california energy commission energy technology futures: thinking about near-term and longer-term...

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

Energy Technology Futures:Thinking About Near-Term and

Longer-Term Needs

Environmental Innovations Summit 2001Washington, D.C.

September 11, 2001

Terry Surles, Director

Technology Systems Division

California Energy Commission


California Must be Prepared to Face the Same Issues as Others Must

Economics Resource Competition New technology market

penetration

Environment Climate change Life cycle analysis

Security Oil, Nuclear materials

Energy Costs Fundamentally Affect our Overall Economy

Niagara Mohawk Dunkirk steam station on Lake Erie, New York. Coal-fired but going to undergo retrofit for cofiring biomass.


A

g

l]

l

l’

l’


Coal16%

Large Hydro19%

Nuclear17%

Natural Gas36%

Eligible Renewable

12%

2000 Net Power System

Eligible Renewables

Biomass & Waste- 2.0

Geothermal - 4.6

Small Hydro - 3.0

Solar - 0.4

Wind - 2.0


We Must be Prepared to Address Future Market Scenarios

Regulated

De-regulated

De-centralizedCentralized

Status Quo • New energy systems

• Same players

Supermarket of Choices

• Same energy systems

• New players


Any R&D Program Must Consider

Near-term realities Political Attributes: affordable, reliable, safe

Longer-term vision Resource competition Future regulatory/environmental issues

For both Limited budget Uncertainties associated with life-cycle costs and

competing technologies and lifestyles


Vision Statement

The future electrical system of California will provide a clean, abundant and affordable supply

tailored to the needs of “smart”, efficient customers and will be the best in the nation.

Tailored, clean, abundant, affordable supply

Smart, efficient customers


California has Established a $62M/yr Public Interest Energy Research

Program (PIER)

California’s Energy Future

Economy:Affordable Solutions

Quality:Reliable and

AvailableEnvironment:Protect and

Enhance


PIER is Developing a Portfolio Approach for Funding Appropriate

R&D

PIER

Temporal-3 year-5 year-Next crisis

TechnologyMix Risk

- financial- environmental- health


Efficient Funding and Management: Enhancing Partnerships and Collaborations

US DOE and their laboratories - opportunities for co-funding

California Agencies - Cal/EPA, Trade & Commerce, CalTrans

Other states and federal agencies - NYSERDA, ASERTTI, DoD

Utilities - market transformations, linkage to public goods programs, EPRI,GTI

Private Sector - associations, individual companies Universities - R&D, technical support


U.S. 1997 Carbon Emissions - 1500 Tcf


Carbon Management: An Approach for Integrated Energy Systems R&D

Carbon Management

Mechanism for addressing policy initiatives (S. 1008)

Means to go fromnear term “no regrets” to longer-term sustainable development

Approach for R&D collaboration


Carbon Management: An Approach for Integrated Energy Systems R&D

<<

Carbon Management

Efficiency Btu/GDP

Decarbonization CO2

BtuCO2 atm

CO2 produced<

Sequestration


Demand Side Management:R&D to Support

Develop incentives for negawatts, conservation Expand Title 24 for commercial buildings Integration of building design with PV Real time pricing systems to address peak loads Incentives for load shifting technologies


Per-capita electricity consumption, 1960–2000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Rest of U.S.

California

(DOE and CEC data, compiled 1960–89 by Worldwatch Institute, 1990–2000 by Rocky Mountain Institute; 2000 data are preliminary; 1991–2000 population data not yet renormalized to 2000 Census findings)

California: policy really does workM

Wh

per

pers

on-y

ear


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

43,509 MW

Contribution to ISO Peak DemandAugust 16, 2001 (MW)

Commercial AC

Commercial Lighting

Residential AC

Other


End-Use Energy Efficiency: Low Tech can be Effective, Coupled to New Tech

Cool roofs Ducts Lighting advances Low-energy cooling Plug Loads


Properties of Cool Roofing Materials

Reflectivity, Emissivity & Roof Temperature

black asphalt aluminum coating white coating

low albedo high albedo very high albedo

high emissivity low emissivity high emissivity

hottest

hot cool

160 F 100 F


Cool Roofing Energy Savings Vacaville, CA Home Base Demonstration

Initial solar reflectivity of 31%, after coating 74% Initial max temperature 170°F, after coating 120°F Used 10% less cooling energy Always 85°F or less in store Optimal comfort (below 79°F and 60% relative humidity) for 10

more shopping hours a week


Lighting Advances: The Berkeley Lamp

Increased lighting quality Energy savings- 30-50% Low glare - computer Unique control features Up or down lighting Lots of light 450 W worth of

incandescent and halogen lighting for 150 W


‘NightBreeze’ Low Energy Residential Cooling

• Automatically brings fresh air into the house, improving air quality, without having to open windows at night

• Includes an efficient, variable airflow fan which saves money and energy while providing quiet comfort

• Helps reduce peak demand and eliminates the need for air conditioning in some California climates


Demand Side Management Strategies are Important in Industry, Agriculture

Advanced pumps for irrigation Fume hoods for industry Sensors and monitors

soil moisture sensors real-time production monitoring

Collateral benefits and efficient use of other resources are an important attribute


High Performance Fume Hood• reduces airflow and energy requirements by 30-50%

• flow reduction from each hood cuts energy costs by $1000/yr

• maintains or enhances worker safety

• ASHRAE standard test achieved containment with 70% flow reduction

• with 30,000 hoods in state, the new Hood could save about 360 million kWh/yr, totaling nearly $30 million


Spray Enhancement of Dry Cooling Systems

Dry Cooling provides a reduction of up to 95% of a power plant’s water demand

Spray Enhancement solves the problem of using dry cooling on hot, high demand days

The system at the 240 MW Crockett cogeneration plant in Crockett assisted this facility in generating an additional 7 - 15 MW of electricity during the hottest periods


Demand Side Management can be Enhanced with Additional Technical

Approaches

Transmission systems new materials and technology real-time measurement of carrying capacity

Standards and codes for interconnection needs Better understanding of interdependency

relationships Instrumentation, sensors for Demand Response:

Communications and Control


Real Time Transmission Line Monitoring/Rating

• tension monitoring increases transmission capabilities by 15-30%

• highly accurate - measures line sagging to within 1-3 inches

• increased safety - provides the actual real time rating and provides alarms of impending clearance violations

• system 1-3 were built for utilities in Virginia, Colorado and Finland

• 200th system was sold on 8/4/00. The systems are in use on five continents by 70 utilities.


Production

Develop and deploy distributed generation technologies

Launch new paradigm shifting programs stop treating energy as a “tax”

Look to integrated systems in the future merge transportation/electricity: biomass,

conversion Support and develop storage and conversion

technologies as part of systems approach


Decarbonization Focuses on Near-Term Development of Renewables and More

Efficient Use of Fossil Fuels

Renewable resources assessment better understanding of availability and location

Wind power firm capacity forecasting turbine for sub-optimal wind regime

Building integrated photovoltaics Advanced emissions reduction for gas turbines Increased efficiency of central station


Building Integrated Photovoltaics


PowerLight

• PowerLight achieved a 57% reduction in manufacturing costs of the PowerGuard and opened an 18,000 ft2 automated tile manufacturing facility in Berkeley

•PowerLight is the U.S. leader in BIPV with PowerGuard

• 2/29/00 - PowerLight installed the largest roof-integrated, thin-film solar electric system in North America a 10,000 ft2 installation at the Port of Cape Charles, Virginia

• The PowerGuard system are joined by a tongue-and-groove design that requires no roof penetration or adhesive, thus eliminating leakage and related maintenance


PowerLight Corporation Building-Integrated PV Roof System


Wind Energy


The Wind Turbine Company

Design, develop and demonstrate a utility-scale wind turbine

Horizontal axis, two-blade, downwind design

Prototype developed for PIER and tested at NREL rated at 250 kW

Commercial prototype demonstration sited at the Fairmont Reservoir in LADWP territory for a 500 kW - scaled up to 750 kW - wind turbine demonstration to begin in October 2001


Possible Solutions to Mitigate the Issues: Technologies

Distributed generation - fuel cells, microturbine, ARICE

Utilization of waste heat Improved controls, instrumentation, information

management Storage technologies

upfront installation address intermittent energy issues power quality and reliability


MCFC and PEM Fuel Cell Stack


Alzeta Gas Turbine Semi-Radiant Burner (GTSB)

• Alzeta’s GTSB combustors successfully demonstrated simultaneous readings below 2 ppm emissions of NOx, CO and unburned hydrocarbon, several times lower than current state-of-the-art gas turbines.

• PIER is helping develop low- or no- emission electric production methods, including gas turbines for use in DG

• Alzeta has begun royalty repayment to the PIER Program based on direct sales and licensing of the product


Energy Storage Technology

Trinity Flywheel of Livermore, CA developed this 2kW/hr prototype Flywheel energy storage for field demonstration


There are Many Energy Scenarios: We Need to Plan for These

Natural gas availability/price volatility Aggressive approach to CO2 controls Central stations important, although

distributed generation use increases: unanticipated impacts to grid


Kalina Cycle Canoga Park Facility

• Kalina Cycle uses working fluid of 70% ammonia and 30% water

• Ammonia has much lower boiling point than water and spins the steam turbine at lower temperatures

• 3.2 MW plant at Canoga Park, CA

• GE has purchased exclusive license to use Kalina in their combined-cycle gas turbine systems worldwide

• $505,000 royalties received from Exergy, Inc.


Will California Lead Change?

OLD Electricity by nuclear,

gas, coal-by-wire, hydroelectric

No choice to consumers - tax mentality

Laissez-faire

NEW Base load central

stations with reliance on distributed generation - “Community systems”

Choice of supplier and technology

Government catalyzes true paradigm shift


New Generation Approved and Under Construction (6557 MW)

520 450

1060

500320880

1048

559

500 720

Blythe

Huntington Beach

Moss Landing

Elk Hills

Sunrise

Delta

La Paloma

Pittsburg- Los Medanos

Sutter

High DesertMW per Plant

June 2001


Some Thoughts on Demand-Side Management and End-Use Energy

Efficiency

Large scale development of “smart” users Viability of low tech approach with technological

advances, e.g. new paints Increased re-use of all materials - with positive

energy balances, re. No energy penalties Transmission improvements

strategic placement of DG materials and sensors


Decarbonization will Focus on Improving the Economics of New Systems

Service stations (reformers) for transportation systems and electricity generation

Biomass facilities for production of industrial products and electricity

Further increase in efficiency and reduction in cost for photovoltaics

Large-scale use of accurately forecasted, dispatchable wind power

Ocean power Nuclear power


Solid Oxide Fuel Cell/Turbine Hybrid


Hoopa Valley Indian Tribe - PIER Small Modular Biopower (SMB) Demonstration

• SMB BioMax-15 System commissioned 8/01helps promote sustainable forestry

• As pictured, forest clearing residue is a source of fuel as is urban wood waste (twigs, leaves, bark and other trimmings)

• Fully-automated control system. Nominal rating is 12.5 kW but has run continuously at 15 kW for six hours

• NOx levels 0-2 ppm at full power, equivalent to .05 lb. NOx/MW-hr


EnergeTech, AustraliaParabolic-Focusing Pneumatic Pressure

Ocean Wave Energy Power Plant


Carbon Sequestration Can Play a Future Role

Indirect sequestration terrestrial enhanced ocean fertilization

Direct Sequestration capture, separation, transport geological - EDR, EGR, CBM, brines ocean - direct injection


Schematic diagram of a ZEST Electric Power Plant


Carbon Management and Energy R&D: Mechanism to Catalyze California Discussions,

on Climate Change, Energy, Environmental and Economic Issues

Global

- Macro Impacts

- Resource Competition

Nation

- Security

- Environment

- Economy

State

-Affordability

- Environment

- Reliability

Local

- End use

- NIMBY


PIER is Focused on Supporting California’s World-Class Economy

California context: we can “frame the debate” on a national level

Funding where “we make a difference” in reinventing the business

Market Transformation working with the private sector

Develop a sustainable organization that will provide a stream of benefits to California


Conclusion: R&D is on Track to Address Future Energy Problems

Maintaining choices of energy resources address near-term issues prepare for the next crisis

Instrumentation and software advances will provide for a new generation of demand-side technologies

Advances in chemistry and materials will allow for advances in energy technologies

We must move toward a sustainable future

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