c-change working paper: the vulnerability of coastal...

C-Change Secretariat (Canada) www.coastalchange.ca C-Change Secretariat (Caribbean) Telfer School of Management, c/o Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of University of Ottawa Social & Economic Studies (SALISES) 55 Laurier Avenue East University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Ottawa ON K1N 6N5 Canada Trinidad and Tobago, West Indies Tel: (613) 562-5800 Post 2933 Telephone: (868) 662-6965 Email: [email protected] E-mail : [email protected]

C-Change Working Paper:

The Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Sea-level Rise: A case study of Grande Riviere, Trinidad and Tobago

by

Sandra Sookram Fellow, Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social & Economic Studies

The University of The West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, Trinidad and Tobago e-mail: [email protected]

and

Michael Sutherland

Lecturer, Department of Geomatics Engineering and Land Management The University of The West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, Trinidad and Tobago

e-mail: [email protected]

C-Change Working Paper MARCH 2011

Published by the C-Change Secretariat (Canada)

Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa C-Change ICURA Working Paper Series No. 32

This document is prepared as a public discussion document among C-Change communities as part of the C-Change ICURA Project 2009-2015 (www.coastalchange.ca) and with the permission of the C-Change Secretariat (Canada). This paper has not been subjected to peer review or other review processes and does not necessarily represent the

position of individual C-Change Community Partners or researchers. This work is presented to encourage debate and enhance awareness of environmental change among coastal communities in Canada and the Caribbean.

© C-Change

Correspondence on this paper should be directed to the C-Change Secretariat, c/o C-Change Administrator, Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa,

55 Laurier Avenue East, Ottawa, Ontario CANADA K1N 6N5 email: [email protected] Telephone: +1 (613) 562-5800 x2933

mailto:[email protected]


http://www.coastalchange.ca/


C-Change Working Paper #32

Abstract The community of Grande Riviere in Trinidad and Tobago was the subject of a multidisciplinary study that employed a combination of geomatics, i.e., the use of field surveys and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and socio-economic data to evaluate the susceptibility of the community to floods and storm surges due to sea-level rise. An examination was made of the level of risk that the critical facilities and properties in the community could face in the future by using projections of sea-level rise presented via spatial GIS models. Micro-data on socio-economic characteristics of the community was collected through a face-to-face administered questionnaire. The results of this study may have important policy implications since policy- and decision makers will have to act to reduce and/or eliminate risk of exposure of specific areas of the community by implementing adaptation or mitigation measures and directing development away from future high-risk areas. Keywords Caribbean, Trinidad and Tobago, Sea-Level Rise, Geographic Information Systems

March 2011 Page | 2


C-Change Working Paper: The Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Sea-level Rise: A case study of

Grande Riviere, Trinidad and Tobago

1. Introduction

The main objective of this paper is to outline the methodological framework employed in

carrying out the goals for a research program1 that seeks to examine and address the dilemma

that coastal communities in the Caribbean and Canada can face due to the impact of sea level

rise. A major facet of the research program is to involve the community and obtain community

participation so that members of the community may determine the importance of protecting

their interests. It is the community that will be ultimately affected by the research project and the

consequent policy decisions, so it follows that they should play an active role and have some

influence in the planning process. A related goal of this research project is to provide the

affected coastal communities with the educational capacity to deal with and adapt to the

impending changes due to sea level rise. Table 1 outlines the various aspects of the C-Change

Research Program.

Table 1: The C-Change Research Program

Source: Lane and Watson (2010). Available from: sta.uwi.edu/conferences/09/salises/documents/D%20lane.pdf

March 2011 Page | 3

1 C‐Change is an International Community‐University Research Alliance (ICURA) project jointly undertaken by SALISES, The University of the West Indies and Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa


The communities chosen for this research exercise were chosen on specific criteria and are

located in the Caribbean and Canada. Table 2 provides a description of the communities in both

the Caribbean and Canada along with the characteristics of the selected communities.

Table 2: Communities in Caribbean and Canada

Source: Lane and Watson (2010). Available from: sta.uwi.edu/conferences/09/salises/documents/D%20lane.pdf

The research project is a multidisciplinary one and involves profiling the community by

collecting environmental, economic and social from the identified communities. The project

involves GIS spatial modeling of projected sea level rise scenarios according to selected

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections (IPCC 2007), using data

collected via topographic and hydrographic surveying techniques, to support socioeconomic

assessments of potential sea level rise impacts upon the community of Grande Riviere.

The use of GIS in support of socioeconomic analyses is not new. GIS has been used to assist in

the analysis of socioeconomic impacts related to such things as transportation forecast demand

(Ding 1994; Wang 2005), labour markets (Ballas 2000), marine reserve alternatives (Leeworthy

and Wiley 2003), gender issues (Brown 2003), and climate change in relation to a number of

issues (Middelkoop 2001; Patz et al. 2005; Ouedraogo, Some and Dembele 2006; Dasgupta et al.

2006), among other things. From as long ago as 1995 scholars investigated the utility of GIS

modeling to assist policy makers and planners in the design of more effective policies “better

tuned both to specific local needs and to overall socio-economic and environmental constraints”

(Engelen et al. 1995). Within the Caribbean Region studies have been done on the need for, and

use of GIS in relation to natural hazard assessments (Organization of American States 2004). It

was concluded that GIS data and systems need to be standardized in order to make best regional

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use of the technology. However, to date, in spite of academic initiatives, Caribbean countries

continue on individual pathways of development in relation to the use of GIS and other spatial

technologies to assist in the impacts of natural hazards upon the socioeconomic wellbeing of the

region’s jurisdictions. Access to spatial data and results from studies in the region continues to be

a major problem. The ICURA project, therefore, chose to engage in GIS modeling to support the

socioeconomic impacts of sea level rise in the coastal community of Grande Riviere, Trinidad,

based upon best available secondary data supplemented by the acquisition of local spatial

primary data. The premise of the multidisciplinary approach is that baseline socioeconomic data,

represented spatially, can be spatially intersected with models of selected sea level rise

projections in order to provide the basis for estimating the socioeconomic impacts of the sea

level rise projections upon Grande Riviere.

In order to fulfill the objectives and address the data needs of the socioeconomic aspect of the

project, micro level data is to be collected from each of the communities identified in Table 2.

At present, data has been collected from Grande Riviere, Trinidad and Tobago and from

Georgetown, Guyana from the Caribbean region. Since Grande Riviere is the first community

being studied this paper examines the methodology used in data collection and provides some

preliminary results that were obtained.

Grande Riviere is a small, coastal community situated in the north-eastern part of Trinidad

between Toco and Matelot (See Figure 1). According to Harrison (2007), the population of

Grande Riviere fell from 718 to 334 between the years 1931 and 2000 (headcount at last

Population Census in 2000). The economic mainstay of the Grande Riviere community lies

mainly in agriculture and ecotourism2.

Figure 1: Map of Trinidad showing the Grande Riviere Community

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2 The coastline of the Grande Riviere village is one of the world’s most important nesting sites for the leatherback sea turtle. The beach is half a mile long but is considered to be one of the most densely nested leatherback beaches in the world and during the nesting season can host more than 5,000 leatherback turtles (Appenzeller, 2009).


Source: Harrison, D. (2007) Cocoa, Conservation and Tourism Grande Riviere, Trinidad. Annals of Tourism Research, 34(4), pp. 919-242.

The next section of the paper reviews the literature on the knowledge and awareness of climate

change and eco-tourism in Trinidad and Tobago and the lists the community organisations in

Grande Riviere.

2. Review of the Literature

2.1 Knowledge and Awareness of Climate Change and Ecotourism in Trinidad and Tobago

Within recent times the Government of Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) have taken steps to

formulate and implement climate change policy in T&T. The Climate Change Policy of

Trinidad and Tobago (2009) summary document lists the objectives that will guide policy

formulation:

i. reduce or avoid greenhouse gas emissions from all emitting sectors

ii. enhance carbon sinks

iii. conserve and building resilience of human and natural systems to adapt to the adverse impacts

of climate change, including through capacity building and the application of cleaner

technologies

iv. protect of the natural environment and human health

v. enhance agricultural production and food security

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The literature on knowledge and awareness of climate change suggest that generally the Trinidad

and Tobago public do not strongly value protection of the environment nor do they have an

awareness of climate change, and that socioeconomic factors tend to influence the degree of their

knowledge. The ecotourism module of the questionnaire is vital in this study because if

ecotourism can alter the way the public views preservation of the environment then it could be a

useful instrument in raising the knowledge and awareness of climate change in Grande Riviere.

A study undertaken by Barran (1999) found that attitudes towards the environment and the

importance of the environmental protection tended to vary widely among different social groups

and was apt to be affected by the how natural resources (medicine, craft, fruits, vegetables, wild

meat, recreation and timber) were used by these individuals. Nelson (2004) in a survey of 630

persons across Trinidad found that knowledge and attitudes to biodiversity were influenced by

gender, ethnicity, education and income.

2.2 Community Organisations in the North Eastern Region of Trinidad

The Caribbean Regional Environmental Programme CREP (2002) lists seventy (70)

organisations in the northeastern area of Trinidad and Tobago with the environmental

organisations being the most active. In particular, the report highlights:

1. The Toco Foundation

2. Stakeholders against Destruction for Toco (SAD for Toco)

3. Matura to Matelot Network (M2M)

In the Grande Riviere area there are two environmental organisations: The Grande Riviere

Nature Tour-Guide Association (GRNTA) and Grande Riviere Tourism Development

Organisation (GRTDO).

3. Economic Methodology

The surveys were designed to capture information from the community, from national and

international tourists visiting the community and from international tourists visiting Trinidad and

Tobago.

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3.1 Surveys

Community

Due to the fact that Grande Riviere is a small community it was decided to survey all households

in the community if possible. The survey was allowed to continue during the weekends of a one-

month period (March 2010) with the intention of capturing micro-level data from the households

(sampling unit) in Grande Riviere. The interviewees were asked to interview the ‘Head of the

Household’ or any adult over 18 years residing at that address. At the end of the period 101

households were surveyed.

National and International Visitors to Grande Riviere

Tourism, more specifically ecotourism, is an important source of income to the Grande Riviere

Community. Two questionnaires were prepared for administration in this survey, one for

national visitors to the area and one for international visitors to Grande Riviere. The sampling

unit is a visitor to the Grande Riviere area. The survey was carried during the April-May (2010)

period with the aim of capturing data from visitors (both national and international) who would

most likely be visiting the community to observe the Leatherback turtles. It was determined that

this was the best way to obtain data to carry out an assessment of the ecotourism services at

Grande Riviere and the economic impact that these services have or can potentially have in the

area. The separate surveys captured data from 114 domestic tourists and 107 international

tourists.

Visitors to Trinidad and Tobago

The objective of this survey was to determine how knowledgeable a typical tourist to Trinidad

and Tobago was in relation to the sights and attractions of Trinidad and Tobago with a few

additional questions on turtle-watching. The sampling unit is a visitor to Trinidad and Tobago.

Included in the questionnaire were questions that targeted attempted to determine the knowledge

of the tourist to Grande Riviere and the tourist attractions of the area. The survey was carried

during the month of May 2010. Two hundred and fifty four (254) visitors were surveyed at the

Piarco International Airport.

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3.2 Design and Description of the Questionnaires

Questionnaire Design

Saunders et al. (2003) noted that questionnaires have been used to collect data on behaviours,

opinions and knowledge for more than a century. They further observe that data collected

through the questionnaire method permits the individual or sample unit to provide information

for the same collection of questions ensuring that the data is directly comparable. This type of

data lends itself very well to quantitative analysis. A questionnaire can be administered

thorough various methods and in different ways, for example, face-to-face, by phone, by post or

online. The eventual method chosen depends on the objectives of the survey and to a lesser

extent the time frame and budget for the survey.

The questionnaires in this study were all administered face-to-face. It was decided to use this

questionnaire method because of some of the questions could have been categorized as either

technical, requiring some clarification or sensitive. Another important reasons for using this

questionnaire method was that it was critical that a high level of response be obtained due to the

limited amount of households in the areas. A potential disadvantage of the face-to-face

technique is that interviewers could bias the delivery and interpretation of the questionnaire,

especially in the case where a team of interviewers are employed. To circumvent this problem a

highly intensive training session was held for the team of interviewers prior to the pilot survey.

After the pilot survey a debriefing session was held, which served to hone the questions and

delivery of the questionnaire.

The format of the questions is also important and questions can be either open-ended (any

response permitted) or closed (answer is limited to predetermined list or scale). While a closed

question lends itself to quick and easy recording (both at the interview and digital input stages),

responses to such questions may easily be biased and restrictive for the respondent. Open

questions on the other hand permit the freedom of a wide range of answers, but it lengthens the

interview and input process considerably (it is close to impossible to code all responses), and it

limits the scope of the quantitative analysis. All of the questionnaires for this research project

contained both open-ended and closed questions, with some of the open-ended questions being

coded upon entry to facilitate statistical analysis.

March 2011 Page | 9


The length of the questionnaire is an important consideration. A questionnaire has to be of

adequate length to ensure that ample information and details are gathered. Cochran (1977)

pointed out that surveys lasting for long time run the risk of collecting low quality information

since the respondents may become impatient and disinterested. In this case the survey was

expected to last no longer than 30 minutes.

Questionnaire Description: Community This questionnaire had five (5) sections: general, demographic and socioeconomic, ecosystem

services, eco-tourism and the leatherback turtles, awareness/knowledge of climate change.

Section 1: General Questions

The questions in this section of the questionnaire administered to the community examined the

thoughts and opinions of the inhabitants of Grande Riviere on a very basic level. Questions

sought to ascertain the issues considered important to the respondents on a community level and

their perception of what constitutes climate change and the significance of the changing climate

in Grande Riviere.

Respondents were asked to indicate what in their opinion were the three most important issues

facing Trinidad and Tobago. The results of the survey of 101 households in the community

indicate that 50 of those persons thought that the most important issue facing the community was

crime, with roads and health being ranked as second most important and third most important,

respectively. One household highlighted the environment as one of the most important issues

facing the country.

Among other concerns, also in this section of the questionnaire respondents were asked what the

phrase ’climate change’ meant to them. Thirty six (36) respondents indicated that they had never

heard the phrase ‘climate change’ before, while fifty (50) individuals associated it with more

intense hurricanes. Another question in this section attempted to ascertain the households

perceived threats to Grande Riviere in terms of climate change and the natural environment.

Specifically, one part of the question addressed the issue of sea level rise. As shown in Figure 1,

most persons agree that sea level would pose a future challenge to the Grande Riviere

community.

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Figure 1: Perception of Sea Level Rise as a Future Challenge to Grande Riviere

Agree

Disagree

Don't Know

Section 2: Demographic Information

Findings in this section of the questionnaire signify that approximately 50% of the households

surveyed were in the community for over 35 years, however 54% of the respondents indicated

that they did not own the land upon which their house was built. Most of the households were

African (76%) while the remainder considered themselves ‘Mixed’. Seventy two percent of the

employed persons indicate that they work in the Grande Riviere area and most of the households

have individuals employed by a private enterprise (see Figure 2). An inspection of the

household income figures show that approximately 60% of all households had a monthly income

of between TT$1,000 – TT$5,000. With regard to informal sector activity, only 12 percent of

the respondents indicate that they carried out such activity during the past month.

Figure 2: Sector Employed and Employment Status

051015202530

Section 3: Ecosystem Services



In the first sub-section of this section of the questionnaire, households were asked about their use

of certain natural resources (wild herbs, wild fruit, fish, wild animals and birds and traditional

medicines using local plants). Results show that the highest percentage of persons (47%) used

fish from the local rivers and sea and used local plants as traditional medicine – in both of these

cases utilization rates were between 1 and 4 times for the month

The second sub-section examined ‘agriculture’ and households were asked if they were engaged

in farming. Approximately 46% specified that they undertook farming and of that percentage,

approximately 56% did not own the land on which they farmed. The third sub-section

attempted to elicit information on ‘Fisheries’. It was found that 81% of households did not fish

or hunt crabs. Other sub-sections of the ‘Ecosystem Services’ section asked about the regulation

of services and cultural and recreational services.

Section 4: Eco-Tourism and Leatherback Turtles

This section of the questionnaire investigates the role that eco-tourism and the leatherback turtles

play in the Grande Riviere community. It was found that just about 18% of households had

members who acted as tour guides on the Grande Riviere beach and approximately half of them

earned an income from the activity. Ninety eight percent of the respondents agreed that turtle

nesting in Grande Riviere increased over the last 10-15 years and they unanimously agreed that

the leatherback turtles should be protected.

Section 5: Awareness/Knowledge of Climate Change

The community’s awareness and knowledge of climate change were examined in this section of

the questionnaire. Figure 3 shows the responses by households regarding their knowledge of

climate change and it is clear that the highest number of respondents indicate that they do not

know much about climate change.

Figure 3: Knowledge of Climate Change



05101520253035

Further, respondents were requested to indicate whether they thought that Grande Riviere was at

risk from climate change. Figure 4 shows that most respondents thought that climate change

posed somewhat or a great deal of risk to Grande Riviere.

Figure 4: The risk of Climate Change to Grande Riviere

0 10 20 30 40

A Great Deal

Somewhat

Hardly at All

Don't Know/Not Sure

Households were asked to identify weather changes in Grande Riviere with the last 5-10 years.

Table 3 shows the responses of households to weather changes in Grande Riviere.

Table 3: Weather Changes in Grande Riviere



Weather Change Yes No Don’t Know/Not Sure Rainfall 84 11 5 Drought 62 31 6 Tropical Storms/Hurricanes 11 77 10 Rising Tides/Seas 55 31 13 Temperature increase/decrease

82 12 5

Coastal Erosion 47 35 16 Landslides 45 46 7 Flooding 13 79 6 Seasonality of Crops 43 38 17 Vegetation Changes 2 17 4

It is clear that respondents agree that rainfall and temperature are two of the key changes they

have observed in the area. Interestingly, only 55 of the persons interviewed indicate that they

have noticed rising tides and seas and 47 of them agreed that there was coastal erosion.

Respondents were also given some terms and were asked whether they associated them with

climate change. Higher proportions of the sample associated earthquakes, sea level rise,

droughts and global warming with climate change.

With regard to responsibilities to dealing with climate change, Figure 4 shows that the majority

of respondents deemed the government responsible for addressing climate change.

Figure 5: Responsibility for Addressing Climate Change

Government

Business/Industry

Community Organisations

Private Citizens

A key question in this section enquired about whether respondents were interested in finding our

more about the impact of the weather on Grande Rivieve. This question is important since a

major aspect of this research project deals with educating the community on issues related to

potential changes in the climate and its effects on the area. A high proportion of the respondents

were either ‘somewhat interested or ‘very interested’ in finding more about the impact of the



weather on Grande Riviere.

Figure 6: Interest in Climate Change and its Impact on Grande Riviere

05101520253035404550

Not Interested

Somewhat Interested

Very Interested

Don't Know/Not

Sure

Respondents were asked what in their opinion is the most important thing that the Grande

Riviere community can do to prevent or lessen the impact of climate change. The two most

frequent responses were that bush fires should be avoided and that there should be community

awareness.

The final section in the community questionnaire dealt with the willingness to learn about

climate change and the role that various media can play in increasing knowledge and awareness.

Respondents were asked if they read/listen to or watch stories on climate change. As can be

determined by Figure 7, approximately 43% of the persons indicated that they frequently or

occasionally read/listen or watch stories related to climate change. Relatedly, and from another

question, 80% of the respondents would like to obtain more information on climate change by

any of the above-mentioned methods.

Figure 7 : Knowledge Gained on Climate Change



0 10 20 30 40

Frequently

Occasionally

Infrequently

Don't Know/Not Sure

Finally, respondents were asked which would be the best ways to inform them about climate

change. This question was asked as a guide to which would be the best way(s) to disseminate

information to the community. The most preferred media (over 60% response rate) were:

television, radio, newspaper, community groups, pamphlets and brochures, posters, schools and

through friends/family.

4. GEOMATICS FIELD SURVEY AND GIS METHODOLOGY

The topographic and hydrographic field survey- and GIS methodological approaches were

chosen to maximize use of best available secondary spatial data, and to supplement that with

primary field data where appropriate. On the whole, the methodology comprised primary spatial

data collection (i.e., using topographic and hydrographic surveying techniques), secondary

spatial and thematic data collection, and GIS processing of the collected data (including dataset

overlays, Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN) creation as a digital elevation model (DEM), and

static sea level rise flooding simulations).

4.1 Methodological Limitations

The assumption, with regard to creation of the spatial sea level rise model, was that sea level rise

was absolute, i.e., neither subsidence nor uplift of the proximate coastal landmass was taken into

account. At the time of the field surveys and model creation, coastal dynamics in relation to the

study site were not taken into account. Therefore, the model created represents an overlap of

projected sea level rise upon a temporal snapshot of the state of the coastal environment.

4.2 Data



Data used to build the sea level rise model comprised a composite of secondary and primary spatial and

thematic data of Grande Riviere and environs. The sections below describe the relevant datasets.

4.2.1 Secondary Data Collection

Secondary data used in the sea level rise model comprised both raster and vector datasets. The raster

dataset was 1m aerial photography from which coverage for Grande Riviere and environs was extracted.

The vector datasets included contours, buildings, roads, property rights boundaries, coastline, river and

vegetation. The contour dataset was created via the use of photogrammetry and is accurate to ±0.50m.

The buildings, roads, coastline, river and vegetation datasets were digitized from 1994 satellite imagery

and 2007 aerial photography using ERSI’s ArcMap. The parcel dataset was scanned from an index map

and georeferenced to the WGS84 datum. With the exception of the buildings dataset, which bears an

accuracy of ±2m, the other datasets are accurate to within ±5m.

4.2.2 Primary Data Collection

A Trimble R6 GPS Receiver was used to establish control points within the study site. Dimensional

accuracies obtained in WGS84 coordinates were: (1) x = ±0.02m; (2) y = ± 0.02m; and (3) z = ±0.20m.

All subsequent topographic surveys retained these accuracies.

It was necessary to estimate Mean Sea Level (MSL) at Grande Riviere in order to create the sea level rise

model of the community. Long term tidal observations were not available for Grande Riviere. MSL at

Grande Riviere was estimated via a tidal datum transfer from Toco fishing village where a tide gauge is

located. Simultaneous tidal observations (done at both Toco fishing village and Grande Riviere), tide

reductions and precise leveling were used to establish MSL at Grande Riviere.

Topographic surveying techniques were used to obtain 2010 data and to update previously collected

secondary data on buildings, building heights, roads, and property boundaries. This field survey technique

was also used to obtain beach profiles and as well to obtain spot heights along the beach.

4.3 Data Processing

The primary topographic survey data collected at Grande Riviere were then processed and imported into

ArcGIS (ArcMap). The primary and secondary datasets were then used in ArcMap (3D Analyst) to create

a 3D model of Grande Riviere and environs. The model has a horizontal accuracy of ±0.02m and a

vertical accuracy of ±0.20m. The model was then classified to the appropriate sea level rise projection

intervals needed for the model simulations. Selected IPCC projections were used to digitize various flood

polygons, simulating sea level rise (i.e., 0.4m, 0.5m, 0.6m, 0.8m, 1m etc. above MSL).



4.4 GIS Sea Level Rise Model

After all datasets were processed as described above, the aerial photography and vector datasets were then

overlaid onto the TIN to present visualizations of Grande Riviere and the potential sea level rise physical

impacts upon its environment and community infrastructure. 2D (using ArcMap) and 3D (using

ArcScene) visualizations were created.

5. SPATIAL RESULTS AND ANALYSES

Some of the sea level rise impact visualizations resulting from applying the foregoing

methodology are illustrated in Figures 3.1 to 3.8 below. Figures 3.1 and 3.2 show 2D and 3D

views, respectively, of MSL at Grande Riviere beach. Crudely measured, using the area

measuring tool in ArcMap, the beach area where the leatherback turtles nest is approximately

4700 m2.

Figure 3.1: MSL at Grande Riviere Beach



Figure 3.2: MSL at Grande Riviere Beach (3D)

At a simulated 0.4m sea level rise above MSL (Figures 3.3 and 3.4), approximately 2060 m2 of the beach may be lost, either to inundation or beach retreat. This represents approximately 44% loss of turtle nesting habitat. Private property boundaries also are impacted.

Figure 3.3: Simulated 0.4m above MSL at Grande Riviere Beach



Figure 3.4: Simulated 0.4m above MSL at Grande Riviere Beach (3D)

Figures 3.5 and 3.6 show simulated 0.6m sea level rise above MSL. At this level, approximately 2900 m2 (or approximately 60%) of turtle nesting habitat may be lost to inundation or beach retreat. Private property boundaries continue to be impacted.





Figures 3.7 and 3.8 show simulated 0.8m sea level rise above MSL. At this level, approximately 3200 m2 (or approximately 68%) of turtle nesting habitat may be lost to inundation or beach retreat. Private property boundaries continue to be impacted. Additionally, physical infrastructure in the form of a beachfront hotel building begins to be physically impacted.





6. CONCLUSION

Among the deleterious effects of climate change, with the potential of disrupting the

socioeconomic fabric of coastal communities worldwide, are sea level rise and storm surges. All

coastal communities are at risk, but those in developing nations and especially Small Island

Developing States (SIDS) are especially vulnerable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) has projected that global sea level will rise to 0.6m or more by 2100.

Data from the questionnaire provided important information on the Grande Riviere community.

It was also found that what was considered climate change by respondents was in no way

considered to be an important issue facing T&T and even more critical is the need to increase

knowledge and awareness of the community on the issue of climate change since 36% of the

respondents have never even heard the pharse ‘climate change’. Of significance is that most of

the respondents were quite keen on knowing more about climate change and they did agree that

sea level rise would pose a serious challenge to the Grande Riviere community in the future.

Information from the questionnaire indicate that 98% of the respondents agreed that turtle

nesting in Grande Riviere had increased over the last 10-15 years. The spatial sea level rise

models determined that even the lowest scenario modelled (i.e., 0.4m rise in local mean sea



level), there could be serious physical impacts the nesting beach at Grande Riviere. This could

potentially negatively affect leatherback turtle nesting habits, which in turn could negatively

affect the socioeconomic wellbeing the community that depends upon tourism economic benefits

related to the turtles’ presence.

Although the spatial sea level rise model created represents an overlap of projected sea level rise

upon a temporal snapshot of the state of the coastal environment, it is useful as an indicator of

potential sea level rise impacts upon the natural environment and community infrastructure. The

model therefore can assist in considerations relating to hard or soft mitigation and adaptation

strategies to protect the social and economic well-being of Grande Riviere. The multidisciplinary

approach therefore, in this regard, is valid.



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