Impa

cts o

f Clim

ate C

hang

e

at 1.

5˚C, 2

˚C an

d 4˚C

Glob

al W

arm

ing

River flow changes at 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C global warming: a range of possible futures

Rhine

+20% •

0% •

–20% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Danube

+40% •

+20% •

0% •

–20% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Oder

+40% •

0% •

–20% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Elbe

+80% •

0% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Kemijoki

+200% •

120% •

40% •

0% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Volga

+120% •

80% •

40% •

0% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Amazon

+40% •

0% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Mississippi

+40% •

0% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Gaudana

+40% •

+20% •

0% •

+20% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Parana

+80% •

+40% •

0% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Orange

+40% •

+20% •

0% •

+20% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Indus

+120% •

80% •

40% •

0% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Huang He

+80% •

60% •

40% •

20% •

0% •

–20% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Yangtze

+80% •

+40% •

0% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Ganges

+1200% •

+1000% •

+800% •

+600% •

+400% •

+200% •

0% •

–200% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Murray

+80% •

+40% •

0% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Nile

+120% •

80% •

40% •

0% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Congo

+80% •

+40% •

0% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

Niger

+80% •

+40% •

0% •

–40% •

1.52

4(+˚C)

1.51.5˚̊CC

22˚̊CC4˚4˚CC

Average of model projections

Wettest projections (largest increases, sm

allest decreases)

Driest projections (smallest increases, largest decreases)

Proportion of models projecting increase (blue) and decrease (orange)

Selected river basins, with a sum

mary of di�erent possible changes in river �ow

s projected for each basin. The bar charts show

both the “wettest” projections for

that basin, which are the greatest increase (or sm

allest decrease) in river �ows,

and the “driest” projections, the greatest decrease (or smallest increase), as w

ell as the average of all projections. These are show

n for di�erent levels of global w

arming: 1.5oC, 2oC and 4oC.

The possible e�ect of climate change on river �ow

s in this map are generated by

9 computer m

odels. The pie charts show the num

ber of models w

hich project an increase in river �ow

, and the number w

hich project a decrease in �ow. These

models are realistic enough to be used to successfully forecast the w

eather on a daily basis. For clim

ate change projections, the models are continued into the

future and allowed to respond to estim

ates of increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. These longer-term

projections give a range of future outcom

es depending on the exact details of how the m

odels are set up. A

lthough some aspects of the results such as ongoing w

arming can be

treated with con�dence, other aspects such as particular changes in rainfall can

only be seen as possible outcomes. D

i�erent models produce di�erent

outcomes, and it is not possible to identify a single ‘best’ m

odel to give a con�dent prediction. Therefore a range of outcom

es needs to be considered.

Each computer m

odel simulated possible future changes in tem

perature, rainfall and other w

eather quantities. These outputs were used as inputs to a further set

of models w

hich simulated changes in evaporation, soil m

oisture and river �ows.

The result is a set of projected changes in river �ows in m

ajor river basins in di�erent parts of the w

orld as illustrated in the map.

Further details of the methods and m

odels are available at ww

w.helixclim

ate.eu

HEL

IX (H

igh-

End

cLim

ate

Impa

cts a

nd e

Xtre

mes

) is a

n in

tern

atio

nal r

esea

rch

proj

ect f

unde

d by

the

Euro

pean

Com

mis

sion

to a

sses

s som

e of

the

cons

eque

nces

of e

xcee

ding

inte

rnat

iona

l tar

gets

of l

imiti

ng g

loba

l war

min

g.

Thes

e m

aps

are

a vi

sual

isat

ion

of s

ome

of th

e da

ta re

sulti

ng fr

om 4

yea

rs o

f res

earc

h as

sess

ing

the

pote

ntia

l im

pact

s of

clim

ate

chan

ge a

t 1.5

°C, 2

°C a

nd 4

°C g

loba

l war

min

g.

We

asse

ssed

impa

cts

such

as

heat

str

ess,

drou

ght,

river

and

coa

stal

�oo

ding

, and

cha

nges

in

cro

p yi

elds

and

land

eco

syst

ems.

We

used

new

, hig

her-

reso

lutio

n gl

obal

clim

ate

mod

els,

and

expl

ored

the

impl

icat

ions

of a

rang

e of

pos

sibl

e re

gion

al c

limat

e re

spon

ses.

Dat

e of

pub

licat

ion

Janu

ary

2018

For f

urth

er in

form

atio

n:w

ww

.hel

ixcl

imat

e.eu

· h

elix

clim

ate@

exet

er.a

c.uk

@he

lixcl

imat

e

ww

w.fa

cebo

ok.c

om/h

elix

clim

ate

Proj

ect d

irect

or:

Prof

Ric

hard

Bet

ts (U

nive

rsity

of E

xete

r and

Met

O�

ce H

adle

y Ce

ntre

, UK)

HEL

IX w

as fu

nded

und

er th

e 7t

h Fr

amew

ork

Prog

ram

me

of th

e Eu

rope

an C

omm

issi

on

(gra

nt n

umbe

r 603

864)

+–

EasternAustralia

– +

WesternAustralia

1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Northern Australia

Amazon

– + 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Amazonia

India

Northern IndiaIndia

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Southern USASouthern USA

– +

USA

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Central Canada

– +

Alaska &North Canada

1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Canada

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Northwest USA

– +

Western USA

1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Arctic Russia

1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Russia

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Southern Africa

– + 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Central Africa

Mexico

1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Scandinavia

– +

Iran &Afganistan

– +

Spain

– +

Kenya

1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Eastern Europe

1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

East CentralAfrica

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Bangladesh

Vietnam

Pakistan

Myanmar Thailand

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Thailand

China Western China

– +

China

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Eastern China

Middle East

IndonesiaIndonesia

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Central AfricaNorthern Sub-Saharan Africa

UK

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

West Africa

– + 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

West CentralAfrica

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Cameroon

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Tanzania

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Australia

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

+5˚C +4˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+3˚C

+3˚C

+3˚C

+3˚C

+3˚C

+4˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+0.5˚C

+0.5˚C

+0.5˚C

+0.5˚C

+0.5˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C +1˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+3˚C

+4˚C +4˚C

+5˚C

+6˚C

+5˚C

+6˚C

+5˚C+5˚C

+5˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+1˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+2˚C

+3˚C

+3˚C

+3˚C

+4˚C

+4˚C

These estimates of climate change impacts were calculated using a set of global climate model simulations updated from those presented in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. Changes in local climates projected by these models were used to calculate impacts in locations across the world. Heat stress is indicated by Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, calculated from a combination of temperature and humidity. Vulnerability to food insecurity is calculated using changes in the length of time under extremes of precipitation representing floods and droughts, along with other food security relevant indicators. Number of people affected by river flooding is calculated from a river flow model and statistical relationships between high river flows and people flooded. Time under severe drought uses a locally-defined definition of severe drought based on low river flows. Vegetation biomass is simulated with a global vegetation model.

For each impact quantity, the magnitude of impact is shown for global warming of 1.5˚C, 2˚C and 4˚C global warming relative to pre-industrial. Where appropriate, the present-day level of impact is shown for context.

These projections were made as part of the research project HELIX (High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes)

For further information:www.helixclimate.eu · helixclimate@exeter.ac.uk @helixclimate www.facebook.com/helixclimate

Project director:Prof Richard Betts (University of Exeter and Met Office Hadley Centre, UK)

HELIX was funded under the 7th Framework Programme of the European Commission (grant number 603864)

Niger

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Ethiopia

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Brazil

Base 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Impacts of Climate Change at 1.5˚C, 2˚C and 4˚C Global Warming

Change in vegetation biomass (%)Change in surface temperature at 2°C global warming relative to pre-industrial climate

+˚ Celsius

+˚ Fahrenheit

Vulnerability to food insecurity (Index)Relative national-level vulnerability, as measured by the Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index

1.2 = Extremely vulnerable 0 = Least vulnerable

Baseline 1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C

Heat stress (Index)“Feels-like” temperature, including effect of humidity

Drought (%)Percentage change in the length of severe drought

0+5-5

+10

+15

+20

+25+35

+30

-10

1.5˚C

2˚C

4˚C

River floodingnumber of people affected by river flooding per year(Millions)

50 •45 •40 •35 •30 •25 •20 •15 •10 •

5 •0 •

1.5˚CBaseline 2˚C 4˚C

1.5˚C

Baseline

2˚C

4˚C

36˚C •

35˚C •

34˚C •

33˚C •

32˚C •

31˚C •

30˚C •

29˚C •

28˚C •

0 •

1.2 •

1 •

0.8 •

0.6 •

0.4 •

0.2 •

0 •

250 •

200 •

150 •

100 •

50 •

0 •

-50 •

1.5˚C 2˚C 4˚C