California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum

Model Linkage to a Flood Early Warning System for Water Quality and Morphology

Dr. Edwin WellesDr. Joost Icke

Dr. Edwin Elias

February 23, 2010

Introduction to Deltares

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Deltares

• Deltares – Dutch water think tank• Established in 1920’s• Non-profit foundation• 900 staff• Topics…

– surface water, groundwater & geotechnics– design, policy & management / operation– studies, software & hydraulic research

• Domestic (Dutch) and overseas projects

• Deltares USA• US non-profit• Mission – facilitate the exchange of water knowledge between the Netherlands and the US

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....And lots of software

San Francisco Bay ModelTransition to Real-Time Operations

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Delft3D Model of SF Bay

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An Oil Spill Investigation

The Problem• MV Cosco Busan hits the

Golden Gate at 8:30 a.m. on November 7, 2007

• 53,500 gals Bunker fuel spill into the Bay

10ANIMATION

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Particle Tracking Example

ANIMATION

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Fly-over maps used for validation

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Delft 3-D Capabilities

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Real Time Integration

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NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System

National Weather Service Northeast River Forecast Center 15

Courtesy of Rob Shedd, DOH NERFC

FCFEWS

FEWS Models

NWS Models

HEC Models

Other Models

CHPSModels from

Federal, State, Local

and university

researchers

Estuary Models

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Delft FEWS User Community

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Delft FEWSOpen Shell Forecasting System

Model Type Supplier/Owner Country ISIS Hydrodynamics HR/Halcrow UK PDM Rainfall-Runoff CEH UK TCM Rainfall-Runoff CEH UK KW Routing (kinematic wave) CEH UK PACK Snow Melt CEH UK ARMA Error Correction CEH UK PRTF Event Based RR PlanB UK TRITON Surge propagation/Overtopping PlanB UK STF Transfer functions EA UK DODO Routing (layered Muskingum) EA UK MCRM Rainfall-Runoff EA UK Modflow96/VKD 3D groundwater Deltares/Adam Taylor Netherlands/UK Mike11 Hydrodynamics DHI Denmark NAM Rainfall-Runoff DHI Denmark LISFLOOD Distributed Rainfall-Runoff JRC Italy TOPKAPI Rainfall-Runoff Univ. of Bologna Italy HBV Rainfall-Runoff (inc snowmelt) SHMI Sweden Vflo Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Vieux & Assiciates USA SWMM Urban Rainfall-Runoff USGS USA HEC-RAS Hydrodynamics USACE USA Snow17 Snow Melt NWS USA SACSM Rainfall-Runoff NWS USA Unit-H Unit-Hydrograph NWS USA PRMS Rainfall-Runoff Univ. of Karlsruhre Germany SynHP Hydrodynamics BfG Germany SOBEK Hydrodynamics, Water Quality, RR Deltares Netherlands SOBEK-2d Linked 1d/2d inundation modelling Deltares Netherlands Sacramento Rainfall-Runoff Deltares Netherlands RIBASIM Water distribution + Reservoir Deltares Netherlands REW Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Deltares Netherlands DELFT3D 2/3D Hydrodynamics/ Water quality Deltares Netherlands TWAM 2D Hydrodynamics PlanB UK

FEWS is an Open Modeling Framework

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Uncertainty: Ensemble Forecasting

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Uncertainty: Performance Indicators

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Uncertainty: Forecaster Intervention

Snow Cover/Melt Data

ReservoirReleases

Forecasts

Hydro Models

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New Models

water levels

Excess Temperature

• From North Sea to Basel• 3D in part of Hollandsch Diep

estuary• 2D till Hagestein and Dreumel• 1D-2D-3D coupling under FEWS!

Can also model salinity with this setup

Water Quality and Water Temperature Modeling

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