cap index validation study · 2019-04-23 · cap has used reasonable efforts to include accurate...

CAP INDEX VALIDATION STUDY Over 200,000 Address-Specific Crimes Reported in the United States

| 2©2019 CAP Index, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

About the Analysis

QUICK FACTThe results are based on an analysis of 217,793

address-specific crimes reported by 5 police departments across the United States from January 1st through

March 15th of 2018 and 2019.

Disclaimer: This Report is copyrighted and is the property of CAP Index, Inc. (CAP). CAP has used reasonable efforts to include accurate and complete information in this Report. CAP makes no representations or warranties that the information provided within this Report is accurate, complete, or current. The contents of this Report are the property of CAP. You may print and download portions of material from the different areas of the Report solely for your own non-commercial use. Any other copying, redistribution, retransmission, or publication of any Report material is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of CAP. By accepting this Report, you agree not to change or delete any information included in the Report. In no event shall CAP be liable for any special, indirect, or consequential damages or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of use, data, or profits, whether in an action of contract, negligence, or other action, arising out of or in connection with the use or performance of documents, services, or information available from this Report.

The findings presented in this Report are intended to provide a basis of understanding for the reader on the issues presented. The information is not to be construed or used as a substitute for specific legal advice and may not reflect an analysis of all relevant variables or the operational feasibility of the considerations presented. Individuals seeking legal advice for a particular problem or issue should obtain advice from an attorney of their choosing.

CAP Index continues to maintain its leadership position as the preeminent source of accurate and comprehensive risk assessment information. The CRIMECAST® scoring system is based on the strong relationship between a neighborhood’s “social disorganization” and the amount of crime that occurs there. The social disorganization theory views weakly-organized social environments as a major determinant of criminal activity.

CAP Index conducted a study to assess partial-year crime trends for 2018 in comparison to 2019 as well as validate the strength of the correlation between CAP Index Scores and reported crime frequencies in Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, and Los Angeles. Over 200,000 address-specific crimes were assessed, and the following crime categories were analyzed: Homicide, Rape, Robbery, Aggravated Assault, Simple Assault, Burglary, Larceny, Motor Vehicle Theft, Arson, Vandalism, Drug Offenses, and Fraud & Forgery.

Please Note: Delayed reporting of criminal incidents and changes in recording practices may impact reported crime trends. The availability of crime types varied by city. The analysis was based on the addresses and/or coordinates provided by each police department and relied upon the data made available at the time of collection; therefore, there is no guarantee that it includes a full representation of all crimes occurring within the selected cities or time periods.

©2019 CAP Index, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

TEMPORAL PATTERNS


Partial-Year Crime Trends*

*Please Note: This analysis covers the time period of January 1st through March 15th for each of the listed years.

Homicide i2018 - 228

2019 - 186

Rape i2018 - 889

2019 - 687

Robbery i2018 - 6,079

2019 - 5,549

Agg. Assault h2018 - 6,539

2019 - 6,685

Simple Assault h2018 - 19,389

2019 - 19,845

Burglary i2018 - 9,023

2019 - 7,864

Larceny h2018 - 34,841

2019 - 35,136

MVT i2018 - 9,287

2019 - 8,828

Arson i2018 - 219

2019 - 185

Vandalism i2018 - 11,832

2019 - 11,287

Drug Offenses h2018 - 4,176

2019 - 5,086

Fraud & Forgery i2018 - 7,827

2019 - 6,126


REPORTED CRIME VS. CAP SCORES


ROBBERY

n 0-99 0.6%

n 100-199 6.4%

n 200-399 27.5%

n 400-2000 65.5%

HOMICIDE RAPE

n 0-99 1.0% 1.6%

n 100-199 3.7% 11.2%

n 200-399 20.7% 26.2%

n 400-2000 74.6% 61.0%

Key Observations• The vast majority of Crimes Against Persons occurred

in socially disorganized neighborhoods, as measured by CAP Index Scores.

• The percentages of crimes that were reported at locations with above-average CAP Index Scores (100+) were:

• 99.0% for Homicide

• 98.4% for Rape

• 99.4% for Robbery

Crimes Against Persons by CAP Index Risk Category


AGGRAVATED ASSAULT

n 0-99 0.9%

n 100-199 7.8%

n 200-399 23.9%

n 400-2000 67.4%

SIMPLE ASSAULT

n 0-99 1.6%

n 100-199 9.4%

n 200-399 24.7%

n 400-2000 64.3%

Key Observations• The vast majority of Crimes Against Persons occurred



• 99.1% for Aggravated Assault

• 98.4% for Simple Assault

Crimes Against Persons by CAP Index Risk Category


MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT

n 0-99 1.6%

n 100-199 12.7%

n 200-399 34.4%

n 400-2000 51.3%

BURGLARY LARCENY

n 0-99 4.1% 2.3%

n 100-199 17.1% 14.9%

n 200-399 32.3% 33.2%

n 400-2000 46.5% 49.6%

Key Observations• The vast majority of Crimes Against Property occurred



• 95.9% for Burglary

• 97.7% for Larceny

• 98.4% for Motor Vehicle Theft

Crimes Against Property by CAP Index Risk Category


ARSON

n 0-99 1.8%

n 100-199 9.3%

n 200-399 27.7%

n 400-2000 61.2%

VANDALISM

n 0-99 1.8%

n 100-199 12.4%

n 200-399 30.8%

n 400-2000 55.0%

Key Observations• The vast majority of Crimes Against Property occurred



• 98.2% for Arson

• 98.2% for Vandalism

Crimes Against Property by CAP Index Risk Category


DRUG OFFENSES

n 0-99 0.7%

n 100-199 3.5%

n 200-399 16.2%

n 400-2000 79.6%

FRAUD & FORGERY

n 0-99 3.9%

n 100-199 18.8%

n 200-399 34.2%

n 400-2000 43.1%

Key Observations• The vast majority of Other Crimes occurred in socially

disorganized neighborhoods, as measured by CAP Index Scores.


• 99.3% for Drug Offenses

• 96.1% for Fraud & Forgery

Other Crimes by CAP Index Risk Category

ACCURACY, INTEGRITY, AND RELIABILITY OUTSMART CRIME

CAP Index pioneered the business crime forecasting industry. For over 30 years, the team that developed CAP’s landmark model was led by an internationally renowned PhD criminologist. This model, grounded in the theory of social disorganization, has been repeatedly validated and refined for decades, using millions of corporate loss reports.

How it’s built matters. CAP Index builds its models using millions of address-specific crime and loss reports, characterizing each neighborhood with pinpoint accuracy.

Our data and legal expertise have passed the court’s toughest test.CAP Index’s crime risk data and legal professionals are frequently used by clients to support (and win) premises liability litigation in civil court cases. We’ve passed the “Daubert Challenge” in federal court cases, which is the toughest rule of evidence standard for the admissibility of expert witness testimony.

Data are only one part of the crime risk solutions we deliver to clients. CAP Index provides crime risk data, but data are only one part of our crime risk intelligence portfolio. Our services range from crime analytics to strategic security consulting; and from asset protection software development to litigation support.

There are more than 7,000 reasons why companies select CAP Index. Our clients include over 80 of the companies in the Fortune 100. We also have more than 7,000 business and government clients of all sizes and in every industry sector. We can arrange for you to speak directly with long-time CAP Index clients with needs similar to yours.

SECURITY RESOURCE ALLOCATION

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PROACTIVE DEFENSE

RISK MATRIX DEVELOPMENT

TIERING LOCATIONS

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LOSS FORECASTING

Applications of CAPData™

Why CAP Index?

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SITE-SPECIFIC

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ECONOMIC

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POPULATION

MOBILITY

POPULATION

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BUSINESS

PROXIMITY

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POLICE

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Creation Date: Month xx, 2018 CRIMECAST is a trademark of CAP Index, Inc.

Please note terms and conditions as presented on https://capindex.com/terms-conditions. | 12©2019 CAP Index, Inc. All Rights Reserved.


CRIMECAST ReportsWith a detailed, color-coded map and a spreadsheet of risk scores, users can identify potential asset protection concerns surrounding an address. A quick glance at the map shows the site in relation to its environment. The CRIMECAST Scores allow for an in-depth analysis of the overall crime risk.

CRIMECAST ScoresA The CAP Index Score represents the overall risk of crime at the address.

• CRIMECAST Scores are based on a scale of 0 to 2000, with 0 representing the lowest risk and 2000 the highest – 100 is average.

• A score of 600 is 6 times higher than average, and a score of 25 indicates that the risk is 1/4 the average.

CRIMECAST MapsB There are over 215,000 block groups in the United States. Each one

typically contains thousands of residents with similar socioeconomic characteristics. Every block group is assigned a numeric risk score and a coinciding risk shading.

C The Site Map is color-coded to depict the level of risk within each block group and identify the potential origin of criminal behavior. CAP Index Score ranges are used to assign risk shading similar to that of the green, yellow, and red color scheme found on a traffic light.

D The Contour Map shows the risk dispersion based on every point across the map being scored using our radius/threshold methodology. Points are then joined together to create contours.

E A radius threshold analysis is used to determine a site’s overall risk. The inner radius represents 1 mile or a population of 25,000, equaling 80% of the overall score. The outer radius represents 3 miles or a population of 100,000, providing the remaining 20%. In addition to the 3-mile methodology shown to the left, a 6-mile methodology is also available. This methodology applies an inner radius of 2 miles or a population of 100,000 and an outer radius of 6 miles or a population of 400,000.

B

E

E

E

E

A

A

D

About the CRIMECAST Maps & Scores

Creation Date: Month xx, 2018 CRIMECAST is a trademark of CAP Index, Inc.

Please note terms and conditions as presented on https://capindex.com/terms-conditions.

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About CAP Index

For over 30 years, CAP Index has been the leader in crime risk forecasting, serving over 80% of the Fortune 100. Today more than 7,000 businesses and government agencies use our CRIMECAST® Maps and Reports, analytics, and tools to help optimize resources, limit exposure, and minimize losses. We help security, loss prevention, and risk management professionals objectively measure, thoroughly analyze, and proactively manage their crime risks.

Let CAP Index help you Outsmart Crime®.

Contact Information Email: [email protected] Phone: 800-227-7475

cap index validation study · 2019-04-23 · cap has used reasonable efforts to include accurate...

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