By Achilles G. Adamantiades, Ph. D.

2nd Hellenic Forum for Science, Technology, and Innovation

3-July-20141

Energy Policy for Energy Security

Lecture Outline

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A. Introduction and BasicsB. Energy SourcesC. Environmental ImpactsD. Climate ChangeE. Diversity of Energy SuppliersF. Diversity of Supply RoutesG. The Eastern MediterraneanH. A Few Examples - Do’s and don’tsF. Conclusions

A. Introduction and Basics

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Energy – a vital ingredient of the economyIssues of Technology, Economy,

Environment and PoliticsNecessity for a sound energy (and

economic) policyThe need to change course – priority on

energy efficiencyThis presentation will offer mostly facts and

analysis, but also some opinionsGeopolitics are an indispensable context

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Energy

Economy Politics

Environment

The Main Objectives

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To secure long-term supply of energy through:Increased domestic production, in an

environmentally sustainable wayIncreased storage, whenever possibleSecuring diversity of sources (incl. fuels,

suppliers, and routes,Participating in free commerce and free-

market practices (e.g., pricing)Introducing strong energy efficiency standards

(obtain the needed service but with minimum input)

B. Energy Sources

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Hydro resourcesRenewable energy – mainly, wind and solar

(but also, geothermal, biomass, etc.)Fossil fuels:

CoalPetroleumNatural gas

• Nuclear Fuels Hydrogen is an energy currency not a

source

World Energy Sources in Electricity Generation

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Coal 39%

Natural gas 18%

Nuclear 17%

Hydro 17%

Petroleum 8%

Renewables 4%

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Energy Density of Fuels (or energy sources)

Fuel Units Density Comments

Crude Oil MJ/l 46 Based on the higher heating value (HHV)

Natural Gas (high grade)MJ/l (atm.

Press.) 0.036 Equivalent energy density under atm. press.

LNG (at -162o C and atm press.) MJ/l 24

Based on the lower heating value (LHV); 65% that of crude oil.

CNG MJ/l 1 CNG is 2.4 times less dense than LNG Nuclear fuel (pure U-235) TJ/kg 79.5 If used in its entirety (by fission)

Nuclear fuel (enriched to 5%) TJ/kg 4

Actual fuel used in Light water reactors; comparison is nor really apt.

Lithium batteries MJ/kg 1.8

The more advanced type, used today, is still quite low but 10 times higher than old-fashioned automotive lead-acid battery.

Automotive lead-acid battery MJ/kg 0.17 Old-fashioned type.

Notes: the fuel container would be an added consideration Uranium has a density of 19.1 g/cm3 In solid metal form, near room temp.

Hydro

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Hydro resources are widely spread – particularly, in small sizes (up to 10 MW of power output)

The technology is old and well establishedMany developing countries are rich in hydro resourcesNo fuel is necessary but usually an (expensive) dam is

neededIt involves some environmental impacts (often

resisted)Can be used as a storage device (with pumped

storage, or in synergy with other energy forms)Excessive dependence on it (Brazil) can be risky

(drought)

Renewables

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Mainly solar and wind; also geothermal, biomass, wave, tidal, ocean thermal, etc. (the latter not yet practical)

In many areas they are local and abundant; they provide high energy security; in other locations, not so

Main drawback of wind and solar is their unreliability and low use factor (or plant utilization)

Costs are becoming competitive – sharp drops in recent years, mainly from Chinese competition

• Some environmental impacts are there, mainly, land use and aesthetics

Certain areas are very favorable; others not soSo far, small % of total generation -- but growingIn the long-run, we need to rely on RE for most, if

not all, energy needs

Coal

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The most abundant fossil fuelRelatively inexpensiveWidely used throughout the world (electricity

generation)(China: 75%, Poland: 80%, U.S.: 37%, Greece: about

30-35%)Coal mining is accident prone (thousands of fatalities

per yr, globally)Wide range of noxious emissions (NOx, SO2,

particulate matter, ash, heavy metals, e.g., mercury, arsenic, etc.)

A host of other problemsIn several countries, dropping use (see, recent

Obama proposed regulation—2-June-14); globally, use expected to grow (US-EIA; and OECD’s IEA)

Petroleum

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Dominant fuel; especially in transportationHigh-energy density fuel; convenientWidely used throughout the world (less in electricity

generation)Deposits unevenly spread in the worldMany wars have been waged for its controlDeposits are not to last forever (50 yrs? with new

discoveries, perhaps, longer)Its price is highly volatileCost of production: 3-7/bbl; cost in the market:

~$100/bbl. !Causing many spills on land and in the seas (e.g.,

Exxon-Valdez, March 1989); Deepwater Horizon platform in the Gulf of Mexico, in 2010; many others)

Natural Gas

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Sources are fairly widely distributedRecent large discoveries – new technologies:

“fracking”Deposits are now expected to last for many decadesEnvironmentally benign – a good transition fuel (less

CO2 ; about ½ that from coal)Flexible in its use - many usesElectricity generation at high efficiency – GTCC: up to

58%Its price is also volatileCost shows wide variations; US: 3-4/MMBtu; Europe:

10-12/MMBtu; LNG: 16-17/MMBtuAccidents are also possible (Siberia fire; pipeline

leaks cause massive release of methane, and fire in nearby passing train, etc.)

Natural Gas Discoveries - USA

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U.S. Shale Gas Production and Prices

Lippman Consulting, U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The Washington Post – 14-Nov-12).

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Natural Gas Potential - Europe

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China’s growing need for Natural Gas (growth rates)

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Natural Gas Potential - China

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Nuclear energy - Current status

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Worldwide, it has come to provide about 17% of generated electric power

Percentage of contribution varies widely:France; 75%U.S.: 20%Germany and Japan (before a drastic decision to

shut down nuclear plants, 30%)In the U.S. and Europe, it has remained rather

stagnantStrong plans for growth exist in many

developing countries, mainly the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa ) but also in Korea, Turkey, Mexico, etc.)

Small, Modular Reactors (SMR) are under study and development in the U.S. (US DOE support given)

Nuclear Energy - Pros and Cons

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• Has proven reliable operation over many years (since the 1950s)

• Produces no significant air or water emissions (barring an accident)

• Produces almost zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions• Relatively wide-spread uranium deposits with

adequate Supplies for over 100 yrs (assuming no reprocessing of wastes)

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• Risk of accidents (Thee-Mile island, Chernobyl, Fukushima)

• Risk of weapons proliferation (Iran, North Korea)

• Radioactive-waste management and disposal

• High capital cost and long gestation period

Nuclear Energy and Energy Security

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• The technology can be provided by at least five manufacturers with good competition:U.S,JapanS. KoreaFranceRussia

• Nuclear fuel can also be procured competitively

• No risk of restrictions for GHG limitation

• An amount of fuel lasting for three years’ operation or more can be stored easily on-site. This was a main motivation for Japan which is highly exposed to energy insecurity.

C. Environmental Impacts

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Environmental impacts figure as a primary concern in energy policy – cannot be ignored

Advanced countries have made great strides in improving air, water, and land conditions

Every project needs to have an objective, reliable, and credible Environmental Impact Assessment and it has become a science in itself

However, people in many developing countries live in dire (land, water, and air) conditions

Economically advanced countries need to be concerned about environmental conditions in developing countries

Air conditions in China – very poor

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D. Climate Change

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A major concern in our times – Green House Gases (GHG) are increasing in the atmosphere (now reaching 400 ppm)

A scientific consensus has been formedA series of reports by the IPCC highlights the

risksConsensus: global temperature is rising and the

main cause is anthropogenicMeasures need to be taken now in order to

ensure temp. rise not larger than 2o CAnnouncement of US. EPA on 2-June-2014Current and future restrictions must be taken

into account now, in an energy policy for energy security

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E. Diversity of Energy Sources and Suppliers

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Coal is offered by a number of suppliers (S. Africa, Australia, Colombia, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, etc.)

Petroleum is also supplied by a number of suppliers (Arab Gulf nations, Libya, Algeria, Russia, Norway, Venezuela, Mexico, Canada, etc.)

New sources are being discovered by “fracking”

Suppliers are linked to methods and routes of transportation.

Open routes need to be maintained

The Persian Gulf

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Gas suppliers

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Largest deposits are found in Russia, Iran, Iraq, Algeria, Brunei, and other countries

The U.S. is expected to become a net exporter or energy– LNG terminals for export are now being planned, designed, licensed, and constructed

Large deposits have been discovered and appraised in Eastern Mediterranean (Cyprus, Israel and Greece)

Israel has contracted to export nat. gas from the Tamar field to Jordan (and plans to export gas further east)

Revolution in the gas supply

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Large shale gas (and shale oil) discoveries

The U.S. is expected to become a net exporter of hydrocarbons (by 2022?)

Large economic effects (manufacturing moving back to the U.S. – even Chinese firms are moving to the U.S.)

Prices will take downward pressure from the low cost of U.S. gas, especially when it starts exporting

The Russia-China gas deal (21-May-14)

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F. Diversity of Supply Routes

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Geopolitics are important in establishing and maintaining routes

Coal, oil, and gas can be transported by land, and sea

Diversity of transport routes are important for both suppliers and buyers

Many routes have been proposed in recent years

Some made it to reality - some not

B. Existing and Proposed Gas Pipelines

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A tangle of pipelines –South-East Europe

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Multiple routes – The South Stream

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Burgas-Alexandroupolis Oil Pipeline

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Interconnector Turkey-Greece-Italy (ITGI)

Poseidon Section (in red)

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The Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP)

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G. The Eastern Mediterranean(Geopolitical context)

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Turmoil in North Africa (Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt)Civil was in SyriaDeterioration in Israel-Turkey relations (possible

reversal?)Cyprus’ economic crisis and rescue package (EU,

ECB, and IMF)Dialogue restart between the two Cypriot

communities (early 2014)Discoveries of large hydrocarbon deposits in the

Cyprus and Israeli Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ)Greece has been in severe economic recession but

made large hydrocarbon discoveries – reached a primary budget surplus in 2013

New context: the Ukraine crisis

The Discovery of Hydrocarbon Deposits(Noble Energy, Inc.)

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Exploration Lots within the Cypriot EEZ

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Important discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean

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• A very important development

• In underwater region, mainly between Israel and Cyprus

• Large quantities of natural gas (possibly, also of oil)

• Official estimates – in EEZ of Cyprus:5-8 tcf (142-227 bcm)Total deposits in Cyprus EEZ (speculative)

are estimated at:80-100 tcf (2,265-2,830 bcm)In the larger off-shore region: up to 350 tcf

Gas Export Pipeline

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Greece’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)

Greece: First “Open Door” Exploration Areas

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Estimated deposits in the Greek EEZ(50% confidence level)

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Area of DepositsOil (bill. bbl)

Gas (bill.

c.m.)

Aegean Sea 1 70

Ionian Sea 1.5 71

Libyan Sea (South of Crete) 4.2 2,400

For comparison    

Nile Delta and Levantine Basin 11 12,000

H. A few examples - Do’s and don’ts

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US: has a strong environmental but not a coherent energy policy. Imports less than 10% of oil imports from any source (except for Canada). Has a good oil storage capacity

China: high economic development was made at the expense of the environment. Low energy prices have led to overconsumption and a need for high imports

India: has a poor energy endowment; low prices have led to overconsumption and non-viable energy companies

Egypt: low prices have led to quick depletion of its gas resources; it will need to import gas from Israel

Japan: closure of nuclear plants have led to increase of coal use and excessive imports of LNG, leading to loss of competitiveness.

U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia: started the development of nuclear power in view of depletion of its hydrocarbon deposits; also dev’t of RE

Greece and other EU: high prices for solar energy have led to serious problems for its national power corp. (DEH) and even to breach of contracts

I. Conclusions

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• Energy Security is a primary need of the economy and a serious responsibility of governments

• Means: indigenous production, storage, diversity of supply and transport, use of renewable energy, and strong efficiency measures

• There are means of approaching this goal but sound policies are often not in place owing to many obstacles, mostly political

• The energy landscape is changing dramatically

• Good international relations are essential for achieving energy security