ca en la post crisis. world bank
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
1/30
A C A C C:C:
11
, E , E 191920 201020 2010
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
2/30
AA
AC
C
F
2
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
3/30
AC AC
3
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
4/30
E
B, C,
100
105
World Industrial ProductionIndex Apr-08 = 100
Developed Countries
4: ECD , , K, C E. : CB ( B E A).
, , ,
52%
GD
80
85
90
Jan-0
6
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-0
6
Jan-0
7
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-0
7
Jan-0
8
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-0
8
Jan-0
9
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-0
9
Jan-1
0
Apr-10
Emerging Economies
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
5/30
AC AC
100
110
120
Industrial Production in Emerging RegionsIndex Apr/2008 = 100
EAP
LAC
5: CB ( B E A).
60
70
80
90
Jan-0
6
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-0
6
Jan-0
7
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-0
7
Jan-0
8
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-0
8
Jan-0
9
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-0
9
Jan-1
0
Apr-10
ECA
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
6/30
E AC 2010E AC 20102011 2011
, C A, C A
8%
10%
12%
Real GDP Growth Forecasts for 2010-2011Annual GDP Real Growth Rate, in %
2010 2011
6: E E , D, , K, , . : CF (J 2010), B.
0%
2%
4%
6%
WesternEurope
Japan EasternEurope
US LatinAmerica
EastAsianTigers
China
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
7/30
Mexico 1995
Argentina 1980 Argentina 1995
Brazil 1985 Brazil 1995
Chile 1980 Colombia 1998
Banking Crises in LAC Countries
1980-1985 1995-2000 2008-2009
AC AC
,
Ecuador 1980 Honduras 1999
Mexico 1981 Jamaica 1996
Peru 1983 Nicaragua 2000
Uruguay 1981 Paraguay 1995
Peru 1999
7 . : L (2008) (2008)
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
8/30
AC AC
8
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
9/30
A IB CA 2009, A IB CA 2009,
AC AC
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Recent Real GDP Growth and Forecasts for 2009-2011Annual GDP Real Growth Rate, Weighted Averages
2009 2010 2011
9: C D . : E (A10) C F (A10): E (A10) C F (J10)
-8%
Caricom (ex.Dom. Rep.)
C. Am. (inc.Dom. Rep.)
Mexico South America LAC
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Ant.&Barb.
Mexico
St.Kts.
&Nv.
Barbados
St.Lucia
Bahamas
Tri.&
Tob.
ElSalvador
Venezuela
Jamaica
St.Vc.&Grs.
Honduras
LAC
Paraguay
Nicaragua
Chile
Belize
CostaRica
Dominica
Brazil
Ecuador
Colombia
Guatemala
Argentina
Peru
Panama
Suriname
Haiti
Uruguay
Guyana
Bolivia
Dom.
Rep.
Real GDP Growth for 2009LAC Countries
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Haiti
Venezuela
Ant.&Barb.
St.Kts.
&Nv.
Bahamas
Barbados
Jamaica
St.Vc.&Grs.
Belize
St.Lucia
Dominica
ElSalvador
Tri.&
Tob.
Ecuador
Guatemala
Nicaragua
Honduras
Colombia
CostaRica
Bolivia
Dom.
Rep.
Suriname
Paraguay
Guyana
Panama
Chile
Mexico
Uruguay
LAC
Argentina
Peru
Brazil
Real GDP Growth Forecasts for 2010LAC countries
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
10/30
C, C C, C
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
Cumulative Change in Monetary Policy RatesSep-08 to Mar-10, percentage po ints
30%
35%
40%
45%
Changes in Exchange RatesSep-08 to Mar-09
10: ECLAC
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
Chile
Colo
mbia
Dom.
Rep.
Peru
Brazil
Hon
duras
M
exico
Guatemala
CostaRica
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Hon
duras
CostaRica
Dom.
Rep.
Nica
ragua
Peru
Guatemala
Chile
Arge
ntina
Colo
mbia
Brazil
M
exico
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
11/30
, ,
Exchange rate anchor
(US$)
Inflation targeting
framework
Other
Ecuador
El Salvador
Panama
Argentina
Honduras
Monetary Policy Framework (April 2008)
Dollarization
Peg
11: D F C E F, IF, A 2008
VenezuelaBolivia
Nicaragua
Crawling band Costa Rica
Guatemala Paraguay
Peru Dom. Rep.
ColombiaUruguay
Brazil
Mexico
Chile
Heavily Managed
Lightly Managed
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
12/30
E C E C
AC... AC...
0.8
1
1.2
General Fiscal Room Index2005 - 2007 Data
oom
12: 1 H . 2 : () A. . (% GD) 20057 () A. . (%
GD) 20057 () A. . GD 20057 () A. . GD 20057 () A. (% GD) 20057 () A. : (%GD)
C (% GD) 20057 () A. : EGD C E GD 20057 () A. 20057.
1 8 ()/() (). : LCCE C DI, E
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Chile
Panama
Peru
Dom.
Rep.
CostaRica
Bolivia
Colombia
Brazil
ElSalvador
Haiti
Mexico
Argentina
Guatemala
Ecuador
Nicaragua
Paraguay
Uruguay
Honduras
Morefiscal
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
13/30
C C
C, C C, C
50%
60%
70%
80%
LAC Exports to Selected Regionsas % of total exports, 2008 data
EAP Euro Zone US
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Suriname
Barbados
Jamaica
Nicaragua
Trin.&
Tob.
Honduras
Guatemala
Mexico
Bahamas
Guyana
Ecuador
Colombia
Belize
Dom.
Rep.
Bolivia
Paraguay
Ecuador
Haiti
Panama
Venezuela
Uruguay
Argentina
Brazil
CostaRica
Dominica
Peru
Chile
13: IF D (D).
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
14/30
C C
0.4
0.5
0.6
Output Co-Movement Between LAC and China
20 years rolling correlation of the Real GDP Growth
South America
14: A. : 10% .
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
.
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
PanamaCosta Rica
Mexico
Nicaragua
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
15/30
E C E C
CA, CA,
A
C
. .
CE
B
A 97% LAC GD 93% LAC
15
40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
HD. .
D
C
G
B
20084 20094
20014 20082
: . 20082. 20084 (20094). : DI, DECG, H A.
A
LAC
C A
C
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
16/30
: :
16
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
17/30
CA CA
, , , ,
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2009 Nominal GDPIn US$ Billions
3.19%
39.61%
4.52%4.07%3.34%
% of LAC's output
22.01%
50
100
150
200
250
2009 PopulationIn Millions of People
7.17%
34.22%
8.81%8.04%7.52%
% of LAC's population
19.22%
9.13%
17: IF IF, D, DI E. : . . .
0eru Central America Chile C. A. + Dom.
Rep.
Mexico Brazil
0Argentina Central
America
Colombia South Afr ica C.A. + Dom.
Rep.
Mexico Brazil
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.40.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Trade Openness of Central America and Dom. Rep.
0.65
0.81
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Trade Openness of LAC-7 Countries
0.37
0.16
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
18/30
, ,
30% 30%
15,000,000
20,000,000
Central Americas Intraregional and Total Export Flows (US$000)
Total Exports
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Costa Rica Nicaragua Honduras El Salvador Guatemala
Intraregional Exports
27.2% 26.6%
27.2%29.5%
26.5%
18Sources: World Bank LCSSD Economics Unit calculations based on Worlds Integrated Trade Solutions and SIECA data, 2010
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
19/30
C , G E C , G E
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Intra-Regional Exports in Central America2007 (US$ 000)
: B LCD E I , 2010 19
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Costa RicaGuatemala
El SalvadorHonduras
PanamaNicaragua
Panama
Costa Rica
NicaraguaHonduras
Guatemala Salvador
Panama
Costa Rica
NicaraguaHonduras
Guatemala Salvador
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
20/30
E E
Honduras Nicaragua Guatemala El Salvador Costa Rica
Multilateral Agreements
WTO Member
Customs Union
CACM Member
Free Trade Agreements
Canada
CARICOM
Chile - Central America
Colombia - N orthern Triangle
20
25
30
35
OTRI (MFN applied tariffs + NTMs) - All GoodsRegional Weighted Averages
2000-2004
2006-09 Latest
20: I (F +) A G ' () . A . : I, B, B, 2010. "DCAFA C A." , DC: B
om. e . - caragua
Dom. Rep. - Central America
DR-CAFTA
HND - SLV - Taiwan
Mexico
Northern Triangle - Mexico
Central America - Panama
Taiwan
Partial Preferential Agreements
Colombia
Venezuela
Panama
Trade Agreements signed but not in f orce Belize FTA China
FTA Singapore
0
5
10
15
C
ostaRica
Honduras
C.A.+
D
om.
Rep.
Chile
Nicaragua
E
lSalvador
G
uatemala
Argentina
LAC-7
Peru
Colombia
Brazil
Mexico
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
21/30
/: /:
; ; ; ;
Potential growth effects of attaining the level of trade integration of the East Asian Tigers
Conditional on the structural factors of the country in 2006-10(In basis points per annum)
Trade openness interacted with:
Baseline Human Financial Institutional Infrastructure Financial Research & Economic
Model Capital Development Quality Stock Openness Development Regulations
Costa Rica 17 53 34 30 53 39 48 19
Dominican Republic 34 104 67 58 104 76 94 37
Guatemala 48 146 94 81 146 106 131 52
Honduras 7 20 13 11 20 14 18 7
Nicaragua 32 98 63 55 98 71 88 35
El Salvador 17 53 34 29 53 38 47 19
Latin America (LAC) 45 137 88 76 137 100 123 49
CAFTA 26 79 51 44 79 58 71 28
LAC (excl. CAFTA) 55 166 107 93 166 121 150 59
21: ( ) C A ( ) E A (EA7). C A EA7 . , , , , . I , , EA7 . : B, 2010. "DCAFA C A." , DC: B
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
22/30
( ) ( )
C , E C , E
Real Map Central America according to each
countrys relative economic weight
Sources: World Bank, LCSSD Economics Unit calculations. 22
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
23/30
GDP Importer
Central America
GDP Importer
Euro Area
CA , CA ,
Impact of key trade variables on total Intra-regional exports
(Gravity Model Estimations for Total Trade)
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Time Adjusted Distance
Adjacency
GDP Exporter
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Distance
Adjacency
GDP Exporter
: B LCD E I , 2010 23
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
24/30
E :E :
C C
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
US$;Kg
Disaggregated costs incurred by a small Central American exporter
Customs, 11%
Others, 9%
Transport, 23%
Duties, 6%
24: C, C . : B C A, 2010
0
0.2
FarmGate
ProducerProfit
IntermediaryMargin
TransportFarmGa
tetoDistributionCenter
HandlingatDistributionCenter
TransportfromDistr
ibutionCentertoBorder
CustomsAg
encyServicesCostaRica
C
ustomsTimeCostaRica
Duty
CustomsAgencyServicesNicaragua
CustomsTimeNicaragua
TransportFromBordertoCenterofDistribution
HandlingatDistributionCenter
TransportformDistributionCe
ntertoOpenAirMarket
HandlingLosses
Storage
Farm Gate, 31%
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
25/30
CA CA
, E , E
8
10
12
Intra-Regional Exports as a Share of Central AmericasCombined GDP (%)
25: B LCD E I , 2010
0
2
46
Current level CA AdjacencyPerformance at CA'sown best performer
level
CA AdjacencyPerformance at
EU15 level
CA DistancePerformance at
EU15 level
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
26/30
E E , ,
CA CA
12,000
16,000
Potential Exports to EU27 and the USUS$ million
33%
26: , . I A C A E15, E27 .. 19% 37% ,
. : B LCD E I , 2010
To EU27 To EU27
To the U.S.
To the U.S.
0
4,000
8,000
Exports from CA, 2007 Potential exports from a spatially-integrated CA
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
27/30
Current flows reflect city congestion and
waiting time at the borders
Removing city congestion and waiting time at the
borders (but without considering capacity
constraints at ports or changes in road conditions)
to.Castilla
arrio
s
.Pue
rtoCortez
to.Castilla
arrio
s
.Pue
rtoCortez
27: B LCD E , 2010
!(!(!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!
!
!
!
Pto.Co
rinto
Pto.Qu
etzal
Pto.
Pto.Ac
ajutla
Pt
Pto. Sto. Tomas de Castilla !(!(!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!(
!
!
!
!
Pto.
Corinto
Pto.
Que
tzal
Pto.
Pto.
Acajut
la
Pt
Pto. Sto. Tomas de Castilla
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
28/30
E C A E C A
C ? C ?
0
2
4
Central America Mexico South America
Current and Planned Terminal Depths across LAC
28: E , 2030, C A 7. : B LCD E , 2010
8
10
12
14
16
Meters
Average of current terminal depths Average of future terminal depths
Panamax
Post-Panamax
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
29/30
??
CA
I , ,
E
I
C
I (., )
E C
29
-
8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank
30/30
G!G!