bureau of transportation statistics: freight data and decision-making tools talking freight seminar...
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Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Freight Data and Freight Data and Decision-Making ToolsDecision-Making Tools
Talking Freight Seminar SeriesSeptember 17, 2003
Felix Ammah-Tagoe, Ph.D.Senior Research Consultant
Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Outline
Overview of Freight Data and Analysis
Updates of Existing Surveys and Data Programs
GeoFreight – The Intermodal Freight Display Tool
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Overview of Freight Data and Analysis
Domestic International
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Domestic freight is increasing significantly and planning for future changes in demand a priority
Freight traffic expected to continue to grow from both domestic activity and international trade
Freight related safety concerns are growing
Heightened security concerns and new requirements will impact freight flows
Overview of Key Freight Issues
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Overview of Key Freight Issues
Near real-time freight traffic data for Freight operations Security operations at state and sub-
state levels
More timely data for market share analysis
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Brief Analytical Trends
Overall Growth Factors of growth Modal Shares
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1975 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Ind
ex (
1975=1.0
)
Domestic Ton-Miles, Gross Domestic Product, and Resident Population
Real GDP
Ton-miles
Population
Ton-miles per dollar of GDP
Ton-miles per capita
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Growth in Domestic Freight Ton-Miles (Index 1975=1.0)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1975 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Ind
ex
(1
97
5=
1.0
)
Intercity truck
Air carrier
Pipeline
Water
Class I rail
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Modal Shares of U.S. Freight Shipments
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Value Tons Ton-miles
Pe
rce
nt
Truck (private and for-hire) Parcel, postal and courier
Water Air (including truck and air)
Rail (includes truck and rail) Pipeline
Other and unknown
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Change in Value of U.S. Freight Shipments by Mode
1993 1997 1993-1997
Mode(billions of
1997 dollars)(billions of
1997 dollars)Percent change
All modes 6,335 6,944 10 Air (includes truck and air) 151 229 52 Parcel, postal, or courier 610 856 40 Rail 268 320 19 Pipeline 97 114 17 Water 67 76 14 Truck 4,772 4,982 4 Truck and rail 90 76 -16Truck and water 10 8 -19Rail and water 4 2 -54Other and unknown modes 266 283 6 Source: CFS data only.
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Share of Domestic & International Freight (16 billion tons, $10 trillion )
0
20
40
60
80
100
Domestic International
Tons Value
Source: USDOT BTS, U.S. International Trade and Freight Transportation Trends, 2003.
Over 16 billion tons of freight move on the nation’s freight system
Domestic accounts for 90 percent of tonnage and 82 percent of value
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
BTS Domestic Freight Data Sources
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
BTS Freight Data Sources
Surveys Commodity Flow Survey (CFS)
American Freight Survey (AFS) initiative
Administrative Data Trade and Transportation data Waterborne Commerce Statistics Expanded access to PIERS data
Carrier Reporting Motor Carrier Financial & Operating Data Office of Airline Information
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
CFS: Status 1993, 1997, 2002 (CTS before these)
Conducted by BTS through the Census Bureau
Provides data on how much freight moves by ALL modes of freight transportation in the United States, including multimodal
BTS Freight Data Sources
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
CFS: Uses and Relevance Data on private and for-hire trucking for
both intercity and local shipments.
The primary source of nationwide data on the flow of goods, the geography of the movements, and the distance of shipments.
CFS Data used to assess and analyze regional flow density, capacity, congestion, and hazardous material movements.
BTS Freight Data Sources
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
CFS 2002: Scope and Coverage 50K establishments out of 800K
2002 CFS same industry coverage as previous surveys (manufacturing, mining, wholesale, and selected retail businesses)
Data on commodities shipped, their value, weight, and mode of transportation, as well as the origins and destinations of shipments
BTS Freight Data Sources
Universe of Freight Flows by Sector
Manufacturing
Wholesale
Retail
Services
Construction
Agric (farms&fishery)
Mining
Exports
U.S. Government (Federal, State, and Local) U.S. Households
U.S. affiliates of foreign firms in the U.S.
Landbridge traffic
U.S. Mail
Imports
Major Flow in CFS
Minor Flow in CFS
Major Flow not in CFS
Minor Flow not in CFS
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
CFS 2002: Timeline and Products Data collection: ____ Calendar year 2002 Data processing: ___ Ongoing as collection Analysis: _________ Calendar year 2003 Preliminary results: _ December 2003 Final products: ____ December 2004 Geographic: ______ National level data,
States and selected Metropolitan Areas
BTS Freight Data Sources
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
BTS Freight Data Sources Though the CFS is the most comprehensive
national and state level data currently available, it is done every five years as part of the Economic Census
Desirable geographic detail not supported by sample design and size
Coverage excludes key freight sectors
Also excludes transportation costs, travel times, and other freight-related variables
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
BTS Freight Data Sources
Major gaps in knowledge
Value Tons Ton-miles Value per ton MilesSource (billion dollars) (millions) (billions) Value Tons Ton-miles (dollars) per ton
Commodity Flow Survey 6,944 11,090 2,661 81.1 74.9 69.1 626 240
Supplemental estimatesa 1,623 3,710 1,190 18.9 25.1 30.9 437 321
BTS totalb 8,567 14,800 3,851 100.0 100.0 100.0 579 260
Percent
SOURCE: BTS TSAR 2000
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
CFS: Policy Relevance
National Level Benchmark and trend data for supply
and demand of freight movements Relative roles of each mode, and
intermodal movements Evaluating capacity of system to
serve freight demand Basis for forecasts of freight growth Identifying infrastructure bottlenecks
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
CFS: Policy Relevance
State and Local Planners, engineers, and executives Forecasting of transportation needs Assessment of facility investment
requirements However, national-level data difficult
to use for state and local planning Geographically-specific domestic
freight data by mode
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
CFS: Policy Relevance
Greater geographic detail Corridor level demand and use State and local transportation of
international trade Trade related data by industry
groups not only by commodity groups
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
CFS: Business Relevance
More timely Market segments – demand & supply Specific modal and commodity detail Performance rates – revenue/costs
per ton-mile Real-time and near-real-time data
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Detail public-use flow data Through traffic – to, from, within state,
and county-to-county Flows for destinations by mode and
commodity for local areas beyond top MAs
Domestic movements of international trade
State & Local Freight Data Needs
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Add-on questions to future national freight program to provide more detail at state and local level
Continuous measurement Assisting state and local data users
with tools, such as FAF and GeoFreight Designing consistent freight data
collection template for possible use at local level
Options for Meeting State and Local Needs
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Beyond surveys? costs, burden, timeliness
Data-driven models Information from service providers
Canadian prototype Administrative information from
traffic control and management systems?
Today’s Options on Changing Sources of Freight Data
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
CFS: Data Accessibility
Confidentiality requirements has limited access and use
Sample size reductions directly impacted geographic specificity
Accessing and retrieving publicly available data needs improvement
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Need for collected data to keep track of and keep up with major changes, including:
Overall growth in freight activity Impacts on system capacity, bottlenecks,
and congestion Infrastructure use Changes in logistical and routing patterns Overall performance of freight system
Back to Relevance
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Freight Data: Looking Forward
Beyond the 2002 CFS Survey BTS is looking beyond the 2002 CFS
survey and embracing the opportunity to provide improved data to the users
Data that fills the data gaps and better measures changing freight trends
Corridor level data that can be used to obtain estimates for individual ports and intermodal terminals
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
American Freight Survey Freight data users are calling for an
expanded and more timely freight survey Expanded industry coverage Better geographic detail Detailed micro-data for corridor-level
analysis Public-use data that meets sound
disclosure requirements
Domestic Freight Data: Beyond the CFS
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
U.S. International Trade & Transportation Data
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
U.S. International Trade & Transportation: Trade Data Multimodal Trade and Transportation Data
Overall statistics: U.S. Census Bureau Maritime: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and
Maritime Administration Air: U.S. Census Special Tabulations Land: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
“Transborder Surface Freight Data” Available since 1993; Monthly and Annual
Data “Border Crossing and Entry Data”
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
U.S. International Trade & Transportation: Transborder Surface Freight Data
Data Elements: Method of Transportation Weight (Imports only) Value Commodity Classification (2-digit HS) State and Province in US, Canada and Mexico Port of Entry or Exit Freight Charges Container Code
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
U.S. International Trade & Transportation: Data Issues
Trade data Weight data--various issues Method of Transportation only at port of entry/exit
(no multimodal data) Method of Transportation definitions and time series
gaps Under-representation of air shipments Concerns about port definitions (Customs ports vs.
physical infrastructure) Concerns about origins and destinations
Accuracy (physical flows vs. “administrative” flows) Lack of metropolitan area level o/d data
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
U.S. International Trade & Transportation: Critical Questions
What is the magnitude of U.S. international trade, and what are the modal roles? How has this changed over time and why?
What are the geographic patterns of U.S. international trade, and what factors influence these?
How does the U.S. transportation sector impact international trade, and how is it, in turn, impacted by trade?
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
U.S. International Trade & Transportation: Critical Questions
Which are the key gateways and corridors servicing U.S. international trade flows, and how does trade impact them? Infrastructure, capacity, institutional and
security issues How will already changing trade
relationships and the new security environment affect trade levels, partners, the transport sector, and key gateways and corridors?
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Analytical Projects: Major Interpretive Reports
U.S. International Trade and Freight Transportation Trends Report
Importance of U.S. International Freight in U.S. Economy
Trends and Shifts in U.S. International Freight: 1990-2002
Trends in U.S. International Trade in Transportation-Related Goods
Trends in U.S. International Transportation Services Trade
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
U.S. International Trade and Freight Transportation Trends
2002 held steady, while exports declined
Mode 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 Total Exports Imports
Water 718 729 199 191 520 538 1.5 -3.9 3.6Air 519 498 251 225 267 273 -3.9 -10.4 2.3Truck 395 398 192 189 204 209 0.6 -1.4 2.5Rail 93 92 23 24 69 68 -0.8 3.2 -2.2Pipeline 26 23 0.5 1 26 22 -14.6 43.4 -15.7Other and unknown 121 117 65 63 57 54 -3.7 -3.2 -4.3Total, all modes 1,873 1,857 731 693 1,142 1,164 -0.9 -5.2 1.9
Percent change, 2001-2002Total trade Exports Imports
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
U.S. International Trade and Freight Transportation Trends Report
Importance of Trade in U.S. Economy Substantial
Growth in Value of U.S. International Merchandise Trade over Three Decades
U.S. International Merchandise Trade and GDP: 1970-2001 (in current dollars)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Ind
ex o
f cu
rren
t d
ollars
(1970=100)
Merchandise trade
GDP
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
U.S. International Trade and Freight Transportation Trends Report
Trade growth impacts U.S. transportation networks and facilities
Movement of international freight contributes to highway congestion, environmental challenges, and safety concerns
Managing and maintaining transportation infrastructure (major gateways and corridors) require large sums of public investment
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
U.S. International Trade and Freight Transportation Trends Report
Shifts in Direction of Trade
Over 75 percent of value of U.S. trade with 15 countries
Nearly one-third with Canada and Mexico
Rising importance of Mexico (2nd ranked) and China (4th ranked)
Top 25 U.S. International Merchandise Trade Partners by Value: 1970 - 2001 (million current $)
Rank 1970 Rank 1980 Rank 1990 Rank 2001 Country Total 2001
1 1 1 1 Canada 380,693
5 3 3 2 Mexico 232,942
2 2 2 3 Japan 184,241
24 10 4 China 1 121,515
3 4 4 5 Germany 2 89,265
4 5 5 6 U.K. 82,195
17 13 7 7 South Korea57,381
15 9 6 8 Taiwan 51,543
7 7 8 9 France 50,191
6 11 9 10 Italy 33,740
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
U.S. International Trade and Freight Transportation Trends Report
Modal Shares by Value and Weight
Over 1.6 billion tons moved in 2001, up 5 percent from 1997
Maritime leads by weight (78 percent) and value (38 percent)
Air accounted for 28 percent of the value and trucks had 21 percent and 11 percent of the tonnage
Modal Shares of U.S. International Merchandise Trade by Value and Weight: 2001
-
20
40
60
80
100
Water Air Truck Rail P ipeline Otherand
unknown
Value Weight
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Multimodal Gateways Substantial domestic
transportation activity is needed to move goods to and from U.S. air, land, and sea ports
The nation’s top gateways represent all freight modes
New York’s JFK was the top gateway overall by value
JFK was followed by Port of LA-Long Beach, Detroit border port, and Port of New York-New Jersey
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
GeoFreight
The Intermodal Freight Display Tool
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Bureau of Transportation Statistics Federal Highway Administration
Office of Intermodalism, USDOT
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Background GeoFreight is a geographic information and decision
support system An intermodal freight planning and policymaking
tool The enhanced version of the Intermodal Bottleneck
Evaluation Tool (IBET) Created by USDOT agencies:
Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) Office of Intermodalism, Office of the Secretary of
Transportation (OST) Office of Freight Management and Operations, Federal
Highway Administration (FHWA)
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
The GeoFreight System Helps policymakers and decisionmakers identify
current and potential major freight bottlenecks
Uses a routing model to assign data on freight flows to various transportation network
Displays relationships between freight movements and transportation infrastructure, traffic and delays
Identifies the flows of domestic and international freight across the nation
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
GeoFreight Can Be Used To
Display information on freight traffic flows by various modes (highway, rail, and water)
Examine freight activity at key access points (highway-seaport, highway-airport, and highway-rail terminal)
Analyze origins and destinations of freight movements on the highway, rail, and maritime networks
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Freight Movements on Highway: 1998
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Freight Movements on Highway: 2010
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Growth in Rail Freight Movement(2010 over 1998)
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Intensity of Rail Freight MovementsIn A Select Region
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Intensity of Rail Freight MovementsIn A Select Region (cont.)
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Multimodal Flows by Highway, Rail
and Water: 2010
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Origin/Destination Flow AnalysisFreight Movement on A Selected Segment (1)
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Origin/Destination Flow AnalysisFreight Movement on A Selected Segment (2)
Bureau of Transportation Statistics: www.bts.gov
Questions? Comments …
Felix Ammah-Tagoe, Ph.D.Senior Research Consultant
@ Bureau of Transportation Statistics
[email protected] 202.366.8926