california may be due -- lessons from past notable earthquakes

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CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS (SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY) (SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)

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Earthqakes are dynamic laboratories for learning and catalysts for building capacity for disaster-intelligent & disaster-resilient communites. Presentation courtesy of Dr Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction

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Page 1: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS (SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)(SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS

(SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)(SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)

Page 2: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

LESSONS FROM PAST LESSONS FROM PAST NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESNOTABLE EARTHQUAKES

Page 3: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

PAST NOTABLE PAST NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

LOMA PRIETA, CALIFORNIALOMA PRIETA, CALIFORNIA

OCTOBER 17, 1989OCTOBER 17, 1989

Page 4: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

EARTHQAKES ARE EARTHQAKES ARE DYNAMIC DYNAMIC LABORATORIESLABORATORIES FOR FOR

LEARNING AND CATALYSTS LEARNING AND CATALYSTS FOR FOR BUILDING CAPACITY BUILDING CAPACITY

FOR FOR DISASTER-INTELLIGENT DISASTER-INTELLIGENT & DISASTER-RESILIENT & DISASTER-RESILIENT

COMMUNITESCOMMUNITES

Page 5: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

LOCATIONLOCATION

The epicenter was located near The epicenter was located near Loma Prieta peak in the Loma Prieta peak in the Santa Santa Cruz MountainsCruz Mountains, approximately , approximately 14 km (9 mi) northeast of Santa 14 km (9 mi) northeast of Santa Cruz and Cruz and 96 km (60 mi) south-96 km (60 mi) south-southeast of San Franciscosoutheast of San Francisco

Page 6: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

OCCURRENCEOCCURRENCE

Page 7: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS (SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)(SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS CALIFORNIA’S FAULTS

(SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)(SOURCE: CA. GEOL. SURVEY)

Page 8: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

The Loma Prieta Earthquake was The Loma Prieta Earthquake was Forecast Forecast (USGS, 1988)(USGS, 1988)

The Loma Prieta Earthquake was The Loma Prieta Earthquake was Forecast Forecast (USGS, 1988)(USGS, 1988)

Page 9: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

Schematic Diagram of the Loma Schematic Diagram of the Loma Prieta Earthquake MechanismPrieta Earthquake Mechanism

Schematic Diagram of the Loma Schematic Diagram of the Loma Prieta Earthquake MechanismPrieta Earthquake Mechanism

NORTHNORTHNORTHNORTHWESTWESTWESTWEST

Page 10: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Rupture Rupture

Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Schematic Diagram of the Earthquake Rupture Rupture

NORTHNORTHNORTHNORTHWESTWESTWESTWEST

Page 11: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

Mw 6.9; Ms 7.1Mw 6.9; Ms 7.1

Depth: 18 km (11 miles)Depth: 18 km (11 miles)

5:04 pm local time5:04 pm local time

Soil amplification Soil amplification effects in effects in San Francisco Bay regionSan Francisco Bay region

Page 12: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

SAN FRANCISCO BAY SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION REGION (EPICENTER: TOP LEFT)(EPICENTER: TOP LEFT)

Page 13: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

SOIL AMPLIFICATION MAP: SAN SOIL AMPLIFICATION MAP: SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGIONFRANCISCO BAY REGION

Page 14: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES

LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

Page 15: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

IMPACTS IMPACTS

BUILDINGSBUILDINGS

Page 16: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

SAN FRANCISCO BAY SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGIONREGION

Buildings and infrastructure of Buildings and infrastructure of all types and agesall types and ages, constructed , constructed in accordance with various in accordance with various codes/standards, codes/standards, FAILED in FAILED in the the San Francisco Bay Region.San Francisco Bay Region.

Page 17: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

PREPAREDNESS PREPAREDNESS PLANNING FOR PLANNING FOR THE THE INEVITABLE INEVITABLE STRONG GROUND STRONG GROUND MOTION MOTION IS IS ESSENTIAL FOR ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.RESILIENCE.

Page 18: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

PROTECTION OF PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCERESILIENCE..

Page 19: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

PROBABILISTIC MAPS PROBABILISTIC MAPS OF OF PEAK PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION (PGA) GROUND ACCELERATION (PGA) AND AND SPECTRAL ACCELERATION SPECTRAL ACCELERATION (SA) (SA) ARE BASIC TOOLS USED IN ARE BASIC TOOLS USED IN

BUILDING BUILDING CODESCODES AND AND INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE STANDARDSSTANDARDS

Page 20: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

GROUND SHAKING GROUND SHAKING (PEAK (PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION)GROUND ACCELERATION)

Page 21: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

GROUND SHAKING WESTERN GROUND SHAKING WESTERN USAUSA

Page 22: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

PGA: SAN FRANCISCO BAY PGA: SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGIONREGION

Page 23: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

SA 0.3 S: SAN FRANCISCO SA 0.3 S: SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION (BAY REGION (SHORT BLDGS.)SHORT BLDGS.)

Page 24: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

SA 1.0 S: SAN FRANCISCO SA 1.0 S: SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION BAY REGION ((TALL BLDGS,)TALL BLDGS,)

Page 25: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

LOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKELOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKELOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKELOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKE 1,300 BUILDINGS 1,300 BUILDINGS

DESTROYEDDESTROYED 20,000 BUILDINGS 20,000 BUILDINGS

DAMAGEDDAMAGED 3,500 BUSINESSES3,500 BUSINESSES

DAMAGEDDAMAGED TRANSPORTATION TRANSPORTATION

LOSSES ALONE: LOSSES ALONE: $1.8 $1.8 BILLION BILLION

Page 26: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED MASONRY BUILDINGSMASONRY BUILDINGS

VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED MASONRY BUILDINGSMASONRY BUILDINGS

Page 27: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED MASONRY BUILDINGSMASONRY BUILDINGS

VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED VULNERABLE UNREINFORCED MASONRY BUILDINGSMASONRY BUILDINGS

Page 28: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

VULNERABLE SOFT-STORY VULNERABLE SOFT-STORY BUILDINGS: MARINA DISTRICTBUILDINGS: MARINA DISTRICT

VULNERABLE SOFT-STORY VULNERABLE SOFT-STORY BUILDINGS: MARINA DISTRICTBUILDINGS: MARINA DISTRICT

Page 29: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

PREPAREDNESS PREPAREDNESS PLANNING FOR PLANNING FOR THE THE INEVITABLE INEVITABLE GROUND FAILURE GROUND FAILURE IS ESSENTIAL IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCERESILIENCE..

Page 30: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

GROUND FAILURE, GROUND FAILURE, NOTNOT SURFACE FAULT RUPTURESURFACE FAULT RUPTURE

Page 31: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

LATERAL SPREADING: SAN LATERAL SPREADING: SAN FRANCISCO WHARF AREAFRANCISCO WHARF AREA

LATERAL SPREADING: SAN LATERAL SPREADING: SAN FRANCISCO WHARF AREAFRANCISCO WHARF AREA

Page 32: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

LIQUEFACTION: MARINA LIQUEFACTION: MARINA DISTRICTDISTRICT

LIQUEFACTION: MARINA LIQUEFACTION: MARINA DISTRICTDISTRICT

Page 33: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

AS IN 1906, FIRE BEGAN IN THE AS IN 1906, FIRE BEGAN IN THE MARINA DISTRICTMARINA DISTRICT

AS IN 1906, FIRE BEGAN IN THE AS IN 1906, FIRE BEGAN IN THE MARINA DISTRICTMARINA DISTRICT

Page 34: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

CYPRESS FREEWAY: A CYPRESS FREEWAY: A PROTECTION NIGHTMARE PROTECTION NIGHTMARE

CYPRESS FREEWAY: A CYPRESS FREEWAY: A PROTECTION NIGHTMARE PROTECTION NIGHTMARE

Page 35: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

FAILURE OF A SPAN ON THE OAKLAND BAY FAILURE OF A SPAN ON THE OAKLAND BAY BRIDGE: A COMMUTER’S NIGHTMAREBRIDGE: A COMMUTER’S NIGHTMARE

FAILURE OF A SPAN ON THE OAKLAND BAY FAILURE OF A SPAN ON THE OAKLAND BAY BRIDGE: A COMMUTER’S NIGHTMAREBRIDGE: A COMMUTER’S NIGHTMARE

Page 36: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

CAPACITY FOR CAPACITY FOR EMERGENCY EMERGENCY RESPONSE RESPONSE IS IS ESSENTIAL FOR ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY COMMUNITY RESILIENCERESILIENCE..

Page 37: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

POWER OUTAGES BEGAN AT POWER OUTAGES BEGAN AT 5:04 PM IN THE REGION5:04 PM IN THE REGION

POWER OUTAGES BEGAN AT POWER OUTAGES BEGAN AT 5:04 PM IN THE REGION5:04 PM IN THE REGION

Page 38: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

CYPRESS FREEWAY COLLAPSE: AN CYPRESS FREEWAY COLLAPSE: AN EMERGENCY RESPONSE NIGHTMARE EMERGENCY RESPONSE NIGHTMARE CYPRESS FREEWAY COLLAPSE: AN CYPRESS FREEWAY COLLAPSE: AN

EMERGENCY RESPONSE NIGHTMARE EMERGENCY RESPONSE NIGHTMARE

Page 39: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

FORTY-ONE VICTIMS AT THE FORTY-ONE VICTIMS AT THE CYPRESS FREEWAYCYPRESS FREEWAY

FORTY-ONE VICTIMS AT THE FORTY-ONE VICTIMS AT THE CYPRESS FREEWAYCYPRESS FREEWAY

Page 40: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

FIRE IN MARINA DISTRICT 100 FIRE IN MARINA DISTRICT 100 KM FROM EPICENTERKM FROM EPICENTER

FIRE IN MARINA DISTRICT 100 FIRE IN MARINA DISTRICT 100 KM FROM EPICENTERKM FROM EPICENTER

Page 41: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

CAPACITY FOR CAPACITY FOR RECOVERY AND RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTIONRECONSTRUCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY COMMUNITY RESILIENCERESILIENCE..

Page 42: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

RESTORATION OF WIDESPREAD RESTORATION OF WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES TOOK TIMEPOWER OUTAGES TOOK TIME

RESTORATION OF WIDESPREAD RESTORATION OF WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES TOOK TIMEPOWER OUTAGES TOOK TIME

Page 43: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION ON CYPRESS FREEWAY TOOK TIME ON CYPRESS FREEWAY TOOK TIME

RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION ON CYPRESS FREEWAY TOOK TIME ON CYPRESS FREEWAY TOOK TIME

Page 44: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION ON RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION ON OAKLAND BAY BRIDGE TOOK TIMEOAKLAND BAY BRIDGE TOOK TIME

RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION ON RESTORATION OF TRANSPORTATION ON OAKLAND BAY BRIDGE TOOK TIMEOAKLAND BAY BRIDGE TOOK TIME

Page 45: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE WAS A EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE WAS A TOOL FOR RECOVERYTOOL FOR RECOVERY

EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE WAS A EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE WAS A TOOL FOR RECOVERYTOOL FOR RECOVERY

EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE INSURANCE SPREADS THE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY BY RECOVERY BY FACILITATING THE FACILITATING THE “RESTORATION TO “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”NORMAL”

EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE INSURANCE SPREADS THE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY BY RECOVERY BY FACILITATING THE FACILITATING THE “RESTORATION TO “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”NORMAL”

Page 46: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

PLANNING FOR THE FUTUREPLANNING FOR THE FUTURE

A NEW GENERATION OF A NEW GENERATION OF POLICIES AND POLICIES AND PROFESSIONAL PRACTICES PROFESSIONAL PRACTICES FOR FOR SITING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION SITING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION IN CALIFORNIA AND OTHER IN CALIFORNIA AND OTHER EARTHQUAKE PRONE REGIONS OF EARTHQUAKE PRONE REGIONS OF THE USA. THE USA.

Page 47: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT: SAN FRANCISCO AIRPORT: BASE ISOLATIONBASE ISOLATION

Page 48: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

SAN FRANCISCO CITY HALL: SAN FRANCISCO CITY HALL: BASE ISOLATIONBASE ISOLATION

Page 49: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

SUMMARY OF IMPACTSSUMMARY OF IMPACTS

62 DEATHS (Mostly at Cypress Freeway) 62 DEATHS (Mostly at Cypress Freeway) 3,757 INJURIES3,757 INJURIES 8,000 HOMELESS8,000 HOMELESS $5.6 BILLION PROPERTY DAMAGE WITH $5.6 BILLION PROPERTY DAMAGE WITH

THE FIRST $1.8 BILLION EARTHQUAKE THE FIRST $1.8 BILLION EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE INDEMNIFICATIONINSURANCE INDEMNIFICATION

MAJOR FLAWS IN MAJOR FLAWS IN PROTECTION OF PROTECTION OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE

Page 50: California may be due -- Lessons From Past Notable Earthquakes

PRIMARY SOURCES OF PRIMARY SOURCES OF INFORMATION ON THE LOMA INFORMATION ON THE LOMA

PRIETA EARTHQUAKE ARE: PRIETA EARTHQUAKE ARE: 1) 1) The US Geological Survey, 2) The US Geological Survey, 2) The California Geological Survey, The California Geological Survey,

and 3) the Earthquake Engineering and 3) the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute Research Institute