cambodia debt

KEM LEY | Principal investigatorNHIM DALEN |ConsultantBORAY BORALIN | Data AnalystUMAKANT SINGH | Advisor

CAMBODIA DEBT

28 Feb 2011

I. Cambodia Debt

People Debt

Publicly Guaranteed Debt

Public

Debt

Getting from formal and informal micro finance Institutions (FMI) & Individual

Getting from developed and economic powerful countries and international finance institutions

Getting from international finance institutions such as ADB, WB, IFM and others

I. Cambodia Debt

USA>300 Millions

China4 B

Others

Russia1.5 B

Total: 4.2 B US$42 M US$ Paid on external debt in 2008

1.8 B-Two-third

60% or 94% public debt

As of 2004, debt was 3.2 B or 66% of GDP, WB source 2004

Debt from 2004-2011

1,609 B. Aid Effectiveness Report 2011, RGC

US + Russia+2004-2011= 4,809 Billions

Cheam Yap7 BillionsBut PM declared only 2 billions or 27.7% of GDP (12,92 B )

I. Cambodia Debt

Public Debt7.4 Billions as of 2011 (USA:

300 + Russia 1.5 _ China 4 B + other

1.6 )

People with DebtMore than 1

millions of clients of MFI

Publicly Guaranteed

Debt????

Direct Debt of Cambodia People is around 500 US$ per HH or around 50% of Cambodia People fell in serious debt

Public Debt is around 7 billion US$ in 2011Or 500 US$ per individual (14 millions of Cambodia Population )-Indirect Debt of Cambodia Population

II. AID PER CAPITA & AID/GDP Ratio

Source: Effectiveness Report 2011, RGC

II. Disbursement and Projection

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

387.2 438.8578.9 559.9

708.9 752.7 810.6 809.4 795.9

486.5

231

188.2171.2

134.3 217.6

271.6 244264.4

117.8

346.9

346.2

279.9

LoanGrant

Disbursement and Projection 2004-2014 (US$ Million)


I. Cambodia Debt

World Bank Report

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 20250

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

30 30 30 3028 27

21

11

Debt /GDP ratio

I. Cambodia Debt

World Bank Report

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 20250

50

100

150

200

250235

222 214 204 193 184

142

74

Debt /National Revenue Ratio

II. NGO disbursement (2005-2010)


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

44.70 50.2077.70

110.70 108.40127.50

59.50

113.30

100.20

100.20 97.50

92.90

Provided by DPCore Fund

Million US$

I. EU Debt

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sovereign_credit_default_swaps.png

I. GREEK Debt

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Greece_public_debt_1999-2010.svg

I. USA an Other countries with Debt

Cambodia : GDP 12,92 B or 27.7% of GDP or 61 % of GDP

Thailand: 44 % of GDP

EU: 60-70% of GDP, EU : 86% of GDP in 2010

USA : 101 % of GDP , 32 Billions

Greek 173 % of GDP in 2011 or 340 B

ITALY: 120 % of GDP or 2.4 T in 2010

SPAIN: 60% of GDP or 820 Billions

http://thegatewaypundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/per-capita-debt.bmp

I. Cambodia Economic Overview

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

8.10%

6.60%

8.50%

10.30%

13.30%

10.80%10.20%

6.70%

0.10%

6.00%

6.50% 6.50%6.50%

Cambodia’s Real GDP Growth Rate

GDP Annual Growth

Source: Draft of National Budget Plan 2012 and Three year Rolling Investment Plan 2012-2014, RGC, MoEF

Estimation NSDP 2009-

2013

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

455514

594

738 731

830 853915

981

TREND OF GDP PER CAPITA

GDP per capita

Source: Draft of National Budget Plan 2012 and Income statement 2010, Three years of Public Investment Plan 2012-2014 and NSDP 2009-2013 RGC, MoEF


2013


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

19.80%

0.60%

4.00% 4.50%3.50% 3.00%

TREND OF ANNUAL INFLATION RATE

Annual Inflation

Price of Goods Public Financial Mgt ‘Stable Macroeconomic environment Stable Exchange Rate

Source: Draft of National Budget Plan 2012 and Income statement 2010, Three years of Public Investment Plan 2012-2014 and NDSP 2009-2013, MoP, RGC


2013

High Price of oil, food and other commodities



2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

15.70%

5.50% 5.00% 5.70% 5.60%4.00% 4.10% 4.20% 3.80% 3.70%

12.70%

18.30%

8.40%

4.00%

-9.50%

13.60%

9.20% 9.40% 9.90% 9.30%

13.10%

10.10% 10.10%9.00%

0.00%

3.30%

5.70% 5.70%7.10% 7.30%

AgricultureIndustryServices

COMPOSITION OF CAMBODIA ECONOMIC GROWTH & INDUSTRY SECTOR

Estimation Three Year –Public Investment Plan

2012-2014


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

9.20%

20.40%

10.00%

2.20%

-9.80%

18.50%

11.60% 11.20%11.20%

10.00%

TREND OF GDP GROWTH BY GARMENT FACTORY’s CONTRIBUTION

Garment Factory


Estimation Three Year –Public Investment Plan

2012-2014


II. Total Disbursement shared (1992-2011)


22.50%

17.60%

10.20%9.40%6.60%

6.50%

5.90%

5.50%

4.90%

8.90%

Total 11.82 B US$

EUJapanADBNGOsUSAUNWBChinaAustraliaOther

II. Total Disbursement & Used (1992-2011)


16.90%

15.60%

13.10%

10.60%

9.40%

7.80%

6.90%

4.70%

3.20% 11.90%

Total 11.82 B US$

Health &HIVGov/AdmTransportEducationRural DevAgricCommunity/Social CultureEnergyOthers

III. Public Investment-2012-2014

408 Projects (3,990 millions US$)

2014 (1,202 M$

2013 (1,353 M $)

2012 (1,435 M $)

INVESTMENT IN JOB CONDITIONS IMPROVEMENT ????

21801810

408 Projects of Cambodia In-vestment Rolling Plan 2012-2014

147 Projects ( Process)261 Projects (Need)

Budget Estimation

DPs RGC Sub-total

Available Fund

2,154 M$ 474 M$ 2,628 M$

Required Mobilization

1,361 M$

Total 3,990M$


32%

24%21%

21%

Estimation Fund for Investment Program 2012-2014, Rolling Plan

Social SectorEconomic SectorInfrastructureService Sector

65%

35%

Proportion of Urban and Rural

Rural Urban


12% 4%

12%

4%4%

4%

12%

4%

12%

4%4%

1%2%2%

4%

4%2% 8%

Need for Public Investment Program Rolling Plan 2012-2014

EducationVocational SkillsHealthSocial Protection Agriculture and Land mgtSeasonal Agr productionRural DevelopmentMineral & Business TransportationWater and SanitationEnergy and ElectricityTelecommunicationGender MainstreamingTourismEnvironmnent & ConservationCommunity and Social ServiceCulture and ArtAdmin and Governance

Public Investment-2012-2014

IV. Recommendation-In Depth Reform

1993-1998 1999-2003 2004-2008 2010-2013

National reconciliation and Unification

Civil service management

Deepen reformNPAR

Institutionalization and Rule of LawNPAR

Paris Peace Agreement Law on common statute

of civil servants Sub-degree on

organization and functioning of ministries

Sub-degree on leave without pay

Sub-Decree on the General Principle of Civil Servants Management Procedures

Royal Decree on the General Principle of the Organization of the State Civil Service

17, 685 ghost civil servants

Supreme Councils of the state reform

CAR 5 years NPAR Around 10, 000 ghost

civil servant eliminated 21 categories of cadre

of civil servants Enumeration system MPG Average salary

increased from 19.5US$ to 28.1US$ ( 44.1% increased

NPAR 2004-2008 PMG HRP & HRD SOA Increased Salary Social Security Fund for

civil Servant

NPAR 2010-2013 HR Policy Making the

administration becomes more transparent, responsive and efficient

Improve values of service loyalty, motivation and professionalism

NPAR M&E framework and tools for oversight the implementation and enforcement of NPAR

Goal:

Administration becomes an effective provider

of public service

Objectives1. Making the Administration

transparent, responsive and efficient

2. Improving values of service, loyalty, motivation and

professionalism

Transparency

Responsiveness Efficiency

Culture of service

Loyalty

Professionalism Motivation

VISION: SERVE PEOPLE

BETTER

IV. Recommendation-High Quality of public Services

cambodia debt

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