can algeria be a stable and sustainable source of energy for europe?

8/9/2019 Can Algeria Be a Stable and Sustainable Source of Energy for Europe?

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/can-algeria-be-a-stable-and-sustainable-source-of-energy-for-europe 1/15

Mediterranean PaPer SerieS 2010

Cn lg tl nd

tnl C f ngy f ?

tv Wttn

Independent MENA Energy Consultant

London



© 2010 Te German Marshall Fund of the United States. All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing

from the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:

Te German Marshall Fund of the United States

1744 R Street, NW

Washington, DC 20009

1 202 683 2650

F 1 202 265 1662

E [email protected]

Tis publication can be downloaded for free at http://www.gmfus.org/publications/index.cfm. Limited print

copies are also available. o request a copy, send an e-mail to [email protected].

gMf aper eries

Te GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety of transatlantic topics by sta, fellows, and partners of the German

Marshall Fund of the United States. Te views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the

view of GMF. Comments from readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected].

bou gMf

Te German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grant-making institu-

tion dedicated to promoting greater cooperation and understanding between North America and Europe.

GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working on transatlantic issues, by convening leaders to discuss

the most pressing transatlantic themes, and by examining ways in which transatlantic cooperation can address a variety of

global policy challenges.

Founded in 1972 through a gi from Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a

strong presence on both sides of the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC, GMF has seven oces in

Europe: Berlin, Bratislava, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, and Bucharest.

bou he Meierraea oic roram

Te Mediterranean Policy Program promotes transatlantic analysis and dialogue on issues aecting Southern Europe, North

Africa, the Levant, and the Mediterranean basin. Priority areas include: understanding trends in Mediterranean societies;exploring opportunities for south-south cooperation and integration; research on key functional issues aecting Mediter-

ranean security and development; and strengthening the North American policy debate on the region and transatlantic

cooperation on Mediterranean strategy.



Can Algeia be a Stable andSustainable Souce of Enegy fo Euope?

Mediteanean Pape Seies

Januay 2010

Trvr W

I MENA Er C

L



Can Algeia be a Stable and

Sustainable Souce of Enegy fo Euope?3

What is Energy Security?

Er r m r h r

. Frm Er rv—

r mr mrr

—r r m r

r r, mv r, r

vrm r mr.

Frm Ar rv,

r rr xrr h

Er, h r mh

r , r m.

Fv hr m Er mr rm wh hv , , r vr

Ar rw

r mrk. Th Er U (EU) r

Ar r r m

, Ar’ r rrv

v rh rxm h Er

mrk, r xr hv h m

r mrk hr r mrk

. W Chrh h “

r vr vr .”

Th m r r r .

Dvr — r, h rh r h,

h r r r. Er

vr , hrr, r

r r. I mrk r

h m.

Advantages of Open Energy Markets

Th wr h m mr

r r, vm whh hv rh

vr h r. Er

x. Grwh r r rmrk h; h

mmz mrk r , r,

r. Fr r w r rr

mr r m m

v w r mr. Pr

h , rr, r mrk wrk

rm h h r r, w mjr wr h

M E, 9/, vr r r,

hr h mjr h hr r

h 5 r. Er w

v, r.

Ax r r r wh

x mrk rrm , r k k

. S r r rm

r hr whr h

h— mjr , , r rr m

- r v; r r w r

r. G hr r

m w m r

w v h v

r v hh r hhr r r. I

mmz mrk k , h m

vr r,

hr m h mrk.

I mrk, hwvr, whr

-r r, mk

x rv mr rm.

Ahh h r mrk

h m, rm h

r vm, h rh h

rh m, h mrk h rr

r wh r. Prv mr, r

rr r r, w

w h wr mrk , r

vm wh q r r

r. I, h mmr h

rm rr mrk

r vz r

r rh w r mr r m mr k

r r.

I rr mrk h m

r r hr v

r . Ur, h



Te Gean Masall Fund of te United States4

r mrk r mm. Th mrk r, r h

r h OPEC r hr

r r -OPEC rr

mk h r vm wh

h mrk. Tk hr, h m

hr, mrk-r . Th

r r r w 6 8 w

xm r m h h

kr hr r-

vm r vr

r r v h

mrk. Whhr h w rkw -m hr r mrk m h

mh , hr w, r w h

mrk r—hr w w j

h k h mrk q.

Th r m r

r m qk

qh h hh r r 8. Fr h

r m r mmr, m r

h , Er,

r r h wk mrk

m wr r. Ir, h rrr r r m k h

r hr vm w

r whrw r w h

r, xr wr

r, rr r . Th -

wv w Lq Nr G (LNG)

rrv h mrk, vr

5 r 4Q9 mh

5 r . Wh A LNG

m, m h w LNG w

r Er, --

m r r— Ar.

S, h x Er r

r, Ar h mmr h OPEC

r r mmr h rv w

G Exr Cr Frm—whh m

v m rm r r wh

mr m h OPEC. Mmrh h r r

vr mrk r m

hrr r m r

r Er mr—hh q hw

hrr h rk rm m.

Algeria’s Conventional Energy Potential

D h wr r mrk r, w

Ar’ rm .

G h Ar wh vr r

hrr h hv x

h r m, Srh, z. A rr r r

h h r rm proved

rrv r 4 r r r

. Hwvr, Ar h

mmm rw h r

hrh rv rrm w vm,

rr r $63 r h r

9-3. Srh’ r

r r capacity rm

.8 m rr (m) .

m , rhr r h r

.5 m 5. Hwvr, r h

r r r, h rm vm

m. Ev Srh h h

rv rrv k hr r,

r rm r OPEC q

rr (whh hw h

hr rm) xr r m x

xr .

I rm , h wr’ h

r rr , Srh

r j r rh

. Ar h h r

xr rm h r r r 6

mr r (m) 85 m

rh mh m

5. A, h r r r

h m r k m.





D h k, xr rm Ar hv m 999. D m m

vr, w rrv hv

h vr h r

Ar’ xr rwh r. A rrm

m, m- r vm

rm xr w rqr h

h rrv k h r h r

r. Am h m ,

rhr r w h

rqr h r

xr rrr w

rrv r m. Th rv rk w r r vr h

w r, hwvr, h

r w rrv vm m rhr

h .

I r r vm

rrv r

rrr r hm mrk,

r . Ar’

r m r mk r -r

r h . Gr

r r r whh m h r v

r xr. Th mr h mrv

h h m r mrk v

vm v mr, h

mr h m r w

m, r v r xr

mrv r .

Cv, r h

h w h, rr

h wr r rr r—

h mr Ar’ m rrv.Ar r rrm w, mr

, -r wr r

r rr r -

r hm wh mr m-

r h. Hwvr, h

rr, Sz, vr

-r v r r r whh

r w h r. Ar h

r mmr rr h

Sz vr w r . Ahh

vr j vr hv vv

w , r hv r rm

r mmr r .

Th k rr r, mv

h rm r r m

r k -r

r r mk r

wr vr rv rr.B wh r m rw

w 4–5 r r m, r

vm rqr j m rr

m , whh r rrv

m r hh m r

— m r m rwh.

The Future: Alternative Energy?

D h h r v

r, Ar h r r h

vm rv rw r

r—r r w-r.

Ar v r, Srh

r hv m

m mjr rr xrr r

wr Er, rv h h v vm

r v mmr

m v. I h vm wr

r, w vr h r mx

h r h r xr, r

r r hrh vr ,

wh r h r r

m h .

H rj rm h vm

rw r hm Ar

r- r wr r wh mr

rm k Er m k

r, r h




mmr hr. Ahh rv EU mkr, h xr

r r wr Er v mr

rm -v

. Th mmr m h r

wr r Ar vr

m r Nrhr Er v S

I, mv r rv mr

v rv, rqr mv

hk. Dm r r h hr

r S I m r

v rhwr k

m r m. S vmw w rm

rqr rh mr rhr r m

r—w m h r r

hr Er Er rv h r

r hr r x

w rrr— m v

rr hvr.

Th m m—h r r

r wr, h

rm r, h rr

rm-r v—r Arwh mmr h rk.

Ar r k r hr

w EU r vm m.

Th r h mr EU mmr

r w h r rmm

r ‘r’ r wr rv rv.

Srr r h h m mmr

r m hr r, m v

mwh rv, EU m r.

Th m, k h r,

h EU mmr w mhw r

r wh Ar h ‘r’r h m r

wh Er rv, hr rwr

mmr v. Th m r r

rm h mrk

h rm , xr rj r h

hm k rhm, rmxr rv vr. B h m

rj r, h r q

r Er’ r r r. Er’ r

Ar w r— j

r , r h r, r

r w.

The Challenges Ahead

I Srh hv rwh r

r r r xr r,

m vrm v mjr h w

h rm rm r r Er. Th r , r

. S,

rwr r rqr vm.

Thr, Srh m mhw mr rr

vz mmr rm h r r

-m

r r rr vm

mr. Frh, h r rm

w rj h m r mrk,

rm r. F, mk

h, Srh r, r

m wh h r k rv

h rj r m

m, h rh m.

Securing New Reserves

Th r h h w

r rm rrv. Ar w hv

k r mr m

r , rwh

r— vr h hr mm

rm. Ahh Srh k vr

m xr , m w vrhv rm

whr h h h

h mmr rvr rrv r

m. Th w h hw

h h h r





m r, vr xv v.M w vr r hrr vr

‘h’ rrvr rm h rqr

r- - r h

xv m h.

Th w vr r r

xrm r rr, r

r h r h rr

w rrv h rhr hr r,

whh r 8 km . Eh w

rrv mmr q rr

hm h hr r , hwvr, h

h r. S w vm w rqr r x hr

r r w rrv

rm h hr vr

r r xr m km h

rh. A vm m, w xr

rrr w rqr m

v r — whr x

rrr rr.

Sr q k

h r x r

m r m rwh. Rrvr Ar’ r

v, rr r.

Fr h x r r

h mjr r r r

r h rm h

Er. Rrvr mm

xv x h

h, m wr, hm

. I rr , m vm

rr r, - r, r w-

h m h m x

r , m.Hwvr, wh rm rrv

r r r q vr

. Th r ‘w rr’

mk hr rm mr , r

k v vr mrk .

Ar’ H R’M xxm; rv h mjr Ar’

r (~8 m, wh hr r-

j r q r, v

r 5 m r xr). Ovr h r, H

R’M h x Srh

m r Ar , hr w r

rm v h rrvr rr r

r h wh m

m rvr rrv. Th rk h

h r h m,

rrv m rrv r

r w v r. Wh rr( xv) rrvr mm, hr

rm m jr m rvr

rrv h r rm.

Attracting Sustainable Investment

Th rrq rwr r

r xr rm Ar vm. Sr

h rqr w, r,

r h rr mjr h

r Srh. T U.S. r r

r x w rrv r

rh mrk; Ar’ hrr r r

wrh h h r. Cr,

rm, r

h k w vr

mrk. Ahh Srh’ vr r

rr h , r vm

w h h h rm

x , mrv rvr r

hr rm, rv

xv w rrv. Fr xm, Srh’

rvr r r v rrvr

r j 5 r, w rrv r Ar’ .

Hwvr, Ar, r r vm

x m m wh mr h

r rj h m vr,

vr vm h r

Srh r r r h h




rr r r. A q,rrvr mm m r rr

vm rr h h rm

rm v h h .

D Ar’ h r xh rrv—

m x $4 —

r m rm hrr xr h

rr h v Srh

m vm r. Wkr r

r hv vr m Srh’ r

xh r, whh mk 97 r

h ’ rv 4 r GDP.Srh m wh rv hh

rr . Wh vr r,

Ar’ rm mmr r

w rm m. I m

r m r rw rm rrv—

rrv whh hr r m m

m. Fr xm, h m

r rqr rwr Ar’

rrmm rm vm m m

r wrm rj h r

r rw Srh’

m wrm . Ovr r-vm h rr r h

Ar wh r hr m r

m mrk. Ovr h w r Ar

h h mr mr

m k m m rr

, vm m, k

h r h r rqr

r v r.

Tk hr, h m m r

vm r r

h Ar Trr. Wh m r mrk, Srh w hr hv

w rj w

h, r k r j vr

rr r . I h

m r rm, rr

mjr h r Ar wr wh

m m r r , k . Ahh Srh r

hv h rqr

m rm m r, hr

v rj rm

. P r h

hv w mr mk

m r rr wr h x

r r. Prv mmr

rk wh r r vm

Ar, xr r h Ar’

r vm w, rhr m wr

w . Fr r h vmrqr r h x r Ar

rj h mrk, h rh m,

hrr hr Er’ r

r r.

Partnerships of Mutual Advantage

Th hr hr h Srh m r

m m r h

wrk rm hrm rrh

wh r vr. I Srh hv

r , wrk h r

h wh r rr k

w rr r k

xr h Er mrk

mv w. Sr, r rrh

w Srh r r

rr w r h h, , mrk

, rj mm k r

h v h m.

T r h rr, Ar m rm

vz mmr r

rm r r vm. Hwvr,

h r r vm, h

v v j vr v,

r vm Ar’ r

hw mrk r wr rr r

m. Fr vm h r

r m mr, , mx.





Cmmr r rr hv mvrm ‘h r’ r wh

mmr rk v. R

rv mmr rm v h

r rr rv rm vm

r v whr ( v

h m r hw r vr

h w r). Th x

hrr w, h r x

hrr h mmr rm

r, mk , m, r

r rr v h v h

mmr rv w. I , v rrv w r x hv

v r r vr wh rr.

Sh mr r r-rv

rr r vm wh r

m r Ar’ rm r

rh wh Er.

Eh Er’ r r hrr

j h Ar’ rm

r rrv v r,

mr hh h r;

r w rrv mrk rr r mk hm mv. T

r h r m r

vm, h r mrk r,

, mm—q h r

r Ar’ rr

m m. Fr vm rj

h m r mmr r

rm h rv r khr wh

h ‘r’ r h h

rm .

Capturing Future Market Demand

Sr w mrk r rm ,

rr mrk, h rh

m Ar’ r . Dr h

r r hh r r, Srh

mv wr rr r hrr rm

- r r rvmrk mr r

rm rm r r w

r mr. Shrr rm

r r rr vr r

vr- r m r r

mm rm -k rv.

B mv rm whr Ar

mr v , Srh h

x mm mrk rk. Srh h

h m r r

wh hr r. Sh

-- m h h rmrhr r hhr rr . Fr

xm, LNG rm Qr Ar’ Nrh

W Sh hv Er, mr

rxm r r h Srh,

whh h r

9 .

Tm r. Ev h m

vrm k wr v r

r w vr mrk. Cq,

-mk m w

j-, rwr hk, mrk m. I w Ar r

m Er r mrk rr

r h vr-, Srh w

hv r rv w m r

mv r. Th rr r

r vm whr m

r whr mrk m rm

r v r rm r wh -

r r vm r k.

Th r vm ‘rr’ w

Srh r rr rj Ar k r

rr r w rr mrk.

Hwvr, hr G T r h Skk LNG r-vm hv r mrk; h rj wr Srh wh k mrk rk.




h h ‘-h-h ’ whAr m hk r . Th

r r rm xr , v

m wrk r. Cm r h

r k r h m h h

hm; Srh m w

r rm mrk r

. Hwvr, rm v

h Srh r

hr hh k ; r

r m h rqr k,

mr, m m

r r rj m.

A Srh’

r h rqr k m

wrk rrh wh r r

m. Th r h r vr

h Srh rv , r, r

r hrh r; hr

m rk (, mmr,

mrk); r xr

(k hm rr);

rm r k h. Cr

wh rr v j vr rm rm rk m , hwvr, m

h m v mmr rm

r mk j vr rv

v h vr vr hr

hrhr. I h m, h

r r m r w

h Srh k r hm

rr rqr k h rr

rh, h.

Srh h h q

w r r r wh hk rqr r r

xv rr rm. Ahh hr

hr Ar wh h k

h r, m r w

r r vrm h m

v vr m rr

Rr rrm Srh’vw rz r

vm r. A Srh mr

rr vr r mrk

v rr vz mmr rm m

h rr h r

m r r, h r

mr q rh w hmv

vr Ar. I h r,

Ar r m

rh wh Er r rr r

Er’ h-- r mr. Ahh

Er rr r r mrkrh Ar’ r hr hr

q v, q rv, rv

r—mh h Srh

w r r.

People and Skills—an Essential Ingredient

F, r h r r r

r rqr k hm

—h h rrq vr

Srh’ r. Sk h r

h rv r mx ;

r r m wrk

h vr h rrv

r rh h r, r

rr xr . A rj

m rr mr mx h r

h v h mv, rj

mm xr m r m.

Mrk k w rqr h

kw w mrk,

rr mrk, h

r mx mm

wr r rk mm h h r h w

r h .

Th r h r xr,

v, r Ar’ rrv

mrrw. Th r r. Nr





mr m rm hr mr. O h, rv

m hrh r r k

v h r k r whr.

Ur r Ar, hh-k r

w h m m.

Future Euro-Algerian Energy Cooperation

I , v r rqr r

Ar rm r

r Er. Fr, mr w rrv

h r mv r m

k wh r. S, rqr rv r rrr

vm. Thr, r w mrk m

w r rm r. Frh,

r r vm mv

vrm Ar m v mr

rv m wrk wh

r vr rr vz

mmr rm h r rv r.

A , m mr, Srh

r r wh h rh k

r rj r rr h m

m— rk Er r r h

r.

Ev h , hrr , rh h

w w x h h Ar r

r. M h h w h

r Er’ rm r r

h w rr h w r.

B h rh h rm

vm , k,

, Ar h h rm mjr

r r Er. B Ar w hv

r m r mrk

vr rj mrk m

mv r. L rm rrh whr vr q rk hr

r mmr rr r r r h

w r h r. Sh r

r m v h,

, mrk, k. I h w, Ar w

r h m r rr

m r m vm. Eq,

Er mr w r h hr

rm r w m wh h h

r, r rwrh Ar

rr. I h rm, rr

wr EU-Ar Er Ar rwr h r

mr r rh k k

. Wh h rm, h

w h rr.



O f f

Washinton • Berlin • Bratislava • ParisBrussels • Belrade • Ankara • Bucharest

www.gm.g

can algeria be a stable and sustainable source of energy for europe?

Documents