canadian attitudes towards the upcoming u.s. electionfor time magazine october 25, 2004 ......

Canadian Attitudes Towards the Upcoming U.S. Election

for Time Magazine

www.ekos.comOctober 25, 2004

Methodology

Telephone survey of the general public1237 interviews with a national random sample of Canadians 18 years of age and older

Interview period: October 13-17, 2004National results valid within 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20

The margin of error increases when the results are sub-dividedIt should also be noted that the refusal rate and other measurement errors could also increase the margin of error

All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample’s regional, gender and age composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

All Survey ResultsCanadians’ Outlook on America

Canadians’ Outlook on America

A troubled Canadian public concerned about their American friends

Best friends, BUT…(sleeping with an insomniac elephant is scary!)Canadians demonstrate a conviction of moral superiority but lesspower and wealthCanadian optic on Americans leans to positive, but views of Bush are cartoonish and unremittingly negative

U.S. overwhemingly regarded as Canada’s closest friendQ: Which country would you say is Canada's closest friend?

8

4

9

12

67

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Great Britian

DK/NR

The United States

France

Base: All Canadians; October 13-17, 2004, n=1237

Other

Canada vs. the U.S. – nicer, but poorer

671670…has better educated citizens

211681…is more respected internationally

14689…is friendlier

12591…has more tolerant citizens

10

17

Canada

88

78

The U.S.

0

2

No real difference

4…has wealthier citizens

2

DK/NR

…is more influential on the world stage

Q: Which country would you say …?


Q: And thinking broadly about the US' role in the world, which of the following two terms BEST describes that role? Would you say it is . . .

America’s role in the world: self-interested bully?

3

6

37

54

0 25 50 75 100

DK/NR

World police officer

World bully

Neither


…world bully OR world police officer?

1

2

18

78

0 25 50 75 100

DK/NR

Looking out for its own self-interests

Striving for a more secure and safer world

Neither

…striving for a more secure and safer world OR looking out for its own self-interests?

1

1

59

18

24

42

17

39

0 25 50 75 100

DK/NR Negative (1-2) Neutral (3) Positive(4-5)

Bush, not Americans in general, viewed negativelyQ: All things considered, how would you describe your personal views of …?

…Americans

…George W. Bush

Base: All Canadians; October 13-17, 2004, half sample

All Survey ResultsCurrent Optic on Canada-U.S. Relations

Current optic on Canada-U.S. relations

Mixed views on relations with the U.S.Relations with the U.S. seen as mixed, but not in crisis (no clear sense of trajectory)Canadians less concerned about ‘Americanization’; more confident in own identitySignificant fault lines across these issues:

Quebeckers (particularly BQ supporters), NDP supporters and youth more negative towards the U.S.

Alberta, the Prairies and Conservatives more receptive to the U.S. and Bush

27

30

32

37

40

33

0 25 50 75 100

Sep./Oct. 03

Oct. 04

Poor (1-3) Neither good nor bad (4) Good (5-7)

View of Canada-U.S. relations leans to positive…Q: How would you currently describe relations between Canada and the U.S?


1

1

1

1

33

37

34

40

37

33

39

25

29

29

26

35

0 25 50 75 100

Sep./Oct. 03

Feb. 04

May 04

Oct. 04

DK/NR Worsening (1-3) Staying the same (4) Improving (5-7)

…but no clear trajectoryQ: All things considered, do you think relations between Canada and the U.S. are improving or worsening?


Concern with ‘Americanization’ decliningQ: Over the last 10 years, do you think Canada has become more like the United States, less like the

United States, or has there been no change?

Base: All Canadians; Sep./Oct. 03, n=2,001Base: All Canadians; October 13-17, 2004, n=1237

50 51

33 3143

4239

55555856

221710

22

89101010

333737 3933 33

40

0

25

50

75

100

Dec-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04

More like the U.S. Less like the U.S. No change

Q: In the future, would you like to see Canada become more like the United States, less like the United States, or would you like things to remain as they are?

Canadians increasingly confident in own national identity


159

36 34

912

9

1514138

5445

42

50

3942

475154

3739

48

4138

42 44

0

25

50

75

100

Dec-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04

More like the U.S. Less like the U.S. Remain the same

All Survey ResultsViews on the U.S. Presidential Election

Views on the U.S. Presidential Election

A historic U.S. election; Canadians passive but concerned bystanders

High attention; sense that stakes for Canada eclipse our own electionReal, profound choices for Americans

Q: How much attention have you been paying to the current Presidential election campaign in the United States? Would you say . . .

11

21

41

27

0 25 50 75 100

Little attention

A moderate amount of attention

A great deal of attention

Canadians paying attention to the presidential election

No attention whatsoever


68%

Q: And how important do you think the result of this election will be for Canada? Would you say . . .

Presidential election seen as very important for Canada


2 4 8

44 42

0

25

50

75

100

DK/NR Not at all important Not very important Somewhat important Very important

12% not very important

86% important

527 27

42

0

25

50

75

100

DK/NR Less (1-2) About the same (3) Greater (4-5)

Q: Do you think the overall impacts of the upcoming US election on Canada’s economy, security and social values will be less or greater than the impacts of the last Canadian federal election?

Impact of US election greater than impact of Cdn. election


Q: Which of the following statements is closer to your own point of view?

U.S. at the crossroads…

4

35

61

0 25 50 75 100

DK/NR

George Bush and John Kerry represent profoundly differentchoices and that this election presents a real crossroads to very

different futures

The United States is on a fairly set path and will keep moving in that direction regardless of who wins the next US

Presidential election


Q: And will the future be better or worse if George Bush is re-elected? Would you say . . .

…and future feared worse with Bush at the helm

Base: Those who feel the U.S. is at “a real crossroads”; October 13-17, 2004, n=747

520

56

153

0

25

50

75

100

DK/NR Much worse Worse Better Much better

76% worse

18% better

All Survey ResultsWeighing the Options: Kerry vs. Bush

Weighing the Options: Kerry vs. Bush

Bush Bad/Kerry GoodA stylized portrait of a dark and dangerous Bush-led America versus a brighter, safer, Kerry-led AmericaBush seen as unwitting architect of instability and dangerHuge preference for Kerry; sense of razor-thin margin leaning for Bush

6

2

4

3

5

4

54

67

43

41

36

40

26

17

38

42

41

24

14

14

15

15

19

32

0 25 50 75 100


Bush win negative impact overall, but mixed on securityQ: What impact would a George W. Bush win have on…?

…world peace and stability

…Canada’s economy

…Canada-U.S. relations

…North American security

…trade relations between Canada and the U.S.

…the quality of North America’s environment


9

13

10

9

7

7

13

10

12

13

9

12

45

38

36

35

32

26

33

39

42

43

51

55

0 25 50 75 100


Kerry win seen as having a positive or neutral impactQ: What impact would a John Kerry win have on…?

…world peace and stability


…Canada-U.S. relations

…North American security

…trade relations between Canada and the U.S.

…the quality of North America’s environment


Comparative impacts of a Kerry/Bush victory

+69 Kerry+29-40…the quality of North America’s environment

+58 Kerry+30-28…trade relations between Canada and the U.S.

+68 Kerry+42-26…Canada-U.S. relations

+96 Kerry+43-53…world peace and stability

+38 Kerry+30-8…North American security

Net difference (Positive – Negative)

-17

George W. Bush

+20

John Kerry

+37 Kerry

Net Advantage


Q: What impact would a [George W. Bush/John Kerry] win have on…?

Base: All Canadians; October 13-17, 2004

2

7

66

22

17

32

16

39

0 25 50 75 100

DK/NR Very little trust (1-3) Moderate amount of trust (4) A lot of trust (5-7)

Kerry seen as more trustworthy than BushQ: How much trust do you have in....


John Kerry

George W. Bush

1

4

45

10

43

50

11

36

0 25 50 75 100

DK/NR Fearful Neither fearful nor safer Safer

Bush win provokes fear, Kerry win more neutral feelingsQ: And thinking more broadly, would you feel safer, fearful, or neither if … won?


John Kerry

George W. Bush

Q: Would you say the George Bush's policies and actions have made the world . . .

Bush believed to have made the world less safe


3

22

6

70

0 25 50 75 100

…less safe

Neither

…more safe

DK/NR

14

0

1

44

41

0 25 50 75 100

9

3

4

19

64

0255075100

Kerry desired winner, but Bush re-election slightly more likely

Q: Who would you LIKE to see win the election?

John Kerry

DK/NR

Ralph Nader

George W. Bush

None of the above


Q: Who would you think WILL win the election?

All Survey ResultsTerrorism, Security andDefence in North America

Terrorism, Security and Defence in North America

Real terror, but not here; we must, however, be vigilantBroad subscription to reality of war on terrorGrowing opposition to missile defenceGeneralized sense that we are coasting, piggybacking, and punching under our own weight in areas of defence and securityParadox of subscription to security ethic despite picayune sense of imminent national risk

2 35 9 54

0 25 50 75 100

DK/NR Disagree (1-2) Neither (3) Agree (4-5)

Bush’s “global war on terror” seen as a realityQ: Please tell me the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following.

I agree with President Bush that there is a global war on terror


Q: How would you rate Canada's participation in that war? Would you say we are doing too little, too much, or about the right amount?

Response to terrorism adequate, but lean is to doing more

2

2

58

38

0 25 50 75 100

DK/NR

Too much

Too little

About the right amount

Base: Those who think there is a war on teror; October 13-17, 2004, half sample

Q: Would you say you support or oppose Canada's participation in the United States' ballistic missile defence program for North America?

Participation in missile defence

9

9

28

29

24

0 25 50 75 100

DK/NR

Oppose

Strongly oppose

Strongly support


Support

Q: Do you think the US would punish Canada in some way if we don't participate in the missile defence program?

4

2670

DK/NR

Yes No

53% Oppose

37% Support

1 24 13 62

0 25 50 75 100

DK/NR Disagree (1-2) Neither (3) Agree (4-5)

Canada’s military seen as needing greater independenceQ: Please tell me the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following.


Canada relies too much on the US military for our own defense

Q: Some people say that they have avoided traveling to the US since September 11th. What about you personally, would you say you have . . .

Canadians not avoiding travel to the U.S.

1

14

41

44

0 25 50 75 100

DK/NR

…continued to travel to the U.S.

…avoided traveling to the U.S.

…do not really travel much to the U.S.


Q: How likely do you think it is that Canada will suffer from a terrorist attack in the coming year?

Likelihood of terrorist attacks in Canada – “not”


2 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 1

47

12 12

49

3634 3441 44

3934 45

53 53 49

5041

504954

51059 1014 9

0

25

50

75

100

Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04

DK/NR Not very likely (1-2) Somewhat likely (3-5) Very likely (6-7)

All Survey ResultsWar in Iraq

War in Iraq

The Iraq war in the rear-view mirror: ambiguity banishedOverwhelming consensus of “rightness” of Canadian positionDramatic decline in initial ambiguity (Canada right but U.S. justified too); replaced with strong consensus that U.S. was wrong and Canada was rightSpurious conviction that dissenting position produced corrosive effects on U.S. outlook

Cdns. stand behind decision not to participate in Iraq war


Q: In hindsight, do you think that Canada was justified in its decision NOT to join US led forces in Iraq?

1

1584

DK/NR

Yes No

War in Iraq increasingly seen as unjustifiedQ: In hindsight, do you think that the United States was justified in its decision to invade Iraq?

32

22

40 44 36 37

53 50 5455

64

74

0

25

50

75

100

Apr-03 Jun-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04

Yes No


2

72

15

11

2

67

21

11

0 25 50 75 100

Oct. 04Sep./Oct. 03

Canadians believe position on Iraq had negative effectQ: All things considered, what impact do you think Canada’s position on Iraq has had on relations with

the United States?

Positive impact (5-7)

Negative impact (1-3)

DK/NR

No impact (4)


All Survey ResultsDivisions and Fault Lines

Among the CanadianPublic

Divisions and Fault Lines Among the Canadian Public

More consensus than division on most issues, however, there are some key differences:

Quebec is most negatively disposed to the U.S. and to BushAlberta, the Prairies and conservatives much more favourably oriented to Bush (and the U.S.)Young Canadians express higher level of concern with Bush and current American directionHigher SES Canadians more supportive of Kerry and more concernedwith BushNDP and BQ supporters very anti-Bush and American foreign policy Women somewhat more pro-KerryIronically, conservatives in Canada are more favourable to the U.S. whereas American Democrats and liberals more favourable to Canada

For more information:

Frank Graves, [email protected]

Andrew Sullivan,Vice [email protected]

t: 613 235 7215

canadian attitudes towards the upcoming u.s. electionfor time magazine october 25, 2004 ......

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