canada and the road to paris lisa (elisabeth) demarco zizzo allan demarco llp [email protected]...
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Canada and the Road to Paris
Lisa (Elisabeth) DeMarco
Zizzo Allan DeMarco LLP
+1.647.991.1190
Overview
• The road travelled:• Changing international and NA context• The relevant energy context
• The road ahead• Behind and inside the October draft Paris text• Canada at the COP and future CMAs
• The critical role of “infranationals”
Changing International Context
• Science: IPCC 5th Assessment Report • Extreme Weather• G77, US-China, and TPP• Carbon Pricing• Renewables • Energy:
• coal• oil• pipelines• social license
Carbon Pricing - International
World Bank Group, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015.
Canadian GHG Emissions from Energy Production
Environment Canada, National Inventory Report: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada, 1990-2013.
GHG CategoryEmissions (MT CO2e)
Stationary combustion sources
Public electricity and heat production
88
Petroleum refining industries 18
Mining and upstream 94
Manufacturing industries 46
Construction 1
Commercial & institutional 29
Residential 46
Agriculture & forestry 4
Total Stationary Sources 325
Transport 204
Fugitive sources 59
TOTAL 588
Energy Production 2013 GHG Emissions
Canadian and US GHG Emissions by Sector
Environment Canada, National Inventory Report: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada, 1990-2013.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2013.
Canadian Emissions by sector
9%
12%
21%
27%
31%
Agriculture
Commercial & Residential
Industry
Transportation
Electricity
Total: 6,673 MT CO2e
U.S. GHG Emissions by Sector
The Road ahead for Canada, Paris and CMA 1?
• The Canadian dilemma – perception, reality, credibility
• Splinter of the Umbrella Group• The critical role of sub/infra nationals
• ON, QC, CA (WCI) and BC• CA in WCI and US CPP(?)
• The cost• Key issues to follow in Paris
Government of Canada, Oil Sands: A strategic resource for Canada, North America and the global market (2013).
United States Environmental Protection Agency, Facility Level Information on Greenhouse Gases Tool.
Annual emissions from the oil sands (55 MT CO2e in 2014) are less than the combined annual GHG emissions of the top three highest-emitting coal-fired power plants in the USA.
• US total: 6673 MT; Target: 26-28% below 2005 by 2025
• Canada total: 726 MT; Target: 30% below 2005 by 2030
• Mexico total: 748 (503); Target: 25% below BAU by 2030
• China total: 9019; Target: 60-65% below 2005 by 2030
The Canadian Dilemma
World Bank Group, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015, as modified by ZAD LLP to reflect CPP
Carbon Pricing - North America
*US Clean Power Plan, Final Rule Aug. 3 2015*
Electricity Sector Emissions Intensity
Quebec
Manitoba BC
Ontario
California
New Jerse
y
New York
Illinois
Pennsylva
nia
Minnesota
Texas
Michigan
Saskatch
ewan
Alberta
Indiana0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
CO2 Intensity (tonnes/MWh)
Based on best available data reflecting 2012 for Canada (Environment Canada) and 2011 for US states (U.S. Energy Information Administration).
Electricity Prices, Canada and US
Hydro Quebec, Rate Comparison for Rates Effective April 1, 2014.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (YTD October 2014). Prices converted at an exchange rate of $0.85 USD = $1 CAD.
Quebec
British
Columbia
Alberta
Saskatch
ewan
Nova Sco
tia
Ontario
Maryland
Wisc
onsin
California
New Hampshire
Vermont
New York0
5
10
15
20
25
Residential All-In Prices, Canada and US (CAD ¢/kWh)
Key Issues in Paris
• Legally binding nature:• “contribution” or “commitment”• NAPs• Third party review and ongoing NDCs (every 5 years?)
• Treatment of:• Developing countries – common but differentiated?• Fossil subsidies• Timing and degree target
• Role of markets