Canada Economy Overview for February 2015 – Trends and

Policies AnalysisBy: Paul Young, CPA, CGA

Automotive Sector

Automotive Production

Canada Auto Sales

Scotia Bank

International Trade

Canada Exports and Imports

Trade by Sector for Canada

Trade by Sector for Canada

Trade by Sector for Canada

Comments Trade/January 2015

Comments Trade/January 2015

Comments Trade/January 2015

Chamber of Commerce

Economy / Comments by RBC

Trade

Trade

Canadian Manufacturing Sales

Canadian Manufacturing

Canada MFG Sales

Canadian Manufacturing Analysis

Canadian Manufacturing Analysis

Food Processor Canada

AG Sector - Canada

Green Technology/Canada

Water Treatment

Forestry

PMI Index

Canada Labor Productivity

Freight Index

Housing Starts

AG Equipment

Electricity Power

Metal Processing Center

Metal Processing Center

Industrial Valuations

Commodity Prices

Nickel

Zinc

Commodity Index

Oil Rig Count

Oil and Gas

Oil Refineries

Pipelines

Canada Oil

Machine Tool Orders

Class 8 Truck Sales

Truck Sales

Steel Analysis

Steel Analysis

Other Provinces

British Colombia

• http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=950619 (Green Technology)

• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/supply-chain/maher-terminals-expanding-its-b-c-port-terminal-by-60-146156/

Alberta

• http://www.auc.ab.ca/applications/decisions/Decisions/2015/3515-D02-2015.pdf

• http://www.plant.ca/general/enmax-capital-power-open-alberta-natural-gas-fuelled-power-plant-145052/

• http://www.imperialoil.ca/Canada-English/about_media_releases_20150218.aspx

Saskatchewan

• http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Saskatchewan+sales+January/10897396/story.html

• http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/potash-giving-cash-boost-to-tight-saskatchewan-budget-1.3000361

• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/manufacturers-and-steel-producers-get-a-break-in-sask-budget-146379/

• http://www.plant.ca/general/cme-manufacturing-centre-opens-in-saskatoon-145371/

Manitoba

• http://www.foodincanada.com/sustainability/investment-to-focus-on-sustainable-beef-production-in-manitoba-130706/

• http://www.newflyer.com/index/news-app/story.187

• http://www.plant.ca/general/oic-awarded-5-million-to-develop-advanced-manufacturing-hub-145180/

Ontario

• https://www.cn.ca/en/news/2015/03/pressrelease_20150317011634_2091

• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/burlington-ont-software-firm-nabs-800k-in-federal-funding-146397/

• http://www.canplastics.com/automotive/howa-canada-to-open-auto-parts-plant-in-alliston-ont/1003434691/

• http://www.plant.ca/general/iion-gets-50k-investment-for-advanced-mfg-in-northern-ont-144703/

• http://www.miningweekly.com/article/canadian-fed-and-ontario-govts-unveil-supports-for-mining-industry-2015-03-02

• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/guelph-cleantech-firm-lands-3-7m-in-new-contracts-145963/

• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/supply-chain/loblaws-to-spend-1-2b-to-upgrade-100-stores-build-50-more-146065/

Ontario Life Sciences

Quebec

• http://www.on-sitemag.com/news/reseau-selection-investing-2b-to-build-30-new-projects-in-quebec/1003525748/?&er=3OZ2rEncH8OGOOEDgUU%2f2SQuguP9zQng9hJFoGu1CCk%3d

• https://angesquebec.com/en/angels-invest-695k-in-medfar-solutions-cliniques/

• http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/new-malaysian-airline-flymojo-to-buy-up-to-40-bombardier-cseries-jets-1.2998069

New Brunswick

• http://metronews.ca/news/canada/1317635/gallant-says-hell-respect-forestry-contracts/

• http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/harper-government-announces-new-investments-to-parks-canada-sites-across-new-brunswick-296227111.html

Nova Scotia

• http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/11/nova-scotia-is-paying-rbc-as-much-as-22-million-to-open-a-financial-services-centre-in-halifax/

PEI

• http://www.dredgingtoday.com/2015/03/02/new-investments-in-pei-fishing-harbors-dredging/

Newfoundland

• http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?nid=938739

• http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/technology/n-l-based-sonar-developer-gets-nrc-irap-funding-146260/

Economic Trends for Canada

Retail Sales

Retail Sales Analysis

Retail sales by Province

Retail sales by Segment

Employment

Canadian Economy

Canadian dollar trend

Global Trends

Global Trends

Global Trends

Federal or Provincial Policies/Issues

Public Safety / Comments

• http://www.mykawartha.com/news-story/5456696-anti-terrorism-act-won-t-impact-klps-operations-police-chief/

• http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/expert-challenges-government-claims-that-c-51-similar-to-allies-powers

Mining Regulations / Canada

Rail Standards• http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/lac-m%C3%A9gantic-lisa-raitt-announces-rail-safety-rules-based-on-crash-findings-1.2816680

• http://www.cpr.ca/en/safety/culture-of-safety

• http://www.cn.ca/-/media/Files/Delivering%20Responsibility/Safety/leadership-in-safety-en.pdf

• http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/stats/rail/2012/ss12.asp

• Globe and Mail, How about you read the regulations? https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/railsafety/railsafety-569.htm or the fact that some companies will push the limits: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/lac-m%C3%A9gantic-lisa-raitt-announces-rail-safety-rules-based-on-crash-findings-1.2816680. It is sad that people blame Harper for every bad thing that happens in Canada.

• I am not saying Harper is a saint, but the reality if companies cut corners then there is little things that can be done other than monitoring those companies more closely as part of the government regulations! CN: http://www.cn.ca/-/media/Files/Delivering%20Responsibility/Safety/leadership-in-safety-en.pdf or CP: http://www.cpr.ca/en/safety/culture-of-safety http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/stats/rail/2012/ss12.asp.

• It seems to me the amount of freight that is moved by rail and the number of accidents is very low and in some cases has decreased for the past 4 or five years! http://www.railcan.ca/safety/safety.

• It seems to me that we are moving more goods including oil by rail. Where does the NDP stand on pipelines? Oops, they have said little on the east-west pipeline, right. I have provided my links it is now on you to refute my information!! I bet you cannot as NDPers do not like facts! Ms. Ashton has already shown in her post that relates to the fire she is not about facts, but emotion!

• Provincial Government failures

• It is sad how little people do research, right? http://cpeast.teamsterscanada.ca/2015/01/22/ontario-government-sues-cn-rail-millions-firefighting-costs/. The Provincial made cuts to clearing brush from the tracks, right? http://www.timminstimes.com/2012/05/23/mcguinty-liberals-will-hurt-forest-fire-evacuation-plans-says-mnr-union. It seems McGuinty and Wynne cuts have increase the risk of forest fires by rail!! How come nothing was said on these cuts?

• How about the rail volume: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/16-002-x/2015001/article/14132-eng.htm

• How about CN and CP spending: http://www.cn.ca/-/media/Files/Investors/Presentations/CN-Investor-Presentation-2015-en.pdf or http://www.cpr.ca/en/investors-site/Lists/FinancialReports/cp-aif-2014.pdf

•

Household Debt

Commentary – Household Debt

•

• 1. Mortgages - I thought we live in a world where market prices dictate what people pay for items, including houses. What is JT's solution? Cap bids and asks or force banks to take harder looks at market values? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/seven-ways-jim-flaherty-changed-the-canadian-mortgage-market/article17600143/

• 2. Student Debt - Is it Harpers fault that people go to school for degrees that provide no real future? Is it Harper's fault that provinces like Ontario drove jobs from the private sector in areas like small to medium sized. Why are kids not going into areas that provide more career options: http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/6239-maybe-it-s-time-canada-expands-trades-training-for-youth.html ? Is JT going to write-off student loans or offer more tax credit programs for students? A solution for debt is a job for a student, right? http://www.esdc.gc.ca/en/reports/cslp_cesp/cslp_stats_2011.page

• 3. Credit Card - Is it Harper's fault that people to have to rely on credit when hydro bills and/or taxes at the provincial level have stretched household budgets. http://business.financialpost.com/2014/02/26/canadians-on-target-for-record-year-of-personal-debt-despite-better-end-to-2013-transunion/

• 4. Income growth - Is it Harper's fault that provinces failed economic plans that included expanding public sector jobs was better than the private sector? How about all those underfunded pensions at the provincial level. http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/income_inequality.pdf . More taxes are not the answer unless it means taxing the higher income brackets, right?

• Source:

• http://newsroom.bmo.com/press-releases/bmo-annual-debt-report-household-debt-up-6-per-ce-tsx-bmo-201408050960770001

• http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/housing-market-modestly-overvalued-cmhc-says/article21724011/

Debt and Deficits - Commentary

• There has been many comments on the federal government, especially debt and deficit. Mr. Harper took over as official government on February 5, 2006. The house was in a minority parliament as Paul Martin just left office. The CPC first annual report was 2006-2007 -http://www.parl.gc.ca/parlinfo/Compilations/FederalGovernment/PrimeMinisters/Gallery.aspx

• Harper started putting money back into social programs starting in 2007-2008 (link: http://www.fin.gc.ca/afr-rfa/2008/afr2008_e.pdf) – see page 13

• USA economy growth rates on average are 2% as compare to 4% in the 1990s. http://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth-of-the-united-states-since-1990/. LPC comments that Harper has been poor manager of the economy and yet nothing on USA Growth rates. USA still has not totally recover from housing bubble or stagnation with the middle class: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102438557. USA is Trade has been rebounding, but the problem is the lack of capacity for exports in key provinces like Ontario and PQ:http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/gblec02a-eng.htm

• 2008-2009 there was world-wide global recession which forced Harper and his government to spend on a stimulus. Both the LPC and NDP claim the stimulus was not enough it terms of helping the economy: http://www.thestar.com/business/2009/02/06/stimulus_not_enough_liberals.html. It is funny how Mr. Goodale recently made posts that CPC had been poor on managing the finances, but says little on how LPC asked for more money

• Mr. Harper increases transfers to the provinces by 50% over the past 8+ years. The provinces have more money for education/healthcare than at any point of time in the past 20+ years. In the 1990s the LPC cut transfers to the provinces, but nothing is said, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-deficit or http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/provincial-transfers-and-program-spending. The opposition parties like the LPC or NDP are good at saying healthcare will see $36B less in money, but say little how healthcare delivery by various provinces has gotten worst over the past 10+ years, why? The PBO report never look at delivery, but felt it is just a funding issue: http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst//most-efficient-health-care-2014-countries.

• Neither the LPC nor NDP discuss either the Build Canada or Gas Tax fund, why? Goodale did say the Build Canada fund is not working, but he never ever said that infrastructure projects carry over to multiple years, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/municipalities-canada. BTW: What party brought up CPPIB could be used to finance infrastructure projects? http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/23/kelly-mcparland-justin-trudeaus-hidden-agenda/. Did the LPC not raid EI in the 1990s? http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/martin-defends-employment-insurance-surplus-1.164131

• Mr. Harper continues to provide different programs that either existed under the LPC or were revamped under his watch. Mr. Goodale was quoted as saying his party introduced SDTC, but never says how that program benefited green technology, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada or http://www.hazmatmag.com/remediation/federal-budget-supports-environmental-technology-contaminated-site-cleanup/1000016105/. So, where does SDTC or Next Generation Fuel Funds stand with either the NDP or LPC?

• LPC never talks about issues with provincial policies, why? The LPC is great saying it is all about money, but really they never once said how mining regulations or skills trades or power rates or carbon taxes or other policies are impacting business investment, why? http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/mpp-chan-says-exporting-priority-ontario-liberals-142867/ or http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/ontario-drives-manufacturers-away-with-overpriced-electricity/article14854752/. It is never one policy that hurts business, so why is more not being said by the LPC? CPC have done great taxation, investment/trade/etc. or basically federal policies! http://www.kpmg.com/ca/en/issuesandinsights/articlespublications/press-releases/pages/canada-remains-most-competitive-business-tax-environment.aspx or http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-market-and-industry-indicators-for-canada-january-2015. The LPO has also said the AG sector is important, but yet their policies have failed that sector: http://www.ofa.on.ca/media/news/connecting-with-cabinet-is-first-order-of-business

Economy / Comments• Manufacturing sales have done reasonably well in areas like Transportation or Forestry or Machinery or metal fabrications (see slide 11 -

http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-market-and-industry-indicators-for-canada-january-2015)

• Oil is only roughly 8% of GDP. The issue with oil is that it can impact areas like royalties’ revenue or exports, but other sectors can pick up some of the slack: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/150303/dq150303a-eng.htm?HPA.

• Housing Starts in USA are fueling growth in forestry - http://www.kiplinger.com/tool/business/T019-S000-kiplinger-s-economic-outlooks/.

• Consumer Spending in Canada has done reasonably well for the past few years due to tax cuts as well as strong economy: http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/news/2015/20150312-econ-fcst.html. Yet Mr. Goodale does not mention $11B that could be pumped into the economy via lower gas prices, why

• Exports hit estimate $530B in 2014. Exports are still strong and continue to have success, especially in areas like Agriculture, machinery, aerospace, transportation, forestry, etc. Oil will drive down exports, but other sectors will help offset those losses. Yet the LPC never discusses the exports of other products, why? http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top-canada-exports.html or http://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=HS87P-XD8EV-H8PMB. BTW: Harper either kept programs like SDTC or created new programs to provide seed money to business, but nothing is said on the seed money, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada

• Middle Class – Canada middle class has done well compare to its peers - http://business.financialpost.com/2014/04/22/canada-leading-ranks-of-shrinking-middle-class/ or even the Huffington Post (Liberal supporter) has shown Canada’s rank in 5th in the world compare to some of its peers -http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/05/05/canada-better-life-index_n_5269677.html. I can bet Denmark will be commented due to its social policies, but what is not said is Denmark ranks 10 in taxes and/or has no oil/natural resources/etc.

• Goodale does not mention provincial governments as way to deflect all the blame at Harper. Yet it has been provincial policies in areas like carbon taxes, ORPP, hydro rates, skills/trades/etc. that have done more damage to the economy. http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2014/11/25/ontario_needs_major_shift_to_get_economy_back_on_track.html. Ontario is used, but there are issues with Quebec/Nova Scotia/NB/other provinces! The Liberal solutions is give more money to provinces and not push for fiscal management, why? http://www.cambridgetimes.ca/news-story/5444799-moody-s-says-ontario-has-a-spending-problem/.

• Ontario bad polices - It is up the provinces to bring forward policies that support job creation: What government brought in the new mining regulations? http://www.mining.com/junior-miners-entangled-in-new-ontario-mining-regulations-14400/ or http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/02/26/ontarios_big_industries_plead_for_lower_hydro_rates.html . I could go into the ORPP as another bad tax: http://www.cfib-fcei.ca/english/article/5860-provincial-pension-plan-an-attack-on-small-business.html . The Conservative party was a great steward of the economy! The conservatives also spent more government money % of spending on healthcare than the Liberal party have done under their term in office: http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/ontario-government-spending . BTW: Canada's healthcare ranking was 4th in 2004 and now is 10th in one of the world-wide ranking on healthcare. http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/fund-reports/2014/jun/mirror-mirror . Yet healthcare has seen more money! It is not about money, but about efficient and effective delivery of healthcare dollars!

Skill Trades

First Nations

• http://globalnews.ca/news/1862179/ottawa-advised-to-share-resource-taxes-with-aboriginals/• There needs to be transparency how money is spent by first nation:

http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/first-nation-funding