Campaigns and ElectionsRules of the Game

Elections: The Rules of the Game

Constitution sets conditions/requirements but states determines most electoral rules.

Regularly Scheduled Elections

Occur on the 1st Tuesday after the first Monday in November of even-numbered yearsElections occur regardless of war or crisisThere are exceptions for special elections/state provisions

Elections: The Rules of the Game

Fixed, staggered, and Sometimes Limited Terms

Electoral terms are fixed terms (length is specified not indefinite)

House: 2 YearsSenate: 6 Years President: 4 Years

Staggered Terms: Not all offices are up for election at the same timeElection Cycle: All House are running where only 1/3 of Senate are.

Senators can run for Presidency while still holding their seat (Obama '08, McCain '08, Kerry '04)

Most states prohibit running for two offices (Senate & President) in the same election but some states allow it (Connecticut)

Elections: The Rules of the Game

Term Limits

22nd Amendment (1951): Limits presidents to two terms

Lame Duck: Official who cannot or will not run again, less influential

Should Virginia have term limits on state legislatures?Should there be limits on U.S. Congressional seats?

1990s brought change towards term limits15 states have limits on their legislatures

Congress refuses to propose a constitutional amendment to place limits on their own terms.

Elections: The Rules of the Game

Winner-take-all System

Candidate only needs the most votes; not the majority

Centrist candidates tend to win more elections in this system. Why?Single-member districts choose only one official so combining that with a winner-take-all system really hard for 3rd Parties to winProportional representation most accurately reveals how voters truly feel and gives voters who did not win the plurality some form of influence

Primaries and CaucusesPrimariesMost decisive way to nominate presidential candidates30 states have primariesUses of Primaries·Proportional representation (Dems)·Winner take all (Only Reps)·Non-preferential primary·Open Primaries·Dual Primary: Pres. candidate and delegates are voted on (New Hampshire)

Caucuses Were used before primaries to nominateCaucuses are closed meetings where party members meet the candidates, ask questions, discuss qualifications, and vote on to endorse or notMost direct form of democracyIowa still uses a caucus and 1st official indication of viability

Only three Presidents since 1952 have lost the New Hampshire primary but went on to win the Presidency (Clinton, Bush Jr, and Obama)

How do superdelegates influence the power of party leaders?• Party leaders are now assured a role in the nomination process, regardless of which candidate they support. • Party leaders can cast the deciding vote in close nomination contests. • Superdelegates are unpledged and therefore can change their minds on candidates as the process unfolds.

Democrats and the Superdelegates

A super-delegate is a leader in the National Democratic Party who has a vote at the national convention; they are not selected by state party members.

Elections: The Rules of the Game

Election Process Phase 1

Invisible Primary: period between a candidate's announcement he/she is running

Begin to actively raise money (Start up cost: 100 Mil)*Much of a politicians time is spent fundraising

Searches for major donors/obtain "front-runner" status

Design a strategic campaign plan

Elections: The Rules of the Game

Election Process Phase 2

Primary Season (10 Months before Election Day)Iowa Caucus/New Hampshire Primaries among the earliest (held in January)Many candidates would have dropped by this point leaving the most well known to compete in the 3rd phase

Elections: The Rules of the Game

Election Process

3rd PhaseSuper Tuesday: Important regional primaries in February and MarchAfter Super Tuesday one candidate usually has the necessary delegates needed for the nomination

*Except 2008Period between the informal nomination and the National Convention

Gives candidates time to unify their parties and continue to raise funds for the general election

Elections: The Rules of the Game

Election Process

Nominating Convention (4th Phase)Party out of power holds convention firstWin support of the majority of delegates here and you win the nominationFunctions of Convention

Adopt party platformKeynote SpeechNominating speechesAcceptance of VP and Presidential nominations

Leads to a temporary increase in positive ratings (Convention Bounce)

Elections: The Rules of the Game

Election Process

What to do in the General CampaignMaintain the Convention BounceContinue to raise fundsVisit key swing states Unify the electorateWin over undecided voters

Presidential Musts to WinTarget the campaign: Decide what states to target, battleground states, must win, etc.

Take advantage of political assets: If you're the incumbent president, use this to your advantage. Sometimes being an incumbent can hurt (Carter Iran Hostage, Obama Benghazi)

Develop an image the voter responds to: Public responds to personality; Clinton portrayed himself as fighter against extremists; Obama appearing on many shows viewed by youth, women, and minorities; Put political spins on issues that may hurt you

Presidential Musts to WinAttract the support of diverse groups: Democrats tend to paint the Republicans as a party of rich and big business groups

Use issues and events for their own advantage: Romney attacked Obama on the economy and foreign policy while Obama attacked Romney on his economic plan and business record

Take advantage of the media: TV ads, political debates, 527 Independent Groups (exempt from the law as IRS 527 Regulations)

*What grabs the attention of the news for candidates?

Use the campaign organization/workers to get the vote out: Local level party members are responsible for this step; phone calls, door to door, posters, etc

How many people, where it's at, sound bites, photo ops

Elections: The Rules of the Game

Electoral College

Indirect device used to elect the U.S. President and VP

Framers did not trust the choice of POTUS to go to a direct vote

Number of Electors is number of senators and representatives added up: Ex) Virginia: 2 Senators + 11 Representatives = 13 Electoral Votes

Each state legislature determines who will be designated to be an electorUsually loyal party workers

Supposed to cast their vote along with the state's popular vote"Faithless Elector" Elector who doesn't vote based with popularity of

state but has never determined the outcome of an election

Elections: The Rules of the Game

Electoral College

Electors ballots sent to Congress where they meet in January to "formally" count the votes and determine a winner

Majority of electoral votes to win (270)

Candidates can win popular vote (2000) but not the electoral vote

If no one reaches 270 then the newly elected Congress votes the 1st week of January (Jan. 3rd)

Elections: The Rules of the Game

Electoral College

House gets one vote for the top three presidential candidates (Winner needs 26 votes)States in the House get only one vote each so Congressmen have to agree.Senate votes for the top two vice presidential candidates(Winner needs 51/100 senate votes)Is possible to have a President from one party and VP from the other.

Breaking News: Election 2012 Results in Tie

House Votes

Senate Votes

(Republican)

(Democratic)

Boehner: Speaker

Daniel InouyePro Tempore

How the Electoral College Defines Campaigns

·Resource allocation or focus on competitive states, swing states, and large states where candidates spend their time or money or buy media.·Issues (an issue may swing a bloc of voters in a state).·Choice of Vice-President (regional balance).

Third Parties and the Electoral CollegeElectoral College can hinder success of minor parties·3rd parties may carry a lot of the popular vote but if they do not win the state they receive zero electoral votes·Fundraising becomes an issue due to the electoral vote causing difficulty to raise funds and other campaign resources

Why has it not been changed?

·Helps to ensure that a majority of electoral votes are earned by one candidate.·History/tradition.·Would require constitutional amendment.·No clear consensus on an alternative·Collectively benefits small states·Racial minorities (and interest group) in some states like the Electoral College because it protects their votes.·Collectively benefits large states.·Competitive states like it.·Favors two-party system.

Elections: The Rules of the Game

Federal Election Campaign ActSets up restrictions on·the amount of advertising ·created disclosure of contributions over $100·limited the amount of personal contributions of candidates and relatives·Establish campaign equality·Established the FEC (1974)

Response to the Watergate Scandal

FEC enforce federal law and is to match funds with presidential candidates in primaries and the general election (Candidate has to raise $5000 in 20 states to receive public funding, disclose donor information and limit campaign expenditures)

Elections: RegulationsMcGovern-Fraser CommissionCommission formed at the 1968 Democratic convention in response to demands for reform by minority groups and others who sought better representation.Goal of Commission: Make the party more democraticEstablished new rules for the nominee/delegate process·Incorporate more women and minorities as delegates·Proportional representation·Introduced superdelegates that could vote as they pleased at the convention

The McCain-Feingold Act (2002) is the US federal law that regulates the financing of political campaigns also known as the BCRAFocused on: Soft money in campaign financing Issue ads Controversial campaign practices during the 1996 federal elections Increasing political contribution limits for private individualsWhat is the loophole we've discussed with this?

527 Organizations

Obstacles in Campaign Reform

Buckley v. Valeo (1976)Supreme Court struck down certain campaign donation limits and spending limits as violation of free expression provisions of 1st AmendmentHow it's an obstacle·Contributing to one’s own campaign, contributing to parties for party building, and spending money independently of a campaign are forms of protected free expression.·A constitutional amendment is required to limit free expression, not a more easily enacted statute.

Obstacles in Campaign Reform

Soft MoneyUnregulated donations to political parties for party activities/party building Usually spent in the states to aid candidates indirectly in various waysHow it's an obstacle·Both parties benefit from soft money, so partisan members of Congress and presidents have little incentive to regulate this resource; there is no critical policy-making mass for reform·Interest groups are often the contributors of these funds, perceive benefits from their use, and have no incentive to urge office seekers or incumbents with whom they have a relationship to regulate these monies.

Obstacles in Campaign Reform

IncumbencyAn office holder who is pursuing reelectionHow it's an obstacle·Incumbents benefit most from existing campaign finance laws·Incumbents have a high probability of re-election and thus attract more donations than challengers, which gives them a desirable advantage in re-election contests.·Incumbents know the consequences of current policy, find them favorable, and realize that changes may create unanticipated negative consequences for themselves.

Are we more democratic today?

·States hold primaries for average voters·Primaries give those voters some say in the nomination process·Prior to the changes of the McGovern-Fraser Commission presidential candidates were nominated without approval of the electorate