can your nonprofit prove you are making a difference?

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Can You Really Prove That You are Making a Difference?

Isaac D. CastilloDirector of Data and Evaluation

DC Promise Neighborhood Initiative

On Twitter: @Isaac_outcomesEmail: [email protected]

August 20, 2014

mailto:[email protected]

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Why Should You Care About Outcomes?

August 20, 2014 Isaac Castillo - @isaac_outcomes

• LAYC domestic violence story– LeapOfReason.org– First Do No Harm…Then Do More Good

• New domestic violence program component designed to teach three things: – Partner violence is not an OK expression of

love– Partner violence is not OK in Latino culture– There are safe ways to get out of violent

relationships

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Learning Objectives

• Ability to define success for your organization and its programs/interventions

• Identify ways to measure progress and outcomes (using multiple approaches)

• Understand how to begin creating an organizational culture that embraces information and uses data to make programmatic improvements


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Who Counts?

• May seem like a simple thing, but even defining who ‘counts’ as one of your participants is a very important decision.


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Duplicated vs. Unduplicated Counts

• An unduplicated count is one that counts human beings – A person / human being would only be counted ONCE,

regardless of how many activities or sessions they have attended.

– Example: consider this class – what is the unduplicated count of this class?

• A duplicated count is one that counts ‘service slots’ – Not a count of human beings – rather it is a count of how

many service slots are occupied. – Example – if we all came back tomorrow – what would the

duplicated count be? Would the unduplicated count change?


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Talking and thinking about your counts

• What do you present publically? A duplicated count or an unduplicated count?

• Do you ‘count’ someone who only comes to a single event at your location?

• Do you collect different things for duplicated or unduplicated populations?


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Same Concept: Different Words

What do you call this sandwich?


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Outputs vs Outcomes

• Output measures assess what you do and who you serve. Examples include:

• Served 100 youth during summer camp• Provided 2,250 hours of tutoring during the academic year • 9 out of 10 youth attended at least 75 % of available art instruction

classes offered Outcome measures assess changes in your target population.

Examples include:• 75 % of youth increased their knowledge of local history during the

summer camp• 50% of youth increased math grades by one grade level during the

academic year• 25% fewer youth reported being involved in bullying over the last year


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Outputs

• Outputs DO: – Tell you about whether your program was implemented

well. For example, they indicate whether a program:• delivered the intended number of sessions• reached its intended population• resulted in adequate participation levels

• Outputs DO NOT: – Tell you if participants benefited from your program– Serve as indicators of program success or effectiveness


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Outcomes• Outcomes DO: – Tell you if participants benefited from your program– Serve as indicators of program success or effectiveness

• Outcomes DO NOT: – Tell you about whether your program was implemented

well (or provide clues about how your program improved participant outcomes)


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Do You Need To Measure Outcomes for Every Program?

• No.• You should measure outcomes for your

activities that provide a consistent set of programming or services for participants.

• Measuring just outputs is OK for some activities or programmatic approaches.

• Activities or services that are only used once by people likely will NOT produce outcomes.


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Need to Collect Both Outputs and Outcomes

• Determine if more services lead to more/better outcomes

• Determine if there is a ‘minimum’ amount of service needed to improve outcomes

• Determine if too many services actually lead to decreased or negative outcomes


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Should You Measure Outcomes For These Activities?

• An organization provides a health fair for community members– No – this is a service that a person would access once. Unlikely this

will lead to any lasting change. – But you should still track outputs – how many attended?

• An organization provides a series of classes lasting 10 weeks that teaches how to lower cholesterol. – Yes – should measure changes in knowledge, attitudes, and possibly

behavior. – Outputs should also be tracked (attendance)

• You could potentially also track: – How many health fair attendees ended up enrolling in and

completing the classes.


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Malleability: Can the Outcome Be Changed?


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Reality Check

• Is your program likely to have a measurable effect on an outcome?– Example: A delinquency prevention program with

100 urban youth is unlikely to reduce a city’s crime rate


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Confirmatory Outcomes

• Confirmatory outcomes: outcomes you expect will change as a result of program participation– You will hold yourself responsible for confirmatory

outcomes for all (or the majority) of your regular participants.

– You will devote adequate resources and time to achieving confirmatory outcomes .

– You will measure your confirmatory outcomes


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Exploratory Outcomes

• Exploratory outcomes : outcomes potentially, but not definitely, improved by your program– You think (have a theory) that you may have an effect on

exploratory outcomes. – But you will not hold yourself responsible for

exploratory outcomes. – You may or may not measure exploratory outcomes. – If you do not measure your exploratory outcomes, you

should have a theory (or prior research) that supports why you think the exploratory outcomes are likely to happen.


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Confirmatory vs Exploratory Outcomes Example

• A 24-week program designed to teach teens about the dangers of tobacco use and decrease (or prevent) smoking of cigarettes

• Confirmatory outcome: decrease in the self-reported number of cigarettes smoked during the past 7 days

• Exploratory outcome: decrease in the self-reported use of alcohol, marijuana, or other drugs during the past 7 days

The program SHOULD decrease use of cigarettes. And if the program decreases cigarette use, then participants MIGHT decrease use of other substances as well.


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Some Examples of Outcomes


Healthy eating habits

Program Outcome(s)

Sex education for teens

Parent / child communication

skills

Consumption of more fruits and

vegetables

Healthier weight

Decreased yelling / anger during conflicts

Increased knowledge of

dangers of unprotected /

early sex

Decreased risky

sexual activity

Fewer unplanned

teenage pregnancies

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Timing of Outcomes

• Best to think about sequence of outcomes – and not focus just on when outcomes may/should occur.

• Early / initial outcomes should lead to more outcomes, which in turn will lead to more outcomes.

• Important question: how far down the chain of outcomes will you measure?


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Short Term Outcomes

• Expect to be affected in a short period of time• Closely related to/influenced by the program’s

outputs• Necessary steps– Ensure program is on track– Realistic measure of success


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Intermediate and Long-Term Outcomes

• Intermediate Outcomes– Link between short and longer-term outcomes– Most will be confirmatory outcomes

• Long-Term Outcomes– Change after longer period of time– Ultimate outcomes– Mix of confirmatory and exploratory outcomes


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How Long Will Each Type of Outcome Take?

• Will depend on the length of your intervention.


Short Term Intermediate Long Term

Six MonthsOne Month Twelve Months

6 Years1 Year 12 Years

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What is a Logic Model?

• Simple representation of a program / service / organization• Connects program services or activities to anticipated outputs

and outcomes• Logic models are never ‘finished’ – they should evolve over

time as programs change• Logic models should be for program/staff use – serve as guide

for direct service work and expected outcomes• Dozens of frameworks/formats, but all contain at least 3 things:

– Activities/Services– Outputs– Outcomes


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Basic Logic Model


Activities

Planned services, offerings, or instruction

provided to your participants.

“What you plan to do or deliver?”

Outputs

What actually happened when you offered your

activities.

“Who actually received services

and in what amount?”

Outcomes

Changes in knowledge, attitudes,

behavior, or conditions among your participants.

“What changes actually happened

among your participants as a

result of your activities?”

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Simplified Logic Model

• Logic models should help you think through the flow of your program: • If you do Activity 1, you will see evidence of the activity being delivered by

measuring Output 1 and Output 2. Out of these Outputs and Activity, you would expect Outcome 1 and Outcome 2 to result.


Activity / Service Outputs Outcomes

Activity 1• Output 1

• Output 2

Outcome 1

Outcome 2

Activity 2• Output 3

• Output 4

Outcome 3

Outcome 4

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Afterschool Tutoring Logic Model


Activity Outputs Short-term Outcomes

Intermediate Outcomes

After-school tutoring on

mathematics

• # of students tutored

• # of tutoring sessions offered

• # of minutes of tutoring each student receives

% of students maintaining or improving school attendance

% of students completing and submitting math homework

% of students increasing math grade

% of students with “A”s in math maintain “A”

Goal: Increase academic performance of students in mathematics

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The ‘logic’ of the Afterschool Tutoring Logic Model• IF your program provides after-school tutoring in mathematics, THEN you would

expect three things to happen: – Students will attend (# of students tutored)– Each student will attend a certain amount of tutoring sessions (# of tutoring

sessions offered)– Each student will receive a certain amount of tutoring over the program year

measured in minutes (# of minutes of tutoring each student receives)• IF you provide tutoring, and students show up and receive a certain amount of

tutoring, THEN you would expect these two outcomes: – Students maintain or improve school attendances (% of students maintaining or

improving school attendance) – Students will complete (or continue to complete) and submit math homework

assignments to teachers (% of students completing and submitting math homework)

• If students attend school, complete their math homework, submit their math homework, then you would expect these two outcomes:– Students would increase their math grades (% of students increasing math

grade)– Students that already have “A”s in math will maintain those “A”s. (% of students

with As in math maintain A)August 20, 2014 Isaac Castillo - @isaac_outcomes

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Logic Model Formats Can Vary

Inputs Activities Outputs Short- Term Outcomes

Long-Term Outcomes

Input 1Input 2Input 3Input 4Input 5Input 6Input 7Input 8

Activity 1Activity 2Activity 3Activity 4

Output 1Output 2Output 3Output 4Output 5

Outcome 1Outcome 2Outcome 3Outcome 4

Outcome 5


Some logic models itemize inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes.

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Logic Model With Flow


Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes

Activity 3

Activity 2

Outcome 1Output 1Activity 1

Output 3

Activity 4 Output 2

Input 2

Input1

Other logic models use arrows to show detailed progression or flow of logic. Boxes or other shapes can be used to separate different concepts within categories.

Outcome 2

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Logic Models Do Not Need to be Linear


Values

Mission

Vision

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Nested Logic Models


Activities Outputs Outcomes

Nutrition Education Program

Activities Outputs Outcomes

Student Exercise Program

Student Health Division

Educational Support Division

Parent Outreach Division

OrganizationLocation 1 Location 2 Location 3 Location 4

Enrichment Division

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Benefits of Logic Models• Set up a clear path to success or a roadmap for achieving

program goals

• Provide a visual test of whether inputs, and activities align with outputs and outcomes

• Help to get everyone “on the same page”

• Facilitate performance management and evaluation


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Who Would You Fund?

• You have $1 million to provide funding to a tutoring program for “at-risk” youth.

• You need to pick one of two programs to fund – but you can only pick one!

• Assume everything else is equal aside from the information provided on the next page. – Same service population – Same areas of service– Same tutoring approach


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Which Program Would You Fund?


Program # 1 Program # 2

Served 500 “at-risk” youth Served 50 “at-risk” youth

Provided 2,500 total hours of tutoring

Provided 2,500 total hours of tutoring

Each youth received average of 5 hours of

tutoring

Each youth received average of 50 hours of

tutoring

5 % of youth showed improved math grades on

report cards

90 % of youth showed improved math grades on

report cards

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Does this Change Things?


Mat

h Pr

ofici

ency

Time

Program 1 Comparison Group

Program 1

Mat

h Pr

ofici

ency

Program 2 Comparison Group

Program 2

Time

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How Do You Create an Outcome Focused Organizational Culture?


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Five Things to Keep in Mind

• Senior level leadership on outcomes• Making outcomes someone’s responsibility• Messaging and changing the conversation • Making outcomes useful for front-line staff• Think of it as multi-year culture change


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Leadership Commitment

• Organization’s leadership must buy into importance of outcomes measurement.

• Leadership must also communicate the importance of outcomes measurement throughout the entire organization.

• Work with Development/Fundraising and Finance/Accounting staff to identify sources of funding.


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Making Outcomes Someone’s Responsibility

• A staff person should be given the responsibility for making the culture change happen.

• Ideally, this staff person would have limited other responsibilities – most of their work should focus on outcomes.

• Person should be respected within organization.• This is a people initiative, not a technology

initiative. • Technology can help, but it is not the answer.


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Messaging and Changing the Conversation

• Frame question as: “how can we provide better services to participants?”

• “Evaluation” as a positive and useful activity, not as a negative or judgmental process.

• Messaging needs to be consistent – think of this as an internal marketing activity.

• Staff and organizations will have legitimate concerns, and they should be addressed honestly.– “Not enough time to do outcomes measurement”– “Not enough resources to do outcomes measurement”– “Don’t have the expertise or skills to do outcomes

measurement”


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Making Outcomes Useful

• Work with staff to develop functional reports. • Share reports with staff.• Train staff on how to access and use their own

information. • Set aside time to talk about data and reports in

meetings.


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Information to Better Serve Clients

• Collect information to modify or improve your services.

• Human beings and their behaviors are very complex – so focus on a few things and measure those as best as you can.

• You should have a clearly articulated connection between what you do and the outcomes you hope to achieve.

• In most cases, you will be collecting more than your funders require.


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Be Honest With Staff

• Focus on the positive – you will collect more information to better serve clients……

• But be honest.– Will take some additional work on their part,

especially at the beginning.– Some people will resist the idea – “not in the job to

collect data, in the job to help people”• Provide reports back as quickly as possible. Use

these to illustrate the importance of the process.


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Process Will Take Time

• Most organizations will take 3-5 years to achieve the culture change, depending on size and leadership.

• Avoid temptation to rush or overcommit.• Set expectations up front – let everyone know the

process will take years (not weeks or months).


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Be Realistic About Process

• Do not try to attempt to measure everything.– Will only result in poor quality information.– People will become frustrated or overwhelmed.

• Use what you collect.– Have reports in place where people can view and discuss the

information collected. – If you don’t plan on using it – don’t bother collecting it.

• Start small, then expand. – Better to collect 2-3 things very accurately, and use this

information, than try to collect dozens of things poorly. – Can always add on additional things to collect in future years.


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What is Performance Management?

• Performance management is the collection of information by programs, organizations, or people for the primary purpose of program / service improvement.

• Successful performance management relies on three important features:

1) The regular and accurate collection of information, which is then…...2) Shared in useable formats, which is then…..3) Used to make changes in the hope of improving something (services,

programs, conditions, decision making, etc.)


Performance Management

Cycle

August 20, 2014 Isaac Castillo - @isaac_outcomes 48

Define Success

Data Collection Methods

Train Staff

Begin Program

Ongoing Checks

Interim Reports Complete Data Collection

Examine Data

Prepare Reports

Share Outcomes

Use Outcomes To Change Program

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Performance Management and Evaluation


Performance Management Regular measurement,

Improve outcomes

EvaluationOccasional measurement,

Improve effectiveness

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PM and Eval: Speed

Performance Management is rapid and frequent


Evaluation is methodical and delayed

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PM and Eval: Data Collection and Analysis


Performance Management is simple and requires little

expertise

Evaluation can be complex and often requires specialized

training

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PM and Eval: Completeness


Performance Management gives you enough to guess at

whole puzzle

Evaluation lays out as much of the puzzle as possible

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Why Bother With All of This?


Ultimately, you should be measuring outcomes or effectiveness for a single

reason:

To better serve your clients / population.

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Isaac’s Contact Information

October 2014 @Isaac_outcomes

Isaac D. CastilloDirector of Data and Evaluation

DC Promise Neighborhood Initiative

On Twitter: @Isaac_outcomesEmail: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

can your nonprofit prove you are making a difference?

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