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tion.” Perez is eschewing media inter-views, planning to outline his plan forNike publicly June 28. Knight and otherNike officials also declined to be inter-viewed by Barron’s, citing an impendingfourth-quarter earnings release.
To ensure a smooth transition, Knight,Nike’s biggest stockholder with 92%—66million—of its Class A shares, is stayingon as chairman. In addition, managementtightened the golden handcuffs on MarkParker and Charlie Denson, the highlyregarded co-presidents of the Nikebrand, who were passed over for theCEO post. Their non-compete agree-ments were sweetened and revised. Infact, dissuading key executives from bolt-ing is one of Perez’s biggest challenges.But, even if there are some defections,Nike appears to have a deep bench.
Still, the corner-office switch has castuncertainty over Nike, as does a slow-down in Japan’s shoe market, slack econo-mies in Europe, where Nike gets about30% of its revenue, and worries about aconsumer spending slowdown in the U.S.And the dollar’s rebound against the euroalso could crimp earnings. Foreign-cur-rency gains accounted for half of fiscal2004’s 27% earnings growth.
These concerns have knocked Nikefrom its 52-week high of 92, which itreached in December. When it slumped toaround 76 in April, Rich Cervone of Put-nam Investors Fund scooped up shares.“It’s still cheap,” Cervone says of thestock, citing Nike’s “strength of brand,competitive advantage…strong return oninvested capital and cash flow.”
Now in the mid-80s, Nike fetches 17
times analysts’ fiscal 2006 earnings esti-mate of $5.03, below its historical forwardprice-earnings multiple of 21 since 1995and about in line with the S&P, despitebetter profit growth. Reebok, at its re-cent price of 42.50, sported a P/E of 11 onits expected 2006 net of $3.81 a share.
Based on 20 times his fiscal 2007 esti-mate of $5.50 and discounted cash flow,Ohmes of Banc of America sees Nike hit-ting $110 in 12-to-18 months. A big plus:Nike’s sterling balance sheet. At the endof the third quarter, the company reportedlong-term debt of $800 million and cash of$1.64 billion. The stock is also aided by anaggressive share-buyback program and a90-cent-a-share annual dividend.
Furthermore, the athletic-shoe indus-try is riding one of its strongest cycles inyears. John Horan, publisher of Glen Mills,Pa.-based magazine Sporting Goods Intelli-gence, sees the $9 billion U.S. branded-
shoe market rising 8% this year.Knight, a 67-year-old former runner,
helped found Nike in 1972 and struck mar-keting gold by inking Jordan in 1985.Nike, which went public in 1980, rode therunning craze and Jordan’s basketballbrilliance to 47% of the shoe market in1997. But inventory problems, design mis-steps and a weak shoe market later de-flated sales and earnings growth.
Nike now has a dominant 36% of theU.S. shoe market. But some analysts viewit as too dependent on the fashion-drivenshoe business, particularly its most ficklesegment—the high end—and too alooffrom retailers. Two years ago, a disputeover Foot Locker’s promotional practicesfor Nike shoes caused a costly one-yearrift between the shoemaker and the re-tailer. Under Perez, “there’ll be more ofan effort to partner up with retailers,”predicts Susquehanna analyst Shanley.
Perez has visited executives at FootLocker, Finish Line and Dick’s SportingGoods, three of Nike’s biggest retail part-ners. Generally, if vendors wished to seeKnight, they’d have to go to him.
Nike also wants to erase its image ofbeing indifferent to workplace woes inthe Third World, recently releasing a listof the factories that make its products.Such moves should increase under Perez.
Wal-Mart and Target (TGT) officials arefamiliar with Perez, a good thing as Nikeseeks to broaden its distribution of sub-brands. The shoe producer is likely to ex-pand its stable of brands through acquisi-tions, similar to its $43-million purchase ofOfficial Starter Properties last year. Smalloutfits, such as Baltimore-based and pri-vately held Under Armour, could be tar-gets. Acquisitions may also help rev upNike’s women’s apparel operation. Thecompany’s overall women’s business gener-ates about $2 billion in revenue, but someanalysts consider it an underachiever.
Cowperthwaite also views Nike as anunderachiever in controlling expenses,now equal to 30.2% of sales. She’d likePerez to push them below 29%.
Perez also must bolster Nike abroad,where growth is faster than in the U.S.One big challenge: Japan, where sales ofhigh-end sneakers are flagging. Nike’sjuiciest opportunity: China, where it hasjust a single-digit market share. Cowper-thwaite sees Nike sales in Asia ballooningto $3.2 billion in four years from $1.6 bil-lion now. If she’s right, and Perez pushesConverse, Starter and other brands ashard as he runs marathons, Nike—and itsstock—will stay way ahead of the pack. n
Under William Perez – one of only twoHispanics at the helm of a Fortune 500company – Nike wants to boost sales ofits cheaper brands while expandingthose of its premium namesake shoes.In 2003, the last year for which reliablefigures are available, Nike’s share of the$19 billion global market more thandoubled that of No. 2 Adidas.
Ticker: NKE
Recent price: $85.65
52-wk range: $68.61 - $92.43
Market value: $22.5 bil.
Fiscal year ends: May 31
Earns. per share: 2004 $3.51
2005E $4.45
2006E $5.03
2004 Revenues: $12 bil.
Price/Earns (2006E): 17.0
Debt/Capital: 12.1
Dividend yield: 1.17%
CEO Perez
NIKE BY THE NUMBERS
Nike 33%
Other Brands 28
Adidas 16
Reebok 10
New Balance 7
Puma 6
GLOBAL PACESETTERS(2003 Sales)
New Leader, New Strategy
E=Estimated Sources: Sporting Goods Intelligence; Company reports; Bloomberg
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20 B A R R O N ' S June 13, 2005
CUSTOMERSHigh Net Ultra High Total Typical Typical
Individuals Worth Net Worth Corpor- Found- Endow- Assets Account Net Worth Rank Name Firm Location (Up to $1 mil) ($1-$10 mil) ($10 mil+) ations ations ments ($ mil) ($ mil) ($ mil) Score
1. Martin Shafiroff Lehman Brothers New York u u u 20,000* 1-100 1-5,000 10.000
2. Mark Curtis Smith Barney Palo Alto, Calif. u u u u u u 9,000 10 25 9.884
3. Richard Saperstein Bear Stearns New York u u u 7,450 60 N.A. 9.767
4. Brian Pfeifler Morgan Stanley New York u u 3,000 25 50+ 9.636
5. August Cenname Merrill Lynch Columbus, Ohio u 5,100 50 100 9.521
6. Marvin McIntyre Legg Mason Wood Walker Washington u u u u u 2,500 3-10+ 5-50+ 9.517
7. Gregory Vaughan Morgan Stanley Menlo Park, Calif. u u u 3,500 20-25 50 9.318
8. Robert Coleman Morgan Stanley San Francisco u u u u 2,500 10-100 50+ 9.256
9. Jon Goldstein Smith Barney Menlo Park, Calif. u u 3,000 25+ 25+ 9.145
10. Howard Rowen Deutsche Bank Alex.Brown Los Angeles u u 1,700 25 50+ 9.082
11. Robert Dixon Morgan Stanley Menlo Park, Calif. u u u 3,000 25 + 75-100 9.011
12. Louis Chiavacci Merrill Lynch Coral Gables, Fla. u u u u 2,100 10 60-70+ 8.938
13. Drew Zager Morgan Stanley Los Angeles u u 5,700 40 100 8.805
14. Ric Edelman Edelman Financial Svcs Fairfax, Va. u u u u 2,600 0.3-1 1 8.731
15. Robert Stulberg Merrill Lynch Bloomfield Hills, Mich. u u u 2,000 5+ 5-100+ 8.650
16. Andrew Perry Deutsche Bank New York u u 2,750 10+ 25+ 8.563
17. William Gurtin Morgan Stanley Rancho Santa Fe, Calif. u 4,300 5-500 20-1,000 8.454
18. Ira Walker Morgan Stanley Red Bank, N.J. u u u 2,000 10+ 35+ 8.383
19. Paul Tramontano Smith Barney New York u u u 5,000 10 25 8.278
20. Mark Sear Merrill Lynch Los Angeles u u 2,000 25 35 8.196
21. David Hou Merrill Lynch Los Angeles u u 2,000 25 35 8.196
22. Richard Blosser Morgan Stanley Los Angeles u u u 2,000 10-100 50+ 8.094
23. Jeff Erdmann Merrill Lynch Greenwich, Conn. u u 2,500 5-50 25-70 7.962
24. Dana Jackson Smith Barney Menlo Park, Calif. u u u 2,000 5 10+ 7.901
25. Raj Sharma Merrill Lynch Boston u u u u u 3,650 10 10 7.820
26. Joseph Montgomery Wachovia Securities Williamsburg, Va. u u u u u u 6,800 3-5 5-10 7.658
27. Jim Hansberger Smith Barney Atlanta, Ga. u u u u 1,500 10-20 25-100 7.612
28. Martin Halbfinger UBS Financial Services New York u u u u u 1,400 2-50 5-100 7.559
29. John C. Korbell Smith Barney San Antonio u u u u 1,154 3-5 5-10 7.536
30. John W. Rafal Essex Financial Services Essex, Conn. u u u u u 1,400 2 3-10 7.473
31. Rebecca Rothstein Smith Barney Beverly Hills, Calif. u u u u 980 N.A. 10-700 7.417
32. Sanford Katz UBS Financial Services San Francisco u u u 1,070 15-50+ 20-100 7.378
33. Gary Ran Telemus Capital Partners Southfield, Mich. u u 1,350 1-10 10-50+ 7.327
34. Saly Glassman Merrill Lynch Blue Bell, Pa. u u u u u u 945 5 15 7.293
35. Dean Trindle Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. Cincinnati u u u 3,000 1-3+ 3-10+ 7.212
36. Mark Douglass Morgan Stanley Menlo Park, Calif. u u u u 3,000 10-25 25-50 7.121
37. Ron Carson Carson Wealth Mgmt Grp Omaha, Neb. u u u 1,012 1-5+ 3-10+ 7.084
38. Stephanie Stiefel Neuberger Berman New York u u u 815 4.5 25 7.059
39. Phil Scott Merrill Lynch Bellevue, Wash. u u u u 750 5 10 7.037
40. Bernard King UBS Financial Services St Louis u u u u 1,000 1-25 1-50 7.001
41. Peter Phelan Neuberger Berman New York u u u u u 1,089 3.6 10 6.950
42. Charles Zhang Zhang & Associates Portage, Mich. u u u u 800 2 3 6.935
43. George Dunn Smith Barney Washington u u u u 3,000 25-300 25+ 6.844
44. Thomas Buck Merrill Lynch Indianapolis u u u u u 775 2-3 3 6.831
45. Alan Whitman Morgan Stanley Pasadena, Calif. u u u 1,064 1-10+ 3-20+ 6.781
46. John Kulhavi Merrill Lynch Farmington Hills, Mich. u u u 710 0.5-3 2-5 6.762
47. Nick Bapis Morgan Stanley Salt Lake City u u u 1,800 5 10 6.697
48. Michael Johnston Smith Barney Irvine, Calif. u u 1,050 5-50+ 10-75 6.668
49. Harry Ford Legg Mason Wood Walker Baltimore u u u u u u 600 1-5 3-10 6.648
50. Walter Meranze Wachovia Securities Yardley, Penn. u u u u u 2,300 1.2 6 6.570
51. Seth Finkel Neuberger Berman New York u u u u 925 5.3 5-10 6.537
52. Lori Van Dusen Smith Barney Rochester, N.Y. u u u u u 2,700 50 20 6.452
53. Jonathan Harris Morgan Stanley San Francisco u u u u 2,500 20 20-100 6.370
54. Dana Locniskar Merrill Lynch Detroit u u 1,765 5-25 10-30 6.315
55. Thomas E. Hill Legg Mason Easton, Md. u u u 940 300 2 6.272
56. Thomas Lips UBS Financial Services Hartford, Conn. u u u u u 700 1-20 5-50 6.254
57. Steve Hefter Morgan Stanley Highland Park, Ill. u u u 900 7-15 10-500 6.223
58. Scott Thayer Smith Barney Santa Rosa, Calif. u u u u u 1,750 5-10 5-10 6.159
59. Richard Petit Morgan Stanley Menlo Park, Calif. u u 1,500 10-50+ 25+ 6.102
60. John Olson Merrill Lynch New York u u u 1,350 2-30 5-50 6.051
61. John Cooke Wachovia Securities Indianapolis u u u u u 900 1-5 2-15 6.020
62. M. Keefe Gorman Merrill Lynch Ithaca, N.Y. u u u u 6,347 1-5 1-15 5.892
63. Donald DeWees Wachovia Securities Greenville, Del. u u u u u 750 1-3 5 5.870
64. David Ellis III McDonald Financial Group Cincinnati u u u u u u 1,000 1-10 2-20 5.834
65. Michael C. Dawson UBS Financial Services Houston u u u 2,800 25+ 50-100+ 5.746
66. Brian E. Hahn Neuberger Berman Chicago u u u 700 7.5 25 5.728
The Top 100Here are America's best financial advisers from the brokerage industry, as identified by researcher R.J. Shook, author of the Winner's Circle books. The brokers, he says, followthe industry's best practices and have the biggest books of business. The scoring system assigns a value of 10 to the top broker; the other scores are calculated by comparingeach broker with the No. 1 finisher in terms of assets, revenue, customer satisfaction and other factors. Total assets include those at the adviser’s firm and held elsewhere butoverseen by the adviser. The scoring gives less weight to institutional assets.
June 13, 2005 B A R R O N ' S 29
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June 13, 2005 B A R R O N ' S 19
67. William J. Sullivan UBS Financial Services Boston u u 700 5 25 5.709
68. Larry Palmer Smith Barney Los Angeles u u u u u 1,000 5 10+ 5.673
69. Gregory Hurlbrink Legg Mason Wood Walker Baltimore u u u u 711 2-3 5-10 5.654
70. Dan Osborne Banc of Amer Invest Svcs San Francisco u u u 1,750 5 10 5.590
71. David Novelli Smith Barney Houston u u u u 980 3.5 10 5.555
72. Kevin Myeroff NCA Financial Planners Cleveland u u 625 1.5 3 5.542
73. James Snyder Legg Mason Wood Walker Bowie, Md. u u u 620 0.5-2 1-3 5.530
74. Mark Pollard Merrill Lynch Plainsboro, N.J. u u u u 1,800 2.5-15 3.5-20 5.464
75. Alan Leist Cadaret Grant Utica, N.Y. u u u u u u 725 1.2 5 5.444
76. James McCabe Wells Fargo Investments Beverly Hills, Calif. u u u 1,027 5 5+ 5.407
77. Peter Eckerline Merrill Lynch Wayzata, Minn. u u u u 610 1-15 2-20 5.395
78. Sharon Oberlander Merrill Lynch Chicago u u u u 600 2+ 3-5 5.385
79. Scott Magnesen Morgan Stanley Oak Brook, Ill. u u u u 1,200 0.5-1.5 1-2 5.339
80. Patricia Bell Merrill Lynch Short Hills, N.J. u u u 513 1-10 5-10 5.337
81. Ken Van Wagenen Wells Fargo Investments Los Angeles u u u u u u 1,100 3+ 10+ 5.296
82. Alan Jusko Wachovia Securities New York u u u u 720 0.75 1 5.275
83. Richard Szelc Neuberger Berman Dallas u u u 610 8 15 5.228
84. Timothy Kneen Smith Barney Englewood, Colo. u u u u u 1,000 10 15 5.228
85. Michael Swenson Piper Jaffray Wayzata, Minn. u u u u 1,058 2-20 5-100+ 5.189
86. James Minchello Smith Barney Boston u u 2,087 5-20 10 5.114
87. Charlie Graham Legg Mason Gaithersburg, Md. u u u u 650 0.5-1.5 1-3+ 5.112
88. Steve Spence UBS Financial Services Portland, Ore. u u u u u u 600 1.5 5 5.091
89. Jeffrey Cohen Lincoln Sagemark Tarrytown, N.Y. u u 700 2.5-5+ 10+ 5.073
90. Larry Boggs Wachovia Securities Cumberland, Md. u u u 650 1-3 1-5 5.058
91. Mary Deatherage Smith Barney Little Falls, N.J. u u 675 2-10+ 10+ 5.044
92. Meg Green Meg Green & Associates North Miami Beach, Fla. u u u 640 1-3+ 2-10 5.028
93. Scott Tiras Amer Express Finl Adv Houston u u u 600 1-3 2-5 5.017
94. Todd Feltz Linsco/Private Ledger Omaha, Neb. u u u 543 0.75-1.5 1.5-5 5.012
95. Nadia Cavner USBancorp Springfield, Mo. u u 530 1+ 1-3+ 5.007
96. Alexandra Armstrong Armstrong, Fleming & Moore Washington u u u 571 1-3 3-6 4.999
97. Kay Shirley Financial Development Atlanta u u 516 0.35-0.5 2 4.996
98. Ronald Weiner RDM Financial Group Westport, Conn. u u N.A. 1-5+ 2-6+ 4.976
99. Jim Wohlgemuth Deutsche Bank Alex.Brown Washington u u u 655 5-10 10-25+ 4.961
100. William Grové McDonald Investments Columbus, Ohio u u u 513 0.8-1.5 2.5-3.5 4.958
*Estimate by R.J. Shook FFoorr mmoorree iinnffoorrmmaattiioonn oonn WWiinnnneerr’’ss CCiirrccllee aanndd tthhee rraannkkiinngg mmeetthhooddoollooggyy,, ggoo ttoo wwwwww..wwiinnnneerrsscciirrcclleenneett..ccoomm Source: R.J. Shook of the Winner’s Circle Organization
CUSTOMERSHigh Net Ultra High Total Typical Typical
Individuals Worth Net Worth Corpor- Found- Endow- Assets Account Net Worth Rank Name Firm Location (Up to $1 mil) ($1-$10 mil) ($10 mil+) ations ations ments ($ mil) ($ mil) ($ mil) Score
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30 B A R R O N ' S June 13, 2005