Who chooses dynastic candidates?Philippine Senatorial Elections

Clarissa C. David, PhDProfessor, UP College of Mass Communication

Starting points and questions

Assume that political dynasties are unhealthy for a democracy, economic development, inclusivity

Know that dynasties dominate Philippine politics, especially at the local level

What about the national-level offices? The senate.

What types of voters tend to select dynastic families in national-level elections?

Reports consolidated findings from 3 papers

Does not include 2016 election

Dynasts remain in power because people vote for them

May not be true for local elections, but true for national ones

Lot of important work about the worsening breadth and depth of dynastic politics

Mendoza et al’s fat and thin dynasty classification especially powerful way of communicating the scale and scope of the problem

How do they remain in power? Capital of different kinds

Dynastic Senatorial Line-up16th Congress

● 2 sets of siblings● 3 sons of former presidents● Daughter of former vice president● 8 children of former senators● Wife of a former senator

17th Congress not as bad, has 8/24 clearly part of national dynasties

2016

election

Dominated by incumbents

And former senators

Source: David & San Pascua. (2015). Who votes for dynastic candidates? Building Inclusive Democracies in ASEAN, (eds Mendoza et al)

Candidates from national dynasties have better chances of winning● Defined as being a close relative of a nationally elected official (current or

former P, VP, Senator)● Outcome of % votes received, and whether candidate won (‘01, ‘04, ‘07, ‘10)● Controlling for: senator in past, married to celebrity, media celebrity,

incumbent

RESULT: after incumbency, dynasty is best predictor of votes gaining on average 11% more votes than another candidate, first-time candidates of political families have 8% advantage

Dynastic candidates are 3.6X more likely to win an election

Filipino voting patterns

Embarrassment of data, but limited knowledge

Vast international literature on vote choice

Local studies important because of myriad contextual factors that influence choice:

- Electoral laws- Party system- Voter options- Institutional set-ups

Do any of these help us understand why people vote for dynasts?

Local vs National DynastiesLocal elections National elections

Vote-buying and other forms of “retail cheating” or patronage-style campaigning

Votes, retail cheating gets too expensive

Locals know their candidates People know almost nothing about candidates for national office, outside of Pres and Vice Pres

Higher stakes Lower stakes (impact on daily life is lower, impact on behavior of the Senate is lower)=what’s the harm in letting Manny Pacquiao have a seat?

Candidate-selection cognitive task is (A) or (B) A + B + C + D + E … up to 12<= 12 names

Unique to the Philippines

The odd experience of voting for Senator

Nationally elected

Voting for 12 people in one election

Low-stakes decision, consequences aren’t local, and selecting one is not a “deselection” of another

Easy to add names (Ave national 7-8 names)

Parties * slates/tickets

Voter decision

12 Names + low information environment

=

reliance on heuristics

=

advantage celebrity/dynasty

High cognitive burden on voter

How voters combine candidates on a ballotMethod

● 2010 Exit Poll data from SWS (actual voted vs. vote intentions)

● n=52,573● Cluster analysis: how often candidates

co-occur on a voter’s set, network quantifies strength of co-occurrence, which candidates almost always together on a voter’s list?

Source: David & Legara. (2015). How voters combine candidates on the ballot: The case of the Philippine Senatorial Elections. Intl J of Public Opinion Res

Voters for Celeb + Dynast more likely:

RuralPoor

Low fill-up rateLow education

Voters likely to vote for celebrities are also likely to vote for dynastic candidates

for national elections(fame advantage)

Voting for dynastic candidates

● Previous paper looks at vote patterns for the cluster, putting together dynasties with celebrities. What is it for just dynastic candidates?

Method

● 2004, 2007, 2010 pre-election surveys● N range 1,177 - 1,916● For each voter how many dynastic candidates did they vote for? Hi/Lo

categories then logistic regression to predict

Source: David & San Pascual. (2016). Predicting vote choice for celebrity and political dynasty candidates in Philippine national elections. Philippine Political Science Journal.

Predictors of dynasty votes

Mechanism for education association? Possibly:

● Privileging of educational status of candidates, the highly educated will vote for the highly educated, and those are more likely to be dynastic

● As a group, the highly educated elite is not a big enough bloc to change the outcome of an election (save for the borderline candidates)

Paper 1* (pre-election polls) Paper 2** (exit polls)

Higher education (+)Social class (ns)Visayas (slightly more)Fill-up rate (+)

Higher education (+)Social class (D class more likely)NCR more likely in recent yearsFill-up rate (+)Urban (recent elections)

* PPSJ paper **Book chapter

Dynastic Senatorial Candidates’ Advantage

● Inherited fame, voter recall gives heuristic advantage (probably biggest)● Positive regard for familial ties● Political capital of family (getting in the right parties, slates, “machinery”

support)

● Elite support, selected by the wealthier and more educated voters (small advantage, not a lot of voters)

● In an important way, national dynasty=celebrity

Self-selection into the Senatorial election

If you or your spouse are not nationally (in)famous then don’t run for Senate

If you want to run for Senate and are not famous join a TV show

Chicken or egg? Does it matter?

Major player in healthy democracy: media

ChallengesHow to fix?

Anti-dynasty law

“Affirmative action” policy solutions to support non-dynastic candidates

Diversify field of candidates

Shore up political and electoral knowledge and education through the formal education system and the media system (not just during election years)

Is this all moot if/when federalism changes the landscape?

Thank you. ccdavid2@up.edu.ph