byu executive mpa budgeting and finance class economic overview november 10, 2015 · 2020-01-11 ·...

BYU Executive MPABudgeting and Finance Class

Economic OverviewNovember 10, 2015

Utah is One of the Fastest Growing

States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013

U.S. Rate = 0.7%

Source: U.S Census Bureau

Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

National Economic Conditions



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

How long will interest rates stay so low?...

It’s up to the Fed

National Job Growth Improving

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

8.7 Million Jobs Lost

12.3 Million

Jobs Recovered

Pa

yro

ll C

ha

ng

e 0

00

’s

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

National Employment Change

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Oct 2014 to Oct 2015

0.5%

1.2%

2.9%

2.9%

3.4%

1.8%

1.7%

2.0%

0.7%

3.8%

-11.9%

-14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%

Government

Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & MiningTotal: 2.0%

National Employment Change

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Seasonally Adjusted

Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Oct 2014 to Oct 2015

105

66

433

623

664

147

46

525

80

233

-108

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

U.S. Unemployment Rates Dropping

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Utah Department of Workforce Services

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

5.0% in Oct

Consumption Drives Growth

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

2012 2013 2014

Fixed Investment

Inventories

Net Exports

Government

Personal Consumption

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n t

o G

DP

Gro

wth

2015

Total GDP Growth

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Consumer Confidence is Rising, but Not Robust

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

Ap

r 2

01

2

Ma

y 2

012

Ju

n 2

012

Ju

l 2

012

Au

g 2

01

2

Sep

201

2

Oct

20

12

No

v 2

01

2

De

c 2

012

Jan

201

3

Fe

b 2

013

Ma

r 20

13

Ap

r 2

01

3

Ma

y 2

013

Ju

n 2

013

Ju

l 2

013

Au

g 2

01

3

Sep

201

3

Oct

20

13

No

v 2

01

3

De

c 2

013

Jan

201

4

Fe

b 2

014

Ma

r 20

14

Ap

r 2

01

4

Ma

y 2

014

Ju

n 2

014

Ju

l 2

014

Au

g 2

01

4

Sep

201

4

Oct

20

14

No

v 2

01

4

De

c 2

014

Jan

201

5

Fe

b 2

015

Ma

r 20

15

Ap

r 2

01

5

Ma

y 2

015

Ju

n 2

015

Ju

l 2

015

Au

g 2

01

5

Sep

t 20

15

Oct

20

15

Above 110 indicates economic prosperity

Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Growth in Consumer Spending Remains Low

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change

Producer Price Index

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.02

01

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

Year-to-Year Change

Pe

rce

nt

CPI Inflation Remains Very Low

Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Au

g 2

01

1

Fe

b 2

012

Au

g 2

01

2

Fe

b 2

013

Au

g 2

01

3

Fe

b 2

014

Au

g 2

01

4

Fe

b 2

015

Au

g 2

01

5

U.S. Monthly Wage Growth

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained 1982-1984 dollars

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

Ap

r-06

Au

g-0

6

De

c-0

6

Ap

r-07

Au

g-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ap

r-08

Au

g-0

8

De

c-0

8

Ap

r-09

Au

g-0

9

De

c-0

9

Ap

r-10

Au

g-1

0

De

c-1

0

Ap

r-11

Au

g-1

1

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-12

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-13

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-14

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-15

Au

g-1

5

2006-2015

Average

0.2%

Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession

Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Underemployment vs. Unemployment


2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment)

Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest in Over 35 Years


Note: Seasonally adjusted

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

195

0

195

5

196

0

196

5

197

0

197

5

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

201

5

Mar 2000

67.3%

Feb 1978

62.8%

Oct 2015

62.4%

%

Euro compared to U.S. Dollar

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.6020

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

USD

PARITY

$1.37

Source: Investing.com

$1.07

US Dollar Compared to Chinese YuanInverted Scale

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00

$8.50

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

2010China allows

the yuanto rise

Aug 2015China

devalues the yuanby largest amount

in 20 years

2001China joins WTO 2005

China allows

the yuanto rise

2008China

stops the yuan’s

rise

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Oil Prices Rising But Still Below Long Term Trend$

Pe

r B

arr

el

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.002

00

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

$108

$40

Source: Baker Hughes

Active U.S. Oil Rigs

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,2002

00

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

1,931

868

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Effective Fed Rate

12-month change in PCE price index

Unemployment Rate (right axis)

Fed Fund Rate, Inflation, and Unemployment

Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: PCE is total personal consumption expenditures



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

Utah Economic Conditions

Utah Population Seventh Fastest Growing in U.S.

Percent Change: 2013 to 2014U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

0.7% to 0.9% (at or above U.S. rate)

0.4% to 0.6%

1.0% or more

0.0% to 0.3%

NM

-0.1%

UT

1.4%

AZ

1.5%

CA

1.0%

NV

1.7%

OR

1.1%

TX

1.7%

OK

0.6%

CO

1.6%

WA

1.3%

ID

1.3%

MT

0.9%

WY

0.2%

ND

2.2%

SD

0.9%

MN

0.6%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.4%

WI

0.3%

IL

-0.1%IN

0.4%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.5%

TN 0.8%

KY 0.3%

MS

0.1%AL

0.3%

GA

1.0%

SC

1.3%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.7%

WV

-0.2%

PA

0.0%

NY

0.3%

ME

0.1%

AK

-0.1%

HI

0.8%

MA

0.5%

VT

0.0%

NH

0.3%

RI

0.2%

CT

-0.1%

NJ

0.3%

DE

1.1%

MD

0.6%

MI

0.1%

DC

1.5%

KS

0.3%

Source: Historical – U.S. Census Bureau; Projections - Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget

A Look at Utah’s Population

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

1900-2060

Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee, U.S. Census Bureau, State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group

Utah Components of Population Change

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

Population Change Natural Increase Net Migration

20

14

Utah PopulationGrowth Rates

By County2013 to 2014

State Average = 1.4%

Increase of 1.0% to 1.4%


Increase of 2.0% or Greater


Box Elder

1.3%

Cache

0.9%Rich

0.7%

Weber 0.9%

Tooele

1.4%

Salt Lake

1.0%

Morgan

4.0%

Summit

1.7%

Daggett -1.2%

Utah

1.6%

Wasatch

4.3% Duchesne

1.4%Uintah

3.3%

Juab

1.5%

Sanpete

0.8%

Carbon

-1.3%

Emery

-0.8% Grand

0.7%

Millard

-0.2%

Piute

-2.6%

Garfield

-0.8%

Sevier

-0.3%

Wayne

-0.3%

San Juan

1.7%

Iron

1.2%

Beaver

0.0%

Washington

2.9%Kane

0.2%

Davis 2.1%

Population Loss

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Utah’s Employment Growth HIGHEST in the Nation

Percent Change in Employment for States: Sep 2014 to Sep 2015U.S. Rate = 2.0%

Note: Seasonally Adjusted


NM

0.8%

UT

3.7%

AZ

2.2%

CA

2.8%

NV

2.8%

OR

2.8%

TX

1.9%

OK

0.2%

CO

1.7%

WA

3.1%

ID

3.1%

MT

0.6%

WY

-0.9%

ND

-1.6%

SD

1.6%

MN

1.3%

NE

0.6%

KS

0.6%

IA

1.5%

MO

0.6%

AR

1.9%

LA

0.1%

WI

1.9%

IL

0.5%IN

2.2%

OH

0.9%

FL

3.0%

TN 1.7%

KY1.8%

MS

1.1%

AL

1.6%

GA

2.0%

SC

3.2%

NC 2.6%

VA

1.0%

WV

-1.5%

PA

0.7%

NY

1.4%

ME

1.0%

AK

-0.1%

HI

1.3%

MA

2.0%

VT

0.6%

NH

0.6%

RI

0.6%

CT

1.6%

NJ

1.0%

DE

1.7%

MD

1.7%

MI

2.0%

DC

1.4%

0.9% and below

2.1% to 2.9% (at or above the U.S. rate)

1.6% to 2.0%

3.0% or more

1.0% to 1.5%

Top States for Employment GrowthSep 2014 vs. Sep 2015


Top 10 Sep 2014 Sep 2015 Ranking

1. North Dakota 50th

2. Texas 15th (tied)

3. Utah 1st

4. Nevada 6th (tied)

5. Delaware 19th (tied)

6. Colorado 19th (tied)

7. Florida 5th

8. North Carolina 9th

9. Oregon 6th (tied)

10. South Carolina 2nd

39. Idaho 3rd (tied)

Utah Total Employment at New Highs


800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f J

ob

s

Loss of 92,000 jobs

Gain of 212,000

jobs

Utah Job Growth Greater than National Average

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Year

U.S. Utah


UT Industries - Employment Gains

1.1%

0.5%

7.2%

5.7%

5.0%

3.8%

7.5%

2.3%

4.1%

6.1%

-8.1%

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining


Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: Sep 2014 to Sep 2015

Total: 3.9%

UT Industries Seeing Growth


Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: Sep 2014 to Sep 2015

2,600

200

9,300

10,000

9,300

2,900

2,500

5,900

5,000

5,000

-1,000

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

Total: 51,700

Utah EmploymentChange Rates

By CountySep 2014 toSep 2015

State Rate = 3.9%

2.0% to 3.8%

0.0% to 1.9%

6.5% or more

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Not seasonally adjusted

3.9% to 6.4%

Loss

Box Elder

5.5%

Cache

3.8% Rich

9.5%

Weber 3.7%

Tooele

1.5%

Salt Lake

3.1%

Morgan

8.3%Daggett 9.6%

Utah

6.5%

Wasatch

2.8% Duchesne

-12.4%Uintah

-8.6%

Juab

6.0%

Sanpete

4.3%

Carbon

0.7%

Emery

-6.4%Grand

3.2%

Millard

0.7%

Piute

0.5%

Garfield

2.6%

Sevier

2.5%

Wayne

7.9%

San Juan

1.3%

Iron

0.8%

Beaver

6.2%

Washington

5.1%

Kane

2.5%

Davis 4.1%

Summit

3.7%

UT Unemployment Rates Among Lowest in Nation

Sep 2015 U.S. Rate = 5.1% NH

3.4%

NM

6.8%

UT

3.6%

AZ

6.3%

CA

5.9%

NV

6.7%

OR

6.2%

TX

4.2%

OK

4.4%

CO

4.0%

WA

5.2%

ID

4.2%

MT

4.1%

WY

4.0%

ND

2.8%

SD

3.5%

MN

3.8%

NE

2.9%

KS

4.4%

IA

3.6%

MO

5.3%

AR

5.2%

LA

6.0%

WI

4.3%

IL

5.4%IN

4.5%

OH

4.5%

FL

5.2%

TN 5.7%

KY5.0%

MS

6.1%AL

6.0%

GA

5.8%

SC

5.7%

NC 5.8%

VA

4.3%

WV

7.3%

PA

5.3%

NY

5.1%

ME

4.4%

AK

6.4%

HI

3.4%

MA

4.6%

VT

3.7%

RI

5.4%

CT

5.2%

NJ

5.6%

DE

4.9%

MD

5.1%

MI

5.0%

DC

6.7%

6.1% or more

4.1% to 5.0%


4.0% or less

5.6% to 6.0%



Utah vs. U.S.Unemployment Rates

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Utah Department of Workforce Services

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

U.S. Utah

Utah Unemployment

RatesBy County

Sep 2015

State Rate = 3.6%


4.0% to 5.0%

5.1% to 7.0%

3.5% or lower

3.6% to 3.9%

7.1% or greater

Box Elder

3.6%

Cache

3.1%

Rich

3.7%

Tooele

4.0%

Morgan

3.1%

Summit

3.2%

Utah

3.2%

Wasatch

3.3% Duchesne

7.8%Uintah

7.3%

Juab

3.9%

Sanpete

4.2%

Carbon

5.9%

Emery

6.5% Grand

5.7%

Millard

3.6%

Piute

6.0%

Garfield

8.2%

Sevier

4.5%

Wayne

8.5%

San Juan

7.5%

Iron

4.4%

Beaver

3.9%

Washington

4.0%

Kane

4.4%

Daggett 4.6%

Davis 3.4%

Salt Lake

3.3%

Weber 4.0%

Consumer Price Index Wasatch Front vs. United States

Year Over Year Change

Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Sep

t 2

01

1

Mar

20

12

Sep

t 2

01

2

Mar

20

13

Sep

t 2

01

3

Mar

20

14

Sep

t 2

01

4

Mar

20

15

Sep

20

15

United States CPI

Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI

US Consumer Confidence Index vs. UT Consumer Attitude Index

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

Fe

b 2

012

Ju

n 2

012

Oct

20

12

Fe

b 2

013

Ju

n 2

013

Oct

20

13

Fe

b 2

014

Ju

n 2

014

Oct

20

14

Fe

b 2

015

Ju

n 2

015

Oct

20

15

Zions Bank Utah Consumer

Attitude Index

United States Consumer

Confidence Index

Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board and Utah CAI from Cicero Group

Above 110 indicates economic prosperity



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

Construction

Source: Moody’s Analytics

U.S. vs. UTMedian Existing Home Prices

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

$240

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Utah United States

Utah Residential Construction Activity

Source: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Bureau of Economic and Business Research

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

197

0

197

5

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

201

5f

Single-Family Units Multifamily Total

UT Value of New Construction

Source: University of Utah, David Eccles School of Business, Bureau of Economic and Business Research

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,0001

97

0

197

5

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

201

5e

Mil

lio

ns

Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total

20

16

f

e= estimate f = forecast

Second Quarter 2014U.S. 2.49%, Utah 1.06%

Utah Below National Average Foreclosure Rates


Source: Moody’s Economy.com

NM

2.92%

UT

1.06%

AZ

0.85%

CA

1.10%

NV

3.33%

OR

2.74%

TX

1.01%

CO

0.86%

WA

2.04%

ID

1.32%

MT

0.87%

WY

0.52%

ND

0.68%

SD

0.87%

MN

0.94%

NE

0.72%

KS

1.50%

IA

1.63%

MO

1.08%

WI

1.71%

IL

3.68%IN

2.54%

OH

2.88%

FL

6.91%

KY2.24%

AL

1.43%

GA

1.46%

SC

2.41%

NC 1.44%

VA

0.91%

WV

1.12%

PA

2.81%

NY

5.89%

ME

4.51%

AK

0.89%

HI

3.88

%

MA

1.95%VT

2.96%

NH

1.35%

RI

2.80%CT

3.96%

NJ

8.10%

DE

2.95%

MD

3.24%

MI

1.22%

DC

2.59%

4.00% or more

1.00% to 1.48%

1.49% to 2.48%

.99% or lower

2.49% to 3.99% (at or above national average)

AR

1.69

%

LA

2.11%

MS

1.73%

TN

1.25%OK

2.40%



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

Exports


2,981 3,134 3,221 3,506

4,542 4,119

4,731

6,067 6,801

7,815

10,306 10,337

13,809

18,968 19,256

16,111

12,266 13,017

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f

Millio

ns

of

Do

lla

rs

Utah Net International Exports

e = estimate f = forecast

Utah Exports: With and Without Gold


0

5

10

15

20

25

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Billi

on

s o

f D

oll

ars

Total Exports Primary Metals (Gold) All Other Exports



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

Other Indicators

Utah Poverty Rate Among Lowest in Nation

2013 U.S. Rate = 14.5%, 2013 Utah Rate = 10.1%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 CPS data

NM

22.9%

UT

10.1%

AZ

22.4%

CA

15.9%

NV

17.4%

OR

15.2%

TX

18.1%

OK

14.3%

CO

11.9%

WA

11.8%

ID

13.4%

MT

13.8%

WY

12.6%

ND

10.0%

SD

9.7%

MN

12.7%

NE

11.6%

KS

13.4%

IA

11.3%

MO

13.8%

AR

18.8%

LA

18.5%

WI

10.8%

IL

13.4%IN

12.3%

OH

13.3%

FL

15.7%

TN 18.2%

KY21.3%

MS

22.5%

AL

18.2%

GA

17.5%

SC

16.3%

NC 18.3%

VA

11.1%

WV

17.3%

PA

13.0%

NY

15.6%

ME

13.5%

AK

10.3%

HI

10.8%

MA

13.2

%

VT

8.5%

NH

9.5%

RI

13.9%

CT

11.2%

NJ

11.3%

DE

15.0%

MD

10.9%

MI

14.6%

DC

20.1%

10.6% to 12.0%

12.1% to 14.4%

10.5% or less


18.1% or more

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

Utah Poverty Rates Much Lower than U.S.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Pe

rce

nt

of

Po

pu

lati

on

in

Po

ve

rty

U.S. Utah

Utah Has One of Most Diverse Economies in Nation

95.8

96.5

96.6

96.7

96.9

97.2

97.5

97.5

97.6

98.4

93.0 94.0 95.0 96.0 97.0 98.0 99.0 100.0

Minnesota

Nebraska

Maine

Kansas

Georgia

Arizona

Utah

Illinois

North Carolina

Missouri

Source: DWS - Workforce Research and Analysis Division

Ten Most Diversified Economies in the Country 2012

0.7%

1.1% 1.1%

1.4%

0.9%0.8%

1.0%

0.3%

1.5%

1.1%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

UnitedStates

MountainStates

Arizona Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada NewMexico

Utah Wyoming

Average Population

Growth Rate 1.0%


Three-Year Average Annual Population Growth Rate

2011-2013

2.0%

2.4%2.3%

2.8%

1.4%

2.9%

1.3% 1.3%

3.9%

2.0%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

UnitedStates

MountainStates


Utah Wyoming

Average Annual GDP Growth Rate

2.2%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Average Annual GDP Growth Rate 2010-2013

1.6%

1.9%1.8%

2.3%

1.9%

1.6% 1.7%

0.3%

2.9%

1.0%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

UnitedStates

MountainStates


Utah Wyoming

Average Employment Growth Rate

1.7%


Average Annual Employment Growth Rate

2010-2013

Utah Economic Indicators2014 - 2016

Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.7

3.1

1.5

5.1

7.0

4.2

5.1

3.7

1.5

5.0

6.4

4.6

4.5

2.9

1.4

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

Retail Sales

Home Prices

Personal Income

Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Employment

Population

2014 2015e 2016f

e = estimate f = forecast

Economic Indicators

Indicator

Nonagricultural Employment

Nonagricultural Wages

Retail Sales

Consumer Confidence

New Automobile and Truck Sales

Housing Permits

Residential Value

Non-residential Value

Short-term Interest Rates (Federal Funds, 1-Year T-Bill)

Oil Price

U.S. Economic Growth (GDP)

World Economic Growth

Inflation

Corporate Earnings & Profit

S&P 500

Recession Slowdown Recovery Boom Bubble

General Fund

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

6/3

0/2

00

7

10

/31

/20

07

2/2

9/2

00

8

6/3

0/2

00

8

10

/31

/20

08

2/2

8/2

00

9

6/3

0/2

00

9

10

/31

/20

09

2/2

8/2

01

0

6/3

0/2

01

0

10

/31

/20

10

2/2

8/2

01

1

6/3

0/2

01

1

10

/31

/20

11

2/2

9/2

01

2

6/3

0/2

01

2

10

/31

/20

12

2/2

8/2

01

3

6/3

0/2

01

3

10

/31

/20

13

2/2

8/2

01

4

6/3

0/2

01

4

10

/31

/20

14

2/2

8/2

01

5

6/3

0/2

01

5Met

al S

ever

ance

(3

65

Day

Mo

vin

g Su

m)

Mill

ion

s

Metal Severance Tax Revenue

Metal Severance - 365 Day MA

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

6/3

0/2

00

7

11

/30

/20

07

4/3

0/2

00

8

9/3

0/2

00

8

2/2

8/2

00

9

7/3

1/2

00

9

12

/31

/20

09

5/3

1/2

01

0

10

/31

/20

10

3/3

1/2

01

1

8/3

1/2

01

1

1/3

1/2

01

2

6/3

0/2

01

2

11

/30

/20

12

4/3

0/2

01

3

9/3

0/2

01

3

2/2

8/2

01

4

7/3

1/2

01

4

12

/31

/20

14

5/3

1/2

01

5

Oil

& G

as T

ax R

even

ue

(36

5 D

ay M

ov

ing

Sum

)

Mill

ion

s

Oil & Natural Gas Tax Revenue

Oil and Gas Tax - 365 Day MA

Revenue Range FY 2016

$4,650

$4,850

$5,050

$5,250

$5,450

$5,650

$5,850

$6,050

$6,250

FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

In M

illi

on

sGeneral Fund/Education Fund, 2012 to 2016

Actual FY 2016 High FY 2016 Low FY 2016 Forecast

Robert Spendlove

Economic and Public Policy Officer

Email:

[email protected]

Phone: 801-560-5394Presentations are offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Presentations may contain

trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with Zions Bank. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and Zions Bank does not claim any ownership of or make

representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks.

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