car 2013 housing market forceast

87
2013 HOUSING MARKET FORECAST Fall 2012 Real Estate Educator’s Conference Sara Sutachan, Senior Research Analyst October 26, 2012

Post on 19-Oct-2014

1.039 views

Category:

Real Estate


1 download

DESCRIPTION

California Community College Real Estate Educators' Conference, Los Angeles, CA. 2013 Real Estate Economic Forecast presented by Sara Sutachan, Senior Research Fellow, California Association of Realtors.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

2013 HOUSING MARKET FORECASTFall 2012 Real Estate Educator’s Conference

Sara Sutachan, Senior Research Analyst

October 26, 2012

Page 2: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Recent Housing Headlines – Good News 1. NAR Aug 4.82M +9.3% YTY +7.8% MTM

2. US Aug new home sales: 372K, +25.3% YTY

3. Housing Prices on the rise

4. Mortgage rates at historic lows

5. Fed Initiates QE3 – Buying $40B/month in MBS for as long as it takes

6. “Bakersfield shows signs of boomtown again” (LA Times 9-9-12)

Page 3: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

THE ECONOMY`

Page 4: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Gross Domestic Product: Growth is Stalling2011: 1.7%; 2012 Q2: 1.3%, Q3: 2.0%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011 ----

Q1-

10

Q2-

10

Q3-

10

Q4-

10

Q1-

11

Q2-

11

Q3-

11

Q4-

11

Q1-

12

Q2-

12

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $

ANNUAL QTRLY

2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 (-3.4%)

SOURCE: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Page 5: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Unemployment: Cyclical & Structural Heading Down: At 3 year lows

SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

Jan-

90

Jan-

92

Jan-

94

Jan-

96

Jan-

98

Jan-

00

Jan-

02

Jan-

04

Jan-

06

Jan-

08

Jan-

10

Jan-

120%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

CA US

Page 6: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

CA Added ~300k Jobs in Aug-11 to Aug-12

Ja

n-0

8

Ma

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Se

p-0

8

No

v-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ma

r-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Se

p-0

9

No

v-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Ju

l-1

0

Se

p-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

Se

p-1

1

No

v-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

-160000

-110000

-60000

-10000

40000

90000

SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division Month-to-Month Changes

Recession Job Losses: 1.3 millionSince Jan 2010: + 485,000

Page 7: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Job Trends by California Metro Area

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division, LAEDC

July 2012: CA +2.6%, +365.1 thousand Jobs

Annual Percentage Change in Nonfarm Jobs

VenturaModesto

Los AngelesOrange County

BakersfieldOakland

RiversideSacramento

San DiegoFresno

San JoseSan Francisco

Stockton

-2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%

-0.4%1.3%

1.6%2.0%2.1%2.1%

2.3%2.8%2.9%

3.1%3.5%

4.4%6.3%

Page 8: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Professional & Business Services Leading Sector

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Professional & Business Services

SOURCE: CA Employment Development Department

Page 9: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Construction Is Making a Comeback

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Construction

SOURCE: CA Employment Development Department

Page 10: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Manufacturing Stumbling but Worst is Over

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

Manufacturing

SOURCE: CA Employment Development Department

Page 11: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Consumer Confidence – Uneven But Things Are Getting Better

September 2012: 70.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120INDEX, 100=1985

SOURCE: The Conference Board

Page 12: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

CPI – Subdued for Now August 2012: All Items +1.7% YTY; Core +1.9% YTY

Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10% All Items Core

PERCENT CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 13: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

CA Negative - Equity Mortgages

SOURCE: CoreLogic

29.0%

4.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Q4-2009

Q1-2010

Q2-2010

Q3-2010

Q4-2010

Q1-2011

Q2-2011

Q3-2011

Q4-2011

Q1-2012

Q2-2012

Negative Equity Share in CA Near Negative Equity Share in CA

Page 14: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

California Borrowers: 29% Underwater15.6% of CA mortgages over 125% LTV

100%

to

104%

105%

to

109%

110%

to

114%

115%

to

119%

120%

to

124%

125

to 1

49%

150%

to

224%

225%

+

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

3.6% 3.0% 2.6% 2.3% 2.0%

7.3% 7.1%

1.2%

US CA

Loan-To-Value

SOURCE: CoreLogic

Page 15: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

THE LENDING ENVIRONMENT

Page 16: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

CA Housing Affordability at Record Highsbut Still Trails U.S.

Q1

20

05

Q2

20

05

Q3

20

05

Q4

20

05

Q1

20

06

Q2

20

06

Q3

20

06

Q4

20

06

Q1

20

07

Q2

20

07

Q3

20

07

Q4

20

07

Q1

20

08

Q2

20

08

Q3

20

08

Q4

20

08

Q1

20

09

Q2

20

09

Q3

20

09

Q4

20

09

Q1

20

10

Q2

20

10

Q3

20

10

Q4

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q2

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q4

20

11

Q1

20

12

Q2

20

12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% CA US

% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 17: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

Mortgage Rates at 50 Year LowsBut Credit is Tight: “Defensive Lending”

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-120%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

FRM

ARM

Federal Funds

Page 18: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Average Credit Score Increased 26 points since 2005 For Purchase Loans

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*700

705

710

715

720

725

730

735

740

745

AVERAGE FICO PURCHASE LOANS

SOURCE: CoreLogic *2012 through Feb

Page 19: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Fannie & Freddie are the Market

Source: LPS CoreLogic

Page 20: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

THE “G” FORCES

Page 21: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Caution: Fiscal Cliff Ahead

Page 22: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast
Page 23: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast
Page 24: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast
Page 25: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

State & Local Government Finances

Page 26: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast
Page 27: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Future of Fannie and Freddie?

Page 28: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

U.S. Economic Outlook

Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f

US GDP -0.30% -3.50% 3.00% 1.70% 2.00% 2.30%

Nonfarm Job Growth -0.60% -4.40% -0.70% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60%

Unemployment 5.80% 9.30% 9.60% 9.00% 8.20% 8.00%

CPI 3.80% -0.40% 1.60% 3.20% 2.00% 2.10%Real Disposable Income, % Change 0.50% 0.90% 1.80% 1.30% 1.60% 1.60%

Page 29: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

California Economic Outlook

Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f

Nonfarm Job Growth -1.3% -6.0% -1.1% 0.9% 1.6% 1.6%

Unemployment Rate 7.2% 11.3% 12.4% 11.7% 10.7% 9.9%

Population Growth 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9%Real Disposable Income, % Change 1.0% -3.1% 1.8% 1.5% 0.3% 1.0%

Page 30: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

THE CALIFORNIA RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET

Page 31: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

THOUSANDS

C.A.R. Membership Off 50,000+ From Peak

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Home Sales Membership1970-2011

Page 32: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Dollar Volume of Sales Slowly Improving Up 16.5% in 2012, Up 7.0% in 2013

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

$327

$266

$194

$154 $150 $150 $142 $166 $178

$ Volume of Sales Percent Change

% Change$ in Billion

-54%

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 33: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

CA Sales of Existing Detached HomesSeptember 2012 Sales: 484,240 Units, Up 5.6% YTD, - 1.2% YTY

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-120

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

SalesUNITS

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

Page 34: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

REOs; 12.3%

Short Sales; 24.3%

Other Distressed Sales (Not Speci-

fied); 0.4%

Equity Sales; 63.0%

Sep-12

Share of Distressed Sales to Total Sales(California)

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Page 35: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

63.0%

24.3%

12.3%

Equity Sales Short Sale REO

Share of Equity Sales Has Been Trending Upward Since Early 2012

Page 36: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

REO & Short Sales: Bay Area(Percent of Total Sales)

AlamedaContra Costa Marin

NapaSan Mateo

Santa Clara Solano

Sonoma

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

10% 10%8% 11%

7%4%

17%13%

18% 18%16%

26%

13% 18%

42%

24%

Sep 2012

Short Sales

REO Sales

Page 37: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

REO & Short Sales: Southern California(Percent of Total Sales)

Los AngelesOrange

RiversideSan

Bernardino San Diego

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

10%6% 14% 21%

7%

26%

19%

34% 24%

8%

Sep 2012

Short Sales

REO Sales

Page 38: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

REO & Short Sales: Central Valley(Percent of Total Sales)

FresnoKern

Kings

Madera

MercedPlacer

Sacramento

San Benito

San Joaquin

Stanislaus

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

23%18%

17%30%

13%10% 15% 20%

20%20%

29%

27%23%

17%

32%33% 34%

35%

32% 36%

Sep 2012

Short Sales

REOs

Page 39: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

CA Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSeptember 2012: $345,000, Up 19.5% YTY

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 $-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000 P: May-07$594,530

T: Feb-09$245,230-59% frompeak

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 40: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

CA Unsold Inventory: Nearing Record Lows September 2012: 3.7 Months

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MONTHS

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

Page 41: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Price Range (Thousand) Sep-11 Aug-12 Sep-12

$1,000K+ 9.9 6.1 7.7$750-1000K 6.1 4.0 4.7$500-750K 6.0 3.1 3.6$300-500K 5.4 3.0 3.3$0-300K 4.6 2.8 3.2

Unsold Inventory Index Months of Supply

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

Page 42: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Tight Supply of Inventory, Especially for REO Sales(California)

Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales0

1

2

3

4

3.8

2.2

3.9

Sep-12Unsold In-ventory In-dex (Months)

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Page 43: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Extremely Low Levels of Active Listings at the State Level

Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales0

1

2

3 2.4

1.1 1.1

Sep-12Unsold Inventory Index – Active List-ing Only (Months)

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Page 44: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Equity Sales and Short Sales Continued to Improved, While REO Sales Dropped

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Equity Sales Short Sales REO Sales-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%14.1%

3.6%

-59.0%

(% Change in Sales – Year to Year)

Page 45: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Aug-11Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12May-12Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-120

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Equity Sales REO Short Sales

Inventory Remained in Short SupplyUnsold Inventory Index (Months)

Page 46: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Equity Sales Short Sale REO

Low Inventory Pushing Prices Upward in REOs & Equity Sales

Page 47: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Shadow Inventory

Page 48: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

How do you define “Shadow Inventory”?

• Everyone defines it differently• Bank owned?• In foreclosure?• Not making payments?• Underwater?

• Urban Myth: There will be a flood of foreclosures after the election

Page 49: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

The CA Foreclosure Funnel:

8.6 Million Homes

6.8 Million Mortgages

2.07 Million Underwater

.com/CAR

Page 50: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

18,000/684,000 = 38 months of Inventory

434,000 Delinquent

180,000 in Foreclosure

70,000 Bank Owned

18,000 Distressed Sales

.com/CAR

Page 51: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast
Page 52: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

California Foreclosure Filings, Sep. 2012• NTS: 16,947, -21.0% YTD • NOD: 14,478, -18.6% YTD

Jan

-07

Ap

r-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Notice of Trustee Sale - Counts Notice of Defaults - Counts

SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com

6 Month Average:

NTSs: 16,669

NODs: 19,046

Page 53: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

California Foreclosure Outcomes, Sep. 2012• REO: -51.4% YTD • 3rd Party: -2.0% YTD • Cancel: -24.8% YTDJa

n-0

7

Ap

r-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

REOs Sold to 3rd Party Cancellations

SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com

6 Month Average:

REO: 4,761

3rd Party: 3,305

Cancelled: 9,868

Page 54: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

California Foreclosure Inventories, Sep. 2012• Preforeclosure: -20.3% YTD • Schedule for Sale: -21.0% YTD •

• Bank Owned: -28.4% YTDJa

n-0

7

Ap

r-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Preforeclosure Scheduled for Sale Bank Owned

SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com

6 Month Average:

Preforeclosure: 91,014

Schedule for Sale: 85,022

Bank Owned: 68,690

Page 55: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Los Angeles CountyPreforeclosure: 13,092 • Auction: 20,458 • Bank Owned: 3,235

Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/12/12.

Page 56: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Los Angeles CountyPreforeclosure: 13,092 • Auction: 20,458 • Bank Owned: 3,235

Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/12/12.

Page 57: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Los Angeles CountyPreforeclosure: 13,092 • Auction: 20,458 • Bank Owned: 3,235

Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/12/12.

Page 58: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Los Angeles CountyPreforeclosure: 13,092 • Auction: 20,458 • Bank Owned: 3,235

Source: ForeclosureRadar.com as of 10/12/12.

Page 59: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

LENDER SATISFACTION SURVEY

Page 60: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Overall Lender Performance Index Improving

2010 2011 20120

5

10

15

20

25

1617

23

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Page 61: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Majority of REALTORS® in California Dealt with Bank of America in Most Recent Short Sale Transaction

Other ; 14%

Citi Bank; 4%

JP Morgan Chase; 14%

Wells Fargo; 18%

Bank of America; 50%

Please indicate which lender/servicer you dealt with in your most recent transaction.

Page 62: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Difficulty in Closing Improved

Please rate the level of ease or difficulty you had in closing this transaction. 5 is extremely difficult, 1 is extremely easy.

Extremely Easy

Extremely Difficult

N=495

5

4

3

2

1

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

34%

30%

17%

12%

7%

56%

21%

12%

7%

4%

2011

2012

Page 63: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Satisfaction Levels Slightly Improved in All Categories

The timeliness of responses to your inquiries

Knowledge/professionalism of the representative you worked with

Length of time to obtain approval/disapproval of the short sale transaction

Expectations of financial contrivuations from the seller at or after closing

Your overall satisfaction with this lender

1 2 3 4 5

2.5

2.9

2.2

3.0

2.5

2.1

2.4

1.8

2.4

1.9

2011

2012

With respect to your most recent transaction, please rate your satisfaction level with the lender/servicer in the following categories.

Very SatisfiedVery Dissatisfied

Page 64: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Overall Satisfaction With Lender During Short Sale Better Than a Year Ago

Not a

t all S

atisf

ied

Not S

atisf

ied

Neutra

l

Satisf

ied

Extre

mely

Sat

isfied

0%

20%

40%

60%

2012

2011

36%

23%

14% 16%12%

54%

21%9%

9% 7%

2012 2011

With respect to your most recent transaction, please rate your satisfaction level with the lender/servicer - Your overall satisfaction with this lender

Page 65: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Communications with Lenders Improving…

On average, what was the actual time it required for the lender's representative to return any form of communication to you?

n=510

More than 5 business days

Within 5 business days

Within 4 business days

Within 3 business days

Within 2 business days

Within 1 business day

Within 1 Hour

Instantly

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

30.4%

7.3%

4.9%

14.3%

16.1%

19.4%

6.5%

1.2%

43.0%

5.2%

4.6%

12.8%

14.7%

14.5%

4.1%

1.1%

2011

2012

Page 66: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

…But Communication Problems with Lender Remain Obstacles to the Transaction

What were the obstacles you faced with this transaction? (Check all that apply)

Other

Problems qualifying the buyer

Lender foreclosed before the transaction completed

Seller in the short sale transaction not responsive

Problem with the appraisal

Problem with the second lien holder(s) in the short sale

Buyer backed out of the transaction/Long negotiations

Repeated requests for documentation

Poor communications with lender representative

Lender's response time to the short sale package

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

17%

4%

8%

11%

12%

23%

32%

50%

55%

67%

2011 2012

Page 67: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

More REALTORS® Likely to Refer Lender to Future Buyers than in 2011

How likely are you to refer buyers to this lender for financing on a future home purchase?

Unsure

Not at all likely

Not likely

Likely

Very likely

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

8%

42%

23%

16%

11%

7%

60%

18%

7%

7%

2011 2012

n=557

Page 68: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Still, Nearly 2/3rds Not Happy With Lender

N=492

Very Unhappy Unhappy Neutral Happy Very Happy0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

44%

21%

11%15%

8%

Overall, how did working with this lender make you feel?

Page 69: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

2012 ANNUAL HOUSING MARKET SURVEY

Page 70: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Equity Sales vs. REO vs. Short Sales(2012)

Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales

Share of Total Sales 64.7% 12.3% 21.7%

Median Home Price $448,000 $185,000 $235,000

Square Footage 1,750 1,500 1,600

Price / SF $243 $116 $154

Sales-to-List Price Ratio 97.3% 100.0% 99.9%

% of Sales With Multiple Offers 50.9% 70.8% 66.1%

Avg. Number of Offers 4.0 4.2 4.3

% of All Cash Sales 27.3 43.1% 26.7%

Days on MLS 32 30 90

Days in Escrow 35 45 50

Page 71: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Equity Sales (2011 vs. 2012)

2012 2011

Share of Total Sales 64.7% 58.7%

Median Home Price $448,000 $431,000

Square Footage 1,750 1,783

Price / SF $243 $250

Sales-to-List Price Ratio 97.3% 95.9%

% of Sales With Multiple Offers 50.9% 35.2%

Avg. Number of Offers 4.0 3.0

% of All Cash Sales 27.3% 25.5%

Days on MLS 32 67

Days in Escrow 35 35

Page 72: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

REO Sales (2011 vs. 2012)

2012 2011

Share of Total Sales 12.3% 19.7%

Median Home Price $185,000 $240,000

Square Footage 1,500 1,500

Price / SF $116 $112

Sales-to-List Price Ratio 100.0% 98.0%

% of Sales With Multiple Offers 70.8% 58.3%

Avg. Number of Offers 4.2 4.3

% of All Cash Sales 43.1% 34.0%

Days on MLS 30 50

Days in Escrow 45 35

Page 73: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Short Sales (2011 vs. 2012)

2012 2011

Share of Total Sales 21.7% 20.2%

Median Home Price $235,000 $287,000

Square Footage 1,600 1,600

Price / SF $154 $175

Sales-to-List Price Ratio 99.9% 95.9%

% of Sales With Multiple Offers 66.1% 57.5%

Avg. Number of Offers 4.3 3.6

% of All Cash Sales 26.7% 23.3%

Days on MLS 90 141

Days in Escrow 50 45

Page 74: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Demand for Investment & Second/ Vacation Homes Dips Slightly, But Remains Strong

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Investment/Rental PropertyVacation/Second Home

7%

16%

Page 75: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

For Those Who Purchased an Investment Property:

17%

83%

Investment to Flip

Rental Property

Page 76: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Share of International Buyers

Q. Was the buyer an international buyer – a person who was a citizen of another country who wished to purchase residential real estate in the U.S.?

2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

7.8%

6.0%5.3%

5.7% 5.8%

Page 77: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

More Sellers Are Planning to Buy Another Home As the Market Slowly Recovers

Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

40%

Page 78: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

For Those Who Do Not Plan to Repurchase, Here Are Their Top 5 Reasons:

Seller is a lender/bank

Seller prefers to have less financial obligation

Poor credit background

Lack of cash for down payment

Decide to live with family/friends

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

15.3%

14.4%

8.8%

8.6%

8.1%

19.8%

11.4%

10.9%

5.7%

4.7%

2011 2012

Page 79: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

Page 80: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Forecast Report Card

Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Forecast Date: October 2012 vs. September 2011

2011 Projected

September 2011 2011 Actual2012 Forecasted September 2011

2012 Projected

SFH Resales (000s) 491.1 497.9 496.2 523.3

% Change -0.1% 1.1% 1.0% 5.1%Median Price ($000s) $291.0 $286.0 $296.0 $317.0

% Change -4.0% -6.2% 1.7% 10.9%

Page 81: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

California Housing Market Outlook

Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012p 2013f

SFH Resales (000s) 441.81 546.86 492.29 497.86 523.25 530

% Change 27.3% 23.8% -10.0% 1.1% 5.1% 1.3%Median Price ($000s) 348.5$ 275.0$ 305.0$ 286.0$ 317.0$ 335.0$

% Change -37.8% -21.1% 10.9% -6.2% 10.9% 5.7%

30-Yr FRM 6.0% 5.1% 4.7% 4.5% 3.8% 4.0%

1-Yr ARM 5.2% 4.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%

Page 82: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Recovery Will Continue in 2013, with Both Sales and the Median Price Up

Units (Thousand)

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012p

2013f

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

523,250.0530,000.0

Sales of Existing Detached Homes

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012p

2013f

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$317,020

$335,000

Median Price

Price (Thousand)

Page 83: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

CLOSING THOUGHTS

Page 84: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

Housing Permits Improving…Slowly2012(p): 52,000 units, Up 10.4% from 2011

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012P 0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Single Family Multi-Family

Household Growth: 220,000-250,000/yr

SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board

Page 85: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

First-time Buyers: Rent v. Buy? Do the Math!

Total Monthly Housing Costs

$0$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500$5,000

$1,560$1,949

$390

$4,680

Buying Renting Monthly Savings Annual Savings

Page 86: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

For more information:http://www.facebook.com/CARResearchgroup

Page 87: CAR 2013 Housing Market Forceast

THANK YOU!

www.car.org/[email protected]

@sarasutachan