THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni

(follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ)

6/2/18

NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO Today’s 10-race card features two stakes races, both of which are part of the $500K Guaranteed Late Pick 4. It’s a tricky sequence, since the first two races are for Cal-bred/Cal-sired runners, and even though the Beholder Mile (G1) field only features six runners, there is a lot of quality to choose from. LEG 1 (R7): The first of two stakes races kicks off the Late Pick 4—this one being the 25th running of the Snow Chief, a 9-furlong turf affair restricted to Cal-bred/Cal-sired runners who are eligible for the Golden State Series. I had a very tough time with this race, since most of these runners employ the same style, and there really isn’t a lights-out finisher in the whole group. #1 TAKE THE ONE O ONE (5/2), the first Koriner runner, has to be considered based on how fast he is, but he’s a one-way train who likes to do his running on or near the lead—and there is plenty of other heat in here. He’s only tried turf once, and he had to break from the tough 12-hole at Del Mar, so it’s no surprise he weakened late. GRADE: A. #2 HARDBOOT (3/1) gets the nod as the best finisher in the race, so if he can replicate his strong closing performance in the Silky Sullivan up north at Golden Gate, he should have every chance for the victory. That said, his Santa Anita races haven’t been his best, so he’ll need to show that last race wasn’t a fluke. GRADE: A. #3 WAYA ED (4/1), the second Koriner entrant, has speed as well, and he tried to wire the field last time when facing Cal-bred $16K/N1X foes. He set a slow pace and still only finished third at 18/1. Koriner is going strong right now, but this one will have to run much faster to gun down his stablemate. GRADE: B. #4 CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (10/1) is a grinder who hasn’t won since August of last year when he broke his maiden going 5.5-furlongs in the Graduation Stakes. I thought he might go on and be a decent animal after that run, but he’s yet to recapture that glory. On the plus side, he should be fit and sitting on a good one since he’s been hooked very wide in two of his last three races. Plus, Cassidy has started to heat up, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this one finally came through with a big race. GRADE: B. #5 HIT THE SEAM (12/1) is still a maiden, and he’s yet to go two turns—two major knocks against him in here. Optimists will say that this isn’t the best renewal of the Snow Chief, but it’s still a tall order to ask a maiden to beat a bunch of horses who are at least proven around two turns. GRADE: X. #6 PSYCHO DAR (9/2) ran a decent third in the Silky Sullivan, but he was outkicked by Hardboot, so he’ll need to do better today. That said, he should get a good tracking trip behind the speed horses, and he could be sitting on a peak effort while making the third start of his form cycle. GRADE: B.

#7 HUDDLE (4/1) has blasted off from the gate the last two times and set ridiculously fast fractions, so unless he rations his speed today, he’s going to be in trouble while breaking from this outside post. He just wired maidens last time at 7/10, so he’s also facing winners today. GRADE: C. LEG 2 (R8): Today’s eighth race is another Cal-bred/Cal-sired event, this one being a Maiden Special Weight for fillies and mares contested at 6-furlongs on the main track. #1 THALIA (6/1) was 14/1 in her debut down the hill, where she was off the pace before putting in a mild late bid to run fifth. It wasn’t a bad effort, and she should move forward today, since D’Amato is pretty solid with the turf-to-dirt move. GRADE: B. #2 INTO RISSA (20/1) hasn’t been seen since last September when she was losing her sixth race in a row. She now moves into the Sherlock barn, so we’ll see if he will have her ready to run a career best after putting up some slow speed-figures last year. GRADE: X. #3 CHASIN LUCAS (8/1) debuts for Glatt, who is well below-average with his first-time starters, so the presence of bug-boy Espinoza makes me think this is a leg-stretcher for start number-two. GRADE: X. #4 LEGENDARY PARFAIT (20/1) debuts for Belvoir, who has been pretty cold with his debutantes of late. I’ll watch one. GRADE: X. #5 LEMON CRUSH (7/2) ran third at 38/1 in her first start for Palma while going 5.5-furlongs. It was a decent effort, rallying from off the pace after a slow start from the rail. It was also nice to see that she belongs at this level, since she had debuted for $50K last August. Her last race suggests she will continue to improve, and the added ground can’t hurt. GRADE: C. #6 QUEEN SHELLY ANN (6/1) debuts for Eurton, who can certainly pop every now and again. I like that she was tuning up at Los Al before Eurton brought her to Santa Anita for two spins over the track. She’s not impossible, since the ones with form aren’t anything special. GRADE: C. #7 Z Z TIGER (6/1) has a ton of early speed, so she’ll be leading the way like she always does—but her staying ability has been questionable, losing lengths in the lane in all four of her starts. It’s tough to dismiss her kind of speed, and perhaps she’ll be ready to roll after a brief freshening for a trainer who is 25 percent with the 61-180 day layoff move (as per DRF). GRADE: B. #8 PAPRIKA (5/2) looks very solid in here even though she’s been the beaten favorite now twice in a row. Those two races came down the hill going 6.5-furlongs, and she was very competitive in each one. Powell now adds blinkers to keep her focused in the lane, and I love that Desormeaux takes the call here. Expect them to stalk the pace before kicking home. GRADE: A. #9 MAGNOLIA’S HOPE (8/1) adds blinkers for her second start, and that’s a really good move for Machowsky, so I expect this gal to improve off her even debut effort when she finished second-last at 14/1. GRADE: B. #10 ROCKETANN (15/1) is coming off a year-plus layoff, so Marcia Stortz is going to have to have this gal ready—and that’s going to be tough to do off just Los Al works. That said, she does have races from last year that fit, and it’s very encouraging to see Stevens take the call, but will this 4-year-old be able to best some younger animals who are more fresh? GRADE: X. LEG 3 (R9): Today’s ninth and featured race is a neat renewal of the Beholder Mile (G1), an 8-furlong affair for fillies and mares on the main track—and wouldn’t you know it, the great Mandella has one in here to honor the name of the gal who won him so many big races. Oh, there’s also a girl named Unique Bella in here

as well! What a race—and it will be fascinating to see how it unfolds because the three big gals all like to do their running on or near the lead. Will they ruin each other’s chances and set it up for an upsetter or will one of them prevail? #1 MUNNY SPUNT (30/1) won a Grade 3 at Del Mar last year when she was put up via DQ after getting a dream pace scenario when she just clunked along in that race. She is a bit more tactical than she was in that race, so I expect Frey to have her chasing some pretty quick ladies, but they will all have to melt down for her to win. GRADE: X. #2 MOPOTISM (15/1) should get a great tracking trip, and her best work has come at today’s mile distance, so she’s not without a shot in here—it’s just that she’s not as classy as Unique Bella, who beat her soundly a few times already. That said, if Bella falters, this one could easily have a say. GRADE: C. #3 LA FORCE (GER) (20/1) doesn’t win a lot, but she tries hard and will be grinding away to the wire. Unfortunately for her, she hasn’t been able to edge pass Mopotism, and that’s going to be a problem today with even tougher gals to face. GRADE: X. #4 PARADISE WOODS (2/1) has run two monster races, but she hasn’t been able to recapture the form that saw her dominate in the Zenyatta (G1) and Santa Anita Oaks (G1). Unique Bella beat her two back, and unless this gal has a clear lead going a route of ground, she’s lacked the requisite fight in the lane. That said, she’s trained by Mandella, who had to have this race circled on his calendar since the beginning of the meet when he ran this one in the La Brea (G1) at 7-furlongs. He then ran her again at 7-furlongs in the Santa Monica (G2), so I have to think she’ll be sitting on a peak effort while stretching out today. Will it be good enough? GRADE: B. #5 VALE DORI (ARG) (4/1) isn’t as flashy as Unique Bella or Paradise Woods, but she wouldn’t trade her résumé with too many ladies in training right now, as she was an absolute win-machine last year—and even though she’s winless in her last three starts, her two defeats last year came against the amazing Stellar Wind, and her one defeat this year was clearly a prep. Do you really want to fade Baffert, who I’m sure has been pointing to this race? She also projects a great trip stalking the speedy gals to her inside and outside. GRADE: A. #6 UNIQUE BELLA (3/5) has run some dominating performances, but she’s a tough gal to ride and is often her own worst enemy. She stumbled poorly in the Apple Blossom (G1), and then was hustled into the race before weakening and finishing second. If Smith can just get her to relax a little one of these days, she could be an absolute monster the rest of the year. As it is, she has speed inside of her, so we could be looking at a hot duel that sets things up for someone else. Even though I don’t like the pace scenario for her, it’s impossible to ignore just how much raw talent this one has, and you have to love that she adores this track. GRADE: A. LEG 4 (R10): We end today’s card with a nice, competitive $40K optional-claiming/N1X contested at 6.5-furlongs down the hill. #1 VENDING MACHINE (8/1), the first Miller entrant, came off a long layoff last time and finished a weakening fifth at this level despite getting a 5-pound weight-break, which he loses today. He should be tighter this time around, but he’ll now have to break from the rail—and that’s not an easy thing to do on this course. GRADE: C. #2 HOOTIE (5/1) has always had ability, but he has a hard time settling early and has been his own worst enemy—which is why I’m intrigued that he’s trying the hill. I think Van Dyke should just give

this guy a loose rein and then let his talent take over because his route races are certainly good enough to win here, and he should be super-fit cutting back. GRADE: A. #3 BUCKYS PICK (20/1) came off a layoff last time to run an even eighth at this level at 21/1. Maybe he can move forward today with the hot-riding Franco taking the call, but this guy has had his chances, and note that the one time he won down the hill, he wired a bunch of maidens. A wire job seems unlikely today. GRADE: X. #4 SPOKANE EAGLE (10/1) is in very good form right now, but he’s been sprinting on the dirt against much weaker foes. Drysdale has been on fire lately, so if he thinks this one can stand the raise and handle the turf, then who am I to argue? Still, he’ll need a step up today. GRADE: C. #5 PASSIONATE REWARD (7/2) looked good breaking his maiden down the hill at first asking—not an easy thing to do. He came home respectably as well, suggesting there is some talent here—but now he has to face winners for a trainer who is just 7 percent with his “won-last-start” stats (according to DRF). GRADE: B. #6 INCENSED (6/1) has done decent work down the hill, so it’s surprising to me that his last race was so poor. Miller will try the blinkers today, but that’s not really a go-to move for him. Expect bug-boy Espinoza to send hard and hope for the best. There is a chance he can hang on, but it’s more likely he’ll finish underneath. GRADE: C. #7 SKELTON PASS (4/1) has done good work down the hill, but his best work has come against lesser. He needed $20K claimers to win two back after three failed attempts against allowance types. He’s a cool horse, but I’d prefer to see him against lesser. GRADE: C. #8 TINA’S EXCHANGE (3/1) has the tactical speed to keep Incensed honest while also giving himself every chance to win with a great forwardly placed trip. He just ran second at this level last time despite having to break from the rail down the hill. He draws much better today. GRADE: A. #9 TASTE’S LEGEND (12/1) broke his maiden down the hill three back, but it came against $50K foes, so it’s no surprise that he couldn’t replicate that effort in his first try at this level two back when he was sent off at 62/1. I’ve always liked this barn, and I think this one could run okay cutting back after showing speed in a mile race, but I also think this one will be better off a step or two down the class ladder. GRADE: X. SUGGESTED WAGER If we spend $83 and hit this with Unique Bella out of the sequence, it will be money very well spent. If we hit it with Unique Bella in the sequence, it could be dicey, so I’ll leave it up to you how you want to play it. If you want to stick to the MATRIX and spend less, $63 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s,” while $26 will get you all “A’s” with one “B.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/. [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX] [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX] [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX]

Keep in mind: I don’t add “Also Eligibles” to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!