Can 5G save Australia from the NBN catastrophe?

$2270

$500

$1140 $1190

$520

$2370

$1230

$540

$2480

$1270

$560

$2600

$1310

$570

$2710

$1360

$590

$28104.6%4.6%

4.7%4.8%

4.8%4.8%

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Mobile Indirect Related Industry GDP Contribution

Source：GSMA Intelligence，2019年2月Source：GSMA Intelligence，Feb,2019

Mobile Industry's Contribution to GDP Will

Increase Year by Year5G will drive 5.3% GDP growth in 15 years

$ billion，% GDP 2018

5G will be the main enabler of the 4th Industrial Revolution

6%

14%

16%

35%

29%

5.3% 5G Contribution

by 2034

ICT & Trade

Public Services

Agriculture & Mining

Manufacturing & Utilities

Professional&

Financial Services

3

What are the actual NetworkREQUIREMENTS

CLOUD

PC

CLOUD

GAMING

CLOUD

AR/VR

all H.264 codec based

NBN project – The technology flaw

Committed Peak Wholesale DL speeds [1]:

50 Mb/s to 90% of fixed-line network*

25 Mb/s to all premises (buildings)

• P3 2018 (MN Mb/s): Telstra (98), Optus (93), VHA (86)

• Fixed/Mobile Speed Ratio = 30 (ideal**), 0.25 (actual)

Goal by 2020:

8 mn homes and businesses connected by 2020

• 25 mn people in 2019 12+ mn households (58%) by 2036

*) The NBN was originally set to be delivered via Fibre to the Premises (FTTP) technology to 93% of all

premises, however this would be later changed to FTTN/C with copper and HFC with coaxial cables

**) Huawei single-wavelength 50G PON (50/25 Gb/s) for 5G (10Gb/s/cell) and Cloud

Gaming, PC, AR/VR (>100Mb/s – 1Gb/s, <10ms e2e latency) services which pose strict requirements

on delay and clock synchronization Link

Corporate Plan 2019 – 2022

20dB

NBN project – The business model flaw

Invested $51* billion [1] and achieved [2]:

a) ~1 million of its fixed-broadband end-user premises get less than 50Mbps [3]

b) ~200,000 fibre-to-the-node (FTTN) services aren’t hitting minimum peak speeds of 25Mbps [4]

*) Much higher due to Telstra overhead of $100 bn in long-term lease payments

nbn™

RSP

U

Telstra

What could You

have actually built

for that $151 bn?

B2B2B2C = $151 billion!

RSP = Retail Service Providers (iinet, Telstra, Optus, etc.)

U = Consumer or enterprise customer (end-user)

$

$

$

Overbooking!

NBN Project – The mixed-technology flaw, e.g. FWN

Spent ~ $4 billion on FWN (Distance Tx – Premise up to 14 km) [5,6]:

a) ~ 280,000 activated end-users (@ ~$10,000 / household) [7]

b) 6 Mb/s (of expected up to 50 Mb/s) to many end-user premises at peak-time [8]

Feedback:

- In some cases, better experience with ADSL before we decided to spend $51 billion on the NBN

- Backhaul congestion between NBN’s Fixed Wireless towers and its Transit Network

Tx Premise

The shorter wavelengths of mmWave is not an option!

• Restricted distance at which mmWaves can

propagate time- and cost-intensive endeavor

requiring a massive infrastructure build-out (cost) [11]

• Easily blocked by obstacles like walls, foliage, and

the human body itself No ways to maintaining

connectivity across a broader area in Australia

The figures show the difference

in “splat” (propagation) between

28 GHz (mmWave) and 3.4

GHz (sub-6) deployments on

the same pole height in a

relatively flat part of Los

Angeles (blue represents

100Mbps speed, red represents

1Gbps speed)

100Mb/s

1Gb/s

100Mb/s

1Gb/s

Using a database of utility poles in the United States, a study indicated that it

would require approximately 13 million pole-mounted base stations and $400B

dollars in CAPEX to deliver 100 Mb/s edge rate at 28GHz to 72% of the U.S.

population, and up to 1Gb/s to approximately 55% of the U.S. population [11]

26 GHz challenges = 28 GHz challenges!

Examples of negative effects on Australia

1. ‘Digital divide’ denying access to revolutionary technology: from Cloud PC, Gaming, AR/VR,

streaming services, to Tele-healthcare, education and Industry 4.0

2. Prevented multiple industries to capitalise on an ever-increasing field of digital

technologies, e.g. emerging Australian gaming market ($100 million/year)

3. Many technology companies moving overseas to meet the demand of

increasing expectations that the Australian government cannot meet domestically

4. The rest of the world continues to pioneer new technologies and modes for

the coming digital era that Australia cannot adapt with

5. One thing is for sure: The Fourth-Industrial Revolution is here, and

unless Australia adapts to the ever-increasing global demands that digital

disruption is predicted to bring to the world, we may find ourselves

losing our position (3rd) as one of the world’s leaders in innovation!

Link

Questions

• How did this happen?

• What could have been done differently?

• Has anyone been held accountable for it?

• Can 5G save Australia from the NBN

catastrophe? Or will it be another NBN disaster?

• Why is that matter to Huawei being banned from

NBN (08/2012) and 5G (08/2018)?

Way forward – Example for outer-suburban and regional areas /

• NBN Co cannot do this whole thing by itself:

a) No more money

b) 1Gb/s currently priced > $350/month [11]

• New ways for outer-suburban and regional areas, where

the FWN and FTTN don’t meet requirements:

• More of Mobile Black Spot Program: Government’s $380 mn

$760 million, delivering 1,000+ new base stations across Australia

• New PPP involving state and local governments, mobile network

operators (Optus, Telstra and Vodafone), businesses and local

communities [10]

Huawei 5G Paves the Way to Large Scale Commercialization

11

28

6

1

Middle East

Europe

Asia Pacific

Africa

Commercial Contracts

50+ 150,000+Shipments

M-MIMO

Others4Americas

Leading in 5G Research & Standardization Contribution

16000+ Contributions of 5G No.1 in Essential Patents Declaration in 5G

All contributions

print as A49m

Huawei

20%

Nokia

12%

LGE

12%Ericsson

11%

Samsung

10%

Qualcomm

10%

ZTE

8%

Intel

5%

Sharp

4%

CATT

3%

OPPO

3%

InterDigital

1%others

1%

Source: ETSI

16000+ 3GPP 5G NR Contributions

From 2015Q1-2018Q4

More than 2,570 patents!

152cities/villages

with 5G by

the end of

March 2019

30Mbps

Lowest FBB Speed

99%

FBB Coverage

45%

Copper Based FBB

1. Switzerland is one of the most advanced FBB market

2. Almost half of the FBB is copper based, difficult to replace with

fiber, hence speed upgrade is bottleneck

FTTH

covered

FTTH plannedRemaining 70%: 5G Air Fiber

5G Air Fiber for 70% of non-fiber covered areas Device:

5G CPE2.0Internet TV

TV

Phone

Xiaomi

Mi Mix 3

Oppo

Reno

Huawei

Mate 20 X

“Full Service Competitiveness” with 5G FWA

Sunrise Overwhelming 5G Commercial Promotionshttps://www.huawei.com/en/press-events/news/2019/4/huawei-sunrise-5g-fwa-pioneer-users-switzerland

BT/EE Launched 5G in 6 Cities, Leading in 5G UK Markethttps://www.t3.com/news/ee-5g-network-launches-today-prices-starts-from-pound32-a-month

• 5G services to mobile customers in six cities: London, Birmingham, Manchester, Cardiff, Edinburgh, and Belfast

• EE plans to roll out service to 10 more cities in the area by the end of 2019. (More than 100 new sites to 5G every month.)

• 5G services as a NSA deployment on top of its 4G network offering access to both networks with “unprecedented” download speeds

• Band n78 with download speeds of 150 Mbps for most customers. (Some customers may see up to 1 Gbps speeds.)

• 5G-capable smartphones from OnePlus, Oppo and LG to customer

• 5G access costs customers £54 ($68) per month for 10 GB of data, or £74 ($94) per month for 120 GB

• Phase 2 in 2022, with 5G core network, and Phase 3 slated for 2023, with URLLC, network slicing and multigigabit-per-second speeds

Link

152Gbps Throughput

5G Network in Dense

UrbanOutdoor Everywhere

Peak Throughput

Indoor Experience

5G technology and product maturity

TransportCore RAN Device

Best 5G end-to-end partner

Best 5G commercial readiness & performance

Massive MIMO UL/DL Decoupling 10Gbps MWCloud Native Core

First IoDTPre-commercial Voice call

30 Operators 10 big Cities

10 years 95% shipment share 73% Enhancement（BT& EE） 1st SBA Prototype60% NFV

64/32TRx

200W+200MHz

Huawei 5G Innovation: 3-Best & 2-Leading

Two ways for Low Cost Rural Coverage – The Huawei RuralStar*/Lite

A: Improve Macro Sites Efficiency, Expand Coverage

B: RuralStar/Lite Site for Accurate Coverage of Village or Road, Low Cost and Fast Deployment

Macro Site, Wider CoverageRuralStar/Lite Site, Centralized Coverage

Country Side/Rural

Lite Site

Small Village

Village

RuralStar

Village

*) RuralStar Solution Won GSMA 2018

‘Best Mobile Innovation for Emerging Markets’ Award

Huawei the wins the most at MWC: 6 Awards

Best Mobile Innovation for

Automotive - Huawei for C-V2X Solution

Best Mobile Technology

Breakthrough- Huawei 5G RAN Innovation

Best Smartphone- Huawei Mate 20 Pro

Best Mobile Innovation for Smart Cities - Gaoqing Government & Huawei for Adding “Smart”

to “Happy”

Best Mobile Operator Service for

Consumers - Sunrise & Huawei HD/UHD Video Service

over 5G FWA

Best New Connected Mobile Device @

MWC2019- Huawei Mate X

Conclusions

1. Huawei is celebrating its 15th year of business in Australia and we are

committed to care deeply about the future of this country

2. Makes no sense for Australia to continue to exclude the world’s leading 5G

technology provider, when we could deliver what Australians so badly need

3. Huawei has been the vendor of choice to 5G launches from both EE in the UK

and Vodafone in Spain – with plenty more to come in due course: 5G is ON!

4. We need to forget mmWave, Satellites and adopt a different approach to

delivering universal high-speed broadband* and doing nothing is not an option!

*) Cyber Security can be handled and shall be managed, regardless Link

Thank you!

Referenceshttp://huaweihub.com.au/david-soldani-talks-5g-in-australia/

[1] Page 38 - NBN Corporate Plan

https://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco2/2018/documents/media-centre/corporate-plan-report-2019-2022.pdf

[2] IT News report on Senate Estimates answer

https://www.itnews.com.au/news/nbn-co-reveals-uneven-spread-of-50mbps-capable-premises-520166

[3] Report in IT News

https://www.itnews.com.au/news/nbn-co-reveals-183000-fttn-users-dont-get-over-25mbps-523378

[4] The Monthly

https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2017/april/1490965200/paddy-manning/network-error

[5] NBN Media Release details additional $800 million investment in Fixed Wireless

https://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco2/2018/documents/media-centre/media-release-fixed-wireless-plus.pdf

[6] Page 64 - NBN Corporate Plan

https://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco2/2018/documents/media-centre/corporate-plan-report-2019-2022.pdf

[7] $4 billion total investment divided by 282,000 activated Fixed Wireless end-user premises

[8] IT News report based on NBN Senate submission.

https://www.itnews.com.au/news/nbn-co-has-under-500-congested-fixed-wireless-cells-488914

[9] IT News report based on NBN Senate submission

https://www.itnews.com.au/news/nbn-cos-wireless-congestion-likely-worse-than-reported-523601

[10] https://spirit.com.au/horsham/

[11] Report in The Australian

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/technology/one-gigabitpersecond-nbn-connections-find-few-takers/news-story/3d183cfe641662a07d957ecad9ef113c

[12] https://media.defense.gov/2019/Apr/03/2002109302/-1/-1/0/DIB_5G_STUDY_04.03.19.PDF