california energy security project: what climate science can do for the energy sector tim p. barnett...
TRANSCRIPT
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California Energy Security Project:
What climate science can do for the energy sector
Tim P. BarnettDavid W. Pierce
Scripps Institution of OceanographyLa Jolla, CA
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Purpose
Determine the economic value of climate forecasts to the energy sector.
Energy sector already uses weather forecasts, but longer term climate information is not often used.
There is a great opportunity here
• One-year project, funded by NOAA.
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Stumbling blocks
• Climate forecasts give probabilities, not certainties– Working with the industry to show how this
information can be used
• Forecasts can be hard to understand– Our job is to provide what is needed, in a useful form
• Regulatory issues– Industry actions have to be doable in the framework
established by the Public Utility Commission
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Project Overview
Scripps Inst. OceanographyUniversity of Washington
Georgia Inst. Tech
California Energy CommissionCalifornia ISO
San Diego Gas & Elec.SoCal GasPacifiCorp
SAIC
Academia
StatePartners
IndustrialPartners
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Example 1. North Pacific Oscillation
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Why the NPO matters
High pressure associated with the NPO…
generates winds from the north west…
…which bring cold, arctic air into the western U.S. during winter
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North Pacific Oscillation (cont'd)
• Climate information: likelihood of a warm or cold winter
• Energy decision: purchase gas on long-term contracts, or spot market
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2. Streamflow predictions & hydropower
• Dams subject to many rules– Must have capacity to prevent floods; must not release so much
can't refill; etc.
• Dam releases in Pacific Northwest planned only after snowpack measured in mid December
• Streamflow forecasts would let power be generated safely earlier in the year
• Worth $40M to $153M per year.
Hamlet, Huppert, Lettenmeier 2002,J. Water Resources Planning and Management
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Hydropower (cont'd)
• Climate information: seasonal precipitation outlook
• Energy decision: when to release water for hydropower generation
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3. California "Delta Breeze"
• An important source of forecast load error (CalISO)
• Big events can change load by 500 MW (>1% of total)
• Direct cost of this power: $250K/breeze day (~40 days/year: ~$10M/year)
• Indirect costs: pushing stressed system past capacity when forecast is missed!
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NO delta Breeze
Sep 25, 2002: No delta breeze; winds carrying hot air down CaliforniaCentral valley. Power consumption high.
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Delta Breeze
Sep 26, 2002: Delta breeze starts up; power consumption drops >500 MW compared to the day before!
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Delta Breeze (cont'd)
• Climate information: chance of a delta breeze in two days
• Energy decision: whether or not to fire up peaking plants (take a day to get going)
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Where we could go from here…
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Climate variations…
El Nino North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)
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…affect energy…
supply demand
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…and therefore decisions.
Environment vs. Hydropower Urban vs. Agriculture
Long term contractsvs.
Spot market
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Water-Energy interaction
ClimateForecast
Water SupplyForecast
Energy SupplyForecast
Public and PrivateStakeholders
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An Energy-Water Opportunity
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An Energy-Water Opportunity
• Water and power are regional issues -- need a broad, integrated look at the issue
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An Energy-Water Opportunity
• Water and power are regional issues -- need a broad, integrated look at the issue
• Water and energy systems already stressed to their limits -- climate variations can push things over the edge
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An Energy-Water Opportunity
• Water and power are regional issues -- need a broad, integrated look at the issue
• Water and energy systems already stressed to their limits -- climate variations can push things over the edge
• The pieces to do this problem are already there -- but no one has brought them all together yet
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An Energy-Water Opportunity
• Water and power are regional issues -- need a broad, integrated look at the issue
• Water and energy systems already stressed to their limits -- climate variations can push things over the edge
• The pieces to do this problem are already there -- but no one has brought them all together yet
• A project whose time has come
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