by development we mean by sustainable we mean …. (able to be maintained) ……managing the...
TRANSCRIPT
By sustainable we mean ….
(able to be maintained) ……managing the world’s
development in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate.
richrich poorpoorGNP PPP/personGNP PPP/person $26,320$26,320 $4,450$4,450
population (billion)population (billion) 1.21.2 5.35.3
% increase/year% increase/year 0.10.1 1.51.5
% with HIV/AIDS% with HIV/AIDS 0.50.5 1.41.4
infant mortality rateinfant mortality rate 6/10006/1000 59/100059/1000
children/womanchildren/woman 1.61.6 3.03.0
life expectancylife expectancy 7676 6565
% urban% urban 7676 4141
people/kmpeople/km22 2424 6464
Today’s divided worldToday’s divided world
Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted - displayed with country area proportional to parameter
Source: www.worldmapper.org
GDP = C + I + E + G
C = Consumer SpendingI = Investment made by industryE = Excess of Exports over
ImportsG = Government Spending
Human Development Index ° Literacy - nu. in school c/w those who should be.° Health - life expectancy° GDP - the usual measure of welfare
Add them up, normalize, range from .0 to 1.000
Norway is top rank, Niger bottom, Afghanistan next to last (2009)
US is #13, China #92, India 134, Australia #2
http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/
Gapminder
Which direction is causation?
Does improved health create wealth, ordoes wealth lead to improved health?
Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted - displayed with country area proportional to parameter
Source: www.worldmapper.org
Maybe measures that emphasize wealth are misleading
The Happy Planet Index!
GDP per capita PPP adjustedLife expectancy x Life satisfaction
Ecological footprint
Welfare has been achieved very unevenly around the world (regardless of the measure).
What governs the current global distribution of welfare?
Does geography/environment matter?
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
HDI (1980-2000)
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
HDI lowest 40%
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
Very few outliers
Output density and temperature
Nordhaus W D PNAS 2006;103:3510-3517
Output per capita and temperature
Add 1.5 billion people (3 billion is more likely) and allow the top to
continue to prosper, then closing the development
gap requires a 6-8 Fold increase in world economic
output.
BUT since the industrial revolution world economic output has increased at least
40 Fold (some say 50) and population has increased 4-5 fold.
So, on average, we are 10 times better off
than we were before the industrial revolution.
All we need to do to close the gap is achieve a:
6-8 fold increase economic
for only a 50% population increase
What’s the problem?
If the current rate of economic growth were to continue on average (forget inequalities) then by the end of the
century the world’s economic output would have increased by ??
The industrial era growth in prosperity has been very uneven (the development
discussion) and was achieved at a time when resources needed for growth were
essentially limitless relative to population.
Ample evidence now suggests that many biophysical and geophysical limits are being
approached and the ideal world development may be unattainable.
Real World
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
Per Capita Income
0 .2 .4 .6Disease Burden (Dalys)
GDP
Global disease burden (M. Bonds)
DALY=YYL+YLDYYL years of life lost; YLD years lived with disability
0
20
40
60
Latitude (Absolute Value)
0 .2 .4 .6Dalys
Latitude
Most of the the world’s chronically ill people are in the tropics
The Poverty Trap A "any self-reinforcing mechanism which
causes poverty to persist.”
In a poor country you are very likely to become ill – poverty leads to illness
Illness prevents you from working and attending school – illness leads to poverty
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
HDI (1980-2000)
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
HDI lowest 40%
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
Climate zones are controlled by the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere
Hadley cell
Ferrell cell
Polar cell
Large-scale circulation of the atmosphere “determines” our welfare
Hadley cell: poor
Ferrell cell: wealthy
Polar cell: impossible
The developing world cannot catch up to the top billion
along the pathway that got us here without very alarming consequences for the future
of the planet.
Nor can the top billion having taken one pathway to
prosperity continue along the same pathway without very alarming consequences for the future of the planet.
Is this the only way development can happen?
What is this graph telling us?
Some measure of prosperity
Som
e m
easu
re o
f u
se o
f na
tura
l cap
ital
Ideal green spot
What is this graph telling us?
Some measure of prosperity
Som
e m
easu
re o
f us
e of
nat
ural
cap
ital
What is this graph telling us?
Some measure of prosperity
Som
e m
easu
re o
f us
e of
nat
ural
cap
ital
“Are our dealings with nature sustainable? Can we expect world economic growth to continue for the foreseeable future? Should we be confident that our knowledge and skills will increase in ways that will lessen our reliance on nature despite our growing numbers and rising economic activity?”
Sir Partha Dasgupta