8 11.6 28.9 14.9 14.0 73.9 47.8 26.1

28-Jun-13 38.1 21.8 16.2 103.1 49.4 53.7 58.0 30.3 27.7 199.2 101.5 97.7

10-Jul-13 16.2 6.5 9.7 26.9 24.5 2.4 1.4 6.3 -4.9 44.5 37.3 7.2

12-Jul-13 20.1 8.1 12.0 52.3 20.7 31.7 50.0 31.9 18.1 122.4 60.7 61.7

1-Aug-13 29.6 16.2 13.3 71.6 34.1 37.4 43.3 17.5 25.7 144.4 67.9 76.5

5-Aug-13 4.9 2.1 2.9 18.2 -5.8 24.0 47.7 20.4 27.3 70.8 16.7 54.2

6-Aug-13 41.6 15.4 26.3 70.2 35.7 34.5 48.1 15.0 33.1 159.9 66.0 93.9


Reductions for Hour Ending 17:00

23

Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on Near CP Days - 2013


26-Jun-13 174.0 73.9 247.9

28-Jun-13 224.8 199.2 424.0

10-Jul-13 214.0 44.5 258.5

12-Jul-13 173.4 122.4 295.8

1-Aug-13 355.2 144.4 499.6

5-Aug-13 96.3 70.8 167.1

6-Aug-13 244.4 159.9 404.3

Near CP Days Transmission Distribution Total

24

Reduction Percent by Load Factor - Transmission

Total Reduction

Responders Total Load

Non-Responders Total Load Total Load

Response as Percent of Total Load

Total Reduction



Response as Percent of Total

Load

27-Jun-13 90.5 1,142 1,609 2,751 3.3% 90.3 509 206 715 12.6%

31-Jul-13 146.7 1,135 1,633 2,768 5.3% 94.2 496 209 705 13.4%

7-Aug-13 131.0 1,152 1,636 2,788 4.7% 101.0 516 215 731 13.8%

3-Sep-13 103.3 1,159 1,641 2,800 3.7% 77.9 471 223 694 11.2%(No Day of Adj)

27-Jun-13 117.4 238 11 249 47.2% 298.2 1,889 1,826 3,715 8.0%

31-Jul-13 128.9 219 12 231 55.8% 369.8 1,850 1,854 3,704 10.0%

7-Aug-13 125.6 244 12 256 49.1% 357.6 1,912 1,863 3,775 9.5%

3-Sep-13 28.5 164 13 177 16.1% 209.7 1,794 1,877 3,671 5.7%(No Day of Adj)

High Load Factor MW Medium Load Factor MW

Low Load Factor Total

CP Date

25

Reduction Percent by Load Factor - Distribution

Total Reduction



Response as Percent of Total Load

Total Reduction



Response as Percent of Total

Load

27-Jun-13 43.2 1,142 1,609 2,751 1.6% 81.0 509 206 715 11.3%

31-Jul-13 36.8 1,135 1,633 2,768 1.3% 59.5 496 209 705 8.4%

7-Aug-13 47.0 1,152 1,636 2,788 1.7% 81.6 516 215 731 11.2%

3-Sep-13 14.5 1,159 1,641 2,800 0.5% 12.1 471 223 694 1.7%(No Day of Adj)

27-Jun-13 23.5 238 11 249 9.5% 147.7 1,889 1,826 3,715 4.0%

31-Jul-13 41.9 219 12 231 18.1% 138.1 1,850 1,854 3,704 3.7%

7-Aug-13 47.8 244 12 256 18.7% 176.5 1,912 1,863 3,775 4.7%

3-Sep-13 11.8 164 13 177 6.7% 38.4 1,794 1,877 3,671 1.0%(No Day of Adj)

High Load Factor MW Medium Load Factor MW

Low Load Factor Total

CP Date

26

Percent Reduction by Load Factor - Transmission

4 CP DaysTotal

Reduction

Percent of Total

Reduction

Total Reduction

Percent of Total

Reduction

Total Reduction

Percent of Total

Reduction27-Jun-13 90.5 30.3% 90.3 30.3% 117.4 39.4% 298.2

31-Jul-13 146.7 39.7% 94.2 25.5% 128.9 34.8% 369.8

7-Aug-13 131.0 36.6% 101.0 28.2% 125.6 35.1% 357.6

3-Sep-13 103.3 49.2% 77.9 37.2% 28.5 13.6% 209.7(No Day of Adj)

High Load Factor Medium Load Factor Low Load FactorTotal

Reduction

27

Percent Reduction by Load Factor - Distribution

4 CP DaysTotal

Reduction

Percent of Total

Reduction

Total Reduction

Percent of Total

Reduction

Total Reduction

Percent of Total

Reduction27-Jun-13 43.2 29.2% 81.0 54.8% 23.5 15.9% 147.7

31-Jul-13 36.8 26.6% 59.5 43.1% 41.9 30.3% 138.1

7-Aug-13 47.0 26.6% 81.6 46.3% 47.8 27.1% 176.5

3-Sep-13 14.5 37.7% 12.1 31.6% 11.8 30.7% 38.4(No Day of Adj)

Medium Load Factor Low Load FactorTotal

Reduction

High Load Factor

28

June CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

June 27, 2013

Actual Baseline Reduce


29


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

June 27, 2013



30


Transmission Plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

June 27, 2013


31

July CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

July 31, 2013



32


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

July 31, 2013



33


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

July 31, 2013



34

August CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

August 7, 2013



35


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

August 7, 2013



36



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

August 7, 2013


37

September CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

September 3, 2013

Actual Baseline Reduce Baseline No Adj


38


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

September 3, 2013



39



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

September 3, 2013


40

June CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

June 27, 2013

CP Respond Reduce Day Baseline CP Respond Baseline Reduce Day


41

June CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

June 27, 2013



42

July CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

July 31, 2013



43

July CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

July 31, 2013



44

August CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

August 7, 2013



45

August CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

August 7, 2013



46

September CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

September 3, 2013



47

September CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

MW

Interval

September 3, 2013


48

ON

OFF

Questions?

[email protected] 512/248-3876

carl l raish

Documents

cp daysnoncp days

cpnearcp days

noncp daysnearcp days

normal cp days

cp intervalsesiids

cp daysreduced day use

reduced cp hour use

ws response