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Capital Gearing Trust plcAnnual General Meeting
July 2018
For Professional Investors Only
2018 was the 36th anniversary since Peter Spiller started managing Capital Gearing Trust
CGT
Source: Morningstar
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
CGT
MSCI UK
15% CAGR
11% CAGR
CGT TR 45% 49% 29% 35% 47% 3% 30% 2% 19% 18% 30% 18% 5% 20% 13% 17% 4% 10% 11% 10% 3% 22% 15% 15% 5% 7% 0% 18% 8% 10% 11% (2)% 5% 3% 13% 0%
2
Capital Gearing Trust – NAV Total Return History (Rebased) Apr 1982 to Jun 2018
Capital Gearing Trust has the dual objective of preserving shareholders real wealth and to achieve absolute returns
3
Capital Gearing Trust
Source: Morningstar
Capital Gearing Trust – NAV Performance Since 2000
Update
0
100
200
300
400
500
Capital Gearing NAV MSCI UK UK RPI
Fund Reporting
5
There are two key pillars to CG Asset Management’s investment strategy
Investment Strategy
Long Only Absolute Return
Equity Alpha Asset Allocation
Aim:
Strategy:
Execution:
Capital protection
Multi asset portfolio construction
Broad investment across bond markets
Superior returns on risk exposure
Value focused specialist equity investing
Focus on listed closed ended funds,
ETFs and other collective vehicles
Downside Protection Superior Equity Returns
1 2
Disciplined investment in the closed ended fund universe offers opportunities for alpha, however discounts today are very narrow
6
Equity Alpha
Source: Bloomberg Portfolio Analytics
Risk Assets include funds invested in equities, property, infrastructure, private equity, hedge funds and loans.
CGT – Risk Asset Only –Three Year Returns (%)
1
CGT – Risk Asset Only – Returns and Risk
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Jun-1
5
Aug-
15
Oct
-15
Dec-
15
Feb-1
6
Apr-
16
Jun-1
6
Aug-
16
Oct
-16
Dec-
16
Feb-1
7
Apr-
17
Jun-1
7
Aug-
17
Oct
-17
Dec-
17
Feb-1
8
Apr-
18
CGT Risk Assets MSCI UK All Cap
Investment Trust Index
CGT Risk
Assets
MSCI All Share
Investment
Trust Index
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
3 Y
ear
Tota
l R
etu
rn3 Year Standard Deviation
Disciplined investment in the closed ended fund universe offers opportunities for alpha, however discounts today are very narrow
7
Equity Alpha
Source: Numis
Investment Trust Discounts – 2005 to 2018
1
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15Q
4 05
Q2
06
Q4
06
Q2
07
Q4
07
Q2
08
Q4
08
Q2
09
Q4
09
Q2
10
Q3
10
Q2
11
Q3
11
Q2
12
Q3
12
Q2
13
Q3
13
Q1
14
Q3
14
Q1
15
Q3
15
Q4
15
Q3
16
Q4
16
Q3
17
Q4
17
Pre
miu
m(+
) /
Dis
cou
nt
(-)
%
Equity Funds Alternative Funds
How liquid are the risk assets compared to their history?
8
Source: CG Asset Management Analysis and Estimates. Based on
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% Of Risk Assets Capable Of Liquidation In 1 Day Based on 10% Market Participation
Equity Alpha
1
With prospective returns low, duration is short, waiting for more attractive opportunities to present themselves
CGT Asset Allocation – June 2018 – By Asset Class
9
Source: CG Asset Management Analysis and Estimates, Northern Trust, Bloomberg Portfolio Analytics, Morningstar
Asset Allocation
2
Equities
Property
Alternatives
Gold
Index Linked
Bonds
Conventional
Bonds
Cash & T-
Bills
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
7%
14%
3%
-1%
0%
3%
0%
Equities
Property
Alternatives
Gold
Index Linked
Bonds
Conventional
Bonds
Cash & T-Bills
CGT 12 Month Asset Class Return – to June 2018
Summary 12M Return
CGT
UK MSCI All Cap
UK RPI
3%
8%
3%
Over the last three year the defensive asset allocation has lowered returns but also significantly lowered risk
CGT 3 year total return (Jun 2015 = 100)
10
Source: Bloomberg, Northern Trust, Morningstar
Asset Allocation
CGT 3 year total return & Max Drawdown
2
CGT
MSCI UK
UK Gilt Index
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%3 Y
ear
Tota
l R
etu
rn3 Year Maximum Drawdown
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jul-15
Sep-1
5
Nov-
15
Jan-1
6
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-16
Sep-1
6
Nov-
16
Jan-1
7
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-17
Sep-1
7
Nov-
17
Jan-1
8
Mar
-18
May
-18
Capital Gearing NAV MSCI UK UK RPI
Strongest returns were generated by property holdings, and the weakest by disappointing special situation investment trusts
Contributors and Detractors – 12m to Jun 2018
11
Source: CG Asset Management Analysis and Estimates, Northern Trust, Bloomberg
Asset Allocation
Largest Positions -12 Months to Jun 2018
Asset Return Av
Weight
Cont’
Equities % % %
North Atlantic Smallers 12 2.8 0.3
Vanguard FTSE Japan 9 2.8 0.2
Vonovia 22 2.8 0.6
Deutsche Wohnen 27 1.9 0.5
Residential Secured Income -3 1.8 0.0
Bonds
UK Index Linked 2019 0 6.6 0.0
US TIPS 2026 0 4.4 0.0
US TIPS 2025 0 3.9 0.0
UK Index Linked 2025 0 2.3 0.0
Swedish Index Linked 2022 -5 1.9 -0.1
Zeros/Credit
NB Private Equity Zero 5 1.7 0.1
JZ Capital Partners Zero 5 1.2 0.1
Asset Return Av
Weight
Cont’
Top Contributors % % %
Vonovia 22 2.8 0.6
Deutsche Wohnen 27 1.9 0.5
Unite Group 37 1.1 0.4
North Atlantic Smallers 12 2.8 0.3
Segro 27 0.5 0.2
LEG Immobilien 18 0.9 0.2
Largest Detractors
Ground Rents Income Fund -18 1.1 -0.2
EPE Special Opportunities -50 0.3 -0.2
Swedish Index Linked 22 -5 1.9 -0.1
Candover -17 0.3 -0.1
US TIPS 2020 -0.4 1.1 0.0
Residential Secure Income -3 1.8 0.0
Macro Outlook
CGAM’s asset allocation is built on two simple principles
13
Asset Allocation
Asset returns mean revert over a long horizon
Market timing is possible over a long horizon
therefore
Valuations today suggest prospective returns will be modest and risk is elevated
14
S&P 10 Year Return Model – 1982 to 2018
Source: CG Asset Management Analysis, Shiller CAPE, Bloomberg
10 Year Index Linked Bond Yields – 1982 to 2018
Return Prospects
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
US Real Yield UK Real Yield ImpliedDividend + Earnings Growth + Valuation Change
15
GlobalDebt
The key feature of recent years has been dramatic build of debt, which has continued since the financial crisis
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
USD
Tri
llion
GDP Debt
Global Non-financial Debt Stock vs. Global GDP ($ tn)
Source: BIS, CGAM Analysis
Unemployment is low, global growth is strong and there are signs that wages are starting to pick-up
16
Global Economy
Unemployment Rate – US, UK & Germany (%)
Source: Bloomberg (LHS), IMF (RHS)
Real GDP Growth –World (%)
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
20
18f
An
nu
al R
eal G
DP
Gro
wth
(%
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1992
1993
1995
1997
1998
2000
2002
2003
2005
2007
2008
2010
2012
2013
2015
2017
Unem
plo
yment
Rat
e (
%)
Germany UK US
Forecast for 2018 of 3.7%
in line with average since
1992 of 3.6%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Jul-08
Nov-
08
Mar
-09
Jul-09
Nov-
09
Mar
-10
Jul-10
Nov-
10
Mar
-11
Jul-11
Nov-
11
Mar
-12
Jul-12
Nov-
12
Mar
-13
Jul-13
Nov-
13
Mar
-14
Jul-14
Nov-
14
Mar
-15
Jul-15
Nov-
15
Mar
-16
Jul-16
Nov-
16
Mar
-17
Jul-17
Nov-
17
Mar
-18
Jul-18
Nov-
18
Mar
-19
Jul-19
Nov-
19
Mar
-20
$ b
n
PBOC ECB BoJ Fed SNB BoE
17
Monetary Policy
Yet globally interest rates are at emergency levels and monetary policy remains extreme
Source: PBOC, ECB, BOJ, Federal Reserve, SNB, BoE, Bloomberg, CGAM Analysis & Estimates
CGAM
Forecasts
Major Central Bank Balance Sheets –Total Assets (USD bn)
The New York Fed’s UIG has proved to be a good leading indicator of inflation and points to a firming inflationary environment
18
US Core CPI vs. FRBNY Underlying Inflation Gauge (Advanced 15 Months)
US Inflation
Source: BLS, New York Fed, CGAM Analysis
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
% C
hn
g YO
Y
Core CPI FRBNY Underlying Inflation Gauge (15 Months Advanced)
Today’s situation is reminiscent of the late 1960s in the US with a combination of full employment and rising fiscal deficits
19
US CPI and U3 Unemployment (%)
History
Source: BLS, US Office of Management & Budget, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
Federal Budget Balance (% GDP)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan
-60
Jul-
60
Jan
-61
Jul-
61
Jan
-62
Jul-
62
Jan
-63
Jul-
63
Jan
-64
Jul-
64
Jan
-65
Jul-
65
Jan
-66
Jul-
66
Jan
-67
Jul-
67
Jan
-68
Jul-
68
Jan
-69
Jul-
69
Jan
-70
Jul-
70
%
CPI (YOY) Unemployment -3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970
%
20
Historically few assets have provided protection against rising inflation
Asset Performance
Source: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2012, Dimson and Marsh
-74%
-62%
-52%
-33%
-20%
26%
-100% -50% 0% 50%
Bonds
Bills
Equities
Real Estate
Housing
Gold
Regression of annual real return vs. same year inflation
across 19 developed countries
“Equities are at best a partial hedge against inflation;
their nominal returns tend to be higher during inflation,
but not by a large enough margin to ensure that real
returns completely resist inflation.”
Dimson and Marsh, February 2012
Credit Suisse Year Book
“For a variety of reasons reviewed here, inflation tends
to raise investors’ required real rate of return on
equity and to lower real capital income for tax-related
reasons. As a result there is a strong negative
correlation between inflation and real and nominal stock
prices.”
John Tatom, November 2011
Inflation and Asset Prices
Real Return vs. Inflation 1900-2011
Historically gold has performed well during financial repression, however it now stands at a premium to its long term value
Gold
Source: Bloomberg, CGAM analysis
21
30
60
120
240
480
960
1,920
1971
1973
1974
1976
1978
1979
1981
1983
1984
1986
1988
1989
1991
1993
1994
1996
1998
1999
2001
2003
2004
2006
2008
2009
2011
2013
2014
2016
Gold Price - Indexed to 100 August 1973 CPI - Indexed to 100 August 1973
Gold Price & CPI Indexed to 100 in August 1973 (Log Scale)
Capital Gearing Trust has the dual objective of preserving shareholders real wealth and to achieve absolute returns
22
Capital Gearing Trust
Source: Morningstar
Capital Gearing Trust – NAV Performance Since 2000
Update
0
100
200
300
400
500
Capital Gearing NAV MSCI UK UK RPI
DISCLAIMER
This presentation is issued and intended for professional investors and eligible market
counterparties only. Performance figures have been calculated by CG Asset Management Ltd
based on information provided by Morningstar and Northern Trust International Fund
Administration Services (Ireland) Ltd. CG Asset Management Ltd has an obligation to point out
that the value of all investments and the income there from can go down as well as up and the
investor may not get back the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to
future performance.
CGAM IS AUTHORISED AND REGULATED BY THE FINANCIAL CONDUCT
AUTHORITY
REGISTERED IN ENGLAND NO 4056163
23