c. pillot, june 2016

The Rechargeable

Battery Market and

Main Trends 2015-2025

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT

IMLB 2016

June 20th, 2016

Chicago, USA

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2015 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market • Forecasts & conclusions


[email protected]

June 20th, 2016 CHICAGO, USA

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery

forecasts from 2008 to 2014

EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

2010 - 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

2

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

HEV

po

we

red

by

LIB

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007 REALITY

AAB (2012)

AVICENNE 2007-2012

ROLAND BERGER (2011)

IIT (MARCH 2010)

ROLAND BERGER (2012)

DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)

IIT (MARCH 2011)

AAB (2008)


[email protected]


3

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY

DYNAMIC

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2016

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2000 2015

Mill

ion

Un

its

/ ye

ar

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

165 M Portable

PCs

207 M Tablets

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2015

Mill

ion

Un

its/

Ye

ar

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

2000 2015

Ton

s o

f ca

tho

de

/ Ye

ar

Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2000 2015

$/W

h

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)


[email protected]


THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2015

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

MW

h Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

4

2015: Estimations Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2016

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry

investments


[email protected]


0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000M

Wh


1990-2015

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

5

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2016

2015: Estimations


[email protected]



1990-2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

19

90

20

00

20

05

2010

20

13

20

14

20

15

Bill

ion

US

$


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

65 BILLION US$ in 2015 – Pack level1

5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2015)

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

19

90

20

00

20

05

20

10

2013

20

14

20

15

Bill

ion

US$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

E-BIKES

POWER TOOLS

PORTABLE

SLI


SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…

PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,

POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools

INDUSTRIAL

• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others

• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,

AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV

OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

2015: Estimations


[email protected]



IN 2015: US $ 65 BILLION

Portable

Automotive

SLI

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000Others

SLI

Automotive

Portable

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

ESS

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

7

Battery market in 2015 (M$)

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included


0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

ESS

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

US $ > 21

Billion for

“other”

applications


[email protected]


LI-ION IN 2015 MAIN APPLICATIONS

8

(1) Cell level

Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…

Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016

5 600 M cells – 60 000 MWh

16 700 M$ (1)

CAGR 2005/2015

+22 % per year in Volume

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 00020

00

200

120

02

200

320

04

200

520

06

200

720

08

200

920

10

201

120

12

201

320

14

201

5

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015

Others

Industrial,ESS

Auto, E-busChina

Auto, e-busExcl. China

Electronicdevices

Phones 17%

Portable PC 66%

Portable Electronics

17%

2000: < 2GWh

2015: 60 GWh

Electronic devices

50%

Auto, E-bus Excl. China

15%

Auto, E-bus China 16%

Industrial, ESS 8%

Others 11%


[email protected]


LI-ION IN 2015 MAIN APPLICATIONS

CAGR 2005/2015


Cell: +15% per year in value

Pack: +10% per year in value

9

5 600 M cells – +60 000 MWh

16 700 M$ (cell level)


-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

200

020

01

200

220

03

200

420

05

200

620

07

200

820

09

201

020

11

201

220

13

201

420

15

M$

Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, 2000-2015

Others

Industrial,ESS

Auto, E-busChina


Electronicdevices

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

200

020

01

200

220

03

200

420

05

200

620

07

200

820

09

201

020

11

201

220

13

201

420

15

M$

Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, 2000-2015



[email protected]


LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND

10

CATHODE

>140 OOO T in 2015

Revenues: 2,9 B$

CAGR 05/15: +16%

ANODE

>76 000 T

Revenues: 1 B$

CAGR 05/15: +14%

ELECTROLYTE

>62 000 T

Revenues: 0,9 B$

CAGR 05/15 : 20%

SEPARATOR

900 M m²

Revenues: 1,1 B$

CAGR 05/15 : 15%

CELL

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

16,7 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

ANCILLARY

Revenues: 1 B$

PACK

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

>22 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016


[email protected]


NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

CATHODE ACTIVE

MATERIALS NEEDS

Cathode active materials for LIB

in Tons, 2000-2015 (Demand)

(…)

LEADERS:

Internal 2% Nichia

9%

Umicore 15%

B&M 10%

Easpring 6% Reshine

15%

L&F 15%

Other China

8%

Others 2%

Shan Shan 9%

PULEAD 9%

LCO – 40 KT (2015)

NMC – > 40 KT (2015)

Nichia 13%

Umicore 24%

Others 8%

Internal 19%

L&F 9%

ShanShan 11%

Reshine 4%

Chinese 9%

EASPRING 3%

LMO – > 17 KT (2015)

LFP – > 32 KT (2015)

Nichia 5%

Nippon Denko

4% Yuan Yuan 4%

JGC 11%

Qyanyun 12%

ShanShan 9%

Chinese 33%

Reshine 8%

Mitsui 14%

INTERNAL 36%

JOHNSON MATTHEY

8% ALEEES 7%

STL 8%

Pulead 9%

Zhuoneng 8%

Tatung 3%

Others 21%

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

20

00

2005

20

10

20

15

Ton

s

LFP

LMO

NCA

NMC

LCO

NCA – > 14 KT (2015)

Toda Kogyo 16%

Sumitomo 58%

Nihon Kagaku Sangyo

13%

Ecopro 5%

Others 8%


[email protected]


CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL

FORECASTS 2000-2025

Cathode active materials

2000-2025 - Tons

Cathode active materials in

2015: > 140 000 Tons

12

ASSUMPTIONS:

Portable devices: 2015-2025: +6% per year in volume

HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB

P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year + 0,5 M in China in 2020, 0,6 M in 2025 + 1M in China 100% LIB

EV 0,6 M EV/year in 2020 + 1M in China, 1M/year + 1,5 M in China in 2025 100% LIB

Industrial & stationary 2015-2025: +16% per year

Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (200 000 EV sold per year in 2025 – TESLA forecast 500 000)

LCO 27%

NMC 28% NCA

10%

LMO 12%

LFP 23%

Cathode active materials in

2025: 400 000 Tons

LCO 16%

NMC 48%

NCA 9%

LMO 11%

LFP 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

LCO NMC NCA

LMO LFP China (%)


[email protected]


13

ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS

> 75 000 TONS IN 2015

LIB Anode Materials

Source: Hitachi Chemical

Source: Sanyo, March 2013

LIB Anode market, (Tons)

LIB Anode Materials

Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

To

ns

LTO

Si or Sn Type

AmorphousCarbonMeso-Phase

Artificial Graphite

Natural Graphite


[email protected]


LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2015

LIB separator market, M$,

CAGR 2005/2015: +16%

LIB Separator supplier, market

share in 2015

14

Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,…

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M$

Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL (…)

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:

ASAHI 24%

TORAY 21%

SUMITOMO 7%

ENTEK 2%

SK 11%

CELGARD 11%

UBE 9%

Senior 4%

Green 4%

Others 7%


In February 2015, ASAHI announced that they will acquire all Polypore shares in the Energy

Storage segment: Asahi Kasei to pay around $2.2billion to purchase Polypore’s battery separator

business


[email protected]


ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS

> 60 000 TONS IN 2015

LIB electrolyte market, Tons,

CAGR 2005/2015: +25%

LIB electrolyte supplier, market

share in 2015

15

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Ton

s

Industrial Auto & E-Bus China

Automotive (12v, HEV, PHEV, EV) E-bikes

Power Tools Portables electronics

Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:

Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang JINNIU

Ube 4%

Mitsubishi 12%

In-House 9%

Tomiyama 3%

PANAX-ETEC 8%

Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong

15%

Mitsui 3%

Jinniu 8%

Capchem 14%

Shanshan 8%

Soulbrain 5%

TINCI 6%

Others 5%



[email protected]


BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

2015-2025

Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book Cellular Phones, Smart-phones Tablets Camcorders Cordless Tools, Gardening tools Digital Camera Games, MP3 Cordless Phones Shavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars E-bikes Power tools Security lighting Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV Industrial motive (forklift) Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom) Medical Energy Storage (Small / large)

Applications covered Parameters analysis

16

Main segment trends

Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time)

Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor,

2013 -2025 Forecasts

OEM strategies and positions

Main drivers & limiters


[email protected]


2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE

ELECTRONIC DEVICES

2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by

application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,

by form factor (3C)

17

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ells

/yea

r Li-PLi-ion PrLi-ion CylTakeshita - March 2013 (1)

(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

CAGR 15-25: + 6%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

MW

h

Otherr PortableElectronics

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones


[email protected]


0

50

100

150

Million barrel per day

Price of the WTI1 barrel of oil,

US $

MAJOR DRIVER: CO2 regulation

worldwide: From 2013 to 2014

Oil price decrease but HEV sales

increase by 5%, P-HEV by 30%

and EV by 60%

18

WHY X-EV ?

Petroleum consumption worldwide

1960-2030

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19

73

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17 G

aso

line

Pri

ce –

US$

/ G

allo

n

Cru

de

Oil

Pri

ce -

US

$ /

Bar

rel

Source: Energy Information Administration, US Government

Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

Note 1 WTI: West Texas Intermediate

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

2012 2015 2020

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n (

g/km

)

Europe USA Japan China


[email protected]


19

HEV, P-HEV & EV

DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION

Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast

EV & HEV MARKET

EV 25 kWh

HEV 0.6-2 kWh batteries

MICRO HEV*

MILD HEV

MEDIUM HEV

FULL HEV

P HEV 10 kWh batteries

CITROEN C2, C3 BMW 3Series

Fiat 500 Hyundai i10 Hyudai i30

Kia Smart for2

Toyota Yaris Toyota Auris VW Passat

…..

GM Saturn Vue GM AURA

GM MALIBU HONDA ACCORD

HONDA CIVIC INSIGHT

MERCEDES S400

TOYOTA PRIUS

TOYOTA CAMRY FORD ESCAPE FORD FUSION

MILAN GM YUKON GM TAHOE

NISSAN ALTIMA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $

Fuel saving Vs. Cost

HEV

P-HEV

EV


[email protected]


HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2015

1,8 M HEV

HEV sold per year, M units,

worldwide, 2000 - 2015

Penetration of hybrids in the

global sales, 2000-2015

20 Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

Micro hybrid not included

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

200

0

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

201

02

011

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Mill

ion

TOYOTA OTHERS

USA

JAPON

EUROPE 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

200

020

01

200

220

03

200

420

05

200

620

07

200

820

09

201

020

11

201

220

13

201

420

15

Pen

etra

tio

n o

f h

ybri

ds

in t

he

glo

bal

e s

ales

Growth 2014-2015: -3% From 1,9 M to 1,8 M HEV

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Gas

olin

e U

S$ /

Gal

lon

HEV

sal

es

pe

r ye

ar (

US)

Gazoline price impact on HEV

market in the US


[email protected]


21

Others: Smart (3400), Fiat (4500), Bollore (1200), PSA (2700), GM (2700), Daimler (4500),

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016

P-HEV & EV SALES 2010-2015 (YEARLY)

+48%

+61%

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

P-HEV sales

Others

Others China

SAIC

BYD

AUDI

Volvo

Mitsubishi

VW

Ford

Toyota

GM Volt,Ampera

US 18%

JAPAN 5%

EUROPE 37%

CHINA 34%

Others 6%

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

EV sales

Others

Other China

JMC

CHERY

JAC

Geely

BAIC

Zotye

Kandi

BYD

KIA

VW

BMW

Honda

Toyota

Tesla

Renault

Ford

MITSUBISHI

NISSAN

US 20%

JAPAN 5%

EUROPE 29%

CHINA 41%

OTHERS 5%


[email protected]


22

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS

2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh invest from 2011 to 2014)

> 7 B$ invested from 2014 to 2017 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1)

TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 2015

0 2000 4000 6000

PANASONICNISSAN Motor US

SonyBYD

LG ChemJCI

A123SanyoEner1

Nissan-Renault (Fr)Dow Kokam

GS YUASASB Limotive

Hitachi Vehicle EnergyLithium Energy JapanRusnano-Thunder Sky

LG ChemNissan - Renault (UK)

ToshibaBlue Energy

Nissan-Renault (Port)Lishen

BAKSAFT US

SAFTHitachi Vehicle Energy

AESC JaponNEC Tokin

Mitsubishi H.I.SK Energy

Panasonic EVLiTec GmbH

TESLA (2014-2017)BYD (2013 - 2015)ATL (2014 - 2017)

M$

Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Average 2012-2014 Investments: 250 $ / kWh


2014 – 2017 TESLA, ATL, BYD

Investments: 150 $ / kWh

TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Feb 2015


[email protected]


SAFETY ISSUES

23

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious

safety concerns

In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.

• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects

Bac

kg

rou

nd

M

ob

ile

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid

electrolyte.

In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction

starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)

CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of

400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

Au

tom

oti

ve

A

irc

raft

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused

by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to

melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.

CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns:

(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)



[email protected]


SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION

CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

24

Some technologies are already out of the game due to

stability issues



[email protected]


TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming.

Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.

LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago)

Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (20 years ago).

So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.

25


[email protected]


TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

26 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016


[email protected]


LI-ION BATTERY COST

2015-2025

LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch)

(EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST

FOR EV

27

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year

(1) Active materials only

2020 2025 2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

CellManufacturing

Other Materials

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode

Cathode0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kW

h

Margin

Warranty

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&D

Energy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Scraps

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode (1)

Cathode (1)



[email protected]


HEV FORECASTS

2000-2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

HEV

pen

etra

tio

n (

% o

f to

tal c

ar s

ales

)

USA EUROPE JAPAN

OTHERS WORLD

HEV MARKET: <2 M units in 2015 – 2,5 M in 2020 – 3,2 M in 2025

28

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS

Micro hybrid not included



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EV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS

0,9

1,8

2,5

3,2 0,17

0,4

0,65

0,35

1

1,5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

car

s

EV

P-HEV

HEV

2013 forecasts: HEV, P-HEV &

EV market forecasts up to 2025

2016 forecasts: HEV, P-HEV &

EV market forecasts up to 2025

29

Thanks to very high incentives, China will change the

game

0,9

1,8

2,5 3,1

0,16

0,38

0,62

0,27

0,75

1,1 0,5

1

1

1,5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

car

s

EV in China

P-HEV in China

HEV in China

EV

P-HEV

HEV


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XEV BATTERY DEMAND

2025 FORECASTS

Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV

Battery needs (MWh)

CAGR 2015-2025: +21%

Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV

Battery needs (M$)

CAGR 2015-2025: +14%

30

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

12-48 volts SLI HEV

PHEV EV

EV & PHEV China E-bus China

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2010 2015 2020 2025M

$

12-48 volt SLIHEVP-HEVEV, E-BusEV, PHEV & E-Bus China


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35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN

2020

Micro-hybrids car market

2010-2020

Advantages of micro-hybrid

compare to HEV

31

Powered by Advanced lead acid batteries

Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)

Much more impact on CO2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE

OptimisticScenario

JD Power

Valeo

Micro-hybrid Full HEV

Battery Advanced lead acid

NiMH or LIB

Cost ($) 300 3000

Fuel saving 5% 20%

Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020

35 3.5


[email protected]


HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL

BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID

BATTERIES

32

Stand

ard

Lead acid

Batteries

2010 2015 2020 AFTER

Li-ion

batteries

NiM

H b

atte

ries

STANDARD CAR

88.5% EV

P-HEV

FULL

HEV

1%

MILD

HEV

0.5%

MICRO

HYBRIDS

10%

Ad

vanced

Lead acid

NiM

H

STANDARD CAR

44%

MICRO HYBRID

50%

EV

P-HEV

2%

FULL

HEV

4%

ULTRA

BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion


[email protected]



1990-2015

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

33


Lead Acid Batteries

+360 GWh for > US $ 37 Billion

60%

35% 5%

SLI

Industry, ESS

Others

24%

22%

12%

40% 2%

Telecom

UPS

OtherStationary, ESS

Forklift

Other motive

Industrial Batteries

60 GWh for US $ 13 Billion

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

MW

h


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

% In value

% In value


[email protected]



IN 2015: US $ 65 BILLION

Portable

Automotive

SLI

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000Others

SLI

Automotive

Portable

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

ESS

#REF!

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

34

Battery market in 2015 (M$)



0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

ESS

#REF!

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

US $ > 21

Billion for

“other”

applications


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TOTAL POTENTIAL MARKET ANALYZED

IN THE SURVEY (M$, PACK LEVEL1)

Application details US$ 21 Billion in 2015 (1)

35

E-Bikes 14%

Power Tools 7%

Forklift 20%

Other Motive 1%

Telecom 16%

UPS 12%

ESS 15%

Medical devices 8%

Others 5% E-Bikes Power Tools

Forklift Other Motive

Telecom UPS

ESS Medical devices

Marine Others


2- Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering,…


1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 6


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ESS SEGMENTATION

36

Services provided by Energy Storage System (ESS)

Regulation

Arbitrage Investment deferral

Grid independent power supply

• Reconcile momentary differences caused by fluctuations in generation and/ or loads – Frequency regulation – Voltage support – Load following/ ramping support – Power quality

Back-up and reserves

• Provide emergency power when utility power is not available – UPS (Uninterruptible power

supply) – Power continuity – Reserves to face lose of one

generator

Black start • Provide an active reserve of power

and energy to (re)start power generator

• Store energy when the price of electricity is low and releases it on the grid when prices are high

• Enable deferral of utility investments by using relatively small amounts of storage – Congestion relief – Avoid infrastructure investment

• Provide electricity power supply in an area not connected to the grid e.g. – Rural community – Based stations powered by

Solar energy

On grid services

Off grid services


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ESS SEGMENTATION

37


[email protected]


ESS MARKET & FORECASTS

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2015 2025

MW

H

Generation and T&D segments (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)

UPS (18)

Power continuity, Telecom (17)

ESS End Users (13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20)

From 36 GWh to 65 GWh in 2015

CAGR: +6%

ESS excl Telecom & UPS

CAGR: +13 to 15%

38

Source: AVICENNE Energy, 2016

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2015 2025 2025 Opt.

MW

H

Generation and T&D segments (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)

ESS End Users (13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20)

Li-ion 28%

Others 72%

Li-ion 52%

Others 48%


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LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

39



From 60 GWh in 2015 to

215 GWh (1)

CAGR 2015/2015


-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

200

0

200

5

201

0

201

5

202

0

202

5

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015

Others

Industrial,ESS

Auto, E-busChina


Electronicdevices

2015: 60 GWh

2025: 215 GWh

Electronic devices

50%


15%


Industrial, ESS 8%

Others 11%

Electronic devices

26%


19%


Industrial, ESS 9%

Others 9%

11% 16% 24% 16% 6%

CAGR 15/25


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LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

CAGR 2005/2015 +15 % per year in Volume

Cell: +9% per year in value

Pack: +8% per year in value

40 Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

M$

Li-ion cells

M$, Worldwide, 2000-2015

Others

Industrial,ESS

Auto, E-busChina


Electronicdevices

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

202

0

20

25

M$

Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, 2000-2015



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TAKEAWAYS

41

Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices (smartphones, tablets) In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 8 B$ market in 2015 - 21 B$ in 2020 & 27 B$ in 2025 with high growth un China EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2-3%% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years Energy storage will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 to 10 years and could become a huge market if the Li-ion battery cost system < 150$/kWh.

Battery Market 2010-2025

CAGR = +10%

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY

MARKET WORLDWIDE

2000-2025

2000 2010 2020 2025

MW

h Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%)NiMH (-9%) LIB for 3C (+0%)LIB for xEV (+13,5%) LIB for Others* (+8%)Others (+15%)

25 B$ 29B$

64 B$

88 B$

> 105 B$

280 GWh

380 GWh

575 GWh

775 GWh

9

10

52

(CAGR 2014-2025)

27

(Pack level) 4,3

40B$


[email protected]


THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

42

c. pillot, june 2016

Data & Analytics