call 2012: road owners adapting to climate...
TRANSCRIPT
Call 2012: Road owners adapting to climate change
Roads for today, adapted for tomorrow
Thomas Bles
Overview of adaptation measures and guideline on choosing a strategy
Guideline on performing a
socio economic impact analysis
Guideline on performing a
GIS-aided vulnerability assessment
Guideline on the use of data for the current and future climate
Cause Effect Consequence
Risk mitigation
Risk Evaluation
Guideline on performing a quickscan (preliminary climate change risk assessment)
Integrated with RIMAROCC
framework
ROADAPT Roads for today, adapted for tomorrow
Objectives Development of a preliminary/initial method for risk assessment Insight in spots on TEN-T network with high risk potential due to climate change Including identification of vulnerabilities and determination of probability and
consequences Including an action plan for adaptation
Challenges Method should be applicable in all European countries Number of possible threats is very high (40 threats identified) Road design is different Road surroundings and characteristics are different
Method should give proper results with ‘little’ effort Output should enable focussing of road owner/operator regarding cc threats To avoid ‘false negatives’
RIMAROCC at the basis, steps 1 to 5 Without extensive quantitative analyses But with a semi quantitative approach Workshops - around the table sessions Making use of experience and existing information But still explicitly risk based
More detailed with ongoing process Focusing only on threats that matter (have high risk profile)
Feedback loop
3. Risk
analysis
4. Risk
evaluation
5. Risk
mitigation
6. Imple-
mentationof plans__
2. Risk
identification
7. Moni-
toring, review
1. Context analysis
Communication
The RIMAROCC framework
Step 1 - Desktop 1 - prepare Quick scan Step 1.1 - Scope definition/ Establish context Step 1.2 - Identify risk sources and possible relevant threats Step 1.3 - Determine importance of road sections in road network (sensitivity) Step 1.4 - Prepare workshop 1
Step 2 - Workshop 1 - consequences Step 2.1 Agree with participants on Quick scan approach Step 2.2 Establish consequence criteria Step 2.3 Estimate the consequences of the threats Step 2.4 Evaluate the scoring of consequences
Step 3 - Desktop 2 - prepare workshop 2 Step 4 - Workshop 2 - probabilities, risk and locations Step 4.1 Agree on study method and share status of research Step 4.2 Score the probabilities of the threats Step 4.3 Evaluate the scoring of probabilities Step 4.4 Evaluate and prioritize the risks Step 4.5 Identify location of threats
Step 5 - Desktop 3- provide a risk overview Step 6 - Workshop 3 – action plan Step 6.1 Wrap up of previous results Step 6.2 Determine unacceptable risk; which threats require action? Step 6.3 Determine action plan Step 6.4 Prioritize actions
Only relevant threats
Only high risk threats
Unacceptable threats only
Determine consequences
and probabilities
Determine locations and
risk maps
Determine scope
Determine actions
Identification of risk sources and possible relevant threats Climate factors Select those threats that can happen, in the climate under study
Contextual site factors Select those threats that can happen, given the characteristics of surroundings
Infrastructure intrinsic factors Select those threats that can happen, given the road design
ROADAPT – Roads for today adapated for tomorrow 2013, April 22
Threat description vulnerability factors
Threat main Threat sub Infrastructure intrinsic factors = road factors that contribute to vulnerability
Contextual site factors = surrounding factors that contribute to vulnerability
Landslips and avalanches
External slides, ground subsidence or collapse, affecting the road (including eg. embankments aside the road)
Earthworks, pavements, drainage, foundation
Natural slopes, underground cavities, loss of vegetation
Slides of the road embankment
Earthworks, cut and fill slopes, retaining walls, embankment materials (clay/silt = higher vulnerability), slope angle (higher slope angle = higher vulnerability)
Hilly and mountaineous areas
Debris flow Drainage, embankment vegetation, erosion protection works
Mountainous areas, loss of vegetation
Rock fall Manmade cracks: road cut/blasting, rock fall protection works Mountainous areas
Snow avalanches Distribution of avalanche protection works
Mountainous areas, avalanche tracks
Using classes (instead of exact number) For both probability And consequence
Making use of ‘expert judgements’
Independent of specific locations Making use of road importance categories Traffic intensity Economic importance of area surrounding the road Redundancy of the road
Each road section has its own importance Two or three categories (eg. important, normal, unimportant)
Using consequence criteria Availability Safety Surroundings Direct technical costs Reputation Environment
Four classes per criterion (two examples) Safety
1. Negligible impact 2. Reaching boundaries of acceptability, material damage, slight injuries 3. Unacceptable, serious increase of accidents, heavy injuries, possible casualty 4. Catastrophic influence on user safety, serious damage, heavy injuries, casualties
Direct technical costs (costs for management during incident and repair) 1. Less than k€ 25 2. Between k€ 25 and k€ 100 3. Between k€ 100 and k€ 500 4. More than k€ 500
criteria I II III IV average normalized availability 10 5 2 10 6,75 0,32 safety 5 7 9 5 6,5 0,31 surroundings 1 3 0 5 2,25 0,11 direct technical costs 1 0 3 0 1 0,05 reputation 3 1 1 0 1,25 0,06 environment 1 5 6 1 3,25 0,15
Sum (check) 21 21 21 21 21 1
RR case study
Independent of location Using importance classes per road section
Stakeholders answer the following questions during the workshop “If this threat occurs on an important road, what are the consequences?” “And on an unimportant road?”
Gain uniformity by providing extra information
17 October 2013
Threat main Threat subDuration of the threat when it has occurred until resume of normal operation
Time between realization that threat might happen and threat occuring (warning time horizon)
Flooding from snow melt (overland flow after snow melt) days - weeks hours - days
Debris flow days - months seconds - minutes
Weakening of the road embankment and road foundation by standing water weeks hours - weeks(Unequal) settlements of roads by consolidation months monthsInstability / subsidence of roads by thawing of permafrost days - weeks days - months
seconds - months
days - monthshours - daysminutes - daysweek - months
daysdays - weekshours - daysdays - weeks
weeks - months
impact
monthsseconds - hours
minutes - daysflooding due to failure of flood defence system of rivers and canals, caused by snowmelt, rainfall in the catchment area, extreme wind
Overloading of hydraulic systems crossing the road week - months hours
Threat description
weeks - months
daysdaysdays - weeks
months
seconds - minutes
seconds - minutesseconds - minutesdays - months
Loss of road structure integrity
Impact on soil moisture levels (increase of watertable), affecting the structural integrity of
Uplift of tunnels or light weight construction materials by increasing watertable levels
Flooding of road surface (assuming no traffic is possible)
pluvial flooding (overland flow after precipitation, increase of groundwater levels, increase
Landslips and avalanches
External slides, ground subsidence or collapse, affecting the roadSlides of the road embankment
Rock fallSnow avalanches
Inundation of roads in coastal areas, combining the effects of sea level rise and storm surges
Erosion of road embankments and foundations
Erosion of road embankmentsBridge scour
Threat
Importance of road
consequences
probability availability safety
effect on surrounding network direct costs reputation environment
flooding due to failure of flood defence system
high importance medium low importance
pluvial flooding high importance medium low importance
flooding due to changes in precipitation pattern
high importance medium low importance
inundation of roads in coastal areas
high importance medium low importance
flooding from snow melt high importance medium low importance
overloading of hydraulic systems crossing the road
high importance medium low importance
etc. high importance medium low importance
Using four probability classes, eg. 4 Often more often than once every 3 years 3 Sometimes once every 3 to 10 years 2 Seldom once every 10 to 50 years 1 Very seldom rare than once every 50 years
Both now and in the future Recommended is to use a worst case scenario during the Quickscan
Gain uniformity by providing Infrastructure intrinsic factors Contextual site factors
Rotterdam – Ruhr case study
17 October 2013
1 flooding due to failure of flood defence system of rivers and canals2 pluvial flooding (overland flow after precipitation)3 Inundation of roads in coastal areas, combining sea level rise and storm surges 5 Overloading of hydraulic systems crossing the road6 Erosion of road embankments due to water beside the road during flooding7 Bridge scour
13 Impact on soil moisture levels, affecting the structural integrity of roads, bridges and tunnels14 Weakening of the road embankments by standing water15 (Unequal) settlements of roads by consolidation17 Uplift of tunnels or light weight construction materials by increasing water levels18 Cracking, rutting, embrittlement21 Cracking due to weakening of the road base by thaw22 Thermal expansion of pavements23 Thermal expansion of bridge expansion joints25 Reduced visibility due to fog26 Reduced visibility during snowfall, heavy rain including splash and spray27 Reduced vehicle control due to extreme wind28 Decrease in skid resistance on pavements from slight rain after a dry period29 Flooding of road surface due to low capacity of storm water runoff30 Aquaplaning in ruts due to precipitation on the road, splash and spray31 Decrease in skid resistance on pavements from migration of liquid bitumen32 Icing and snow35 Impact on road works: decreased time window for paving363738
Nr.
Damage to signs, lighting fixtures and supports due to wind, lightning and/or rainfall
Loss of road structure integrity
Threat
Flooding of road surface (assuming no traffic is possible)
Erosion of road embankments and foundations
Trees, windmills, noise barriers falling on the road due to wind
Susceptibility to wildfires that threaten the transportation infrastructure directly
Loss of pavement integrity
Loss of driving ability due to extreme weather events
Reduced ability for
major import. important major import. important major import. important 2,6 2,4 2,4 6,4 5,9 1,9 5,0 4,6
2,3 2,1 2,9 6,8 6,2 2,4 5,6 5,1 2,5 2,4 1,8 4,5 4,3 1,4 3,7 3,5
2,7 2,7 2,1 5,8 5,8 1,7 4,6 4,6 1,9 1,8 1,8 3,3 3,3 1,4 2,7 2,7
3,1 3,1 2,4 7,6 7,6 1,7 5,3 5,3 2,9 2,9 2,6 7,5 7,5 1,6 4,6 4,6
2,7 2,7 2,5 6,7 6,7 1,6 4,3 4,3 2,2 2,1 2,0 4,4 4,2 1,4 3,0 2,9
2,6 2,6 1,8 4,6 4,5 1,1 3,0 2,9 2,0 2,0 2,8 5,7 5,7 1,8 3,7 3,7
2,1 2,1 2,5 5,3 5,3 2,5 5,3 5,3 1,9 1,9 2,3 4,3 4,3 1,8 3,4 3,4 2,0 2,0 3,0 6,1 6,1 2,0 4,0 4,0 2,1 2,1 3,2 6,8 6,8 2,8 5,9 5,9 2,1 2,1 3,5 7,3 7,3 2,9 6,0 6,0 2,2 2,2 3,5 7,6 7,6 2,8 6,0 6,0 1,8 1,8 3,3 6,0 5,9 2,6 4,7 4,6 1,9 1,9 3,3 6,3 6,3 2,8 5,3 5,3
2,3 2,3 3,2 7,4 7,3 2,6 5,9 5,8 2,1 2,1 2,9 6,1 6,0 2,3 4,8 4,7
2,2 2,2 2,9 6,5 6,5 2,9 6,5 6,5 1,8 1,8 2,7 4,8 4,7 1,8 3,3 3,2
2,3 2,3 3,0 7,0 7,0 2,4 5,7 5,72,5 2,4 3,2 7,9 7,7 2,7 6,6 6,32,6 2,6 3,7 9,6 9,5 3,0 7,9 7,8
future probability
future risk
current riskcurrent probability
consequences
1
23
5
6
71314
15
17
1821
22 23 252627
28 29
3031
32
35
3637
38
1
2
3
4
1 2 3 4
cons
eque
nce
probability
Current risk of threats
1
23
5
6
713
14
15
17
1821
22 23 25 2627
2829
303132
35
3637
38
1
2
3
4
1 2 3 4co
nseq
uenc
e
probability
Future risk of threats
Determine the locations for the threats with a high risk profile Based on experiences of the past Existing information (eg. hazard maps, contextual site factors, intrinsic factors) Logical thinking
Portugal A24 case study
Determine which part of the road is influenced by the threat Determine maintenance frequency/ life span of this part of the road Determine when climate change becomes relevant to take into account Adaptation action versus regular maintenance Determination of adaptation strategy Research and/or monitoring to reduce uncertainty Do minimum Mitigating measures Improve current maintenance plans Strengthening preventive maintenance Develop contingency plans Retro-fit investments / strengthening infrastructure
Portugal A24 case study
Recommended: Generalists with experience in different fields Workshop I - consequences Transport expert (effects on surrounding network, availability and safety) Economic expert (effects on surrounding network, direct costs) Road engineer (safety, direct costs, environment) Cost expert (direct costs) Traffic control expert (safety, availability) Communication expert (reputation)
Workshop II – probabilities and locations Road asset owner/operator with local experience Climate change specialist Engineers for specific threats Hydraulic engineer Geotechnical engineer Geologist Pavement engineer Road engineer
Asset owners of existing hazard protection assets (eg. levee boards) Workshop III – action plan Combination of relevant stakeholders from workshop I and II
Feedback loop
3. Risk
analysis
4. Risk
evaluation
5. Risk
mitigation
6. Imple-
mentationof plans__
2. Risk
identification
7. Moni-
toring, review
1. Context analysis
Communication
Action plan implemented in organization Detailed analyses, based on new insights, eg. Only ‘top risks’ Risk assessment of a specific road stretch/section/network Vulnerability assessment for a specific threat Idem socio economic impact assessment
17 October 2013
Quick Scan
Overview of adaptation measures and guideline on choosing a strategy
Guideline on performing a
socio economic impact analysis
Guideline on performing a
GIS-aided vulnerability assessment
Guideline on the use of data for the current and future climate
Cause Effect Consequence
Risk mitigation
Risk Evaluation
Guideline on performing a quickscan (preliminary climate change risk assessment)
Integrated with RIMAROCC
framework
ROADAPT Roads for today, adapted for tomorrow
Excellent method to underpin importance of climate change Explicitly risk based Translation of threats to actual consequences
Output can be used both at practical and high level Workshops with stakeholders Creates awareness Team building Mutual understanding for steps to be taken in the future
Thank you for your attention