burson-marsteller insight
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Thursday 3 May was a good day for the Labour Party and its leader, Ed Miliband (right), as it gained 823 local council seats across the UK, and took control of 32 additional councils. There were elections in 128 English councils, all 32 Scottish councils, 21 Welsh councils and in the Greater London Authority. Aside from the London mayoral election, which was largely a contest of personalities who eclipse their own parties, the day belonged to Labour.TRANSCRIPT
Thursday 3 May was a good day for the Labour Party
and its leader, Ed Miliband (right), as it gained 823 local
council seats across the UK, and took control of 32
additional councils.
There were elections in 128 English councils, all 32
Scottish councils, 21 Welsh councils and in the Greater
London Authority. Aside from the London mayoral
election, which was largely a contest of personalities
who eclipse their own parties, the day belonged to
Labour.
The Westminster coalition government was left
battered by a loss of more than 400 council seats for
the Conservatives and of 330 for their junior partner in
the UK government, the Liberal Democrats.
General mid-term election blues were compounded by
a backlash against the Government by voters angry at
the bite of austerity as the UK enters a double-dip
recession. The saving grace for the Conservative Party
was that it kept hold of the keys to London’s City Hall,
with the re-election of Boris Johnson as Mayor.
The turnout, at just 32%, was one of the lowest in local
elections for more than a decade.
In London, the Conservative candidate, Boris Johnson, beat
Labour’s Ken Livingstone to win a second term as mayor. The final
margin of victory was just three percentage points (after adding
the ’second preference’ votes of supporters of the other
candidates who were eliminated after the first round of counting).
It seems that the Conservative Party dragged down the vote of
the popular Mr Johnson (simply known as ‘Boris’) and the Labour
Party pushed up the vote of the unpopular Mr Livingstone (also
universally known by his first name). These dynamics made for a
close (if unusual) contest.
Mr Livingstone struggled in his battle to create a contest that was
about policy rather than personality. Mr Johnson’s campaign was
more polished than it was four years ago, yet he continues to be
loved by many Londoners for his personality and charisma. Boris
generated headlines by swearing in a television interview, but this
unbrushed approach helped secure his image as a maverick. His
fiercely independent political style as Mayor has also helped to
distance him from the wider Conservative Party and the
government.
Mr Livingstone also made several gaffes - weeping at his own
election video did not help overturn the perception that he takes
himself too seriously. His decision to go after Boris on the issue of
tax evasion ultimately backfired. Ken’s flagship ‘Fare Deal’ policy
(which promised to cut transport fares by seven per cent, saving
some Londoners £1,000 a year) came under fire for not being
properly costed - a charge leveled and several other pledges too.
Ultimately, Mr Livingstone was seen by many as a tired candidate
and was punished at the ballot box - not least by Labour
supporters, who abandoned him in droves.
The Liberal Democrat candidate, Brian Paddick, secured less than
half the votes he received in 2008, and fell into fourth position,
behind the Green Party's Jenny Jones.
The uniqueness of the mayoral contest was confirmed by the
elections to the London Assembly (the body that scrutinises the
work of the Mayor). Labour won 12 of the 25 seats, making gains
from the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and the far-right
British National Party.
Across the rest of England the Labour Party gained 22 councils
and held the 39 councils they already controlled. The result is a
boost for the Labour leader, Ed Miliband, who has faced criticism
that he has failed to make an impact as Leader of the Opposition.
His welcome of the results was measured. He said, "We are a
party winning back people's trust, regaining ground, but there is
more work to do.”
The Conservatives lost control of ten councils, many of them to
Labour or to ‘no overall control’ (with no single party having a
majority). The Liberal Democrats were further punished for their
role in the coalition government at Westminster: the number of
LibDem councillors has fallen below 3,000 for the first time in the
party's history.
Respect, a left-wing party formed in the wake of the invasion of
Iraq in 2003, unseated the Labour leader of Bradford City Council,
and took five seats.
The far right did badly. The British National Party losing all of its
six seats whilst the Greens party secured five additional
councillors.
The local elections were also paired with a series of referenda in
the UK’s largest cities. Voters were asked if they wanted a London
-style directly-elected mayor, as part of the Westminster
government’s ’localism agenda’.
Most of the big cities said no. Birmingham, Sheffield, Nottingham,
Manchester, Bradford, Coventry, Wakefield, Leeds and Newcastle-
upon-Tyne all voted against the creation of a directly-elected
mayor.
Only Bristol voted in favour of having an elected mayor -
although turnout was just 24.1%. Doncaster voted to retain its
mayor, having been one of the earliest authorities to adopt the
mayoral system in 2001.
In Wales, Labour had its best results since 1996, retaking control
of former strongholds that it had lost in 2008 (including Cardiff,
Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil, Newport and
Swansea).
The Welsh Conservatives lost 61 seats in Wales, and lost control
of councils in Monmouthshire and the Vale of Glamorgan. The
Liberal Democrats were punished even harder, losing 66 seats.
The Welsh nationalist party, Plaid Cymru, also had a bad election.
It lost 41 council seats across Wales, and also lost control of one
council.
In Scotland, the picture was somewhat different. The Scottish
National Party (SNP), which has a majority in the Scottish
Parliament and runs the Scottish Government, won the most seats
across the 32 authorities, increasing its number of councillors by
57 and winning their first majorities on two councils, Dundee and
Angus.
Labour also gained control of two additional councils in Scotland,
including Scotland’s largest city, Glasgow, where is denied the
SNP one of its top targets. Labour gained 58 councillors to bring
its total to 394.
The other winners in Scotland were the Greens, who boosted
their tally by six councillors, to bring them to a total of 14.
The losers were, once again, the coalition parties, with the
Conservatives losing 16 seats and the Liberal Democrats more
than 80 - half of the party’s representation in local government in
Scotland. Losers included the LibDem leader of Edinburgh
Council, Jenny Dawe.
With the exception of London, the fallout from these elections
does not bode well for the coalition government of David
Cameron’s Conservatives and Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats.
This week, the pair is attempting to 'relaunch’ the coalition with a
joint event and the Queen's Speech, which unveils the
government’s legislative programme for the next year.
Privately, most of the losses for the Conservatives will be
dismissed as inevitable mid-term blues. The overall share of the
vote – 38% for Labour and 31% for the Conservatives - was more
favourable to the Conservatives than the pre-election opinion
polls had suggested and not as crushing as Labour’s mid-term
election defeat under Gordon Brown in 2008.
Mr Cameron does face some internal problems, with some of his
parliamentary party calling on him to move further to the right,
with an even tougher line on cuts and on the UK’s role in the
European Union.
The Prime Minister is unlikely to move too far, as it could risk the
pact with the Liberal Democrats. One measure in the Queen’s
Speech - reform of the upper house of Parliament, the House of
Lords, to make it democratically elected - is dear to the Liberal
Democrats but opposed by many Conservatives. Mr Cameron will
need to steer a steady course.
The Liberal Democrats – who polled at 16% - appear to be
suffering a far deeper crisis that will quite possibly see them
decimated as a UK political force by the next general election in
2015 without a significant change of tack.
At a time when the election results of other EU member states
supposedly point to economic cataclysm and the end of the euro,
Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg insist that the UK must stay on the
path of austerity. Companies remain confident despite the British
economy entering a double-dip recession, possibly because there
is certainty about the economic course.
The prime minister will say that, with the eurozone in extreme
trouble, it is more important than ever for Britain to stick to the
government’s plan to tackle the deficit.
For Ed Milliband this election has been the lifeline he needs but
questions will remain over whether he has what it takes to return
the Labour Party to power in the next General Election.
UK local elections
London Mayoral election
Local elections