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When jeopardy is a risk worth taking How the Oscars can redefine our understanding of risk by Stuart Barr, MBA Candidate 2016/17, Judge Business School

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WhenjeopardyisariskworthtakingHowtheOscarscanredefineourunderstandingofrisk

byStuartBarr,MBACandidate2016/17,JudgeBusinessSchool

2017 Cambridge - McKinsey Risk Prize

Bio-sketch and Photo Page

Student Name: Stuart Barr

Email contact: [email protected]

Title of Submission:

When Jeopardy is a Risk Worth Taking:

How the Oscars can redefine our understanding of risk

I am a candidate for the degree:

______MBA___________________________________

After a 19-year career as a conductor and music producer, Stuart Barr is studying for an MBA Degree at the Judge Business School. Undertaking the unique Culture, Arts & Media Concentration, he is planning to transition into the management side of the music industry, with the ambition of running a major international arts or entertainments organisation. As a musical director at the intersection of classical and popular music, he has been guest conductor to many distinguished orchestras. He was Dame Shirley Bassey’s musical director from 2009-2015, including all her performances worldwide from the Oscars to the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee Concert. He also produced her farewell album, Hello Like Before with the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra at Abbey Road Studios for Sony. He is the present Chairman of the London Youth Choir, and a previous President of the British Voice Association.

2017 Cambridge - McKinsey Risk Prize

Declaration Form

Student Name: ______Stuart Barr

Email contact: [email protected]

Title of Submission: ____When Jeopardy is a Risk Worth Taking:

How the Oscars can redefine our understanding of risk

_________________________________________________________

Number of words of submission: ___3704______________________

I am a candidate for the degree: ____MBA_____________________

Academic Institution/Department: _____Judge Business School

Declaration I confirm that this piece of work is my own and does not violate the University of Cambridge Judge Business School’s guidelines on Plagiarism. I agree that my submission will be available as an internal document for members of both Cambridge Judge Business School and McKinsey & Co’s Global Risk Practice. If my submission either wins or receives an honourable mention for the Risk Prize, then I agree that (a) I will be present at the award presentation ceremony 23 June 2017, (b) my submission can be made public on a Cambridge Judge Business School and/or McKinsey & Co websites. This submission on risk management does not exceed 10 pages.

Signed (Electronic Signature)

2

WhenjeopardyisariskworthtakingHowtheOscarscanredefineourunderstandingofrisk

byStuartBarr,MBACandidate2016/17,JudgeBusinessSchool

“Everyonepre-recordsandthenlip-synchswhenperformingattheOscars.Everyone.Tooriskyotherwise…”saidMichaelSeligman,producerofthe85thAcademyAwards.Iretorted“Wealwaysperformlive.DameShirleyBasseyneverlip-synchsperformances:shelivesandbreatheslivemusic.

Shewon’tdoitunlessweperformlive”.1

DameShirleyBasseyisoneofthemostindeliblevoicesinBritishpopularmusic

(BroadwayMusicWorld,2014),withher37studioalbumsmakingover135msales(BBC,

2017),makingherthebest-sellingBritishfemaleartisteofalltime.Asanindicationofjust

howcentralsheisto20thCenturyBritishpopularculture,shehastheuniquedistinctionof

havingoriginatedmoreJamesBondfilmtitlesongsthananyotherartiste(Goldfinger,DiamondsAreForeverandMoonraker).

Itwasthusappropriatethatthe2013AcademyAwards(the“Oscars”)shouldinvite

Basseytoperform“Goldfinger”attheclimaxoftheJamesBond50thAnniversarysequence.

Broadcastlivetoanaudienceofover40mviewers(Patten,2013),aperformanceatthe

Oscarscomeswithbigreward,butalsoimmenserisk:abadperformancecoulddenta

career,andtarnishtheimageoftheOscarsthemselves.Itisthusunderstandablethatthe

producerwouldwishtominimiseriskbytellingartistesandtheorchestratopre-recordand

lip-synch.However,Basseyisanold-schoolperformerwhorequiresthejeopardyoflive

performancetocreatehersearingintensity.WhowastheproduceroftheOscarstotell

someonewho’dperformedlivethousandsoftimesthathisriskasaproduceroutweighed

herneedforjeopardy?

Academicliteraturetreatsriskalmostexclusivelyasanegativeconcept,tobemitigated.

Thisessayassertsthatthisone-sidedorthodoxyleadstoanincompletepictureofrisk,and

seekstochartnewterritorybyinvestigatingitsupside,throughtheeyesofperformers

requiring“jeopardy”toperformattheirbest;andthebalanceneedingtobemadewith

traditionalrisk-mitigation.

IttakesasitscentralnarrativetheclashbetweenjeopardyandriskattheOscars.A

battleofbusinessriskagainstartisticneed.ThetoughHollywoodmogulagainsttheDiva

fromTigerBay,bothintheirseventhdecadeofshowbusiness.Whowouldwin?

1TheauthorwasMusicalDirectortoDameShirleyBasseyfrom2009-2015,andconducted

her2013Oscarsperformance.Thisessayisanethnographicstudyoftheriskcultureatthe

Oscars,asseenthroughtheeyesoftheconductor.

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TheOscarsculture–andmimingTheannualawardsexisttohonourthehighestcinematicachievementin24categories,

rangingfromBestPicturethroughBestActor/Actressthroughtotechnicalcategoriessuch

asBestMakeupandHairstyling.PerfectionisthustheessenceoftheOscars.Assuch,it

wouldbeofnosurprisethat“perfection”duringtheceremonyitselfwouldbeexpected.

Theverynatureofcinemaistocreatetheillusionofaheightenedrealityoutofaseriesof

cut-togetherpiecesofacting,frequentlyre-voicedbytheactorslater:themagicofcinema.

WiththenotableexceptionofLesMisérables,wheretheactorssingingwasrecordedonset,Hollywoodmusicalsarealwaysoverdubbed.InthegoldenageofHollywood,blockbusters

evenemployed“ghostsingers”suchasMarniNixontobethescreenvoiceofAudrey

Hepburn,SophiaLoren,NatalieWoodandevensomeofMarilynMonroe(Nixon&Cole,

2006).TheoriginalcastrecordingsofTheKingandI,MyFairLadyandWestSideStoryevengavestarcredittotheactor,despitetheirvoiceneverappearingonthealbum.Thus,

embeddedinthecultureofHollywood,technicalperfectionwasmoreimportantthan

authenticityofprocess.Audienceswereusedtothis,sowhywoulda“live”performanceat

theOscarsbeanydifferent?

Figure1DolbyTheatre,Hollywood,OscarsCeremony

TheceremonyTheceremonytakesplaceintheHollywood’s3,400seaterDolbyTheatrewithanaudience

madeupofawardnominees,andmembersoftheAcademyofMotionPictureArtsand

Sciences.The2013awardswerehostedbytheactorSethMacFarlane,whonotonlydidthe

continuity,butalsosangandperformedincomicsketches.Eachawardsequenceconsistsof

amontageofclipsfromeachnominatedfilm,theannouncementofthewinnerandtheir

acceptancespeech.Timeistightlycontrolled,andthehostscutoffspeechesthatgoover-

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time.Therearealsoseveralsequenceswhichpaytributetotheartofcinemaingeneral.In

2013,aswellasBasseyandtheBond50thanniversarysequence,therewerelive[sic]

performancesfromtheLesMisérablescast,Adele(Skyfall),BarbraStreisand(TheWayWeWere),JenniferHudson(Dreamgirls)andCatherineZetaJones(Chicago).ApartfromBassey,

allperformanceshadsomepre-recordedelementsinthem,orwerefullylip-synched.

Theorchestra WhilstanorchestraisanimportantpartoftheOscarsshowforbothceremonial

musicandaccompanyingperformances,itisnolongerintheDolbytheatrebutinCapitol

Studios:1mileaway,andconnectedbyaudioandvideolinks.Althoughtheprimarycause

ofthiswasdowntothespacelimitationsoftheDolbytheatre,italsoofferstheadvantage

thatperformerscaneasierpre-recordperformances.Iftheorchestrawereinthe“pit”,it

wouldbetoonoticeableforthemtomimealongtoarecording.Alternatively,themiming

singercouldpre-recordtheirvocalstobebroadcastoverthetopofliveaccompaniment,but

inthiscasetheorchestraneedtowearheadphoneswithaclick-trackintheirears(apre-

recordedclickintimewiththesinger’sperformance).

Theriskinvolvedinhavingtheorchestrainaseparatelocationisbothtechnicaland

artistic.Itreliesupondatalinksbetweenthelocationswhichhaveextremelylowlatency

(timelag).Inthecaseofadatalinkgoingdown,therewouldbenomusic.Artistryisalso

affectedbecausethemusiciansandperformerslosethedirectsenseofeachother.The

relationshipbetweenconductorandsingerissymbiotic:asupremeteamofthesinger

followingtheconductor’sbeats,buttheconductorreadingthesinger’sbodylanguageto

anticipatewheretheperformanceisgoing.Thus,havingtheorchestrainaseparatelocation

bringsrisktothisrelationship.

ThelivebroadcastTheshowisbroadcastlivetoanestimated40millionviewers,withdelayedbroadcast

internationallytomanymore.Thetechnicalconsiderationsofalivebroadcastarecomplex,

becauseitinvolvesdeliveringalivefeedtomanydifferentbroadcasterssimultaneously,

eachofwhomruntheirownadverts.Thus,thereneedstobecontinuitymaterialprovided

inthetheatreateveryadvertthatlastsexactlytherightamountoftimetomakethe

junctionwiththeendoftheadverts.Rehearsalisthusessentialtosmoothoperations.

Whywouldaperformerwanttoperformlive?

“Whathappensifshegoeswrong?”saidSeligman.Ireplied“Maybeit’sthejeopardyofpossiblygoingwrongthatmakestheperformancesoexhilarating…It’slikewalkingatightrope.Whichismoreexciting:20

centimetresor20metreshigh?”

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FromBassey’spointofview,lookingafoolonstagewouldbeamajorreputationaldisaster.

Thismightbebyforgettingwords,orsingingoutoftuneortime.Giventhecareerriskthat

involves,whywouldaperformerrunthatrisk?

Toanswerthis,it’snecessarytodefinefeaturesoflivemusicalperformancethatare

atstake.Iarguethatthefinestmusicalperformancesrequiretheperformertobeinastate

of“flow”.ThistermistakenfromthepsychologyworkofNakamuraandCsikszentmihályi

(2001).Csikszentmihályi’sdefinitionofsixprerequisitesforthestateofflow(1990)translate

excellentlytomusicalperformance:

1. Intenseandfocusedconcentrationonthepresentmoment

2. Mergingofactionandawareness

3. Alossofreflectiveself-consciousness

4. Asenseofpersonalcontroloragencyoverthesituationoractivity

5. Adistortionoftemporalexperience,one'ssubjectiveexperienceoftimeisaltered

6. Experienceoftheactivityasintrinsicallyrewarding

However,themissinglinkintheaboveisadrenaline.Buckley’sworkontheexperienceof

extremesports(e.g.2012)proposesastateof“rush”.Iarguethatthisamalgamationofflow

andadrenalinisaveryappropriatedescriptionofhowliveperformanceisexperiencedby

themusician.Itisanelevatedstate.Buckley’sdescriptionofitasbeingthe“peak”

experienceintermsofMaslow’shierarchyisveryapt.Crucially,hearguesthatextreme

sportsparticipantstakepartfortherushratherthantherisk.Idefinethisasloving

jeopardy:theveryqualitythatBasseylikes.

Iftheperformerlikestherush,whatabouttheaudience’sexperience?

Thefirstupsideofliveperformanceisthatitaddsanauthenticexhilarationtothe

performance(Cleveland,2016).Authenticityisimportanttoaudiences.Theygotosee

humanbeingsperform,notautomata.Therearetwoclearbenefits:spontaneity,and

adrenalin-fuelledemotionalenhancement.

“Evenifshesingslive,wewantyoutopre-recordtheorchestra.Weneedyoutodoitatthesamespeedsothatweknowhowlongtilltheadverts”saidproducerMichaelSeligman.“Wecan’t,”Isaid.“Shecontrolsthetempoandherpauses.Icreatethetempobyreadingherperformance.

Sometimesshe’llpause,sometimeswe’llaccelerate.Everytimeisdifferent.That’swhyshe’ssocompelling.”

SpontaneitySpontaneityinperformancecantakemanyforms.Improvisationinpopularmusic

rangesfromentirelyextemporisedmelodiesinjazz,throughmelismaticembellishmentsin

gospel,totheminutiaeofphrasingtimingcommontosingersacrossmanygenres.Bassey’s

sourceofspontaneityisthelatter,withvaryingdramaticpausesbuiltintosongs,andlong

notesheldfordifferingamountsoftime.AttheOscars,sheputanunexpecteddramatic

pauseon“it’sthekissofdeath…forMrGoldfinger”,momentarilysuspendingthephrase

longerthantheauthorhadeverexperienced,requiringtheorchestratopause.Bose(2005)

notedthatadrenalinecausesmusicianstotakeunexpectedrisks,whichaccordswithwhat

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happenedattheendoftheperformance.Asthesongbuilttoitsclimax,weboth

spontaneouslyacceleratedtoincreasethemusicaltensionfurther,withouteverhaving

rehearseditlikethatbefore.

Sometimesspontaneitycanbederivedfromtheaudience.Ihaveexperienced

several“showstopping”momentswithBassey:whereshebegananintroduction,butthe

audienceapplaudedsowildlythattheperformancecouldnotcontinueuntiltheovation

subsided.Itisastrangemomentofpowertransfer,wherecontroloftheperformance

momentarilytransfersfromperformertoaudience.Theconductorrespondsbygettingthe

musicianstoeitherrepeataphraseorpauseuntiltheaudienceisreadyforhertocontinue.

InthecaseoftheOscars,theovationatBassey’sentrancerequiredtheintroductoryfanfare

toberepeateduntilshecouldstartsinging.

Noneofthisspontaneitywouldhavebeenpossiblewithlip-syncingororchestral

pre-recording.

Adrenaline-fuelledemotionalenhancementWehaveevolvedtosecreteadrenalinintimesofdanger,whichenablespeakperformance

usingthe“fightorflightsyndrome”(Cannon,1932).Performinginfrontofaudiences

stimulatesthebody’sproductioninthesameway(Albulescu,2009).Aswithriskstudies,

researchintoadrenalineandperformanceinvariablyinvestigatesthenegativesideofit,

hencethemoreexperientialanalysisbelow.

Fromasinger’spointofview,themostsignificantphysiologicaleffectsofadrenaline

aretheraisingofheartandbreathingrates,andmechanismsthatallowthebodytouse

musclesmoreeffectively.However,Iarguethatitisadrenaline’semotionaleffectsthat

havethemostimpactupontheaudience.Albulescu(ibid)rightlysuggeststhatitisoneof

thekeyingredientsthatgivesmusicianstheupperedge.Cleveland(2016)refersto

performanceintermsofariskthataddsan“authenticexhilaration”.Authentically

expressingfeelingsisanimportantpartofpopmusic(Dolfsma,1999),particularlyina

singerrenownedfortheemotionalintensityofherperformances.Heightenedemotions

matterbecausehersongsareinvariablyaboutthedramaoflove,life,death,betrayaland

possession.

McAllister(2012,p.6)framesthisauthenticitythroughthelensofvulnerability:an

understandablequalityforsomeoneperforminginfrontofthousandsofpeople.Combining

honestvulnerabilityandadrenalinecreatesgreatenergy,“addingintensityandelectricityto

themusic”.Sherightlynotesthatitisthepossibilityofunplannedevents,mistakes,oreven

memoryslipsthatestablishesaconnectionbetweentheaudienceandvulnerable

performer.Theapparentlyparadoxicalqualitiesofvulnerabilityandstrengthareanoted

featureinBassey’sperformances(Burgess,1998,p.1).Giventhatitisadrenalinethatfuels

thesequalities,itisofnosurprisethatperforminglivewouldshowheratherbest.

Goldstein(2006)describesadrenalineasintensifyingemotionalexperiencesandincreasing

anti-fatigueandenergisingeffects.Beingabletoharnessadrenalinecouldbeonereason

whyBasseyisstillperforminginher80’s.

Isthereisriskinhavingtoomuchadrenaline?Tounderstandthis,McAllister(2012)

referstoadrenalininmusicascreatingastateofanticipationoractivation(p.42).This

equatestothescientificterm“arousal”:atermnecessarytoexaminetheYerkes-Dodson

hypothesis(1908).Workingwithmice,theyinvestigatedthelinkbetweenarousaland(task)

performance,suchthatperformancesincreasesinlinewitharousal,butonlyuptoapoint.

Afterthis,performancedecreases,creatinganinvertedU-shape,suggestingthat

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performancenearthetopofthearousalcurvewillbetheapogee:a“moderate”levelof

arousal(p.54).Thisareaofoptimumadrenalinehasbeenresearchedinsportsscience,but

barelytouchedinmusic.McAllister(2012)suggeststhatthreevariablesimpactuponthe

curve:thepersonalityoftheperformer,thecomplexityoftheskillbeingperformed,andthe

degreeofcognitivevsmotorcomponentsinthetask.Iftheirargumenttranslatestomusic,

performersthereforewantadrenalinetoperformattheirbest,butnottoomuchofit.

Theupsideofliveperformancetotheperformeristhusimmense.Thegladiatorialchallenge

ofthesituationbringsoutthebestintheperformer,andBasseydemonstrablyrisestothat

challenge.

Whywouldaproducerliketominimiserisk?AfullriskanalysisoftheAcademyAwardsisoutsidetheboundariesofthisessay.However,

belowisananalysisoftheriskelementsmostrelevanttoperformancerisk.Unlikeaprofit-

makingcompany,themostpertinentriskissueislossofreputation.Withtheaudience

beinginvitedAcademymembersonly,therearenoticketsalesatstake.Theoperating

incomeislargelyderivedthroughsellingthetelevisionrights.Inturn,thisisfundedby

advertising.Anyreputationallosswouldthusnotimpactimmediately,butwoulddevalue

futuretelevisionrights.Ifitdrawsfeweraudience,thelessadvertiserswillpayforadvert

slots,andthelesstheOscarscanchargefortherights.

Withreputationbeingthekeyriskchallenge,anythingthatdetractsfromthemost

spectacularHollywoodshowinexistencewouldbeariskfactor.Factorsmightincludethe:

• calibreofliveperformances

• calibreofthehost’sperformances

• entertainingnatureofthescript

• overallslicknessoftheshow

• visualdesign

Weareconcernedhereonlywiththeriskfromthesinger’sperformance.Thus,wecan

identifythefollowingrisks(indescendingorderofmagnitude):

1.RiskofcatastrophiclossofcontentWiththeorchestrabeinginonemileawayinCapitolStudios,akeyconcernisthedatalink

betweenthevenues:thus,thepathwayisduplicatedforbackuppurposes.Otherevents

couldalsobreakthetransmission.Whilstapoweroutagecouldbemitigatedbybackup

powersupply,thecomplexitiesofthesoundequipmentset-upinthestudiomeansthatitis

notpossibletoduplicatethemicrophonesandmixingdesk.Shouldthisdeskfail,thenthere

wouldbenoquickreplacementsolution.Afurtherriskisthatdatalinkbetweenstudioand

theatrecouldgodown.Tomitigatethisrisk,thedatapathwayisduplicatedtoprovide

redundancy.Hadeitherofthesecatastrophicfailureshappened,thenBasseywouldhave

potentiallybeenmaroonedonstageandtheshowstopped,whichwouldhavemadefront

pagenewsthenextdayforallthewrongreasons.

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2.RiskofperformererrorIfaperformerhadgonewrong/forgottentheirwords,thenthereputationofboth

performerandtheOscarswouldhavebeentarnished.Topreventthis,“autocue”is

providedonvariouslargetvscreensintheperformer’seyeline.However,thesuccessofthe

systemreliesuponhumanaccuracyoffollowingthesongtoscrollthetextattherightrate,

andtheperformerbeingabletoreadthewordsatadistance.

3.RiskofpoorperformanceAsingercanturninapoorperformancebecausetheysingoutoftune.Thisisnormally

causedbecausethesingercannothearthemselvesortheorchestrasufficiently.Thus,the

maindefenceagainstthisissufficienttechnicalrehearsaltimetogetthe“foldback”balance

right:eitherthrough“inear”radiomonitors,orspeakersonthestage.However,thisstill

reliesuponthesoundengineerhittingtherightpresetforthesong:anerrorthatafflicted

Bassey’sperformanceattheQueen’sDiamondJubileeConcertin2012.

Foralltheabovereasons,theproducer’sultimateriskminimisationstrategywouldbeto

pre-recordandlip-synchallperformances,withduplicatedplaybacksystemstoprevent

againstequipmentfailure.

CombiningriskandjeopardyBecausetheOscarsaimsforthebestpossibleshow,itmustallowartisteseverythingthey

needtocreatetheirbestpossibleperformances.Therefore,theproducermustunderstand

thattomaximisetheartisticcalibreoftheOscars,artistessuchasBasseyneedtotakerisks.

Assuch,thebestpossibleoutcomeforallpartieswouldbeabilateralframeworkthat

measuredtheupsideanddownsidesofrisk.Suchaframeworkcouldusethestandardrisk

metricsofimpactandlikelihood,butusenegativeandpositivefiguresforthetwosides.

ThedenouementInourcentralnarrative,whowonthebattle?Afterlengthydiscussionsthatweighedupthe

upsideanddownsiderisks,wepersuadedtheproducertoallowustoperformlive.

Thedayaftertheperformance,theheadlineintheLosAngelesTimesran“ShirleyBassey

savetheOscars”(Martens,2013).

Theauthorinvitesyoutojudgeforyourselfonthemeritsoftheliveperformance:

https://vimeo.com/60787311

ApplicationtootherfieldsHavingidentifiedanabsenceofstudyintotheupsidesofriskinliveperformance,more

researchclearlyneedstobecarriedoutinthisfield.Potentialapplicationsincludeother

adrenaline-fuelledareas:extremesportsandfinancialtrading.Otherareasinneedof

researchalsoincludeprofessionswherepeoplehavedeliberatelychosenprofessionsthat

involveadrenaline-fuelleddecisionmakingsuchasthemilitaryandemergencymedicine.

Hollywoodcouldthus,unintentionally,openupanewareaofstudyinrisk

management.

9

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