canadian mining eye - q4 2016 - ernst & · pdf fileweak finish for the canadian mining eye...

Weak finish for the Canadian Mining Eye in Q4 2016A Q&A with Nolan Watson,

President and CEO of Sandstorm Gold Ltd. page 4

Canadian Mining EyeQ4 2016

The Canadian Mining Eye index declined 13% during Q4 2016, compared with a 4% gain in Q3 2016. The Canadian Mining Eye index underperformed the S&P/TSX Composite index, which gained 4% during Q4 2016. The UK Mining Eye fell 8% during Q4 2016 marking the first quarterly decline in 2016, following gains of 35% and 19% in Q3 2016 and Q2 2016, respectively. The London Metal Exchange index (LMEX) gained 8% over the quarter. The S&P/TSX Composite Metals and Mining index decreased 12% in Q4 2016, following 3% declines in Q3 2016. The Canadian Mining Eye index’s decline was predominantly due to weakness in gold and nickel prices, offset partially by gains in both copper and zinc prices. Major index’s decline of 6% in Q4 2016 was

consistent with a 3% drop in Q3 2016. For the full year 2016, the Canadian Mining Eye index rose 61% which was better than 18% gains in S&P/TSX Composite index and 21% increase in LMEX. Meanwhile, the Canadian Mining Eye index was in-line with the UK Mining Eye and S&P/TSX Composite Metals and Mining index. Majors increased 42% in 2016 following a decline of 26% in 2015.

In a boost to gold demand, the metal is now accepted as an investment in Islamic finance, which under the Shariah law, was only allowed to be owned in physical form (such as jewellery). With this adoption of gold as an investment, the potential demand for gold and gold-based investments (such as ETFs) are expected

2 | Canadian Mining Eye Q4 2016

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Canadian Mining Eye index and peers, last 12 months

Source: EY, Thomson Datastream

Canadian Mining Eye UK Mining Eye (rebased)

FTSE All Share Mining (rebased) S&P/TSX Composite Metals & Mining (rebased)

S&P/ASX 300 Metals & Mining (rebased)

to increase.1 According to World Gold Council, the potential demand is expected to increase by roughly US$20 billion or around 500 tonnes by 2020, assuming just 1% contribution to the total estimated Islamic investment in financial assets at US$2 trillion, growing at an average rate of 16% annually.2 However, Standard and Poor’s estimates Islamic investment in financial assets to track towards US$5 trillion over the same period. The new standard is expected to be positive for Canadian gold miners as four Canadian gold miners feature in the top 10 gold producing miners in the world.3

• Gold: Following a flat trend in Q3 2016 and a gain of 7% in Q2 2016, the gold prices remained subdued by declining 12% in Q4 2016. The recent weakness can be attributed to oversupply market conditions, amounting to a surplus of around 250 tonnes, representing the highest quarterly surplus environment in the past decade, according to Thomson Reuters.4 Additionally, the Federal Reserve increased its key interest rate by 0.25% in December, putting downward pressure on gold prices.5 Overall, the gold prices moved up by 9% in 2016.

• Base metals: Copper prices increased 14% in Q4 2016 following the flat trend in Q3 2016. The considerable increase in copper prices was in part due to an anticipated increase in infrastructure spending by US newly elected President, Donald Trump, which is expected to boost demand for basic metals. In addition, increased demand for copper from China, the world’s largest copper consumer, on the back of improving macroeconomic conditions, provided further impetus to copper prices.6 Zinc prices increased 8% in Q4 2016, while nickel prices declined by 5%. Overall, in 2016 copper, nickel and zinc prices moved up by 17%, 13% and 61%, respectively.

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Canadian Mining Eye UK Mining Eye (rebased)

FTSE All Share Mining (rebased) S&P/TSX Composite Metals & Mining (rebased)

S&P/ASX 300 Metals & Mining (rebased)

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1 “More on How a Change in Islam’s Shariah Law Could Affect Gold Prices,” msn.com, 13 July 20162 “A New Shari’ah Standard For Gold,” CommodityOnline, 1 November 20163 S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global 4 “Physical gold market in largest surplus in a decade,” Mining.com, 27 October 20165 “Finally: Fed raises rates for first time in 2016,” CNN, 15 December 20166 “Dr. Copper hints mining sector officially out of intensive care,” Mining.com, 24 November 2016

Canadian Mining Eye Q4 2016 | 3

Canadian Mining Eye index, gold, copper and LMEX Index over Q4 2016

Canadian Mining Eye LMEX Index (rebased) Gold (rebased) Copper (rebased)


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OutlookInvestors will continue to view gold as a safe haven investment, given the uncertainty surrounding the various policies and plans under the Trump presidency.7 Heading into 2017, gold prices are expected to increase compared with 2016, underscored by higher geopolitical risks, given upcoming elections in Europe, improving supply-deficit market conditions, and higher demand from Asian countries, primarily China and India (post demonization of cash currencies). Key headwinds include rising economic confidence in the US, evidenced in part by a 0.25% hike in Fed rate in December, coupled with a possibility of further hikes in 2017.8

On the base metals front, copper prices are expected to increase due to encouraging infrastructure spending plans (primarily power grid and railway network) in China and Trump’s financial stimulus of US$1 trillion in infrastructure spending. However, the former factor is anticipated to weigh more on the positive outlook of copper prices, as China’s copper consumption (45 to 55% of global consumption) is higher than that of the US (8 to 9%).9 The underlying fundamentals for zinc continue to be healthy, underscored by favorable supply deficit market conditions, supported in part by the recent closure of Century and Lisheen mines and the shutdown of ~500ktpa of production at Glencore.10 Encouraged by the recovery in commodities prices in the latter half of 2016 and anticipated benefits from improved productivity and enhanced profitability, the outlook for the Canadian Mining industry remains healthy.

Canadian Mining Eye index, gold, copper and LMEX Index over Q4 2016

Canadian Mining Eye LMEX Index (rebased) Gold (rebased) Copper (rebased)


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7 “Trump’s win: Canadian Implications,” Barclays, 9 November 2016 8 “Gold Sector Forecasts,” Credit Suisse, 6 December 2016; “Global Gold Outlook: More Caution Advised,” RBC

Capital Markets, 11 December 20169 “Base & precious metals outlook,” Credit Suisse, November 2016; “Canadian Base Metal Equities,” Macquarie

Research, 11 November 2016 10 “Metals & Mining,” Dundee Capital Markets, 14 October 2016; “Divergent Paths - Commodity Outlook Update and

Q3/16 Base Metals Preview,” Canaccord Genuity, 24 October 2016


Nolan Watson of Sandstorm Gold speaks to EY BC Transactions Leader, Michelle Grant, about the capital markets in the mining sector.Following are the highlights of their conversation:

Q: What’s your outlook for the sector in 2017?

A: I’m excited for 2017 because I think it will be the first year in a while that will be relatively balanced. Commodities, in particular, have a lot of boom and bust cycles and it appears that 2017 could be a year that we could actually get down to transacting business. It’s hard to do deals when prices are moving all over the place — deals get done when valuations get in a certain range from a buyer and a seller perspective. It feels like 2017 will be based on the fundamentals of each company and how they perform as opposed to wide industry swings.

Q: Certainly over the last few years capital markets haven’t been very favourable to mining companies. What are your thoughts on streaming deals and what role do you see them playing in the market in 2017?

A: I think streaming has become an increasing part of both the capital markets and the mining and metals sector. My prediction is that 2017 will be a year when many streaming deals will be done. That said, the equity portion of the capital markets are working better than they were a year and a half ago, and I think that there will be reasonable equity for companies with good projects. That will make it more competitive and possibly more challenging for companies like Sandstorm to get streams done.

If you look back at 2014 through the beginning of 2016, most of the streaming deals were just to fix companies balance sheets and such deals did not provide new capital to go build projects. We’re starting to move back into the phase of the cycle where not all projects will be moving forward but good ones will be. Although equity will be available for those projects, it will be unlikely that those projects can be 100% financed with equity. So I think streaming will still have an important role.

Q&A with Nolan Watson, President and CEO, Sandstorm Gold Ltd.


Q: Can you share your perspective on the streaming industry?

A: Over the years there have been different levels of competition in the streaming and royalty space. Back in 2004, there was almost no competition. Over the years, competition grew from new market entrants as well as improving equity markets, and by 2009 it was incredibly easy for mining companies to raise equity. All you had to say was that you were a mining company and you could raise nearly unlimited amounts of capital. The equity markets were broken in the other direction — they were being indiscriminate about capital and projects. You had a high number of streaming companies, a high level of competition from equity markets and therefore the availability of streaming product was low. Because of this, the streaming industry began to consolidate itself and there was a lower level of competition again.

Over the last few years there has been another expansion of royalty companies. I think we’re moving into the situation in 2017-18 where there’s high competition but also high availability of product. When the markets get really strong from an equity perspective again, I believe it will be back to high competition/low availability of product. I think the industry will have to start consolidating itself again if wants to be productive and not have too many streaming companies sitting out there. That’s how I see the next two to four years unfolding.

Q: How will you position Sandstorm to be successful?

A: For the next two years we need to buy as many streams and royalties as we can get at a reasonable valuation. We find deals by trying to get there before other streaming and royalty companies do. We also like to focus on situations that are undervalued so you have a motivated counter-party. Sandstorm is not the biggest company, nor do we have the highest trading multiple — but we do have the ability to sit down and design deals that are creative, flexible and provide a good return for Sandstorm shareholders. Each of our deals look very different from others.

Q: We hear a lot about innovation in this sector. Is there much innovation around capital raising?

A: I think innovation in financing is why we exist. It’s important to me that we’re always staying relevant and changing the way we do things to get streams and royalties. What speaks to our level of innovation is our ability to play in different parts of the capital structure, and to be willing to do it in different ways for companies that are in different stages of development.

One of the ways we’re trying to innovate is that we’re trying to build a group of interested mining investors so that when we approach a mining company, we can say things like, “We will buy a stream of royalties from you. We know you need to raise X number on the equity side to get your mine into production. Sandstorm will backstop all, or a portion of that, knowing that we have strong demand on the back end.” It’s almost replacing, to a certain extent, the role of equity and banker so they don’t need to deal with a banker separately. The more we can approach companies and offer Sandstorm as a one-stop shop, the more successful we’ll be.


Fundraising on the TSX and TSXV, 2010–16

1 Initial public offering (IPO) — TSX and TSXV as primary exchanges of listing.2 Funds raised from follow-on issue of shares and private placements.

Mining All TSX and TSXVMining as % of all TSX and TSXV

New issues Further issues2 Total issues New issues Further issues

Total issues Total proceeds

Number of IPOs1

Proceeds in C$m

Number of money-

raising issues

Proceeds in C$m

Proceeds in C$m

Proceeds in C$m

Proceeds in C$m

Proceeds in C$m

%

Q4 2016 0 0 347 1,526 1,526 824 14,906 15,731 10%

Q3 2016 0 0 456 2,542 2,542 156 12,889 13,045 19%

Q2 2016 0 0 473 2,541 2,541 355 20,063 20,418 12%

Q1 2016 0 0 265 2,784 2,784 241 12,726 12,967 21%

Q4 2015 0 0 316 543 543 2,271 7,346 9,617 6%

Q3 2015 1 135 253 724 859 1,634 7,944 9,577 9%

Q2 2015 0 0 267 2,164 2,164 1,677 19,542 21,219 10%

Q1 2015 0 0 358 2,986 2,986 1,190 16,122 17,312 17%

Q4 2014 1 1 335 2,096 2,096 1,407 9,449 10,855 19%

Q3 2014 1 1 331 1,386 1,386 771 14,303 15,074 9%

Q2 2014 0 0 347 1,334 1,334 2,480 14,495 16,975 8%

Q1 2014 0 0 403 4,042 4,042 888 13,988 14,876 27%

Q4 2013 2 1 386 4,017 4,019 1,452 12,683 14,135 28%

Q3 2013 0 0 320 667 667 1,645 7,179 8,824 8%

Q2 2013 5 5 284 1,065 1,070 1,537 9,291 10,828 10%

Q1 2013 0 0 415 1,157 1,157 938 8,898 9,836 12%

Q4 2012 19 347 492 2,658 3,005 2,508 12,326 14,834 20%

Q3 2012 6 9 357 2,984 2,993 344 13,430 13,774 22%

Q2 2012 10 11 331 1,125 1,136 1,050 9,778 10,828 10%

Q1 2012 14 23 475 3,132 3,155 506 16,581 17,087 18%

Q4 2011 11 30 410 1,934 1,964 1,041 10,236 11,276 17%

Q3 2011 23 107 366 2,160 2,268 1,315 9,027 10,342 22%

Q2 2011 20 107 467 2,696 2,803 2,887 12,221 15,107 19%

Q1 2011 16 119 678 5,322 5,440 1,656 12,702 14,358 38%

Q4 2010 35 661 860 7,249 7,910 4,616 15,714 20,330 39%

Q3 2010 18 67 420 1,985 2,052 1,615 6,488 8,103 25%

Q2 2010 17 491 499 4,059 4,550 2,977 11,567 14,545 31%

Q1 2010 23 93 536 3,144 3,237 1,826 9,178 11,003 29%

2016 0 0 1,541 9,393 9,393 1,577 60,583 62,160 15%

2015 1 135 1,194 6,417 6,552 6,771 50,954 57,725 11%

2014 2 1 1,416 8,858 8,859 5,545 52,234 57,780 15%

2013 7 7 1,405 6,907 6,913 5,572 38,050 43,623 16%

2012 49 391 1,655 9,899 10,290 4,408 52,115 56,523 18%

2011 70 362 1,921 12,112 12,474 6,899 44,185 51,084 24%

2010 93 1,312 2,315 16,437 17,749 11,034 42,947 53,981 33%

Source: EY analysis of TSX and TSXV market statistics, as reported


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Value of TSX and TSXV mining universe and as % of all TSX and TSXV, 2009–16

Source: EY analysis of data from TSX and TSXV Market Intelligence Group, as reported; market values as at quarter end

Mining market cap Mining as a % of all TSX and TSXV (RH scale)

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TSX and TSXV mining admissions and delistings since 2008

Source: EY analysis of data from TSX and TSXV Market Intelligence Group, as reported; includes placements, introductions and readmissions; excludes transfers between TSX and TSXV

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Index constituents selected at quarter end

Q4 2016 MV (C$m)

Q4 2016 MV (C$m)

Q4 2016 MV (C$m)

Centamin 2,602 Continental Gold 623 Katanga Mining 267 Alamos Gold 2,473 Arizona Mining 611 NGEx Resources 247 OceanaGold 2,389 Endeavour Silver 604 Atalaya Mining 246 IAMGOLD 2,355 Seabridge Gold 598 Bear Creek Mining 242 Pretium Resources 1,999 Altius Minerals 549 Lithium Americas 241 Ivanhoe Mines 1,985 Richmont Mines 549 GoldMining 239 NovaGold Resources 1,965 Silvercorp Metals 523 Lydian International 220 Endeavour Mining 1,874 Premier Gold Mines 515 Platinum Group Metals 219 Centerra Gold 1,832 Imperial Metals 496 Sabina Gold & Silver 216 HudBay Minerals 1,814 Capstone Mining 488 Largo Resources 208 First Majestic Silver 1,686 Gold Reserve 474 Gabriel Resources 204 Torex Gold Resources 1,656 First Mining Finance 464 Primero Mining 200 SEMAFO 1,436 Trevali Mining 454 Auryn Resources 197 Silver Standard Resources 1,434 Roxgold 448 Kennady Diamonds 189 Kirkland Lake Gold LTD. 1,425 Teranga Gold 440 Red Eagle Mining 181 Osisko Gold Royalties 1,396 Osisko Mining 392 Alexco Resource 168 TMAC Resources 1,277 Sherritt International 391 Chesapeake Gold 162 Nevsun Resources 1,249 Nemaska Lithium 388 AuRico Metals 151 MAG Silver 1,192 Denison Mines 379 Mason Graphite 148 McEwen Mining 1,177 Great Panther Silver 369 Timmins Gold 148 Lucara Diamond 1,162 Dundee Precious Metals 361 Paladin Energy 146 Fortuna Silver Mines 1,115 Mandalay Resources 361 Atlantic Gold 141 Dominion Diamond 1,081 Argonaut Gold 336 Americas Silver 138 Mountain Province Diamonds 1,074 Sierra Metals 334 Anfield Gold 136 Guyana Goldfields 1,045 Golden Star Resources 325 NewCastle Gold 134 Klondex Mines 933 Perseus Mining 320 Barkerville Gold Mines 131 Orocobre 915 Polymet Mining 318 Bacanora Minerals 112 Asanko Gold 832 Belo Sun Mining 316 West African Resources 106 Stornoway Diamond 828 North American Palladium 312 Sandstorm Gold 802 Fission Uranium 310 China Gold International Resources 785 Corsa Coal 294 Total universe MV C$m 279,476 Northern Dynasty Minerals 733 Dalradian Resources 284 Top 20 MV C$m 188,913 NexGen Energy 713 Victoria Gold 282 Total universe excl Top 20 MV C$m 90,563 Alacer Gold 654 Ascot Resources 274 MV of Mining Eye constituents 69,006

Gold Standard Ventures 636 Wesdome Gold Mines 272 MV of Mining Eye constituents as a % of MV of Total universe excl Top 20

76%

Lundin Gold 624 Integra Gold 268

MV — Market value

Shading represents index entrants

Changes to the Mining Eye indexThere were 11 changes in index constituents in Q4 2016. New Gold moved to the Top 20 index. Anglo Pacific Group, GoGold Resources, Vista Gold, Almaden Minerals, Energy Fuels, Golden Queen Mining, Midas Gold, NioCorp Developments, Kirkland Lake Gold, and Newmarket Gold exited the index and were replaced by index entrants highlighted in the table above.

Source: EY, TSX and TSXV Market Intelligence Group


Index dataIn

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Mining Eye index and S&P/TSX Composite index performance, last 12 months


Mining Eye S&P/TSX Composite (rebased)

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Mining Eye index and S&P/TSX Composite index since 2008


Mining Eye S&P/TSX Composite (rebased) Top 20 — TSX Mining

If you would like to view the raw index data, please contact:

Jay Patel EY Canadian Mining & Metals Transactions Leader +1 416 943 3861


The Canadian Mining Eye tracks Canadian mining sector performance of 100 TSX and TSXV mid-tier and junior companies with market capitalizations at the end, broadly falling between C$2.6b and C$106m. These companies trade on the TSX and TSXV, though some of them are headquartered outside Canada. Movements and analysis of the index are reported quarterly. From Q1 2014, we have retroactively reset the index to Top 20 and Next 100

(from Top 25 and Next 100) based on the market capitalizations at the end of 2013. The historical data has also been reset for comparatives purpose.

All company information is sourced from publicly available sources, including company websites and regulatory announcements.

Jay PatelCanadian Mining & Metals Transactions Leader Ernst & Young LLP+1 416 943 [email protected]

Canadian contactsJim MacLeanCanadian Mining & Metals Leader Ernst & Young Inc. +1 416 943 [email protected]

Blake LangillOntario Mining & Metals Leader Ernst & Young Inc. +1 416 943 3556 [email protected]

Zahid FazalQuebec Mining & Metals Leader Ernst & Young Inc.+1 514 879 [email protected]

Michelle GrantBC Mining & Metals Transactions Leader Ernst & Young Inc.+1 604 899 [email protected]

Theophile YameogoCanadian Mining & Metals Advisory Leader Ernst & Young Inc. +1 416 943 3832 [email protected]

EY Global Mining & Metals Leader Miguel Zweig +55 11 2573 3363 [email protected]

EY Oceania Scott Grimley +61 3 9655 2509 [email protected]

China and Mongolia Peter Markey +86 21 2228 2616 [email protected]

EY Japan Andrew Cowell +81 3 3503 3435 [email protected]

Africa Wickus Botha +27 11 772 3386 [email protected]

Commonwealth of Independent States Boris Yatsenko +7 495 755 98 60 [email protected]

France, Luxemburg, Maghreb, MENA Christian Mion +33 1 46 93 65 47 [email protected]

India Anjani Agrawal +91 22 6192 0150 [email protected]

United Kingdom and Ireland Lee Downham +44 20 7951 2178 [email protected]

Canada Jim MacLean +1 416 943 3674 [email protected]

Brazil Afonso Sartorio +55 11 2573 3074 [email protected]

Chile María Javiera Contreras +562 2676 1492 [email protected]

Service line contactsEY Global Advisory Leader Paul Mitchell +61 2 9248 5110 [email protected]

EY Global Assurance Leader Alexei Ivanov +495 228 3661 [email protected]

EY Global IFRS Leader Tracey Waring +61 3 9288 8638 [email protected]

EY Global Tax Leader Andrew van Dinter +61 3 8650 7589 [email protected]

EY Global Transactions Leader Lee Downham +44 20 7951 2178 [email protected]

Area contacts

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The views of third parties set out in this publication are not necessarily the views of the global EY organization or its member firms. Moreover, they should be seen in the context of the time they were made.

How EY’s Global Mining & Metals Network can help your businessWith a volatile outlook for the sector, the global mining and metals industry is focused on how to maintain a strong and flexible balance sheet while preparing for future growth. The sector is also faced with the increased challenges of improving productivity, access to capital, dealing with increased transparency, maintaining license to operate and cybersecurity.

EY’s Global Mining & Metals Network is where people and ideas come together to help mining and metals companies meet the issues of today and anticipate those of tomorrow by developing solutions to meet these challenges. It brings together a worldwide team of professionals to help you succeed — a team with deep technical experience in providing assurance, tax, transactions and advisory services to the mining and metals sector. Ultimately it enables us to help you meet your goals and compete more effectively.

canadian mining eye - q4 2016 - ernst & · pdf fileweak finish for the canadian mining eye...

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