canadian apartment investment conference 2014...3 . record price difference between low and high...

CBRE Limited

CANADIAN APARTMENT INVESTMENT CONFERENCE 2014

Date September 10, 2014

2

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

Q2

2014

Sales to Listings R

atio R

esal

e H

ome

Pric

e ($

2002

)

Average Resale Home Price Sales to Listings RatioSource: Canadian Real Estate Association

CANADIAN RESALE HOUSING MARKET

3

RECORD PRICE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND HIGH RISE

Source: RealNet

$441,144 +2%

$685,413 +6%

$224,269 +14%

4

60

100

140

180

220

260

300

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Q22014

Inde

x =

100

(199

2)

National Avg. Home Price National Avg. 2-Bdrm Monthly Rent Personal Income Per Capita

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Conference Board of Canada

AFFORDABILITY GAP CONTINUES TO WIDEN

5

CANADA TOTAL NUMBER OF PERMANENT RESIDENTS 1985-2013

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,00019

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

13

Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada

6

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Inde

x =

100

(198

8)

Calgary Vancouver Toronto Montreal

IMMIGRATION: FUELS DEMAND

*Forecast

Source: Statistics Canada

7

2003 PERMANENT RESIDENTS DISTRIBUTION

Other 1%

Saskatchewan 1% Manitoba

3%

Alberta 7%

British Columbia 16%

Quebec 18%

Ontario 54%

8

TORONTO SHARE OF PERMANENT RESIDENTS 2003-2013

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Source: Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation

9

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q22014

10-YrAvg.

Source: Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation

CANADIAN MULTI-FAMILY VACANCY RATE

10

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Ottawa Montreal Toronto Vancouver Edmonton Calgary

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

MULTI-FAMILY VACANCY RATE BY MARKET, MID-YEAR 2014

11

MULTI-FAMILY VACANCY RATE, MID-YEAR 2014

Source: CBRE Limited and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

(6%)

(4%)

(2%)

0%

2%

4%

6%

(120)

(80)

(40)

0

40

80

120

Vaca

ncy

Rat

e (%

)

Y-o-

Y C

hang

e (b

ps)

Y-o-Y Vacancy Rate Change Vacancy Rate

12

PURPOSE-BUILT RENTAL CONSTRUCTION

Source: CMHC, Q2 2014

0.0%

0.4%

0.8%

1.2%

1.6%

2.0%

2.4%

2.8%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Toronto Montreal Vancouver Edmonton Calgary Ottawa

H1 2013 Starts H1 2014 Starts % of Inventory 2013 % of Inventory 2014

13

Toronto Montreal Vancouver Edmonton Calgary OttawaRental 416 794 1,124 506 150 93Condominium 7,589 4,499 3,511 492 2,450 668

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

APARTMENT UNIT STARTS 2014 YTD (MAY)

14

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

Bachelor One-Bdr Two-Bdr Three-Bdr Overall Avg.

Mon

thly

Ren

tal R

ate

Mid-year 2013 Mid-year 2014

RENTAL RATE BY UNIT TYPE

Source: CBRE Research

15

RENTAL RATE BY MARKET - MID-YEAR 2013 / 2014

Source: CBRE Research

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Vancouver Toronto Calgary Edmonton Ottawa Montreal

Mid Year 2013Mid-year 2014

16

Y-O-Y RENTAL GROWTH RATES, YTD 2014

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Composite Rental Rate Y-o-Y Rental Growth Rate

17

AVERAGE RENTAL GROWTH - TORONTO

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Q2

2014

Inde

x =

100

(200

0)

Class A Office (Downtown) Class A Office (Suburban) Industrial MultifamilySource: CBRE Research

18

MULTI-FAMILY RENTAL RATES

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,40019

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

14 Y

TD

Bachelor 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed Average

19

ONTARIO ANNUAL RENT INCREASE GUIDELINE

Source: Ontario Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing and CIBC World Markets Inc.

5.4%

6.0%

4.9%

3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8%

3.0% 3.0%

2.6% 2.9%

3.9%

2.9% 2.9%

1.5%

2.1%

2.6%

1.4%

1.8% 2.1%

0.7%

3.1%

2.5%

0.8%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%19

91

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Guideline Increase Maximum Increase (+2.5%)

20

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q2 2014

Cap

italiz

atio

n R

ate

Source: CBRE Limited

MULTI-FAMILY CAPITALIZATION RATES

21

MULTI-FAMILY CAP RATES BY MARKET

Source: CBRE Limited

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q2 2014

Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Toronto Ottawa Montreal Halifax

22

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q2 2014

10-Yr Bond Yield Office - CBD A Industrial - A & B Retail - Neighbourhood Multi-Res - High Rise A

129 bps

238 bps

NATIONAL CAP RATES VS. 10-YR BOND YIELD

Source: CBRE Research, Bank of Canada

23

Parklea Apartments 151 East Keith Road Vancouver, BC Price: $25,500,000

# of Suites: 88

Price Per Suite: $289,773

Cap Rate: 3.40%

Vendor: Private Investor

Purchaser: Starlight

Date Sold: March 2014

24

Winston House 1137 Bute Street Vancouver, BC Price: $8,100,000

# of Suites: 33


Cap Rate: 2.70%


Purchaser: Private Investor

Date Sold: July 2014

25

Fuzion on Whyte 10201-82 Avenue Edmonton, AB Price: $32,750,000

# of Suites: 105


Cap Rate: n/a

Vendor: Private Developer

Purchaser: Pension Fund

Date Sold: Current

26

1000 Pratt Avenue Montreal, QC

Price: $9,350,000

# of Suites: 49


Cap Rate: 4.8%



Date Sold: April 2014

27

Westmount Square 1 & 3 Westmount Square Montreal, QC Price: $39,803,531

# of Suites: 87

Price Per Suite:

$473,852

Cap Rate: 3.7%

Vendor: Private Equity

Purchaser: Private Equity

Date Sold: August 2014

28

The Willow 300 Royale Avenue Dartmouth, NS Price: $18,600,000

# of Suites: 83


Cap Rate: 5.2%


Purchaser: Killam

Date Sold: April 2014

29

15 & 16 Bently Drive Halifax, NS

Price: $40,650,000

# of Suites: 192


Cap Rate: 5.3%


Purchaser: Timbercreek

Date Sold: June 2014

30

Bonaventure Apartments 295 Dufferin Street Toronto, ON Price: $45,000,000

# of Suites: 200


Cap Rate: 4.3%

Vendor: Tridel



31

Glen Park Apartments 7411, 7433 Yonge Street & 20, 30 Clark Avenue Thornhill, ON Price: $71,250,000

# of Suites: 380


Cap Rate: 5.0%

Vendor: Tridel



32

Wellington Towers 145, 147 Wellington Street West Aurora, ON Price: $34,750,000

# of Suites: 204


Cap Rate: 5.6%

Vendor: Tridel



33

220 – 230 Woolner Avenue Toronto, ON

Price: $21,850,000

# of Suites: 260


Cap Rate: 5.9%

Vendor: Mainstreet Equity


Date Sold: January 2014

34

230 Oak Street Toronto, ON Price: $38,000,000

# of Suites: 327


Cap Rate: 4.75%

Vendor: Tridel

Purchaser: Akelius


35

REGENT PARK – THE PROJECTS??

OLD

NEW

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=M8FO9QMgltXpwM&tbnid=9XEL7UyBNWiGdM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://schemamag.ca/2011/05/10/2011_regent_park_film_festival/&ei=ADoPVMDBNKXo8QGltIGoDw&bvm=bv.74649129,d.b2U&psig=AFQjCNGGQwEk2PrZayqNDlOwYTd5D-KheQ&ust=1410370427808708

36

SHUTER & DALHOUSIE – CORE CONDOS

Jan 2014 Launched

Feb 2014 100% Sold

37

The seniors housing and care industry provides both accommodation and an array of services and program options to seniors

Shelter Activities Transport, Laundry Meals Basic Care

ServicesADL Care Services

Specialized MC

Long-Term Chonic Care

Seniors Apartments

Independent Living

Assisted Living

Memory Care

Long-Term Care

Source: NIC Investment Guide

Real Estate Component Services Component


Real Estate Component



Resident Choice Relative Influence Relative Choice Doctor Choice

SENIORS HOUSING & CARE PROPERTIES

38

Baby Boomer Generational Cohort

Canadian Popula tion Growth Projections: Seniors Aged 75 +

Source: CBRE Limited and Statistics Canada, Table 052-0005 M4

-%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Year-over-Year Growth CAGR

101.8% Seniors (75+) Population Growth Between 2013 and 2033

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN CANADA

39

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE: TOTAL RETURN POST-2010

16.1%

9.1%

12.7%

11.4%

14.2%

15.0%

5.5%

-% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%

Multi-Residential

Retail

Office

Industrial

Diversified

Seniors Housing

Hotel

Sample of TSX listed entities; Assumes reinvestment of distributions / dividends. Source: CBRE Limited

CBRE Limited

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canadian apartment investment conference 2014...3 . record price difference between low and high...

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