cap conference – interpretation and thematic analysis
DESCRIPTION
CAP conference – Interpretation and Thematic Analysis. 17 April 2013. RURAL AND ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND ANALYTICAL SERVICES (RESAS). Contents: . Introduction and Definitions Interpreting the summary slides Thematic Analysis – Initial Findings Next Steps. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
CAP conference – Interpretation and Thematic Analysis
17 April 2013
RURAL AND ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND ANALYTICAL SERVICES (RESAS)
Contents: 1. Introduction and Definitions2. Interpreting the summary slides 3. Thematic Analysis – Initial
Findings 4. Next Steps
Section 1:
Introduction and Definitions
Introduction - Ceilings / Budgets
Basic Payment Ceiling + Greening
Regional Ceilings
÷
÷
÷
Land in Region
¿¿¿
Regional Rate
€/ha
€/ha
€/ha
Definitions – Regions (1)• Farm Level vs Parish Level
Arable
Permanent Grass
Rough Grazing
Definitions – Regions (2)• Farm Level vs Parish Level
Parish A
Parish B
Definitions – Land
• Land = total eligible area held by farmers activating 2011 SFPS entitlements (just under 4.6m hectares)
Assumptions
• Direct payments ceiling is total value of all entitlements used in 2011 plus the Scottish Beef Calf Scheme (€671m)
• Greening payments are on the same regional area basis as the Basic Payment Scheme - all farms get the full Greening payment
• Zero-sum game – total amount of money stays the same but is paid on area basis –trade-offs are therefore inevitable.
Summary of Scenarios:
Regions
Criteria for Setting Ceilings
Historic Economic
Weighted Land
90:10 Production Weight
EnvironmentalWeight
1 Farm Level LCA 1a n/a
2 Farm Level LCA 1b n/a
3 Farm Level LCA 1c n/a n/a n/a
4 Farm Level LFA n/a
5 Farm Level Land Type n/a
6 Parish LCA 1a n/a
7 Parish LCA 1b n/a n/a n/a
8 Parish Historical SFPS n/a n/a n/a
9 Parish Land Type n/a
Keith’s presentation:
Regions
Criteria for Setting Ceilings
Historic Economic
Weighted Land
90:10 Production Weight
EnvironmentalWeight
1 Farm Level LCA 1a n/a
2 Farm Level LCA 1b n/a
3 Farm Level LCA 1c n/a n/a n/a
4 Farm Level LFA n/a
5 Farm Level Land Type n/a
6 Parish LCA 1a n/a
7 Parish LCA 1b n/a n/a n/a
8 Parish Historical SFPS n/a n/a n/a
9 Parish Land Type n/a
Summary Pack/ Thematic Analysis:
Regions
Criteria for Setting Ceilings
Historic Economic
Weighted Land
90:10 Production Weight
EnvironmentalWeight
1 Farm Level LCA 1a n/a
2 Farm Level LCA 1b n/a
3 Farm Level LCA 1c n/a n/a n/a
4 Farm Level LFA n/a
5 Farm Level Land Type n/a
6 Parish LCA 1a n/a
7 Parish LCA 1b n/a n/a n/a
8 Parish Historical SFPS n/a n/a n/a
9 Parish Land Type n/a
Section 2:
Interpreting the Summary Packs
Regions and Scenario Rates (1) Shows the regions (2) Shows an illustrative rate that would be
paid in the region (3) We do not yet know the total budget
for direct payments in Scotland so rates will change
(4) It is the difference between the rates that is important for considering regions
Interpreting the summary pack (1)
Commentary Presents : (1) total gains and losses compared to
current payment (2) if the gains and losses tend to be large
(>20%) or small (<20%) for individual businesses
(3) how the scenario compares against the other sectors/ regions in Scottish agriculture
Interpreting the summary pack (2)
• Count of businesses within a size band are shown on the left
• The total increases and decreases (€m) for business in size band are shown on the right
• Number of businesses in a size band remains the same – it is the difference between the increases and decreases that matters
Interpreting the summary pack (3)
<50ha 50-<100ha 100-<150ha 150-<200ha 200-<250ha 250ha+ -
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
2011 Payments (€) by farm size
Tota
l Pay
men
ts (€
)
Interpreting the summary pack (4)
• Charts show counts/amounts (€m) of increases and decreases for Farm Types and Agricultural Regions
• The sector/region with the largest net increase is shown at the top of the chart down to the sector/ region with the biggest net decrease at the bottom
• We haven’t shown % changes – be aware that results for smaller regions/ sectors may look less significant than they are
Section 3:
Thematic Analysis – Initial Findings
Thematic Analysis – Initial Findings• Draws out some initial findings/ common
themes across the 30 scenarios• Results have been broken down by:
1. Farm Types (23)2. Size class (ha) 3. Agricultural Regions (14) 4. High Nature Value farms
Defining Farm Types
• Farm Type rules - (>2/3rds Gross Margins from relevant set of agricultural activities)
• HNVF indicator (LFA Cattle and Sheep Farms with >70% Rough Grazing stocked at <0.5 LSU/ha)
Farm Types with net increases
• Compared to 2011 all 30 scenarios give more money to the following farm types: – Specialist Sheep (SDA); – Cattle and Sheep (Lowland); – Specialist Poultry; and – Horticulture.
• All scenarios give more money to farms covered by the HNVF indicator
Farm Types with net decreases
• Compared to 2011 all 30 scenarios give less money to the following farm types: – Cropping, Cattle and Sheep; – Dairy (LFA & Lowland); – Farms that cannot be classified in a sector (fallow
and other); – Mixed Livestock; – Cropping and Dairy; and – Specialist Pigs.
Comparison across two biggest sectors (1) All scenarios give more money to Beef than Sheep
(2) Big differences for sheep – the amounts are almost double when comparing best & worst scenarios
(3) Balance of money between Beef and Sheep varies widely across the scenarios
Specialist Sheep (SDA) & Mixed Cattle and Sheep (SDA)
• Compared to 2011 all 30 scenarios give more money to these farm types.
• The best scenarios for Specialist Sheep and Mixed Cattle and Sheep tend to be the best for HNV farms.
Specialist Sheep
Generally large increases for sheep farms across scenarios but …
…still some reduction in payments for individual specialist sheep businesses
Specialist Beef (1) • Most scenarios allocate less
money to this sector
• Production orientated budget ceilings best
• Top 3 scenarios for Specialist beef also favour cattle and sheep (DA); dairy farms and smaller sized businesses.
Specialist Beef (2)
• Compared to 2011 payments all scenarios result in big within sector increases and reductions
Dairy • All scenarios give less money
to the sector compared to 2011
• Reductions tend to be smaller than for the beef sector
• Top 3 scenarios for Dairy are also good for Dumfries and Galloway, Ayrshire and Orkney.
Cereals• Economic (Standard
Output) ceilings benefit this sector
• Top 3 Scenarios for this sector benefit farms under 250ha
• Scenarios that benefit cereals tend to see more money in North East Scotland; Fife; and Lothian.
Farm Size (Ha) – Small
• The majority of the scenarios increase total payments to farms <50ha
• Total changes are relatively small: (Max approx €7m) (Min approx -€6m)
Farm Size (Ha) – Medium
• All scenarios produce net reductions for medium sized farms
• Individual businesses will face increases or losses
Farm Size (Ha) – Large
• Large Farms do well under every scenario
• A lot of money moved to larger farms in most scenarios
• Individual businesses will face increases or losses
Agricultural Regions • Only a few scenarios result in more money going
to the North East of Scotland and Dumfries and Galloway
• Most scenarios are good for Highland, Eileanan an Iar and Tayside
• Tayside – two main reasons for increases: – gains for Sheep/ Cattle and Sheep businesses; and – additional gains in General Cropping in the economic/
production orientated scenarios
What’s next?
• Identify front runners (next month) • Commence more detailed analysis:
– Other aspects of CAP payments (e.g. coupled payments; French redistributive analysis)
– Farm business analysis – Farmers’ response (SRUC/ JHI survey) – Economic & Environmental Impacts