business plan 2015 tristar homes limited

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Tristar Homes Ltd

Business Plan 2015/16

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Contents

Page

No

Forward – Chair of Tristar Homes 4 1. The Thirteen Group and Partners 5 2. Business Context, Risks and Priorities 6 3. About Tristar Homes Ltd 9 4. Progress in 2014/15 11 5. Proposed plans for 2015/16 onwards 15 6. Performance Monitoring and Review 20 7. Summary of Financial Plan to 2019-20 21 8. Sensitivity Analysis 25 Appendix I – Summary of Business Plan Assumptions Appendix II – 30 Year Financial Projections Appendix III – Sensitivity Analysis Appendix IV – Thirteen Group Leadership Team Appendix V – Tristar Homes Board Directors

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Foreword – Chair of Tristar Homes

This is my first year as Chair of Tristar Homes, and the first year of Tristar Homes being

part of the Thirteen Group.

Looking back I am grateful for the solid foundations provided by the committed leadership

of my predecessor – John MacDougall. He not only oversaw the development of Tristar

Homes as an independent housing association but also guided us into the strong

partnerships of the former Vela Housing Group, and now Thirteen. The federated structure

of Thirteen provides both a collaborative and mutually supportive framework but also a

continuing focus by Tristar Homes on the housing and social needs of our Stockton-on-

Tees, and wider Stockton area, communities.

This revised and updated business plan continues to reflect that focus of activity: as the

major landlord in Stockton we continue to direct our efforts towards the delivery of

excellent services, maintaining good quality homes and estates and adding social value to

our neighbourhoods; in our regeneration role, we aim to be the neighbourhood anchor and

strategic partner in the communities we work in, to radically improve both the housing and

the wider social environment to create a landscape of successful, vibrant communities.

Whilst this ambition drives us forward we still face a challenging external environment.

Significant here is the continuing uncertainty of the local housing market, with competition

from low-cost, but often less secure private rented housing, and the now familiar welfare

reform agenda including now, the introduction of Universal Credit. This serves to make our

working environment less certain and more changeable than in the past and we are very

much aware of the need to provide even more responsive and flexible solutions to match

our future customers needs and aspirations. This then forms the backdrop to this year’s

business plan overview.

In response we have already put in place many new initiatives to both reinvest in our

existing stock, but to also re-align services and service standards to match increasing

customer demands. We also continue to develop our regeneration partnership

arrangements with Stockton Council, with ambitious plans being developed to transform

the Victoria Estate in central Stockton. And we will continue to review our delivery plans to

ensure continuing relevance and impact.

Finally I would like to take this opportunity to thank my fellow Board members for their

support and guidance, and to the Executive and their staff for their hard work delivering

services for Tristar Homes throughout this last 12 months.

Mark Simpson

Chairman – Tristar Homes Ltd

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1. The Thirteen Group and Partners

Background

The Thirteen Group was formed in April 2014 from the coming together of the two

existing housing groups of Fabrick and Vela. Both of these established groups already

operated in a defined geographical location, primarily the Tees Valley area but

extending across the North Yorkshire and North East of England.

As landlord and service provider Thirteen directly reaches out to more than 70,000

people. It had a first year turnover of over £150 million and an asset base approaching

£1 billion.

Group Company Structure

Created from a joining of equals, the Thirteen Group is based on a ‘federal’ structure of

five mutually supportive partner organisations:

Erimus Housing – managing around 11,400 properties in total and lead partner in

the Middlesbrough area

Housing Hartlepool – managing around 7,700 properties in total and lead partner

in the Hartlepool area

Tees Valley Housing– managing around 4,200 properties from York up to

Northumberland

Tristar Homes – managing around 10,400 properties in total and lead partner in

the Stockton area

Thirteen Care and Support – a care and support provider, based in Newcastle,

formed from the care and support services previously delivered by Norcare Ltd

and Tees Valley Housing

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Our collective values

The Thirteen Board has set out clear values that reflect not only the history and record of

the predecessor Fabrick and Vela Groups, but also the ambitions and culture of the new

Group and the Thirteen Partner Boards.

We are:

• passionate about our social purpose • flexible and open minded • professional and accountable • supporting entrepreneurship and solutions that deliver • showing respect and optimism • credible and ethical

As a not for profit business we exist to provide benefit to our communities. That is our

reason for existing, our mission and purpose. We are a social business.

These values help us to demonstrate how we care about the people and communities we

serve and the partnerships we develop. They illustrate the kinds of partners we want to

work with, those who share our values and our passion and commitment to help bring to

life the business we are striving to create.

2. Business Context, Risks and Priorities

Business Challenges In common with all housing providers we face immense challenges within the current and immediate social and economic climate. The economy remains located within a period of protracted slow growth and public expenditure is likely to remain highly restricted. Both the Thirteen Board and its Partner Organisations remain very much aware of the many key challenges, including: A continuing pressure on the financial position and status of many of our customers

and local communities, with greatly reduced prospects particularly for those in the 16 to 24 age bands;

More directly pressures resulting from the impact of welfare reforms, most notably the ‘bedroom tax’ and now Universal Credit, hardening the operating environment for social housing providers, and creating greater uncertainty for both individuals, communities and social housing businesses;

Continuing uncertainty within the economic and housing market despite some modest

improvement in the availability of mortgage finance;

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Social and demographic changes that continue to present specific needs gaps for those very elderly, in poor health or disabled and for the others who, collectively, remain the most vulnerable members of our communities.

The recent election now provides a degree of political certainty for a 5 year period, but with a reaffirmation of much of the existing welfare reform agenda. However, added now is the additional potential challenge of an extended Right to Buy and yet further escalation of the welfare reform. But this context also provides the challenge within which the Thirteen Group, and its

Partner Organisations, will flourish, drawing upon the immense capacity and capability

which the new Group has created.

Strategic Risks

The Group has reviewed its key strategic risks during 2014/15 and, looking forward, now

sees the key challenges to its strategic objectives as being:

Significant service delivery quality or failure

Failure to identify, understand and react to changes in market and impact of diversifying into non-core business activity

The volatility of our operating environment, and uncertainty of the political landscape, impacts on activity

Failure of, or too many, complex projects and/or opportunities, including partnership working issues

Failure to maximise use of assets to achieve Group objectives

Regulatory failure due to poor governance / assurance

Failure to deliver efficiencies specified in business case for merger

Failure to merge and integrate Group effectively / demonstrate effective leadership

Failure to secure funding and revenue - to deliver core business plus other opportunities

FRS102 and the impact that will have on decision making

Strategic Priorities

The Thirteen Board, along with the Thirteen Partner Boards, continues to focus on the

following strategic priorities – these inform and frame the focus of our work and activities:

Promoting Resilience and Sustainability

In our:

- Business;

- Assets;

- Customers and clients;

- Neighbourhoods and communities.

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Committed to Growth and Adding Value

- Developing aspirational homes and community facilities;

- Ensuring existing partnerships deliver;

- Forging new partnerships and making connections.

Building a Great Organisation

- Delivering profit for social purpose;

- Delivering great services;

- Generating social capital;

- Doing business in an ethical way;

- Investing, learning and innovating;

- Being well led and accountable.

As we begin our second year of operation as the Thirteen Group, the Group Board and the five Partner Boards, together with the Executive and wider management team, have collectively aligned themselves behind the immediate aim for 2015-16 of "Laying Firm Foundations". This strategic statement of intent re-emphasises the short-medium term objectives of

prioritising those activities that are core to our business and central to underpinning our

future growth, and helping enable Thirteen to become the organisation it aspires to be in

the future.

More specifically, the key priorities are:

Letting, managing and maintaining good quality homes;

Maximising rental and other income;

Completing a series of office accommodation moves;

Preparing for and implementing iPaCs - our new integrated property and customer services system;

Keeping us legal and safe; and

Continuing our work developing people and teams.

This immediate strategic objectives are reflected within this Tristar Homes strategic plan,

but are also embedded within the more detailed operational plans held with Group

Directorates, and informs the prioritisation of a range of corporate projects.

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3. About Tristar Homes Ltd

Constitution and Governance

Tristar Homes Ltd is a company limited by guarantee and operates as a subsidiary

(Landlord Partner) company within the Thirteen Group. The Board comprises up to 12

members, including Independent Directors, Local Authority nominated Directors, Tenant

Directors as well as a Lead Executive.

Tristar Homes was formed in December 2010 when it took over the ownership of the

former council housing stock following a positive ballot by tenants. Previously Tristar

Homes had been an arms length management organisation.

A multi-million pound investment programme is being carried out to ensure that all of our

homes exceed the decent home standard, which includes environmental work to ensure

our neighbourhoods are pleasant and safe places to live. Ongoing investment work will

continue to ensure all homes meet, and frequently exceed, this standard.

Key Areas of Focus

Housing Management & Leasehold Management

The most central and significant area of focus for Tristar Homes is as one of the four

Landlord Partners of the Thirteen Group. As a landlord, Tristar Homes is responsible for

overseeing performance and service development and delivery to more than 10,400

homes, primarily within the geographical boundaries of the Stockton on Tees Local

Authority but within some outlying locations too.

The housing stock profile, by Local Authority area, is summarised below:

Rental Stock Other

Local Authority

Darlington 36

Durham 17

Gateshead 26 2

Middlesbrough 66 28

Redcar 11 9

Stockton 9924 306

Sunderland 9 10

Total 10089 355

An important and continuing aspect in providing quality housing services has been

engagement with tenants and residents, given more focus in this last year through the

review of previous participatory mechanisms and the development of a new Thirteen-wide

Resident Involvement Framework. Two key elements in this new structure are the

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Customer Council and the Tenant Scrutiny Panel, both of which have representatives from

amongst the Tristar Homes tenant body.

Development and Regeneration Activity

As the major regeneration partner with the Local Authority, Tristar Homes plays a major role in physical and community regeneration, which includes the current regeneration of various estates at Mandale Park (Thornaby), Swainby Road (Norton), Parkfield and Mill Lane (Stockton), and Victoria Estate (Stockton).

Working in partnership with Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council, Tristar Homes have also worked on bringing a number of privately owned empty homes back into use, helping to stabilise areas of private sector housing subject to decay and abandonment.

Specialist Service Provision

In addition to providing general needs traditional social housing, some more specialist service developments have included:

Extra care housing for the elderly and those with related support needs in Middlesbrough and Billingham

Employability support, initially developed as part of the Vela Group but now provided as a value-added initiative across the Thirteen Group

A community fund of £40,000 – named ‘Buzzin’ - provided as part of our stock transfer offer promises. Funds are allocated to local providers to involve young people in positive activity and projects supported to date have covered a range of ages and activities, including cookery, skateboarding, and a volunteer project that targeted young men under 25 in the Roseworth area.

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4. Progress in 2014/15

The following table provides a summary of progress from the 2014/15 business plan key objectives. A number of these have been developed

into implementation stage and are now carried over into the 2015/16 plan, as detailed in Section 6.

Strategic Priority

Key Business Aim Priority Year 1

Performance Measure

Progress 2014/15


Integrate services within Thirteen Group [Business aim common to all Partner Boards]

1 Completion of integration plan 2014/15

Achieved Integration plan on track and Boards regularly updated

Review VFM strategy and embed VFM practices, to include:

Develop project review/appraisal approaches

Assess return on investment across different business streams

1 Complete annual VFM self-assessment [Sept 2014] Review VFM ambitions & plans annually

Achieved VFM completed on schedule & accessible on website Preparatory work for 2014/15 VFM self-assessment commenced.

Demonstrate Excellence in Governance

1 Achieve and maintain G1/V1 regulatory status across Group

Achieved V1/G1 confirmed Nov 2014

Review current position and develop series of key Operational delivery strategies

1/2 Review operational strategies to programme 2014/15

Achieved A schedule of new strategies brought forward & reported to Boards

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Strategic Priority


Performance Measure

Progress 2014/15


Implement a pilot project to redefine the quality of home provided through installation of carpets (floor finishes) fitted white goods and full decoration etc.

1 Review pilot approach Quarter 3; Review Quarter 4

Partially Achieved Now within Allocations & Empty Homes Strategy review 2014: Strategy approved Quarter 3 Initial pilot scheme Quarter4

Invest in people: explore different solutions to tenancy sustainment

2 Quarter review (with Thirteen C&S as appropriate)

Partially Achieved Now within Allocations & Empty Homes Strategy review 2014: Strategy approved Quarter 3

Continue environmental improvements programme: high impact schemes completed/on-going but more investment needed to tackle emerging issues and help sustain neighbourhoods

2

Quarter performance reports Overview report [Quarter 2]

Achieved Part of capital programme of £28.7m Ongoing strategic partnership with Groundworks


Continuing focus of regeneration activity on existing commitments – Swainby Road, Victoria and Mandale. Delivery of current commitments.

1 Quarter performance reports Review neighbourhood impact/outcomes year end

Achieved Part of capital programme of £28.7m

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Strategic Priority


Performance Measure

Progress 2014/15


Provide money advice support, and potential for low cost loans for tenants and staff

Review CSR/social investment strategy [3rd Quarter reporting] Quarterly performance reports

Partially Achieved CSR strategy being developed

Tackle fuel poverty through the provision of Renewable Technologies [Note: Create an ESCO to reduce tenants fuel bills [group project]]

1 Implement Fuel Poverty Strategy Q2 and review against actions bi-annually

Partially Achieved Fuel poverty strategy approved in principle: collaborative agreement with range of other RP’s - Your Energy Services NE Ltd (YES) joint company Dec 2014. ESCO continuing to be reviewed into 2015/16

Maintain welfare reform hardship budget

1 Implement neighbourhood plans & review 2014 Also: review CSR strategy 2014/15

Achieved Current budget maintained. Interim Income Strategy or approval Quarter 4, including hardship budget. Also

interim Inclusion Strategy for approval Quarter 4

Maintain, develop & review employability service, targeted on tenants impacted by bedroom tax

2 Review CSR/social investment strategy [3rd Quarter reporting] Quarter performance reports; Review neighbourhood impact/outcomes year end



Develop and expand digital inclusion activities

2 Review CSR/social investment strategy [3rd Quarter reporting] Quarter performance reports


Consider and review market rented proposals [Group]

2 Report proposals [Quarter 2] Partially Achieved Working groups established to develop proposals

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Strategic Priority


Performance Measure

Progress 2014/15


Continue development commitments and focus on smaller scale sites that help build neighbourhood resilience

2 Update development strategy and delivery plan [Quarter 1] Quarter performance reports

Partially Achieved

Development Strategy in place HCA approved main elements of

bid and programme is on track.

Target in place and reported each

quarter - 80% new build let within 3

months

Explore potential for specialised development provision, notably:

Extra care provision

Retirement village concept

Student accommodation

3 Report proposals [Quarter 4] Achieved

Development Strategy in place, HCA approved main elements of bid and programme is on track. Older Person’s Strategy approved Feb 2015

Examine potential for enlarged and widened private sector renting ‘offer’

2 Initial proposals commenced Report progress [Quarter 1 & Quarter 3]

Partially Achieved Working groups established to develop proposals

Examine potential to expand Property Services ‘offer’, especially older persons as Care & Repair (and potentially linked to additional support services.)

2 Report proposals [Quarter 4] Partially Achieved Consultant (Peter Fletcher Associates) currently reviewing elderly services aligned to older persons’ strategy; may defer some actions.

Examine potential for commercial premises advice, support to link to neighbourhood sustainability

3 Report proposals [Quarter 4] Deferred Not progressed to date

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5. Proposed plans for 2015/16 onwards

Key business aims are Corporate (Thirteen-wide) unless specifically identified.

Strategic Priority

Key Business Aim Priority 2015/16

How will delivery be reported?

Performance Measure


Maintain quality service to Tristar Homes 10,000+ customers (THL specific)

1 Relevant measures included in Balanced Scorecard – Quarterly Reporting

100% compliance on gas servicing Income to be within business plan assumptions of: 2.5% voids loss 3.5% bad debts

Implement and ensure delivery and impact of Customer Service Strategy, including:

Develop new customer service standards

Develop customer insight to identify and profile customers segments

Develop ICT capacity & self-service

1 Quarter 2/Half-year review of progress

Balanced Scorecard – Quarterly Reporting

Achievement of Customer Service Excellence standard Achievement of Institute of Customer Service accreditation

Implement and ensure delivery and impact of Resident Involvement Framework, including:

Implement and embed new RIF

Develop bespoke customer learning programme

Develop complaints panel & review


Involvement targets as outlined in strategy document Increase % satisfaction with involvement as measured through STAR survey (or equivalent) – target 86%

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Strategic Priority



Performance Measure


Implement People Strategy and related HR strategies, including:

Introduce Group pay framework and T&Cs

Develop induction & volunteering programme(s)

Undertake skills gap analysis and implement Personal Development Performance Reviews for staff

Develop employee wellbeing programme

Monitor and review pension offer

1/2 Via Remuneration Committee Quarterly. Also highlight reports to HH Board Quarters 2 and 4 or by exception

Performance measures to be determined. Annual review

Develop and implement Neighbourhood and Community Safety Strategy and develop Neighbourhood plans, including:

Review of service standards

Review management of ‘out of town’ properties

Review management of non-general-needs schemes

2 Quarter 2/Half-year review of progress Balanced Scorecard – Quarterly Reporting

Increased % satisfaction with neighbourhood and value for money of services provided, through STAR survey

Introduce an Electronic Document Retention and Management (ERDM) system

1 Completion Quarter 3 Completion Quarter 3

Ensure FRS102 accountancy compliance

1 Via Treasury & Investment Highlight reports as necessary

Completion Quarter 3

Implement Integrated Property and Customer Service information management system (IPACs)

1 Via Audit & Risk Committee Highlight reports as necessary

2 stage completion Quarter 1 & Quarter 3

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Strategic Priority



Performance Measure


Develop and implement new intranet, including Board Director services

1 On completion Quarter 1 Completion Quarter 1

Commission “research project” to confirm specific Housing Need and Demand

1/2 To determine requirements Quarter 2/3

Review need by Quarter 3


Regeneration of Victoria Estate (THL Specific)

1 Quarterly update reporting on programme

Demolition and clearance complete Quarter 3 Design plan approval Quarter 4 Inclusion in HCA bid 2016/17

Elm House option appraisal (THL Specific)

1 Initial proposal report – Quarter 2 Quarterly update reporting on programme

Option review Quarter 1/2

Develop and commence implementation of renewable energy installations, including customer advice programme

1 Quarterly update reporting on programme

Target to be set for number of installations to be carried out in time frame

Implement and ensure delivery and impact of Asset Management Strategy, including:

Progress investment programme

Develop a new Sustainability Model

Appraisal of all older person properties and support premises

1/2 Quarterly update reporting on programme

Work to programme Reduction in unavailable voids

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Strategic Priority



Performance Measure


Implement and ensure delivery and impact of Empty Homes Strategy, including:

Establish new empty homes standard

Revise lettings system and related processes

Review/pilot additional incentives and enhancements



Reduction in available voids Reduction in letting/turnaround times

Develop and ensure delivery and impact of an Income Strategy, including:

Review and re-launch of discretionary fund

Review/implement rewards and incentives scheme

Review of service charges and

services provided



Reduction in current arrears No negative impact on available voids

Implement and ensure delivery and impact of Inclusion and CSR strategies, including:

Social investment profile

Employment and training initiatives

Digital inclusion

Green agenda

Food poverty agenda Also to review previous aim to ‘provide low cost loans for tenants and staff’


Review Inclusion Strategy Implement CSR Strategy Targets outlined in strategy document(s)

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Strategic Priority



Performance Measure


Review LA contract-related services e.g. concierge & landscape services (THL Specific)


Agreed performance standards tbc when reviewed

Expand ‘Support to Stay’ model 1 Quarter 2/Half-year review of progress/Annual review


Impact report

Explore business case for new development company


Review report Quarter 2

Explore business case for market rented company/business line, including potential re-marketing of existing stock



Assess and review sales programme and develop a business case on asset value realisation

1/2 Quarter 2/Half-year review of progress


2nd stage review of ESCO implementation and review


Targets to be set for numbers energy switching

Continue development commitments

Cautious to avoid oversupply of certain homes

Focus on sites that help build neighbourhood resilience

Explore potential for specialised development provision

2 Half-year review of progress/Annual review


Completion of programme to targets [Estimate 228 completions 2015/16]

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6. Performance Monitoring and Review

Balanced Scorecard The Tristar Homes Board receives performance data on a suite of 23 Key Performance

Indicators (KPIs) presented at the end of each quarter, augmented by 2 ‘Super KPIs’ showing

more detailed trend analysis details and graphs. These are cross referenced against the

Thirteen strategic priorities. The current Balanced Scorecard comprises of the following KPI

measures:

Thirteen Priority

Performance Measure Y/e 12/13

Y/e 13/14

Y/e 14/15

Customer

Building a great organisation

KP1 - Overall customer satisfaction (STAR) 86% 86% 86%

KP2 - Tenant satisfaction with home (new tenancy) 8.93 9.3*

KP3 - Number of complaints per 1000 properties 2.7 6.0

Financial


KP4 - Total current arrears amount (Net HB) £911,606 £1,143,814 £1,233,831

KP5 - Total current arrears as a percentage of debit

2.09% 2.48% 2.65%

KP6 - Void rent loss a % of debit 1.84% 2.28% 3.38%

KP7 - Income collected as a % of all potential income

101.6%

KP8 - Total Former Tenants Arrears £721,309 £1,170,189 £799,421

KP9 – Funding - amount of debt per property £19,022

KP10 - Ratio of expenditure per property to income 72.3%

KP11 - Return on Assets -2.80 8.39 Tbc

Internal Business Process


KP12 - % of Major Routine Adaptations completed within 80 days

75%

KP13 - End to end letting time all properties (days) 22.43 24.27 58.7

KP14 - Number of empty properties - Available / Unavailable (total) [‘available’ only pre 2014/15]

132 137 333/109

KP15 - % of properties with a valid CP12 100% 100% 100%

KP16 Jobs completed in one visit 86.28% 90.33% 91.34%

KP17 - Number of H&S RIDDOR incidents [Thirteen year-end cumulative]

F 4 2

V 9 8

TG 12

Learning and Growth


KP18 - Customers helped into employment training and work placements [Thirteen year-end cumulative]

F

V 86 354

TG 384

KP19 - Number of new build properties built for sale empty for 6 months or more

11

KP20 - Number of new build properties built for sale empty for less than 6 months

34

KP21 - Number & % of new properties let within 3 months of those handed over

86%

KP22 – Number starter tenancies terminating in 12 months

9.22% 11.34% 9.08%

KP23 - Total sickness absence [Thirteen year-end cumulative]

4.7%

* data for part-year only

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7. Summary of Financial Plan to 2019-20 Introduction

Thirteen was formed on 1 April 2014 from the merger of the former Vela and Fabrick Housing Groups with the expectation of delivering savings and improved services to customers.

The Financial Plan recognises the savings made to date in group shared services, staffing and joint procurement, however the assumptions within the plan are prudent in only recognising those savings that have been formally delivered, and we expect to deliver further savings as new contracts are rolled out across the group.

Income and Expenditure Tristar Homes has prepared 30-year financial projections demonstrating its ability to manage the resources to deliver the strategic objectives set out in this Plan. The projected Income and Expenditure Account for the first 5 years of the Plan is summarised below (more detailed projections are contained in Appendix II):

2015/16

£’000

Projected

2016/17

£’000

Projected

2017/18

£’000

Projected

2018/19

£’000

Projected

2019/20

£’000

Projected

Turnover 47,600 50,708 49,391 49,466 50,820

Operating Costs -34,514 -44,659 -43,593 -43,713 -39,440

Operating Surplus 13,086 6,049 5,798 5,753 11,380

Interest Receivable 62 110 216 211 209

Interest Payable -2,386 -3,453 -4,422 -5,526 -6,129

Other Activities 0 0 0 0 0

Net Income from Property Sales

423 250 266 283 299

Surplus for the year 11,185 2,956 1,858 721 5,759

Planned Investment in Housing Properties (Major Repairs)

17,621 25,021 25,646 26,287 16,755

Capitalisation of Major Repairs

-9,670 -11,719 -12,012 -12,313 -7,169

Interest Cover % 566% 182% 137% 109% 191%

Overview of results The financial projections show Tristar Homes generating annual operating surpluses throughout the 30 year financial plan, with major development and investment costs supplemented from long term borrowing, indicating a peak debt requirement of £84.2m by

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2019. The key financial ratios indicate that Tristar Homes can support the obligations arising from this debt and repay the projected borrowing by 2028. Existing facilities are in place totalling £87.5m from RBS.

Key Assumptions The key assumptions used in preparing the financial forecasts are summarised in Appendix I. Economic Assumptions The financial projections have been prepared on the basis that Libor will increase to 5.25%, with inflation forecast at 2.0% (CPI) and 2.5% (RPI) from year 4 for the life of the plan:

Description Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 +

CPI 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

RPI 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

LIBOR 2.25% 3.50% 4.25% 5.25% 5.25%

Salary (Over RPI) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Maintenance (Over RPI) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

In recognition of the current low rate of CPI, a scenario has been run with CPI at 0% in year 2 (Scenario 4 Appendix III) which demonstrates that Tristar Homes can continue to operate successfully in this scenario. Welfare Reform Provision has been made for the impact of welfare reform including increases to voids, bad debts and arrears. A number of interventions are planned which should help to manage the impact of welfare reform and see void and bad debt rates managed over the long term. These include strengthening the debt recovery and tenant support teams along with provision for the additional transaction costs of processing rental income, and a fund for the discretionary write off of debt. Following significant investment in tackling our void and hard to let properties in 2014/15, void loss rates are projected at 2.5% in 2015/16, with an expectation that they will fall back to 2% in future years due the interventions mentioned above. Bad debt rates are projected higher than previous performance of below 2.0%, with rates of 3.5% projected in 2015/16 and 2016/17 and falling to 3.0% thereafter. Despite the increase in costs resulting from welfare reform, Tristar Homes aims to continue to provide excellent services to tenants, to maintain and invest in its properties and to develop 385 new homes over the life of the plan. Rental Income It is assumed that rents will continue to increase in line with the Government’s rent guidance. For Tristar Homes, rents are projected with increases of CPI + 1.0% only, for years 1-10 of the

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plan with CPI + 0% over the remaining term of the plan. Clearly, there are some risks attached to this assumption, which have been examined as part of the sensitivity analysis referred to below. Assumptions regarding voids and bad debts have been updated to accommodate the potential increases arising from welfare reform, as described above. Property Sales The Plan has been prepared on the basis of current levels of RTB and RTA sales continuing throughout, with 20 property sales per annum from year 2 onwards. Affordable home ownership sales are also assumed from the development programme with 39 shared ownership sales and 32 outright sales. Management and Service Costs Salary costs are expected to rise at RPI throughout the life of the Plan. Non-salary costs are also expected to be contained at RPI. Specific savings are projected, notably from the relocation to the new North Shore office, the building costs of which are shared evenly with Housing Hartlepool. Maintenance Costs Maintenance costs are expected to increase in line with inflation. The base position is the agreed Budget 2015/16 and it is expected that current plans regarding procurement of maintenance services will deliver efficiencies in this area in future. These efficiencies have not been anticipated in the current financial projections. Major repairs and property improvements The long term plan is based on the outcomes of the Savills validation of our stock condition survey, conducted in 2013. All properties meet decent homes standard and we are delivering other sustainability improvements to make homes more lettable, such as improving neighbourhoods, communal areas, security and improving the thermal comfort of homes. The cost of major works is also capitalised where appropriate with £9.7m out of £17.6m projected to be capitalised under component accounting in 2015-16. Development of New Properties The Plan assumes the development of 385 new rented properties over the life of the plan. This is reflective of current levels of new affordable homes. Tristar Homes does however have the capacity to deliver more newbuild properties, as demonstrated under the sensitivity analysis carried out (see appendix III), which continues to be a strategic priority of the group. It will be apparent that without the ability to cross-subsidise from housing for sale, numbers of new affordable homes will be dependent on grant rates and cost. Interest Payable Interest payable is based on the margins in the loan agreement, which remain below 2.0%, and projections for interest rates. For 2015/16, the variable rate of interest has been assumed at 1.25%, providing for an increase from current levels and then rising gradually to 5.25% in year 5 and thereafter. There is some uncertainty in relation to future interest rates although increases are expected over the medium term.

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Tristar Homes operates a prudent treasury management policy, and aims to have hedging instruments in place to protect against future interest rate rises. Consequently, existing long-term fixed-rate loans of £30m are in place.

Compliance with Loan Covenants

Appendix III shows a projection of our compliance with our key financial ratio loan covenants throughout the 30-year term of this Plan, and confirms we have the capacity to support the resources required to deliver each of the key strategic objectives considered above and developed further in our Strategic Plan.

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8 Sensitivity Analysis

Table of Key Sensitivities The core assumptions used in the preparation of the financial projections are summarised in the previous section, and are detailed in Appendix I. We have also considered the impact of changes in some of the key assumptions, and the key sensitivities examined are set out below. These include multi-variate analysis, considering a number of risks occurring at the same time. The table at Appendix III shows the impact of these sensitivities on our key financial indicators. The scenarios tested can be broadly defined as follows:

Scenario 1: Increase RPI and CPI by 1%

Scenario 2: Decrease RPI and CPI by 1%

Scenario 3: Interest rate increased to LIBOR + 1%

Scenario 4: CPI at 0% for Rental Income only, year 2

Scenario 5: Future Rent increases limited to CPI + 0% year 2 onward

Scenario 6: Increase Voids & Bad Debts by 1%

Scenario 7: Additional expenditure of £250k per annum from year 2

Scenario 8: Additional one-off expenditure of £2m in year 2

Scenario 9: Future development costs increased by 10%

Scenario 10: No property sales throughout the plan

Scenario 11: Remove uncommitted development units from the plan

Scenario 12: Future development programme maximised over 30 years, limited to repay loans within 30 years

Scenario 13: Future development programme 100 units per annum from year 5 onwards

Scenario 14: Welfare reform measures withdrawn, Bad debts, voids and arrears each reduced by 1%

Scenario 15: Increase RPI and CPI by 1%, Interest rate increased to LIBOR + 1%, future Rent increases limited to CPI + 0% year 2 onward, increase Voids & Bad Debts by 1%, additional expenditure of £250k per annum from year 2 and additional one-off expenditure of £2m in year 2

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Appendix I – Summary of Business Plan Assumptions

Description 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

RPI

Base

Budget 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

CPI

Base

Budget 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0%

Real increase in target rents

Base

Budget 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

LIBOR 1.25% 2.25% 3.50% 4.25% 5.25%

Real earnings inflation

Base

Budget 0% 0% 0% 0%

Real Repairs & Maintenance

Base

Budget 0% 0% 0% 0%

Voids - General Needs (GN) 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Bad Debts - GN 3.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

RTB Sales 36 20 20 20 20

S/O Staircasing 0 0 0 0 0

Demolitions 119 64 20 0 0

New Development units 179 86 112 8 0

Real Increase = Rents - rate above CPI; Other - rate above RPI

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Appendix II – 30-Year Financial Projections Detailed Income & Expenditure Account 2016-2045

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

£000's £000's £000's £000's £000's £000's £000's £000's £000's £000's

Income From Lettings

Rent Receivable 43,407 44,404 45,747 47,308 48,818 55,901 61,126 66,833 73,266 79,873

Service Charge Income 1,175 1,190 1,225 1,262 1,300 1,507 1,747 2,025 2,348 2,722

Gross Rental Income 44,582 45,593 46,972 48,571 50,118 57,408 62,873 68,859 75,614 82,595

Less Voids -1,106 -999 -936 -968 -999 -1,144 -1,253 -1,372 -1,507 -1,646

Net Rental Income 43,476 44,595 46,035 47,602 49,119 56,264 61,620 67,487 74,108 80,949

Other Income

Total Turnover From

Social Housing Lettings 43,476 44,595 46,035 47,602 49,119 56,264 61,620 67,487 74,108 80,949

Management Costs 5,588 6,273 6,479 6,671 6,038 6,815 7,652 8,322 9,416 10,653

Service Costs 2,551 2,800 2,870 2,941 3,014 3,407 3,847 4,304 4,869 5,509

Routine Maintenance 8,319 8,661 8,876 9,096 9,322 10,538 11,893 13,283 15,029 17,004

Planned Maintenance 1,612 1,819 1,974 2,091 2,186 2,469 2,756 2,901 3,283 3,714

Major Repairs 7,951 13,301 13,634 13,975 9,586 13,118 12,362 16,938 18,015 20,382

Bad Debts 1,528 1,587 1,405 1,452 1,498 1,716 1,879 2,058 2,260 2,469

Depreciation Of Housing

Properties 2,795 3,419 4,031 4,613 5,008 6,593 8,794 10,628 13,315 13,946

Total Operating Costs 30,344 37,860 39,267 40,839 36,653 44,656 49,182 58,435 66,186 73,675

Surplus (Deficit) On

Social Housing Lettings 13,132 6,734 6,768 6,764 12,466 11,608 12,438 9,052 7,922 7,274

Net Profit % 30% 15% 15% 14% 25% 21% 20% 13% 11% 9%

Other Activities -46 -686 -970 -1,010 -1,086 -1,220 -1,350 -1,354 -1,532 -1,734

Surplus Deficit On Sale

Of Properties 423 250 266 283 299 389 490 605 735 882

Surplus Before Interest

and Tax 13,509 6,299 6,064 6,036 11,679 10,777 11,579 8,303 7,125 6,422

Interest Cover % 566% 182% 137% 109% 191% 275% 513%

Interest Collected 62 110 216 211 209 228 265 312 368 432

Interest Payable -2,386 -3,453 -4,422 -5,526 -6,129 -3,915 -2,259

Surplus Before Tax 11,185 2,956 1,858 721 5,759 7,090 9,585 8,615 7,493 6,854

Corporation Tax

Surplus After Tax 11,185 2,956 1,858 721 5,759 7,090 9,585 8,615 7,493 6,854

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Balance Sheet 2016-2045

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

£ 000's £ 000's £ 000's £ 000's £ 000's £ 000's £ 000's £ 000's £ 000's £ 000's

HOUSING ASSETS

Housing Properties 197,505 212,571 224,487 231,990 233,891 244,226 257,214 254,578 259,486 259,548

Other Fixed Assets Tangible 13,583 12,829 12,066 11,292 10,508 6,429 2,172 2,458 2,781 3,146

Total Fixed Assets 211,088 225,400 236,553 243,282 244,399 250,655 259,386 257,036 262,267 262,694

Current Assets 7,505 3,566 2,556 3,028 3,514 4,411 4,627 40,139 73,359 108,908

Total Current Assets 7,505 3,566 2,556 3,028 3,514 4,411 4,627 40,139 73,359 108,908

Current Liabilities 5,390 5,570 5,709 5,852 5,998 6,786 7,678 8,687 9,828 11,120

Total Current Liabilities 5,390 5,570 5,709 5,852 5,998 6,786 7,678 8,687 9,828 11,120

Net Current Assets 2,114 -2,003 -3,153 -2,823 -2,484 -2,375 -3,051 31,452 63,530 97,788

Total Assets Less Current

Liabilities 213,203 223,397 233,399 240,458 241,915 248,280 256,336 288,487 325,797 360,482

DEFERRED LIABILITIES

Outstanding Loan Balance 62,524 69,762 77,906 84,244 79,942 48,937 22,955

Other Long Term Creditors 12,143 12,143 12,143 12,143 12,143 12,143 12,143 12,143 12,143 12,143

NET ASSETS 138,536 141,492 143,350 144,071 149,830 187,199 221,238 276,344 313,654 348,339

Share Capital and Reserves

Revaluation Reserve 120,981 120,981 120,981 120,981 120,981 120,981 120,981 120,981 120,981 120,981

Restricted Reserves 5,372 5,372 5,372 5,372 5,372 5,372 5,372 5,372 5,372 5,372

Designated Reserves

Pension Reserve -11,410 -11,410 -11,410 -11,410 -11,410 -11,410 -11,410 -11,410 -11,410 -11,410

Retained Surplus 23,593 26,549 28,407 29,128 34,887 72,256 106,295 161,401 198,711 233,396

138,536 141,492 143,350 144,071 149,830 187,199 221,238 276,344 313,654 348,339

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Cash Flow Forecast 2016-2045

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

£000's £000's £000's £000's £000's £000's £000's £000's £000's £000's

OPERATING ACTIVITIES

Cash Received From Customers 47,084 49,158 47,461 47,399 48,837 56,318 61,931 67,870 74,642 81,515

Cash Paid To Suppliers -33,253 -34,591 -35,480 -36,359 -31,770 -38,224 -40,767 -49,076 -54,376 -61,521

Net Cash From Operating

Activities 13,832 14,567 11,981 11,040 17,067 18,094 21,165 18,794 20,267 19,994

Returns On Investments &

Servicing Of Finance

Interest Collected 62 110 216 211 209 228 265 312 368 432

Interest Charges -3,092 -3,620 -4,545 -5,531 -6,129 -3,915 -2,259

Net Cash From Investment

Returns & Finance Servicing -3,030 -3,510 -4,329 -5,319 -5,920 -3,687 -1,994 312 368 432

Provisions for tax

INVESTING ACTIVITIES

Acquisition And Construction Of Properties-23,782 -20,343 -17,569 -12,373 -7,169 -10,725 -8,261 -12,743 -13,095 -14,816

Purchase Of Other Fixed Assets -212 -218 -223 -229 -234 -265 -300 -339 -384 -434

Grants 1,304 1,756 1,470

Sales Of Properties 891 510 526 543 559 649 750 865 995 1,142

Sales Of Other Fixed Assets

Net Cash From Investment

Activities -21,799 -18,295 -15,796 -12,059 -6,844 -10,342 -7,810 -12,217 -12,484 -14,108

Net Cash Before Financing -10,997 -7,238 -8,144 -6,338 4,302 4,066 11,361 6,889 8,151 6,318

FINANCING

Loan Drawdowns

Capital Repayments -12,500 -10,000

Loan Working Capital -476 7,238 20,644 6,338 -4,302 5,934 -11,361

Net Cash From Financing -476 7,238 8,144 6,338 -4,302 -4,066 -11,361

BALANCE BROUGHT FORWARD 11,474 0 0 0 0 0 0 28,492 60,420 97,705

INCOME LESS PAYMENTS -11,474 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,889 8,151 6,318

CLOSING BANK POSITION 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35,381 68,571 104,023

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Appendix III– Sensitivity Analysis

Business Plan Sensitivity Analysis Summary

Properties

developed

within plan

Peak

Debt £m

Peak

Debt

Year

Debt

Repayment

Year

Minimum

Interest

Cover

Minimum

Interest

Cover

Year

Maximum

Debt per

Unit

Maximum

Debt per

Unit Year

<£87.5m >255% <£8,228

Base Assumptions 2015/16 390 84.244 2018/19 2031/32 200% 2018/19 £8,091 2018/19

1Increase RPI/CPI +1% 390 84.203 2018/19 2030/31 206% 2018/19 £8,087 2018/19

2Decrease RPI/CPI -1% 390 84.282 2018/19 2033/34 193% 2018/19 £8,095 2018/19

3Increase interest rates +

1% 390 85.975 2018/19 2033/34 180% 2018/19 £8,257 2018/19

4Rents at CPI + 0% year 2

(CPI 0% rent impact)390 85.573 2018/19 2033/34 190% 2018/19 £8,219 2018/19

5 Rents at CPI + 0% years 2-

30 390 162.614 2044/45 N/A 116% 2044/45 £16,439 2044/45

6Increase Voids and Bad

debts +1% 390 86.276 2018/19 2031/32 188% 2018/19 £8,286 2018/19

7 Additional cost of £250k

per annum from year 2 390 85.091 2018/19 2031/32 194% 2018/19 £8,172 2018/19

8Additional cost of £2m in

year 2 390 86.546 2018/19 2031/32 196% 2018/19 £8,312 2018/19

9Increase development

costs by 10% 390 87.825 2018/19 2031/32 193% 2018/19 £8,435 2018/19

10

No property sales

throughout plan (incl RTB /

RTA) 390 95.874 2018/19 2031/32 184% 2018/19 £9,155 2018/19

11Remove uncommitted

development units 256 73.732 2018/19 2029/30 226% 2018/19 £7,170 2018/19

12Maximise 30 Year

Development Programme 1024 87.495 2018/19 2044/45 198% 2018/19 £8,384 2018/19

13

Develop an additional 100

properties per annum from

year 5 2990 223.543 2042.43 N/A 200% 2018/19 £18,290 2042.43

14

Welfare reform measures

withdrawn, Bad

debts/voids/arrears each

reduced by 1% 390 80.073 2018/19 2029/30 226% 2018/19 £7,690 2018/19

15Combinations of 1, 3, 5, 6,

7 and 8 above 390 331.258 2044/45 N/A 63% 2044/45 £33,488 2044/45

Loan Covenant Target* Once financial plan is approved by RBS the base covenants will become the loan covenant targets

The Peak Debt target is the existing arranged facility

Scenario

Loan Covenant Target*

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BASE PLAN DEBT CURVE

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Appendix IV – The Thirteen Group Leadership Team

Alison Thain, Group Chief Executive

Alison has worked in the Tees Valley for over 15 years, beginning as Chief Executive of Cleveland & Teesside Housing Society. In April 2008, Alison became the Chief Executive of Fabrick Housing Group, a strategic partnership of Tees Valley Group, Erimus Housing and Newcastle based Norcare.

Alison also holds a number of non-executive directorships throughout the North East, including Tees Valley Unlimited, and is also Vice Chair of Darlington Building Society. Alison was awarded the OBE in 2004. She is an Executive Board Director of Thirteen Group.

Heather Ashton, Group Director of Resources Heather is responsible for the financial and corporate services of the new Group including HR, IT, compliance, legal services and governance.

Responsible for overall financial viability, Heather ensures effective treasury and funding arrangements and leads on risk and assurance.

Susan Bickerton, Group Director of Care and Support Susan leads on all aspects of individualised care and support across the Thirteen Group, with the exception of elderly services. With strong strategic relationships with local authorities, local health commissioners and other support providers, she oversees existing contracts as well as generating new business. Susan is also the Lead Executive and a Board Director for Thirteen Care & Support.

Martin Hawthorne, Group Director of Development and Regeneration Martin is responsible for developing and leading on all new build and acquisitions for the new Group. He also leads on regeneration activities and the strategic property function. Martin is the Lead Executive and a Board Director for Tees Valley Housing Ltd

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Dave Pickard, Group Director of Operations Dave leads on all aspects of managing social and affordable housing within the Group, including services for the elderly. Responsible for income collection, tenancy and neighbourhood management, Dave ensures strong neighbourhood partnerships and high quality service delivery to customers. He is the Lead Executive and a Board Director for Tristar Homes.

Chris Smith, Group Director of Business Development Chris leads on business growth, developing commercial aspects of the business and opportunities for joint ventures with others. She also takes responsibility for the Group’s Corporate Social Responsibility and our contribution to addressing social and economic inequalities. Chris is the Lead Executive and a Board Director for Erimus Housing

Group Director of Property Services Currently vacant and to be appointed

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Appendix V – Tristar Homes Board Directors

Mark Simpson Chair Dr Mark Simpson is Dean of the School of Social Sciences, Business & Law at Teesside University and a Principal Fellow of the Higher Education Academy. He is the author of a number of texts in the areas of crime, criminal justice & drug use and is a Director of the British Society of Criminology. He is a Governor at a local primary School, a Sixth Form College and the University. He is Chair of Tees Valley Leisure and is also a Local Ambassador for the Prince’s Trust. He was born in Stockton on Tees and lives in Ingleby Barwick with his family. In his spare time he loves the great outdoors. Mark joined the Board as Chair in September 2014.

Tina Large Tina has been involved in voluntary work since 1999 and has found it very rewarding. She has been on Thornaby Town Council since 2003 and is Ward Councillor for Mandale and Victoria Ward in Thornaby since 2007. Tina sits on Stockton Borough Council’s Licensing Committee, and is the Vice Chairman of the Executive Scrutiny Committee at Stockton Borough Council and is also a member of the Housing and Community Safety Committee. She is also Vice Chair of the Stockton Renaissance Eastern Area Regeneration Partnership Board. As a corporate parent she also finds it very rewarding in her role doing corporate parenting visits to young children’s homes in the borough. Tina has also been a magistrate since 2009, a role that she finds very rewarding.

Steve Nelson Councillor Nelson is Stockton Council’s Cabinet Member for Housing and Community Safety. He is a member of the Safer Stockton and Housing and Neighbourhood Partnerships and a member of Cleveland’s Crime and Police Panel. He is also a Governor at Frederick Nattrass School.

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Norma Stephenson OBE Councillor Stephenson joined the Tristar Board in June 2013. She is a Labour Councillor for the Hardwick Ward, elected in May 2011. Councillor Stephenson is Chair of the Cleveland Police and Crime Panel and Vice Chair of the Children & Young People Select Committee. Other Council Bodies she sits on include the Members Advisory Panel, Members Advisory Panel – New Constitution, Planning Committee and the Regeneration and Transport Select Committee. Councillor Stephenson is also involved with the Association of North East Councils and is a Governing Body Representative for Harrow Gate Primary School. She is also a Youth Offending Panel Member.

Annette Clark Annette is a former Director of Aviva plc. During her 20 years with Aviva she led both the Human Resources and Operations (Customer Services) functions, leading business units of 7000 employees based across the UK and overseas. Annette has an L.L.B., and particular interest in all aspects of Employment Law. Born and raised in Durham, Annette has recently returned to the region to raise her young family and focus on her new role as an Independent Board Director and Consultant. Annette joined the Board in September 2014 and also sits on the Audit and Risk Committee.

Paul Thomas Paul lives in Stockton and has been actively involved with the community since 1994. His involvement, initially at local level has progressed to borough-wide and regional level. Paul joined the new-style Tristar Shadow Board in November 2009. Before joining the Board he was Vice-Chair for the Housing Futures Customer Group which was formed to help to shape the future of Tristar.

Michelle Bendelow Michelle joined the Tristar Homes Board as a Tenant Board Director in September 2012. She has been involved with Tristar Homes for approximately four years through the Reaching Out Area Panel and the Customer Panel. Michelle is a trainee counsellor and is a volunteer for Victim Support. She sits on the local residents committee and is also on the committee of the Billingham Silhouettes Marching Jazz Band.

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Denise Ross Denise joined the Tristar Board in September 2012 as a Tenant Board Director, and has been a member of Tristar’s Customer Involvement Group for four years. She is also Chair of Vela’s Diversity Group, A Voice for Action. She has a degree in accounting and her special interest lies in finance. Denise has lived in the area since 1976 and is very pro-active in the community, particularly with visually impaired people. She is a representative for the RNIB North East, also being involved in their sub committees which provide advice for shopping, travel and money projects. She is Chair of the Customer Panel for Avalon, making suggestions to charity trustees on how to involve their clients in strategy and now trains their new recruits from a general customer perspective. Denise is also involved with Action for Blind People, having been asked to attend a steering group dealing with hotels particularly for visually impaired people. Denise is also an Olympian, winning a gold medal in the Discus event and silver medal for the shot put at the Seoul Olympics in 1988. She also won a bronze medal for the discus event at the 1992 Barcelona Olympics. She still competes once a year in some Rotary Games and sits on the Board for the Olympic Games. Denise is also part of a group called NEET which meets to discuss transport for all disabled people. She is also involved in the interview process at Teesside University’s School of Health for students on social work and occupational health courses.

Glen Rudd Glen has been involved with Tristar Homes since 2002 when it was an ALMO to the present day. He is involved with several of Tristar’s focus groups as a customer representative and has now joined the Board of Tristar Homes as a Tenant Board Director in September 2012. Glen is Chair of the Hardwick Residents Association. He previously enjoyed being a tenant inspector for Tristar.

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Neil Pattison Neil joined the Tristar Homes Board at the start of 2015. He is an experienced senior executive with Cummins Inc., based in Darlington with responsibilities for global business for the group across a portfolio of products. Having been with Cummins for over 17 years, and previously with Electrolux in Spennymoor, Neil has a track record of delivering results in highly competitive service, engineering and manufacturing environments in major international organisations. He is now looking to utilise these skills and experiences for the benefit of Tristar Homes. Neil was born in Bishop Auckland and currently living in Newton Aycliffe with his young family. He is widely travelled but has always been resident in the North East. Has a BEng (Hons) in Electrical and Electronic Engineering from Northumbria University and a MBA from Durham University.

Executive Director

Dave Pickard Group Director of Operations

http://www.thirteengroup.co.uk/profiles/leadership-team#dave-pickard

business plan 2015 tristar homes limited

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