Cannabis Cultivation onFederal Lands in California

In-Progress Review

17 Feb 2004

2Cleveland

115,674 plants460,000 acres

Sequoia49,826 plants1.1M acres

Los Padres34,673 plants

2M acres

Sierra41,775 plants

1.3M acres

Stanislaus42,716 plants 898,000 acres

Six Rivers23,148 plants / 1.09 acres

Mendocino24,798 plants889,884 acres

San Bernardino44,286 plants660,000 acres

Rising Drug Threat on Federal Lands

Sharp escalation of organized drug production, trafficking, and related violence on NFS lands, especially in California– 2.7M plants seized (2000-03)

– Meth labs/dump sites increasing

– Cultivation plots larger, more sophisticated

466,000 cannabis plants eradicated in CA worth $1.9B – 75% (350k) eradicated on public lands

Sources: US Forest Service and California’s Campaign Against Marijuana Planting, Oct 2003

National Forest Service

Bur. Land Management

Individual Public Land

8 of the Top 10 National Forests for Cannabis Eradication are in California

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100

200

300

400

500

'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03

Seizures in CA1994-2003 (USFS)

Rise Due to Organized Cultivation

In thousands

“Significant evidence of International Drug Trafficking Organizations operating on NFS lands” -- USFS

Traffickers knowingly target Federal lands for their large remote and un-patrolled areas

Drug Threat on CA Federal LandsDrug-Related Violence Against Tourists / Park Officials Rising

1 Week in California National Forests:

Sept 13 -- Los Padres NF – Hunter shot at by growers

Sept 14 – Sierra NF– Victim shot near 4,500-plant garden

Sept 16 – Los Padres NF – FS and County Raid team fired on by growers

Sept 16 – BLM Public Lands, Shasta Co., CA – CAMP and Shasta County deputies shoot out. Two growers shot and killed.

Sept 18 – Mendocino NF – FS K9 attacked by growers. Suspects drop assault and high caliber rifles while fleeing

Sept 19 – Butte County, CA – Butte County SD deputies shoot out, 2 growers shot and killed

Sept 19 – Mendocino County, CA - 34-year-old hacked to death with machete in marijuana garden

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ONDCP Requirement

“In response to this threat, during the 2004 growing season, NDIC will conduct a limited-scope pilot project that seeks to estimate the amount of cannabis being cultivated on public lands in the state of California, with the eventual goal of producing an annual scientific estimate of total domestic cannabis cultivation and production.”

--2004 National Drug Control Strategy

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“… a limited scope pilot project…”

Define “public lands…” for survey– All Federal lands, forest lands, subset

Project will NOT touch– Indoor cultivation– Private lands– “Non-crop lands” (deserts, steep slopes, etc)– Military lands– Native American or Indian Reservations

Carefully scope project – End-product boundaries– Methodology– Investment

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Preliminary Findings

Over 22 million acres of NFS lands in California

“Catch-22 Imagery” (resolution vs cost)– Affordable sensors lack resolution– Sensors with (possibly) adequate resolution are costly

Vital data exist, but may require full-scale collection

Ground truthing could be costly and complicate study

Project requires outside technical experience and infrastructure

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Preliminary Conclusions

Design the highest value product using lowest risk/cost methods

Scope project in 2004 to fit timeline and resources– Narrowly define “Federal” lands– Expand scope in 2005

Some critical work cannot begin until resources are in place– Technical personnel– Hardware / software / infrastructure

Minimize ground truthing without undermining survey credibility

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Multiple and Parallel Sources

CAMP Data

USFS Enforcement Data

DEA DCE/SP Data

National Guard CD Data

Civilian Govt Imagery

Commercial Imagery

Dept of Interior Data

Other Data

Replicate methodology / best practices used by other agencies for crop surveying

Collect data and intelligence from a wide range of sources

Synthesize/analyze data and intel to determine crop estimate and determine overall threat to public lands

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Envisioned End ProductContent, Use, and Distribution

Intelligence report: “Cannabis on Federal Lands in California: Threats and Estimated Cultivation”

Unclassified Executive Report (10 pages)– Interagency threat assessment

– Growth/sophistication of cannabis trade on Federal lands

– Probability estimate of CA Federal lands under cannabis cultivation

Restricted Annex (5 pages)

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Plot survey areas, ground truth, produce estimate

5-Phase Methodology

1. Organize and Assess FeasibilityDefine end-productSeek agency “buy-in”Determine resource needs

2. Pre-Survey PreparationDefine scope and methodologyProduce Predictive Cueing Layer Model

3. Imagery Analysis and Ground TruthPlot targeted survey areasConduct ground truthing in survey areas

4. Data Analysis and Final ReportIncorporate LEA intelligence trend analysisExtrapolate plot surveysEstimate cultivation on all CA federal lands

5. Institutionalize for 2005 Survey

DATACollect Data

Scope Project

Create Predictive Cueing Layer

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Project Plan & Timeline

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Project ManagementAgency Support and Functions

DOIBLM, PS

Insert roles/responsibility

USFS/USDAEnforcement, RSAC,

ARS, NASSMethodology

Threat AssessmentData collection

Remote Sensing Support

NGBCD, CHL

MethodologyPredictive Cueing Model

Data collection Ground Truthing Support

DEADCE/SP

Threat AssessmentIntelligence Trends

DCE/SP DataGround Truthing Coord

Other Agencies

Technical Exchange

Role/Responsibility• Overall project mgt• Interagency coord.• Prepare data request• Analytical production• Production of report

NDIC

P/T NDIC SupportGIS IAStatistician Non-Imagery AnalysisPublication of final report

NDIC Director

NDIC Gen Counsel

Imagery / GIS IAs

Project Officer

PM

Asst Director

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Progress to Date Work is underway in all five phases Meetings with 11 agencies

– Valuable technical exchange– Strong support at staff and management levels– But need backing of agency leadership

Data collection continuing in CA NGB plotting data--Predictive Cueing model on track Draft “Data Request” (due completion 2/28) Draft plan / methodology NDIC hiring GIS Analyst Identifying core issues for resolution

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Road Ahead

Next Steps Acquire critical resources (personnel, work space) Resolve legal issues Finalize project scope, methodology, project plan Brief ONDCP on proposed project scope/end product Submit “data request”

Initial Support from USDA and DOI Offer DOI/USDA to be primary customers of end-product GIS/Imagery Analysts (2) (USDA/RSAC) Collect eradication data (with geo-coordinates) Designate POC for planning team Specific support to be requested within weeks