business update - bernard hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • falling nz...

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AUGUST 2011 Business Update Brought to you by:

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Page 1: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

AUGUST 2011

Business UpdateBrought to you by:

Page 2: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

The porridge is cooling

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 3: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

Confidence weakens:Why businesses and consumers are less 

confident, but economy is likely to keep growing

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 4: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

Plenty of automatic stabilisation

The NZ dollar’s fall and lower interest rates will cushion the blow, and 

Auckland remains strong.Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 5: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

• 2% growth + no inflation• Falling NZ interest rates• What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest• The dairy shock matters• But it’s not everything• China’s slowdown is a thing• What it all means for NZ’s economies & property marketsAuckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 6: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

An elephant in the room

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 7: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

But it has been as bad before

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 8: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

And other farmers are doing OK 

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 9: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

An emerging middle class

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 10: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

Driven by China

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 11: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

Tourism surges past dairy

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 12: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

But China is slowing

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 13: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

Where’s the inflation?

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 14: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

Retail prices down for 4 years

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 15: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

Inflation below RBNZ target

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 16: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

Real wage growth is v. strong

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 17: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

Confidence down, but not dire

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 18: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

Surprise construction drop

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 19: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

Farming hit hardest

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 20: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

So Auckland went vertical

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 21: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

On planet Auckland

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 22: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

Landlords targeted

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 23: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

Yield doesn’t matter…

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 24: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

Another planet

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 25: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

A migration correlation

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 26: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

• Thank you• Questions• Challenges

Auckland Chamber Aug 19

Page 27: BUSINESS UPDATE - Bernard Hickey plus holding slide.ppt...•2% growth + no inflation • Falling NZ interest rates •What the RBNZ/Govt is doing about Auckland and the rest •The

• Bernard Hickey•[email protected]• 027 866 0011• www.twitter.com/bernardchickey

Auckland Chamber Aug 19