by: douglas l. ducate president & ceo center for exhibition industry research
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Industry Outlook Where Are We Now and Where Will Be Tomorrow? Especially Prepared For EDPA December 2 , 2011. By: Douglas L. Ducate President & CEO Center for Exhibition Industry Research. U.S. History. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Industry Outlook Where Are We Now and Where Will Be Tomorrow?
Especially Prepared ForEDPADecember 2, 2011
By:Douglas L. DucatePresident & CEOCenter for Exhibition Industry Research
U.S. HISTORY Late 1950’s Interstate Highway system completed and
commercial introduction of the Jet airplane. 1959-Las Vegas-Rotunda + 90,000sf exhibit hall 1960-McCormick Place first large facility Real expansion in 1970’s making industry 40 years old CEIR Census identifies more than 14,000 meetings with
exhibitions held each year. 10,000 are B to B events 67% are owned by associations.
FACILITIESHOTEL TO EXHIBIT HALL
Show Room Bellman Catering Banquet Engineering Housekeeping Ambiance in Place
Concrete Material Handling Food Service Furniture Rental Utility Service Cleaning Service Ambiance Temporary
CEIR Census 2010
CEIR Census 2010 Number of U.S. exhibitions
dropped from 11,094 to 11,041 or -0.5%
Added Mexico with 722 events Total U.S., Mexico & Canada
14,541 More than 50% of all the
exhibitions held in the entire world
Average size in U.S. 47,984 NSF +25%
CEIR Census, cont’d.
2,649 or 24% of U.S. events B to C
37% of U.S. events held in exhibition/CC
44% held in hotels 67% owned by associations 33% owned by media companies
and entrepreneurs
How are weDoing Today ?
CEIR Index Report
The Reality of Where We Are CEIR Index was down a record 9
consecutive quarters Index turned positive Q3/Q4 2010 &
Q1,2 &3 2011. In 2010, five sectors had positive YoY
performance Losses in 2008-2010 combined 15%
compared to 2001/2002 loss of 5% Overall back to 2000 level Number of exhibiting companies and
NSF sold the biggest losers
CEIR INDEX 2011
Total Index Real GDP Q1 3.1 2.2
Q2 1.0 1.6
Q3 2.6 1.5
New source produced economic analysis
New approach to calculating averages using geometric method
Restated the first 10 years Established new 2009 base year Added a predictive element to
enhance projecting future performance
Where we are, cont’d
Geometric Averaging
0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25, , , , ,(2) t j t j t j t j t jTIN INSF IATT IEXH IREV
, 1, ,(1) [(1 ( ) /100]t j t j t jINSF INSF pch SNSF
(3) Mi j = f (Oj, FDj, EMj, Zj, RCE, TE)
CEIR Index for the Overall Exhibition Industry
CEIR Index for Overall Exhibition Industry with Forecast
CG Sector vs. Overall Exhibition Industry Total, Year-on-Year % Change
CEIR Index for the HM Sector
CEIR Index for the MD Sector
CEIR Index for the GV Sector
Predict Conference
Deeper recession-peak to trough 5.1% not 4.1% as earlier reported
Improvement Q1 declined in Q2 Index outperforming GDP Index slowed Q1 to Q2 Recovery varies by sector but on
average 3% a year if no further setbacks in the economy.
THE PERFORMANCE OF THE OVERALL EXHIBITION INDUSTRY IN 2011 H1 WAS IN LINE WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.
Table 1: Overall Exhibition Industry
Metric 2008 2009 2010 20112/ 2011H1 3/ 20122/ 20132/ CAGR, 2000-2010
Net Square Feet -1.4 -10.9 -2.1 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.0 -0.6Exhibitors -2.0 -10.7 -1.1 2.1 1.9 2.8 2.4 -1.3Attendees -3.2 -7.5 2.4 2.5 3.4 2.8 2.5 -0.6
Real Revenues 1/ -3.6 -9.6 -8.4 2.5 1.6 3.9 3.4 -1.2 Total -2.6 -9.7 -2.4 2.4 2.4 3.2 2.8 -0.9Note: 1/ Inflation Adjusted Revenues, adjusted by CPI for all urban consumers (CPI-U). 2/ Forecast 3/ Actual semi-annual percent change
Generation X-Ages 28-39 Generation Y-Ages 19-27 Gen X-20 million Gen Y-60 million Combined…more than the baby boomers Much greater net worth and more liberal
spending practices
THE YOUNGER GENERATIONS
Like the face to face experience to network
Consider attending a professional perquisite
See new products Find new suppliers Learn more about a product or service
they have heard or read about Browse without sales pressure
WHY THEY ATTEND
56% E-mail
19% Direct mail
25% various
HOW DO THEY GET INFORMATION?
POWER OF EXHIBITIONS
Event Messaging – What Resonates? Be genuine…authentic…DO NOT
overpromise Communicate in small bites…easy to digest Use social media CAREFULLY Schedule messages early in the day Create and promote event website Upgrade websites Measure results
POWER OF EXHIBITIONSExhibitor Advice Every visitor is important…treat with respect Don’t speculate on degree of interest Include younger workers among exhibit staff Be prepared to handle young children
(candy, play area, computer games) Interactive versus static exhibit One-on-many versus one-on-one
Questions Can the industry return to pre-2000
levels? Will companies that have reduced to
smaller spaces return to larger spaces? Will destinations cutting essential
services continue to subsidize Convention Centers?
How will destinations know when they can no longer compete?
Exhibitions are the last bastion of face-to-face marketing!
?