cape breton demographic study, 1991-2021 · pdf filecape breton demographic study, 1991-2021....

Presentation to CBRM Planning Advisory Committee Municipal Offices

The Esplanade, Sydney, Nova Scotia 1:30 pm, Monday, February 6, 2008

CAPE BRETON DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY, 1991-2021

Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021

GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE

• Cape Breton Island comprised of– Cape Breton Regional Municipality– County of Inverness (including the Town of Port

Hawkesbury)– County of Richmond– County of Victoria

• Halifax Regional Municipality• Province of Nova Scotia


MODEL DESCRIPTION

• Cohort-Survival Model– Births and deaths in resident population– Migration is unexplained Residual

• Projection Model– Birth and death rates projected from 1991-1996– Migrations based on five scenarios (i.e., 1991-

96, 1996-01, 2001-06, 1991-2006, 1996-2001)


PAST & CURRENT PROJECTIONS

109,320 105,930 101,89097,410

92,815

147,500142,285

136,470130,220

123,910

109,320100,900

92,43483,901

75,987

147,500136,882

126,189

115,288105,158

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

CBRM Current Projection Cape Breton Current ProjectionCBRM 2004 Projection Cape Breton 2004 Projection


BIRTHS

13,280

11,815

9,2508,625

7,9607,170

5,9156,902

5,844

4,555 3,911

3,375 2,872

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Females 20-34 Females 20-34 Projected Estimated Births


DEATHS

5,365 5,432 5,577 5,823 5,968 6,105

7,361 7,433 7,583 7,834 7,984 8,126

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Cape Breton CA (CBRM) Cape Breton Island


DEPENDENCY RATIOS

53.9 52.5 51.5 50.350.3 51.5

59.8

72.1

32.8 30.627.3

23.623.620.7 19.8 19.221.1 21.9 24.2 26.726.730.8

40.0

52.9

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Past Dependency Ratio Future Dependency Ratio Past Youth DependencyFuture Youth Dependency Past Senior Dependency Future Senior Dependency


MIGRATION, 1991-1996

59158

-5-85

-1,094-948

-148-3

-2526

-1117

-3924

-27-34

39-164

-27

6911948

-35-927

-5184915

-863031

-173314109

-13115

-39-36

-1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

FemaleMales



-342-118-131

-266-1,492

-1,617-395

-197-177

-87-63

-720

-3-12

-4-28

-1204

-286-104-128-150

-1,257-1,137

-298-121-105

-59-75-23

11-7

-13-69-57

-40

-2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

FemaleMales



010027

-88-1,067

-899-75-25

43319791

176297

-8-19

40-14

-266

-18-61

-864-730

8614542427127151

106812715124

-27

-1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

FemaleMales


MIGRATION COMPARISON

-2,284

-5,033

-1,551

-1,037

-3,881

-798

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

01991-96 1996-2001 2001-2006

Males Females


3,565

4,120

4,435

4,530

4,060

3,260

3,790

4,455

4,510

4,340

3,265

2,915

2,555

2,190

1,845

1,365

825

325

90

3,440

3,880

4,215

4,555

3,945

3,465

4,405

4,925

4,645

4,365

3,435

3,010

2,825

2,645

2,605

2,285

1,570

800

380

6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

FemalesMales

1991

3,980

4,445

4,625

5,175

4,230

3,960

4,490

4,580

4,375

3,355

3,010

2,765

2,490

2,295

1,930

1,285

775

280

110

3,775

4,170

4,595

4,880

3,990

4,365

4,925

4,755

4,370

3,450

3,100

2,900

2,850

2,800

2,755

1,935

1,330

640

360

6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

FemalesMales

1996

POPULATION PROFILE, 1991-2021

2,630

3,435

3,985

4,160

3,020

2,425

2,850

3,570

4,240

4,365

4,185

3,145

2,770

2,315

1,855

1,425

870

415

130

2,570

3,325

3,750

4,060

3,290

2,800

3,160

4,270

4,795

4,550

4,235

3,340

2,920

2,665

2,400

2,180

1,735

1,015

470

6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

FemalesMales

2001

2,315

2,720

3,460

3,890

3,080

2,110

2,340

2,810

3,585

4,220

4,380

4,145

3,160

2,570

2,020

1,465

965

500

165

2,225

2,630

3,305

3,685

3,190

2,555

2,880

3,165

4,305

4,785

4,525

4,285

3,390

2,880

2,535

2,110

1,730

1,265

585

6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

FemalesMales

2006

1,990

2,385

2,740

3,370

2,745

2,275

2,040

2,310

2,830

3,575

4,250

4,375

4,155

2,970

2,280

1,630

1,025

595

200

1,910

2,275

2,610

3,240

2,820

2,510

2,630

2,880

3,200

4,300

4,760

4,620

4,345

3,350

2,750

2,240

1,685

1,305

710

6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

FemalesMales

2011

1,720

2,055

2,405

2,660

2,300

1,875

2,215

2,020

2,325

2,825

3,620

4,270

4,465

3,950

2,685

1,885

1,185

665

245

1,655

1,955

2,260

2,555

2,440

2,150

2,580

2,635

2,910

3,205

4,290

4,880

4,740

4,300

3,205

2,445

1,800

1,280

745

6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

FemalesMales

2016

1,470

1,780

2,075

2,340

1,750

1,570

1,820

2,200

2,035

2,325

2,875

3,670

4,405

4,310

3,635

2,275

1,425

805

285

1,410

1,695

1,945

2,210

1,835

1,860

2,220

2,585

2,655

2,910

3,200

4,435

5,035

4,735

4,125

2,865

1,970

1,360

735

6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89

90+

FemalesMales

2021


POPULATION COMPARISON

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Cape Breton CA Cape Breton Island Halifax CMA Other Nova Scotia - non-CMA/CA Nova Scotia

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

13.3% 13.0% 12.0% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 10.2%

4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4%

36.8% 36.6% 39.6% 40.8% 42.0% 43.2% 44.4%

45.3% 46.0% 44.2% 43.6% 43.1% 42.5% 41.9%

Cape Breton CA Other Cape Breton Halifax CMA Other Nova Scotia - non-CMA/CA


FUTURE ISSUES

• Birth Rate is stable but many fewer potential mothers

• Death Rate falling but many more elderly• Migration over 40 will not add children• Stemming young out migration/stimulating

in migration requires economic opportunities


THANK YOU

EDM • Environmental Design and Management1940 Maitland StreetHalifax, Nova Scotia B3K 2Z8

Phone: 902-425-7900Fax: 902-425-7990Email: [email protected]: www.edm.ca

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.edm.ca

cape breton demographic study, 1991-2021 · pdf filecape breton demographic study, 1991-2021....

Documents