by how much is pilot training impacting an airline´s ... · travel is safe: 1980-2001, incidents...
TRANSCRIPT
1
B Y D R . W I L L I A M C O X
C E O, M A N A G E M E N T & E X C E L L E N C EAPATS Singapore | September 3-4, 2019
By how much is pilot training impacting an airline´s financial risk & value?
The Value for Safety VfS approach
2
The financial impact of pilot training is hopelessly underrated
Suppose that every hour of high quality pilot training = $ 1 million increase in the value of an airline.
3
Monitoring airline risk levels ⁓ earthquake prediction
Monitoring the financial impact of pilot training on the safety level of an airline is like predicting the risk of an earthquake happening.
4
What are the financial impacts of pilot training?
Operating efficiency
Pilot qualification
Risk reduction
5
EASA pilot training risk impact model RAPT
Risk “index” without financial impact
RAPT training quality indicators very useful for M&E Value for Safety method
Judges the quality and thoroughness of pilot training, not really its impact of airline risk levels
6
Pilot Training
Impact on risk level of airline
$$$ impact on value of
airline
Pilot training can save an airline´s life & many human lives
7
Safety incidents are rare…
Total safety incidents since 1918 is 11,164 (B3A). Yet air travel is safe: 1980-2001, incidents were 1.22/million departures
8
…yet their financial impacts grave
Salam, Romel, 2012
9
For example…
TransAsia paid $1.2 billion to victims as a result of two safety incidents and went bankrupt in 2016.
An emergency landing by a Southwest 737 in April , 2018, with one dead passenger cost the airline $100 million (CNN 2018)
10
VALUE FOR SAFETY VfS approach
90 90.8 91.8 93 91 89 88 90.1 93 94 96 97.4
4550
5952
47 4957 60
68 67 68 68
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Impact of Pilot Training on Company Value
Company Valuein billions $
Pilot TrainingScore
11
Accidents are always the results of causal chains
12
Causal Chain Thinking: A key skill we look at
Develop CAUSAL CHAIN THINKING skills – same skill as used in playing chess; anticipating chains of causes & effects.
13
Training under duress
Train Causal Chain Thinking under more realistic conditions e.g. sleep Deprivation, cognitive overload, duress, fatigue, human skills, technical knowledge)
14
Current training approaches
Causal training approach Preventive training approach
Adjusted training
Avoid known risksTraining known
situations
Database analysis
HFACS Probability
Event
Data collection
Adjusted training
Participating pilots Event prevention
Measurement & reporting
Training impacts Applying training
Preventive skills training
Realistic trainingNASA AvSRS, REC,
OGHFA, PEAR
Amost training approaches do not develop causal chain thinking
15
Achieving your “Training Sweetspot”?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6
Training Sweetspot
Total…Total…
Highest training impact on risk, impact
Training costs
The “Training Sweetspot” is where training costs are the lowest in relation to training´s impact on risk reduction
16
Thank You & Questions
17
Serrano 93, 3E
E-29688 Madrid, Spain
www.management-rating.comwww.smart-roi.com
P r e s e n t e d b y :
Management & Excellence S.A.
© 2018 Management & Excellence SA
Powered by: