"HUMAN CAPITAL, INVESTMENT AND MIGRATIONIN AN INTEGRATED EUROPE"

by

Michael BURDA*and

Charles WYPLOSZ**

N° 9I/52/EP

Associate Professor of Economics, INSEAD, Boulevard de Constance,Fontainebleau 77305 Cedex, France.

** Professor of Economics, INSEAD, Boulevard de Constance,Fontainebleau 77305 Cedex, France.

Printed at INSEAD,Fontainebleau, France.

HUMAN CAPITAL, INVESTMENT AND MIGRATION IN AN INTEGRATED EUROPE

Michael BurdaINSEAD and CEPR

Charles Wyplosz

DELTA, INSEAD and CEPR

September 1991

Abstract

The short and longer term regional consequences of migration forEuropean aggregate supply are examined in a simple model in whichhuman capital enters the production function externally. Theplanner chooses a reallocation of population across East and Westthat cannot be replicated by the market without taxes orsubsidies. The market solution in this model with free migrationis always associated with an efficiency loss, and might lead tothe "Mezzogiorno syndrome" in the East.

This work is part of the CEPR project on Economic Transition inEastern En-rope. Financial support from the Ford Foundation (grantno 910-03'82 and the SPES programme of the Commission of theEuropean :ommunities (Grant no E/90100033/PRO) is gratefullyacknowledgec

1. Introduction

The importance of migration in shaping the economic future of

the continent is easily overlooked. Yet, massive population flows

have already occurred. By the end of 1991, roughly 57. of the

ex-GDR population and 107. of the labor force will have migrated

west. In 1990 1.3 million Eastern Europeans have also moved west.

A key aspect of migration will be its effect on the composition

and quality of labor forces in the two regions. This raises issues

concerning dynamic depletion of human capital that was

controversial in the development literature many decades ago.1

This paper highlights some implications of migration for European

capital formation and aggregate supply in a full employment model.

We do not consider such important factors as private and social

costs of migration, labor market imperfections, and externalities

in capital formation. 2 The consequences for savings and

intergenerational welfare are ignored, so that the world rate of

interest is taken as given and welfare comparisons of various

policies are made solely with respect to productive efficiency.

2. A Model with Labor Heterogeneity and Human Capital

East and West begin with a fixed and equal labor endowment

normalized at unity for each region. A single good can be produced

in either region for either consumption or investment, according

1See Myrdal (1957) and Romans (1964).

2For a survey of these issues see Burda and Wyplosz (1991).

1

to the common technology

(1) Y = HIF(K,E) with 0<7<1.

where F exhibits constant returns to scale in the capital stock K

and resident employment L, and is assumed to obey the Inada

conditions. If L i denotes the residents of region i who actually

- -remain in region i, then LW ELW +1-LE and LE ELE +1-LW represent

actual employment in the West and East respectively. Following

Lucas (1988, 1990), H measures the region's average human capital

and enters the production function as an externality not

appropriable by any particular firm or worker but available to all

of them. 3 We assume here that workers' human capital takes two

values: hE in the East and hW in the West, with hW>hE. 4 Thus for

each region i=W,E and j=E,W,

(2) Hi=[h1Li+hj(1-Li)]/Li

At the outset, HE<HW and for each migrant from East to West,

--81-1E/8LE=0, but -ati /aLE = (1-1E -HW ]/LW <0; since hE is less than Hw

movement of Easterners westward decreases human capital in the

West but leaves the Eastern level unaffected.

While movement of labor is assumed to be costless, discrete

changes in the capital stock is precluded by convex costs of

adjustment: the cost of adding I new units per instant to the

existing capital stock K is 111+ 0(I/K)), with b(0)=0, h'>0, and

•ii,">0. Physical depreciation is ignored, so IZ%tV=I N'tV and Kt =It..

3 Imposing ?<1 rules out certain obvious types of path dependence

In this contex-.. Lucas (1990) estimates ? at .34.

4For a m:re discussion of this and alternative specifications, see

Burda and W-,*:::osz (1991).

2

3. The Central Planner's Solution

The social planner is introduced, visceral reactions

notwithstanding, to determine the optimum optimorum, which may or

may not be attainable as a market outcome. Discounting at constant

W Erate r, the planner chooses It ' It'

Le L t

W for tt..0 to maximize the

present discounted value of total European output

(3)

coI -rtf, I 7 ie tH ) F(K

t

.II

) - il[14.0(--1-4ti

t idt

o Kti=E ,..V,T

subject to (2), initial conditions for the capital stocks, KEo and

K o

, and their respective transition equations. Note that the

planner may allocate Westerners to the East as well as Easterners

to the West. The usual necessary conditions for an optimum for

i=W,E can be rewritten in the following intuitive form:

(Hw ) 7-1 (EwiEw ) (HE)T-I(FEA:E)

(H W ) 7 [FW - Z(FW/EW )] = (HE ) 1 1F E - r(FE/LE)].

I t0(q -1), cb' >0 where 95 1 .-70 +K

tco

It 2i rt{ i i

(7) = e (H ) FK

+ (,) dto'3

Kt

where the Lagrangian multipliers q i represent the shadow values of

an additio:-.al unit of capital in either region. 5 According to (4)

5Equations -...) and (5) derive

Iv from the two first order conditions

with respe:-. to LE and L ; (6) derive from the first orderE IV

conditions .-. ...h respect to I and I ; and (7) derive from forwardiintegration the time derivative conditions for q in East and

3

and (5), the planner reallocates Eastern and Western labor so that

the respective marginal products of human capital H and employment

L are equated in the two regions; (6) and (7) dictate the

allocation of physical investment according to its shadow value,

which is the present discounted value of present and future net

marginal products of capital.

Defining fEF(K/E,1), (4) and (5) give:

(8) rui_re_kfw, 1 0-21/7 fti(1_7)ft_kfe, i(1-20/7

which depends only on k i , the capital-labor ratios in the two

regions, and is independent of human capital levels.

It follows immediately that one solution is k E=kw, HE=Hw, and

E Wqt=q t for all t. The planner equates human capital levels in both

regions by pairing Westerners and Easterners in each region; this

determines a set of admissible combinations (LE,LW) given by

LE=1-L . The actual extent of population movement chosen is

determined by the initial gap in physical capital, WK-KE. With ko o

equated in both regions, KW >KE implies LW =K oW /kE >LE , and LW=

o o

(KW-KE)/(K +KE ) + LE = [(KW-KE )/(KW+KE )+11/2. The greater the gap,o o o o o o o o

the larger is optimal migration. A significant degree of migration

is desirable but as long as KE>0, it is never optimal in this

solution to fully depopulate the East since (07_1(E)/(KW+KE) iso o o o

bounded from above by 1. 6 After the first instant, no more

reallocation of labor takes place. Both q's jump to equal levels

West, Imposing the respective transversallty conditions.6In a mere general setting with congestion costs or costs to

moving indr..duals, this "national park" result will not hold. Theplanner wi prefer to restrain migration and possibly accelerateinvestment in Eastern Europe.

4

and decline at the same rate over time, enforcing equal investment

rates in the two regions for all t. The two regions converge to S:

and SP in Figure 1. The new common steady state capital labor

ratio is lower than in the West at the outset, since the common

value of H and the optimal capital-labor ratio is lower in both

regions.

Although kE=kw is always a solution, it may not be unique,

and others may result in a higher value of (3). If the production

function is Cobb-Douglas, the kE=kW solution is unique as long as

the wage share exceeds 7. If production is CES with elasticity of

substitution c • less than unity, a sufficient condition ruling out

multiple solutions is that the initial aggregate capital stock of

Europe be sufficiently large. ? Other solutions will imply kW>k

E

and HW>HE throughout. Under this scenario, the central planner

might actually hinder migration initially, and under some

conditions may choose a "Mezzogiorno solution" which condemns the

East to low levels of human capital and physical capital forever.

4. The Decentralized (Market) Solution

The market solution does not deliver the optimal outcome. We

assume here that workers are paid their marginal product and that

migration is costless. 8 Since HW >HE at the opening of the borders

and westward migration by Easterners does not influence H E , no

7 (1-avrWe require the function 00clati(1-7)f-f 'k) , the left or

right hand side of (8) to be strictly monotone in k, or that(1-)')f -f ' k not change signs. For CES with 0"<l there will be

W Eexactly one solution when 11( +IC 1/2 > 210• , where 0(k•)=0.

0 08

The assumr. lion that migration continues until wages are equal canbe modified to account for moving costs. See Burda and Wyplosz(1991).

5

Westerner will migrate eastward. 9 In contrast, Easterners will

migrate until the wage is equal in both regions, or

(9)

(h ) FEL=(H ) FL .

Since hE =HE <HW , it must be the case that k E>kW. The marginal

product of capital and q will be higher in the West, implying a

lower investment rate in the East. As capital accumulates more

rapidly in the West, migration will continue to enforce the

arbitrage condition (9). Relative to the planner's problem, there

is too much migration from East to West and none at all in the

other direction; in the steady state, everyone "goes west" and

Eastern Europe is depopulated. This "private Mezzogiorno solution"

is depicted as the paths to S m in Figure 1.

5. Exogenous Human Capital Formation

It is probably unreasonable to assume that East Europeans

will possess a lower level of human capital indefinitely. If the

regional transfer of human capital evolves exogenously according

• E • W wto h t = a(hW-ht ) + gh t while h t = gh the planner's solution ist t t '

identical to that of Section 3. Subject to the feasibility and

uniqueness conditions discussed above, human capital is equated

initially in both regions, after which it approaches a common

steady state value hW from below and grows at rate g.

The laissez-faire solution results in a suboptimal path only

in a dynamic sense. The adjustment path is characterized by low

9Under M07s realistic assumptions, migration from East to West

would redL:e H , since those with the highest level of human

capital woulc nave the greatest incentive to leave.

6

investment in the East and continued migration to the West. There

is a quantifiable dynamic output loss that the central planner

would have avoided. Regardless of the adjustment path, the steady

state is characterized by H W=HE so kW=kE: Europe recovers the

diagonal of its original Edgeworth box, with a common capital

labor ratio depending on the world rate of interest, the common h,

and the total European population level. The market solution

results in a lower Eastern steady state population than the

planner's optimum.

6. Policy Implications

In order for the market to attain the optimal solution,

incentives will be necessary, not only to prevent East Europeans

from migrating, but also to allow the East to profit from the

West's superior initial human capital endowment. There is clear

justification for some form of labor subsidy in the East driven by

a divergence of private and social costs of migration. The optimum

cannot be achieved by a single subsidy alone, but will require a

one-off lump sum subsidy to Westerners for migrating to the East

(or a tax on staying), combined with a one-shot tax on Easterners

for migrating (or subsidy for staying). As soon as the workers

have migrated, the resulting equalization of human capital levels

will preclude any desire to reverse migrate and the social optimum

is attained as a market outcome.

As it stands, the model does not justify a subsidy to

physical investment in the East. The distortion arises in the

labor mar,,et, because the private migration decision fails to

incorporate its external social costs. On the other hand, several

7

modifications could change this property. One interesting example

arises if external human capital were to evolve endogenously after

the opening of the border as a constant returns function of

physical and human capital according to

(10) H = G(K H i ) = H g(Kt

)t'

where KEK/H and the condition r>g-Kg' is imposed I or all K. The

social planner maximizes (3) subject to the same conditions as

before plus (10). In addition to (4), (5), and (6) the first order

conditions for an optimum now include for t=0

I 2(Ht)

7iFK + +

vtig' + q

• = q tr

Kt t

I – I I I • iz(Ht 1 f

t+ v

t(g-K

tg' ) + q

t= v

tr

co;

I ii 1 -rt 2 1 ,qo = e (H 1 ) 7F 1 + (.=) 11,' + v

tg dtt K

o Kt

03

g'vo

= ei )1t l(H i ) 7-i f dt

t t0

where hs-K/H, and v is the shadow value of an additional unit of

human capital. To the extent that physical investment has an

external benefit in human capital formation and v is positive, the

central planner will subsidize capital in both regions, but more

so in the East, since H E <Hw initially. 10

10

Although t-eyond the purview of this paper, this model has

interesting Implications for investment and education subsidies in

general.

8

7. Conclusion

It seems to be an established fact in the context of

East-West European migration that the most likely migrants are

young, educated, and mobile." This paper has analyzed some of the

theoretical ramifications of migration for aggregate supply when

human capital has an external effect on production. The optimal

solution sets migration to spread human capital across both

regions, and is not achieved by the market. These results would be

strengthened, of course, if migration involves other external

costs such as congestion.

The external effect discussed in this paper has ramifications

for endogenous growth as well. Allowing for human capital

formation along the lines of Lucas (1988) or the model sketched in

Section 6 might magnify the gap in East-West living standards,

especially if the productivity of, and the private returns from

this activity depend only on local conditions. These predictions,

especially those involving multiple equilibria, will no doubt be

sensitive to the specification of the production function and the

external effect of human capital. In any case, the impact of

several million future migrants on the economic development of

Eastern Europe should bring new evidence to bear on the role of

external human capital in the production function.

11This Is consistent with SJaastad's (1962) predictions. For

summary of the earl ier literature see Greenwood (1975), and for

review of the evidence on migration's effects on US factor markets

see Greenwoc: and McDowell (1986).

9

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LEEAST

CAPITAL

KW

KE

WEST

LABOR 4

Figure 1. The Edgeworth Box Diagram

10

1988

88/01 Michael LAWRENCE and

Spyros MAKRIDAKIS

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88/02

88/03

88/04

Spyros MAKRIDAKIS

James TEBOUL

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"De-industrialize service for quality". January

1988.

"National vs. corporate culture: implicationsfor human resource management", January

1988.

88/05 "The swinging dollar: is Europe out ofstep?", January 1988.

Charles WYPLOSZ

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distribution", January 1988.

Reinhard ANGELMAR

88/07 Ingemar DIERICKX

and Karel COOL

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88/08 Reinhard ANGELMAR

and Susan SCHNEIDER

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88/09 Bernard SINCLAIR-

DESGAGNE

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88/10 Bernard SINCLAIR-

DESGAGNE

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88/11 Bernard SINCLAIR-

DESGAGNE

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88/12 Spyros MAKRIDAKIS "Business firms and managers in the 21st

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88/13 Manfred KETS DE VRIES "Alexithymia in organizational life: the

organization man revisited", February 1988.

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1987.

88/16 Gabriel HAWAWINI "Market efficiency and equity pricing:international evidence and implications forglobal investing", March 1988.

88/17 Michael BURDA "Monopolistic competition, costs ofadjustment and the behavior of Europeanemployment", September 1987.

8R/18 Michael BURDA "Reflections on "Wait Unemployment" inEurope", November 1987, revised February

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Sumantra GHOSHAL andNinin NOHRIA

89/35

Jean DERMINE andPierre HILLION

"Two essential characteristics of retailmarkets and their economic consequences"March 1989.

"Macroeconomic policies for 1992: thetransition and after", April 1989.

"Friendship patterns and culturalattributions: the control of organizationaldiversity", April 1989.

"The interpersonal structure of decisionmaking: • social comparison approach toorganizational choice", Revised April 1989.

"The battlefield for 1992: product strengthand geographic coverage", May 1989.

"Competition and Investment in FlexibleTechnologies", May 1989.

"Intertemporal prices and the US tradebalance in durable goods", July 1989.

"Application and evaluation. of a multi-criteria decision support system for thedynamic selection of U.S. manufacturinglocations, May 1989.

"Dudes' flexibility in monopsonisticindustries", May 1989.

"Requisite lanky reran shared values:managing corporate-division relationships inthe M-Form organisation", May 1989.

"Deposit rate ceilings and the market valueof banks: The case of France 1971-1981",May 1989.

89/36 Martin KILDUFF

89/37 Manfred KETS DE VRIES

89/38 Manfred KETS DE VRIES

89/39 Robert KORAJCZYK andClaude VIALLET

89/40

Balaji CHAKRAVARTHY

89/41 B. SINCLAIR-DESGAGNEand Nathalie DIERKENS

89/42

Robert ANSON andTawfik JELASSI

89/43 Michael BURDA

89/44 Balaji CHAKRAVARTHY

and Peter LORANGE

R9/45 Rob WEITZ andArnoud DE MEYER

89/46

Marcel CORSTIENS,Carmen MATUTES andDamien NEVEN

89/47 Manfred KETS DE VRIESand Christine MEAD

89/48

Damien NEVEN andLars-Hendrik ROLLER

"A depositional approach to social networks:the case of organizational choice", May 1989.

"The organisational fool: balancing aleader's hubris", May 1989.

"The CEO blues", June 1989.

"An empirical investigation of internationalasset pricing", (Revised June 1989).

"Management systems for innovation andproductivity", June 1989.

"The strategic supply of precisions", June1989.

"A development framework for compater-supported conflict remiefiett", July 1989.

"A note ow firing coats awl severance benefitsis equilibrium unemployment", June 1989.

"Strategic adaptation ia molts-businessfines", June 1989.

"Maser* expert systems: a framework andcase study", June 1989.

"Fatty Eacouragement", July 1989.

"The global (mansion is leadership andorganization: issues and controversies", April1989.

"European integration and trade flows",August 1989.

89/49 Jean DERMINE "Home country control and mutualrecognition", July 1989. 89/62 Arnoud DE MEYER

(TM)89/50 Jean DERMINE "The specialisation of financial institutions,

the EEC model", August 1989. 89/63 Enver YUCESAN and(TM) Lee SCHRUBEN

89/51 Spyros MAKRIDAKIS "Sliding simulation: a new approach to timeseries forecasting", July 1989. 89/64 Enver YUCESAN and

(TM) Lee SCHRUBEN89/52 Arnaud DE MEYER "Shortening development cycle times: a

manufacturer's perspective", August 1989. 89/65 Soumitra DUTrA and

89/53 Spyroa MAICRIDAK1S "Why conshinh* works?", July 1989.(TM,AC, FIN)

Piero BONISSONE

89/54 S. BALAKRISHNAN "Organisation costs and a theory of joint 89/66 B. SINCLAIR-DESGAGNEand Mitchell KOZA ventures", September 1989. (TM/EP)

89/55 H. SCHU1TE "Euro-Japsome cooperation in information 89/67 Peter BOSSAERTS andtechnology", September 1989. (FIN) Pierre HILLION

89/56 Wilfried VANHONACKERand Lydia PRICE

"On the practical usefulness of meta-analysisresults", September 1989.

199089/57 Taekwon KIM,

Lars-Hendrik ROLLERand Mihkel TOMBAK

"Market growth and the diffusion ofmultiproduct technologies", September 1989. 90/01

TM/EP/ACB. SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE

89/58 Lars-Hendeik ROLLER "Strategic aspects of flexible production 90/02 Michael BURDA(EP,TM) and Mihkel TOMBAK technologies", October 1989. EP

89/59(08)

Manfred KETS DE VRIES,Daphne ZEVADI,Alain NOEL and

"Locos of control and entrepreneurship: •three-country comparative study", October1989.

90/03TM

Arnoud DE MEYER

Mihkel TOMBAK

89/60 Enver YUCESAN and "Sondatioo grayly; for design and analysis of 90/04 Gabriel HAWAWINI and(TM) Lee SCHRUBEN discrete event simulation models", October FIN/EP Eric RAIENDRA

1989.

89/61 Susan SCHNEIDER and "Interpreting and responding to strategic 90/05 Gabriel HAWAWINI and(All) Arnoud DE MEYER issues: The impact of national culture",

October 1989.FIN/EP Bertrand JACQUILLAT

"Technology strategy and international R&Doperations", October 1989.

"Equivalence of simulations: A graphapproach", November 1989.

"Complexity of simulation models: A graphtheoretic approach", November 1989.

"MARS: A mergers mad acquisitionsreasoning system", November 1989.

"On the regulation of procurement bids",November 1989.

"Markel microstructure effects ofgovenunent intenea6oe in the foreignexchange market", December 1989.

"Unavoidable Meclumisen", January 1990.

•M000porritie Competition, Costs ofAdjastmeng, sad the Behaviour of EuropeanMaaufacturing Employmeet", January 1990.

"Management of Coastsuoication inInternatioaal Research and Development",January 1990.

"The Traasformatke of the EuropeanFinancial Services Industry: FromFragmetnatioe to Integration", January 1990.

"Europe= Equity Markets: Toward 1992and Beyond", January 1990.

90/06 Gabriel HAWAWINI and "Integration of European Equity Markets:FIN/EP Eric RAJENDRA Implications of Structural Change for Key

Market Participants to and Beyond 1992",January 1990.

90/17FIN

Nathalie DIERKENS "Information Asymmetry and Equity Issues',Revised January 1990.

90/18 Wilfried VANHONACKER "Managerial Decision Rules and the90/07 Gabriel HAWAWINI "Stock Market Anomalies and the Pricing of MKT Estimation of Dynamic Sales ResponseFIN/EP Equity on the Tokyo Stock Exchange',

January 1990.Models", Revised January 1990.

90/19 Beth JONES and "The Effect of Computer Intervention and90/08TM/EP

Tawfik JELASSI andB. SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE

"Modelling with MCDSS: What aboutEthics?", January 1990.

TM Tawfik JELASSI Task Structure on Bargaining Outcome",February 1990.

90/09 Alberto GIOVANNINI "Capital Controls and International Trade 90/20 Tawfik JELASSI. 'An Introduction to Group Decision andEP/FIN and Jae WON PARK Finance", January 1990. TM Gregory KERSTEN and Negotiation Support", February 1990.

Stanley ZIONTS90/10 Joyce BRYER and "The lumped of Language Theories on DSSTM Tawfik JELASSI Dialog", January 1990. 90/21 Roy SMITH and "Reconfiguration of the Global Securities

FIN Ingo WALTER Industry in the 1990's", February 1990.90/11 Enver YUCESAN "An Overview of Frequency DomainTM Methodology for Simulation Sensitivity 90/22 Ingo WALTER 'European Financial Integration and Its

Analysis", January 1990. FIN Implications for the Linked States", February1990.

90/12 Michael BURDA "Structural Change, Unemployment BenefitsEP and High Unemployment: A U.S.-F.uropean 90/23 Damien NEVEN "EEC Integration Iowan* 1992: Some

Comparison", January 1990. EP/SM Distributional Aspects", Revised December19119

90/13 Soumitra DUTTA and 'Approximate Reasoning about TemporalTM Shashi SHEKHAR Constraints in Real rime Planning and 90/24 Lan Tyge NIELSEN "Positive Prices in CAPM", January 1990.

South", January 1990. FIN/EP

90/14TM

Albert ANGEHRN andHans-Jakob LOTH!

"Visual Interactive Modelling and IntelligentDSS: Putting Theory Into Practice", January

90/25FIN/EP

Lars Tyge NIELSEN "Existence of Emnlibrimn CAPM",January 1990.

1990.90/26 Charles KADUSHIN and "Why networking Faris: Double Birds and

90/1STM

Arnoud DE MEYER,Dirk DESCHOOLMEESTER,Rudy MOENAERT and

"The Internal Technological Renewal of ■Business Unit with a Mature Technology",January 1990.

OBJIIP Michael BRIMM the Limitations of Shadow Networks",February 1990.

Jan BARBE 90/27 Abbas FOROUGHI and "NSS Solutions to Major NegotiationTM Tawfik JELASSI Stumbling Blocks", February 1990.

90/16 Richard LEVICH and "Tax-Driven Regulatory Drag: EuropeanFIN Ingo WALTER Financial Centers in the 1990's", January 90/28 Arnoud DE MEYER "The Manufacturing Contribution to

1990. TM Innovation", February 1990.

90/40 Manfred KETS DE VRIES 'Leaden on the Couch: The case of Roberto90/29 Nathalie DIERKENS "A Discussion of Correct Measures of OR Cider, April 1990.FIN/AC Information Asymmetry", January 1990.

90/30 Lars Tyge NIELSEN "The Expected Utility of Portfolios of90/41FIN/EP

Gabriel HAWAWINI,Itzhak SWARY and

"Capital Market Reaction to theAnnotmcement of Interstate Banking

FIN/EP Assets", March 1990. 1k HWAN JANG Legislation", March 1990.

90/31 David GAUTSCHI and "What Determines U.S. Retail Margins?", 90/42 Joel STECKEL and "Cross-Validating Regression Models inMKT/EP Roger BETANCOURT February 1990. MKT Warded VANHONACKER Marketing Research', (Revised April 1990).

90/32 Srinivasan BALAK- "Information Asymmetry, Adverse Selection 90/43 Robert KORAJCZYK and "Equity Risk Prentia and the Pricing ofSM RISHNAN and

Mitchell KOZAand Joint-Ventures: Theory and Evidence",Revised, January 1990.

FIN Claude VIALLET Foreign Exchange Risk", May 1990.

90/33 Caren SIEHL, "The Role of Rites of Integration in Service 90/44 Gilles AMADO, "Organisational Change and Cultural08 David BOWEN and Delivery", March 1990. 08 Claude FAUCHEUX and Realities: Franco-American Contrasts", April

Christine PEARSON Andr4 LAURENT 1990.

90/45 Soumitra DUTTA and "Integrating Case Based and Rule Based90/34FIN/EP

Jean DERMINE "The Gains from European RankingIntegration, a Call for a Pro-Active

TM Piero BONISSONE Ressosai: The Possailiatic Connection",May 1990.

Competition Policy", April 1990.90/46 Spyros MAKRIDAKIS "Expatiation Smoothimg: The Effect of

90/35 Joe Won PARK "Changing Uncertainty and the Time- TM and Mich2le HIBON Initial Valves and LSO Faction on Post-EP Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure

of Nominal Interest Rates", December 1988.Sample Forecasting Accuracy".

Revised March 1990. 90/47 Lydia PRICE and "Improper Sampling in NaturalMKT Wilfried VANHONACKER Experiments: Limitations on the Use of

90/36 Arnoud DE MEYER "An Empirical Investigation of Meta-Analyais Reran in Rasa=TM Maaforturing Strategies in European Updating", Revised May 1990.

Industry", April 1990.90/48 Jae WON PARK "The Information II the Term Structure of

90/37TM/08/SM

William CATS-BARN. "Executive Information Systems: Developingan Approach to Open the Possibles", April

EP Interest Rates: Oat-of-Sample ForecastingPerformance", lune 1990.

1990.90/49 Soumitra DUTTA 'Approximate Reasoning by Analogy to

90/38 Wilfried VANHONACKER •Mangerial Decision Behaviour and the TM Answer Null Queries', lune 1990.MKT Estimation of Dynamic Sales Response

Models", (Revised February 1990). 90/50 Daniel COHEN and "Price and Trade Effects of Exchange RatesEP Charles WYPLOSZ Fluctuations and the Design of Policy

90/39TM

Louis LE BLANC andTawfik JELASSI

"An Evaluation and Selection Methodologyfor Expert System Shells", May 1990.

Coordination", April 1990.

90/51 Michael BURDA end "Gross Labour Market Flows in Europe: 90/63 Sumantra GHOSHAL and "Organising Competitor Analysis Systems",EP Charles WYPLOSZ Some Stylized Facts", June 1990. SM Eleanor WESTNEY August 1990

90/52 Lars Tyge NIELSEN 'The Utility of Infinite Menus", June 1990. 90/64 Sumantra GHOSHAL "Internal Differentiation and CorporateFIN SM Performance: Case of the Multinational

Corporation", August 199090/53 Michael Surds "The Consequences of German EconomicEl' and Monetary Union", June 1990. 90/65 Charles WYPLOSZ "A Note on the Real Exchange Rate Effect of

El' German Unification", August 199090/54 Damien NEVEN and "European Financial Regulation: A

Colin MEYER Framework for Policy Analysis", (Revised 90/66 Soumitra DUTTA and "Computer Support for Strategic and TacticalMay 1990). TM/SE/FIN Piero BONISSONE Planning in Mergers and Acquisitions",

September 199090/55 Michael BURDA and "Intertemporal Prices and the US TradeEP Stefan GERLACH Balance", (Revised July 1990). 90/67 Soumitra DUTTA and "Integrities Prior Cases and Expert Knowledge In

90/56 Damien NEVEN and "The Structure and Determinants of East-WestTM/SF./PIN Piero BONISSONE • Mergers and Acquisitions Reasoning System",

September 1990EP Lars-Hendrik ROLLER Trade A Preliminary Analysis of the

Manufacturing Sector", July 1990 90/68 Soumitra DUTTA "A Framework and 1111gbodology for Enhancing theTM/SE Business lapse of Artificial Intelligence

90/57 Lars Tyge NIELSEN Common Knowledge of a Multivariate Aggregate Applications", September 1990FIN/EP/ Statistic", July 1990TM 90/69 Soumitre DUTTA "A Model for Temporal Reasoning in Medical

TM Expert Systems', September 199090/511 Lan Tyge NIELSEN "Common Knowledge of Price and Expected CostFIN/EP/TM in an Oligopolistic Market", August 1990 90/70

TMAlbert ANGEHRN "'Triple C': A Meal Interactive MCDSS",

September 199090/59 Jean DERMINE and "Economies of Scale andFIN Lan-Hendrik ROLLER Scope la the French Mutual Foods (SICAV) 90/71 Philip PARKER and "Competitive Effects km Diffusion Models:

Industry*, August 1990 MKT Hubert GATIGNON Empirical Analysis", September 1990

90/60 Pen IZ and "An Interactive Group Decision Aid for 90/72 Enver YUCESAN 'Analysis of Marker Chaim Using SimulationTM Tawfik JELASSI Muldobjective Problems: An Empirical TM Graph Models', October 1990

Assessment", September 1990

90/61 Pankaj CHANDRA and *Models for the Exhaustion of Manufacturing90/73TM

Arnoud DE MEYER andKura FERDOWS

"Removing the Barriers in Manufseurine,October 1990

TM Mihkel TOMBAIC Flerilulity", August 1990

90/62 Damien NEVEN and "Pebble Policy Towards TV Broadcasting in the 90/74 Sumentra GHOSHAL and "Requisite Complexity: Orgamisiim Headquarters-EP Menno VAN DUK Netherlands", August 1990 SM Nitin NOHRIA Subsidiary Relations in MNCs", October 1990

90/75 Roger BETANCOURT and "Ile Outputs of Retail Activities: Concepts. 90/87 Las Tyge NIELSEN "Existence of Equilibrium in CAPM: FurtherMKT David GAUTSCHI Measurement and Evidence". October 1990 FIN/EP Results*, December 1990

90/76 Wilfried VANHONACKER "Masagerial Decision Behaviour and the Estimation 90/88 Susan C. SCHNEIDER and •Copwition is Organisational Analysis: Who'sMKT of Dynamic Saks Response Modets". 011/MKT Reinhard ANGELMAR Madam the Storer Revised, December 1990

Revised October 199090/89 Manfred F.R. KETS DE VRIES 'Me CEO Who Caddo'. Talk Straight and Other

90/77 Wilfried VANHONACICER 'Testing the Basch Saliva. of Saks Response to OB Take from the Board Rums." December 1990MKT Advertising: An Aggremstios-Independent

Autocorrelotion Test", October 1990 90/90 Philip PARKER 'Price Elasticity Dynamics over the AdoptionMKT Lifecyck: An Empirical Study." December 1990

90/78 Michael BURDA and "Euchre, Rate Dynamics and CurrencyEP Stefan GERLACH Unification: The Ostmark - DM Rate",

October 1990

90/79 Anil GABA •Inforencts with en Unknown Noise Level is •TM Bernoulli Process". October 1990

9080 Anil GABA and 'Using Survey Data ill Inferences about PurchaseTM Robert WINKLER Behaviour'. October 1990 1991

9081 Tawfik JELASSI 'Du Prised au Ftdur: Blau et Orientations desTM Systknes Interactifs d'Akle k la thicisios,•

October 199091/01TM/M4

Luk VAN WASSENHOVE,Leonard FORTUIN and

'Openstiomal Research Cam Dr More for Managers'Ikea They

Paul VAN BEEK January 19919082 Checks WYPLOSZ "Monetary Union and Fiscal Policy Discipline,"EP November 1990 91/02

TM/5MLuk VAN WASSENHOVE,Leonard FORTUIN and

'Operational Remands and Eavirooment."January 1991

90/83 Nathalie DIERKENS and •Isformation Asymmetry and Corporate Paul VAN BEEKFIN/TM Bernard SINCLMR-DESGAGNE Communicatim: Results of • Pilot Study,

November 1990 91/03 Pekka HIETALA and "AN Implicit Dividend Increase in Rights Issues:FIN Timo LOYTTYNIEMI Theory and Evidence, January 1991

90/84 Philip M. PARKER 'The Effect of Advertising on Price and Quality:MKT The Optometric Industry Revisited," 91/04 Lars Type NIELSEN 'Two-Find Separation. Factor Structure and

December 1990 FIN Robotism,• January 1991

90/85 Avijit GHOSH and •Optima Timing and Leonia' it Competitive 91/05 Susan SCHNEIDER "Managing Bomedaties is Organisations;MKT Vika. T1BREWALA Markets; November 1990 OR January 1991

90/86 Olivier CA DOT and 'Prudence and Success ill Politics; November 1990 91/06 Manfred KEYS DE VRIES, 'Undemanding the Leader-Strategy Interface:EP/1M Bernard SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE OR Danny MILLER and Application of the Strategic Relationship Interview

Alain NOEL Method, January 1990 (39/11, revised April 1990)

91/07 Olivier CADOT "Lending to Insolvent Countries: A ParadoxicalEP Story," January 1991 91/19

MKTVikas TIBREWALA andBruce BUCHANAN

"An Aggregate Test of Purchase Regularity",March 1991

91/08 Charles WYPLOSZ "Post-Reform East and West: CapitalEP Accumulation and the Labour Mobility 91/20 Darius SABAVALA and "Monitoring Short-Run Changes in Purchasing

Constraint," January 1991 MKT Vikas TIBREWALA Behaviour", March 1991

91/09TM

Spyros MA1CRIDAIUS "What can we Learn from Failure?", February 1991 91/21SM

Sumantra GHOSHAL,Harry KORINE and

"Intermit Communication within MNCs: TheInfluence of Formal Structure Versus Integrative

Gabriel SZULANSKI Processes", April 199191/10 Luc Van WASSENHOVE and "Integrating Scheduling with Batching andTM C. N. POTTS Lot-Sizing: A Review of Algorithms and

Complexity", February 199191/22EP

David GOOD,Lars-Hendrik ROLLER and

"EC Integration and the Structure of the Franco-American Airline Industries: Implications for

Robin SICKLES Efficiency and Welfare", April 199191/11 Luc VAN WASSENHOVE et al. "Multi-Item Lotsizing in Capacitated Multi-StageTM Serial Systems", February 1991 91/23 Spyros MAKRIDAKIS and "Exponential Smoothing: The Effect of Initial

TM Mich1Ie HIBON Values and Loss Functions on Post-Sample91/12TM

Albert ANGEHRN "Interpretative Computer Intelligence: A Linkbetween Users, Models and Methods in DSS",

February 1991

Forecasting Accuracy", April 1991 (Revision of90/46)

91/24 Louis LE BLANC and "An Empirical Assessment of Choice Models for91/13EP

Michael BURDA "Labor and Product Markets in Czechoslovakia andthe Ex-GDR: A Twin Study", February 1991

TM Tawfik JELASSI Software Evaluation and Selection", May 1991

91/25 Luk N. VAN WASSENHOVE and "Trade-Offs? What Trade-Offs?" April 199191/14 Roger BETANCOURT and "The Output of Retail Activities: French SM/TM Charles J. CORBETTMKT David GAUTSCHI Evidence, February 1991

91/26 Luk N. VAN WASSENHOVE and "Single Machine Scheduling to Minimize Total Late91/15011

Manfred F.R. KETS DE VRIES "Exploding the Myth about Rational Organisationsand Executives", March 1991

TM C.N. POTTS Work", April 1991

91/27 Nathalie DIERKENS "A Discussion of Correct Measures of Information91/16 Arnoud DE MEYER and "Factories of the Future: Executive Summary of FIN Asymmetry: The Example of Myers and MajlesTM Kasra FERDOWS et.al. the 1990 International Manufacturing Futures

Survey", March 1991Model or the Importance of the Asset Structure ofthe Finn", May 1991

91/17TM

Dirk CATTRYSSE,Roelof KUIK,Marc SALOMON and

"Heuristics for the Discrete Lotsizing and

Scheduling Problem with Setup Times", March 199191/28MKT

Philip M. PARKER "A Note on: 'Advertising and the Price and Qualityof Optometric Services', June 1991

Luk VAN WASSENHOVE 91/29 Tawfik JELASSI and "An Empirical Study of an Interactive, Session-TM Abbas FOROUGHI Oriented Computerised Negotiation Support System

91/18 C.N. POTTS and "Approximation Algorithms for Scheduling a Single (NSS)", June 1991TM Luk VAN WASSENHOVE Machine to Minimize Total Late Work",

March 1991

91/30 Wilfried R. VANHONACKER and "Using Meta-Analysis Results in Bayesian Updating:

MKT Lydia J. PRICE The Empty Cell Problem", June 1991 91/43 Sumantra GHOSHAL and "Building Transnational Capabilities: TheSM Christopher BARTLETT Management Challenge", September 1991

91/31 Rem! KABIR and "Insider Trading Restrictions and the Stock

FIN Theo VERMAELEN Market", June 1991 91/44 Sumantra GHOSHAL and "Distributed Innovation in the 'DifferentiatedSM Nitin NOHRIA Network' Multinational", September 1991

91/32 Susan C. SCHNEIDER "Organisational Sensemaking: 1992", June 1991

013 91/45 Philip M. PARKER "The Effect of Advertising on Price and Quality:MKT An Empirical Study of Eye Examinations, Sweet

91/33 Michael C. BURDA and "German Trade Unions after Unification - Third Lemons and Self-Deceivers", September 1991Michael FUNKE Degree Wage Discriminating Monopolists?",

June 1991 91/46 Philip M. PARKER "Pricing Strategies in Markets with Dynamic

MKT Elasticities", October 199191/34 Jean DERMINE "The BIS Proposal for the Measurement of Interest

FIN Rate Risk, Some Pitfalls", June 1991 91/47 Philip M. PARKER "A Study of Price Elasticity Dynamics Using

MKT Parsimonious Replacement/Multiple Purchase91/35

FINJean DERMINE "The Regulation of Financial Services in the EC,

Centralization or National Autonomy?" June 1991Diffusion Models", October 1991

91/48 H. Landis GABEL and "Managerial Incentives and Environmental91/36 Albert ANGEHRN "Supporting Multicriteria Decision Making: New F,P/TM Bernard SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE Compliance", October 1991TM Perspectives and New Systems", August 1991

91/49 Bernard SINCLAIR-DESGAGNE "The First-Order Approach to Multi-Task91/37 Ingo WALTER and "The Introduction of Universal Banking in Canada: TM Principal-Agent ProMiens", October 1991EP Hugh THOMAS An Event Study", August 1991

91/50 Luk VAN WASSENHOVE and "How Green is Your Manufacturing Strategy?"91/38 Ingo WALTER and "National and Global Competitiveness of New York SM/TM Charles CORBETT October 1991EP Anthony SAUNDERS City as a Financial Center", August 1991

91/51 Philip M. PARKER "Choosing Among Diffusion Models: Some91/39

EP

Ingo WALTER and

Anthony SAUNDERS

"Reconfiguration of Banking and Capital Markets

in Eastern Europe", August 1991

MKT Empirical Guidelines", October 1991

91/40

TM

Luk VAN WASSENHOVE,

Dirk CATTRYSSE and

"A Set Partitioning Heuristic for the Generalized

Assignment Problem", August 1991

Marc SALOMON

91/41

TM

Luk VAN WASSENHOVE,

M.Y. KOVALYOU and

"A Fully Polynomial Approximation Scheme for

Scheduling a Single Machine to Minimize Total

C.N. POTTS Weighted Late Work", August 1991

91/42 Rob R. WEITZ and "Solving A Multi-Criteria Allocation Problem:TM Tawfik JELASSI A Decision Support System Approach",

August 1991