Sales forecasting with SAS Advanced Analyticsfor the Pharmaceutical sector.

A business case

Blue BI is a growing company that provides IT consulting in the Business Intelligence &Analytics environment.

Our mission is turn data into actionable insights: we help organisations to take fasterand smarter decisions and tackle the most complex business issues.

Blue BI offers a comprehensive set of Business Intelligence end to end services, fromPOC’s to Application Management, in the following areas:

Corporate Performance ManagementBusiness Intelligence & AnalyticsData Warehousing

Our organisation our organization is formed by a group of professionals with morethan ten years of experience, located in our offices of Milan, Turin and Rome.

Blue BI: Company Profile

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Blue BI’s deep business and technology experience combined with the wide range ofSAS applications, delivers to the market a competitive offer based on the followingelements:

Extensive expertise in some industries (i.e. Life Sciences) and delivery capabilities

Functional and technological competences on SAS® software solutions

Flexible and scalable approach based on tangible and proven results

Usage of predefined data model as project accelerator: BBI x Pharma

Option for Cloud and SaaS (Software as a Service ) system deployment

Blue BI: SAS Partnership

Blue BI S.r.l.3

Blue BI plans and builds Business Intelligence & Analytics systems in several industries , with a specific focus inLife Sciences, where we can include among our customers some of the most important domestic and foreignorganisations .

Our specialisation is based on the following distinguishing elements:

extensive and long lasting experience on the specific business processes and analytics needs

Effective implementations of reporting& analytics systems in several areas, such as:• Sales Forecasting• Sales Analysis (Internal/External)• Geo Marketing Integration and market research• Social media analysis• CRM Analytics Sales Force / Field Force Effectiveness• Planning & Control• Logistics analytics

Mobile applications

Cloud & Software as A Service deployment

Blue BI and the Life Sciences industry: BBI x Pharma

BBI x PHARMA

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Is a combined analysis of qualitative and quantitative componentsaimed to predict the sales performance, in the short, medium and long period.

Quantitative components: time series that provide evidences of pastperformance

Qualitative components: known or presumed elements whichare not represented by the time series

What is Sales Forecast ?

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To rely on the most possible accurate and reliable Forecast Model for sales allows you:- in the short period, to organize business functions and resources- in the long period, to plan investment programs- in general, to support strategic decisions

In a global and high competitive scenario, where markets are rapidly and constantly changing, forecast analysis is usefull especially in the short period. (6-12 months)

Why is Sales Forecast becoming increasingly important ?

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Business Case

Company: One of the world’s largest biotech companies, with more than 7,000 employees across six continents and a rapidly expanding product portfolio and a growing pipeline.

Business Area: The company provides medical product support across the Hospital Channel

Business Needs: Understanding the adoption of the existing products and predict adoption of new products allows to increase the customer service, adoption and eventually profitability

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Project Phases – Step 1

Visualize and Analyze the

Model

Apply Regression Algorithms

Collect and Analyze

HistoricalData Series

Collected 24 months «Internal» Sales data by Product / Territory / Region

Loading Dataset in SAS Forecast Server

Forecast Model Review

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Project Phases – Step 1

Visualize and Analyze the

Model

Apply Regression Algorithms

Collect and Analyze

HistoricalData Series

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Project Phases – Step 2

Stock Estimate using IMS Sales compared to «Internal» Sales

Daily Average Consumption evaluation

Stock optimization index calculation

Load the Stock optimization index in SAS Forecast Server as a regressor

Visualize and Analyze the

Model

Collect and Analyze

HistoricalData Series

Apply Regression Algorithms

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Stock Estimate using IMS Sales compared to «Internal» Sales

Daily Average Consumption evaluation

Stock optimization index calculation

Load the Stock optimization index in SAS Forecast Server as a regressor

Project Phases – Step 2

Before regression….

...after regression

Visualize and Analyze the

Model

Collect and Analyze

HistoricalData Series

Apply Regression Algorithms

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Project Phases – Step 3

Visualize and Analyze the

Model

Apply Regression Algorithms

Collect and Analyze

HistoricalData Series

Import Predictive Model in SAS Visual Analytics

Visualize and Analyze the results

Analyze the model generates new questions

Refine the Predictive Model with new regressions

Validate the analysis and decision support

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Project Phases – Step 3

Visualize and Analyze the

Model

Apply Regression Algorithms

Collect and Analyze

HistoricalData Series

From analysis to delivery in 1 month

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Predict Adoption for new products

The issue:- Lack of an appropriate time series ( <24 months)

Solution:- Time series of a product with equivalent sales characteristics- Implementation of a configurable growth curve

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Technical Architecture

27/7 server availability

SAS licenses deployed in SaaS mode

Support services included in the periodic fees

End to end Blue BI support: Project implementation, Application and System management

Business Continuity: high availability, fault Tolerance, Disaster Recovery, …

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Benefits Strong improvement of the Sales Forecast accuracy

Quick R.O.I in terms of enhanced effectiveness in the sales and distribution processes

Reaction time increase: better time-to-market

More compliance with corporate requirements

Users empowerment, better understanding of the business processes

Full automated forecasting process, previously costly and totally hand made (Excel), with:o Automatic selection of the best statistical modelo Manual override opportunity to manage not predictable qualitative elements from the statistical model

(i.e. new competitor product launch)

Low cost and flexible technical infrastructure with no impact on the corporate governance guidelines Blue BI S.r.l.

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Q & A

Please contact us at marketing@bluebi.it

Milano

Via Caldera, 21Palazzo C320153 Milano

Tel. +39 02 40916905

Torino

Corso Filippo Turati, 1010128 Torino

Tel. +39 011 19909494

Roma

Via Giambattista Vico, 3100196 Roma

Tel. +39 06 32101400

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