bump for trump as carson fades in … for trump as carson fades in republican race, quinnipiac...

FOR RELEASE: DECEMBER 2, 2015

BUMP FOR TRUMP AS CARSON FADES IN REPUBLICAN RACE,

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS;

CLINTON, SANDERS SURGE IN MATCHUPS WITH GOP LEADERS

Eleven months before the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump is the undisputed leader in

the Republican field, as Dr. Ben Carson, in a virtual tie with Trump four weeks ago, drops to

third place, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today.

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton widens her lead over

Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont to 60 – 30 percent, compared to 53 – 35 percent in a November

4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll. Former Maryland

Gov. Martin O’Malley has 2 percent, with 6 percent undecided.

Trump gets 27 percent of Republican voters today, with 17 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio

of Florida, 16 percent each for Carson and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and 5 percent for former

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 8 percent undecided.

Last month, Trump had 24 percent, with 23 percent for Carson.

Among Republicans, 26 percent of voters say they “would definitely not support” Trump,

with 21 percent who would not back Bush.

“It doesn’t seem to matter what he says or who he offends, whether the facts are

contested or the ‘political correctness’ is challenged, Donald Trump seems to be wearing

Kevlar,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“Dr. Ben Carson, moving to center stage just one month ago, now needs some CPR. The

Doctor sinks. The Donald soars. The GOP, 11 months from the election, has to be thinking,

‘This could be the guy.’

“Secretary Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders have to be hoping Trump is the

GOP’s guy.”

-more-

Tim Malloy, Assistant Director,

Quinnipiac University Poll

(203) 645-8043

Rubenstein Associates, Inc.

Public Relations

Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026

2

Quinnipiac University Poll/December 2, 2015 – page 2

American voters shift to Clinton as the Democrat gains ground against Republicans:

47 – 41 percent over Trump, compared to 46 – 43 percent November 4;

Clinton at 45 percent to Rubio’s 44 percent, compared to a 46 – 41 percent Rubio lead

last month;

Clinton tops Cruz 47 – 42 percent, compared to Cruz at 46 percent to Clinton’s 43

percent last month;

Clinton at 46 percent to Carson’s 43 percent compared to Carson’s 50 – 40 percent lead

last month.

Sanders does just as well, or even better, against top Republicans:

Topping Trump 49 – 41 percent;

Getting 44 percent to Rubio’s 43 percent;

Beating Cruz 49 – 39 percent;

Leading Carson 47 – 41 percent.

Clinton has a negative 44 – 51 percent favorability rating. Other favorability ratings are:

Negative 35 – 57 percent for Trump;

40 – 33 percent for Carson;

44 – 31 percent for Sanders;

37 – 28 percent for Rubio;

33 – 33 percent for Cruz.

American voters say 60 – 36 percent that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. Trump is

not honest and trustworthy, voters say 59 – 35 percent. Sanders gets the best honesty grades

among top candidates, 59 – 28 percent, with Carson at 53 – 34 percent, Rubio at 49 – 33 percent

and Cruz at 43 – 39 percent.

All American voters say 63 – 32 percent, including 69 – 27 percent among independent

voters, that Clinton would have a good chance of beating the Republican nominee in a head-to-

head matchup.

Voters are divided 46 – 49 percent on whether Trump would have a good chance of

beating the Democratic nominee, with independent voters divided 47 – 48 percent.

From November 23 – 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,453 registered voters

nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines

and cell phones. The survey includes 672 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8

percentage points and 573 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public

opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia,

Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or

follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling

3

1. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for President were being

held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly

Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand

Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS......................

Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY

Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/

Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom

Bush 5% 1% 4% 6% 2% 7% 5% 5%

Carson 16 17 19 15 15 16 14 18

Christie 2 1 - - 2 4 2 2

Cruz 16 29 24 29 14 3 16 17

Fiorina 3 3 2 2 3 5 2 4

Gilmore - - - - - - - -

Graham - - - - - 1 - -

Huckabee 1 1 2 2 - - 1 -

Kasich 2 - - - 2 3 2 1

Pataki - - - - - 1 1 -

Paul 2 1 2 1 1 3 1 2

Rubio 17 12 13 11 26 15 17 16

Santorum - - - 1 - - - 1

Trump 27 29 24 25 25 31 30 24

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 2 2 -

DK/NA 8 5 8 8 8 8 7 10

MOST IMPORTANT FOR REP PRES NOMINEE Q70

Shares Strong Honest/

Values Leader Trustworthy

Bush 2% 2% 3%

Carson 23 10 17

Christie 1 4 1

Cruz 15 20 18

Fiorina 1 3 4

Gilmore - - -

Graham - - -

Huckabee 1 2 -

Kasich 2 2 1

Pataki - - 1

Paul 3 - -

Rubio 16 15 19

Santorum 1 1 -

Trump 27 30 21

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 2

DK/NA 8 9 12

Cont’d

4

1. (cont’d)(If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for President

were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie,

Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich,

George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, for whom would you

vote?


MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q72...........

Economy/ Foreign

Jobs Terrorism Policy

Bush 8% 5% 3%

Carson 12 19 17

Christie 3 1 5

Cruz 13 16 19

Fiorina 2 5 4

Gilmore - - -

Graham - - -

Huckabee 1 1 1

Kasich 3 1 1

Pataki 1 - -

Paul 2 - -

Rubio 17 18 22

Santorum - - 1

Trump 23 29 19

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2

DK/NA 13 7 4

1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your

mind before the primary?

REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS...............................

CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........................................

CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1.........................

Tot Carson Cruz Rubio Trump

Made up 32% 26% 33% 23% 46%

Might change 65 71 65 75 53

DK/NA 2 3 2 2 1

5

2. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) Are there any of these candidates you would

definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president: Bush, Carson,

Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Graham, Huckabee, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Rubio, Santorum,

or Trump? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)





Bush 21% 25% 17% 27% 20% 15% 23% 18%

Carson 10 2 3 11 7 13 10 9

Christie 13 13 9 14 14 11 15 10

Cruz 6 1 1 4 5 9 7 4

Fiorina 11 8 9 9 12 13 10 12

Gilmore 9 9 4 13 8 8 9 10

Graham 11 16 7 16 9 6 12 10

Huckabee 9 5 2 11 8 9 10 9

Kasich 13 16 9 21 11 7 14 13

Pataki 11 13 5 16 9 7 11 11

Paul 13 11 9 16 13 9 11 15

Rubio 5 5 3 7 4 5 6 4

Santorum 9 5 1 10 8 8 9 9

Trump 26 16 24 25 20 34 24 30

No/No one 30 32 32 28 34 27 31 28

DK/NA 6 5 5 4 5 10 6 6

3. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for President were being

held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, and Bernie Sanders,

for whom would you vote?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS..........

POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY

LIBERAL..... Mod/

Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom

Clinton 60% 48% 60% 62% 53% 65%

O'Malley 2 - 3 2 3 1

Sanders 30 47 33 24 39 23

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 - 2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 2

DK/NA 6 5 4 8 4 8

MOST IMPORTANT FOR DEM PRES NOMINEE Q69...........................

Shares Strong Honest/ Right

Values Leader Trustworthy Cares Experience

Clinton 58% 70% 44% 53% 81%

O'Malley 1 3 3 1 3

Sanders 31 24 39 39 6

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 5 - -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 1 -

DK/NA 7 2 8 6 9

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q71

Economy/ Foreign

Jobs Policy

Clinton 59% 64%

O'Malley 3 1

Sanders 31 23

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 -

DK/NA 5 12

6

3A. (If candidate chosen q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your

mind before the primary?

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS........

CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q3.................

CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q3

Tot Clinton Sanders

Mind made up 57% 62% 50%

Might change 41 37 49

DK/NA 1 2 1

4. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) Are there any of these candidates you would

definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president: Clinton, O'Malley, or

Sanders? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)



LIBERAL..... Mod/


Clinton 8% 2% 7% 11% 12% 6%

O'Malley 15 13 11 17 13 16

Sanders 7 - 5 11 5 9

No/No one 60 78 67 51 63 57

DK/NA 13 7 12 14 9 16

5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were

Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ben Carson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No

Clinton 46% 8% 89% 41% 39% 53% 54% 42%

Carson 43 84 7 42 49 37 39 45

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 4 1 10 7 5 4 7

DK/NA 4 2 2 6 4 4 1 5

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp

Clinton 49% 51% 48% 38% 32% 43% 38% 82% 74%

Carson 37 42 42 50 57 46 52 12 15

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 - -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 4 5 5 5 6 6 4 8

DK/NA 5 2 2 7 3 4 4 1 3

7


Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG


Clinton 47% 7% 91% 45% 39% 56% 55% 44%

Trump 41 82 7 37 49 33 34 45

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 2 2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 6 1 9 6 5 6 5

DK/NA 4 4 1 5 3 4 3 4

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Clinton 52% 50% 49% 39% 31% 45% 38% 87% 76%

Trump 32 42 44 46 57 43 50 7 13

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 - -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 9 4 4 6 6 6 6 4 5

DK/NA 3 2 3 7 4 3 4 2 5


Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG


Clinton 45% 7% 87% 40% 36% 53% 51% 41%

Rubio 44 89 8 41 51 37 43 45

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 1 10 6 4 3 6

DK/NA 5 1 2 8 5 4 2 6

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Clinton 45% 49% 47% 40% 30% 42% 36% 83% 69%

Rubio 38 44 43 52 59 49 54 10 18

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 - 3

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 3 5 3 6 4 5 2 5

DK/NA 8 3 3 4 3 5 4 5 5


Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG


Clinton 47% 8% 90% 43% 39% 55% 55% 43%

Cruz 42 87 5 39 50 34 38 44

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 2 1 2 2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 1 2 9 5 5 4 5

DK/NA 5 3 1 7 4 5 2 6

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Clinton 51% 50% 49% 39% 32% 45% 39% 84% 72%

Cruz 33 42 43 52 58 45 51 9 17

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 1 2 1 2 - -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 2 5 3 4 5 4 3 4

DK/NA 7 3 3 5 4 4 4 3 8

8


Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Ben Carson the Republican, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG


Sanders 47% 11% 84% 47% 41% 53% 52% 45%

Carson 41 81 6 40 48 35 41 42

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 5 5 6 4 7 4 7

DK/NA 5 3 4 6 5 5 2 6

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Sanders 60% 49% 46% 35% 35% 46% 40% 77% 72%

Carson 33 41 43 49 57 43 50 16 13

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 1 2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 9 5 6 4 6 5 3 6

DK/NA 5 1 4 7 3 4 4 3 7


Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG


Sanders 49% 11% 86% 52% 43% 55% 56% 46%

Trump 41 80 8 36 47 35 36 43

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 3 2 - 1 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 3 4 4 6 4 5

DK/NA 4 3 2 5 4 4 3 5

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Sanders 62% 49% 48% 40% 36% 47% 42% 82% 78%

Trump 29 43 45 45 54 43 48 13 11

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 - 1 1 2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 6 3 7 4 6 5 3 3

DK/NA 5 1 3 7 4 4 4 2 6


Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG


Sanders 44% 7% 81% 45% 39% 49% 48% 43%

Rubio 43 85 8 39 50 35 44 42

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 5 5 3 7 3 6

DK/NA 6 4 5 9 6 7 5 7

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Sanders 59% 46% 43% 33% 33% 40% 37% 80% 68%

Rubio 33 41 44 53 58 45 51 12 18

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 - -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 8 5 5 3 5 4 3 6

DK/NA 7 3 6 8 4 8 6 4 8

9


Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?

COLLEGE DEG


Sanders 49% 9% 87% 51% 43% 54% 54% 46%

Cruz 39 83 4 34 48 31 38 40

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 4 5 3 7 3 6

DK/NA 6 4 4 8 4 7 4 6

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Sanders 62% 50% 49% 34% 37% 45% 41% 86% 71%

Cruz 28 36 41 52 55 39 48 8 15

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 9 5 5 3 6 4 3 7

DK/NA 7 3 4 8 3 8 5 3 6

Q13-24. Summary Table - Is your opinion of [Candidate] favorable, unfavorable or haven't

you heard enough about him/her? Table ranked by net favorability (Favorable -

Unfavorable).

REGISTERED VOTERS.................

Hvn't

Fav Unfav hrdEn REF NetFav

Sanders 44 31 24 1 13

Rubio 37 28 34 1 9

Carson 40 33 25 1 7

Cruz 33 33 32 1 0

Fiorina 28 29 42 - -1

Kasich 19 23 57 1 -4

Clinton 44 51 3 2 -7

Huckabee 29 41 30 1 -12

Paul 23 40 36 1 -17

Christie 28 48 24 1 -20

Bush 32 54 12 2 -22

Trump 35 57 5 3 -22

REPUBLICANS.......................

Hvn't


Rubio 66 8 25 1 58

Cruz 65 9 26 - 56

Carson 67 13 19 1 54

Huckabee 56 18 27 - 38

Trump 64 27 6 3 37

Fiorina 49 17 33 - 32

Bush 53 34 11 2 19

Christie 43 31 25 1 12

Kasich 27 20 52 1 7

Paul 32 36 31 1 -4

DEMOCRATS.........................

Hvn't


Clinton 85 11 3 1 74

Sanders 68 7 24 1 61

10

13. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough

about her?

COLLEGE DEG


Favorable 44% 9% 85% 38% 36% 52% 50% 41%

Unfavorable 51 89 11 56 59 43 46 54

Hvn't hrd enough 3 2 3 5 4 3 2 4

REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Favorable 44% 45% 48% 39% 30% 41% 35% 84% 64%

Unfavorable 48 50 48 57 66 54 60 14 27

Hvn't hrd enough 5 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 9

REFUSED 3 2 - 2 1 2 1 - -

14. Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about

him?

COLLEGE DEG


Favorable 40% 67% 13% 44% 45% 36% 40% 41%

Unfavorable 33 13 54 32 31 36 47 27

Hvn't hrd enough 25 19 33 22 24 26 13 31

REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Favorable 31% 37% 42% 49% 49% 41% 45% 22% 20%

Unfavorable 32 39 36 26 30 38 34 45 25

Hvn't hrd enough 35 24 21 22 20 19 20 33 55

REFUSED 1 - 1 3 1 2 1 - -

15. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough

about him?

COLLEGE DEG


Favorable 35% 64% 10% 31% 41% 29% 27% 39%

Unfavorable 57 27 86 60 52 63 67 53

Hvn't hrd enough 5 6 3 5 5 6 3 6

REFUSED 3 3 - 3 2 3 2 3

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Favorable 23% 36% 39% 39% 47% 36% 42% 9% 9%

Unfavorable 69 57 56 49 45 54 50 87 84

Hvn't hrd enough 5 5 4 8 5 6 6 3 7

REFUSED 3 2 1 4 2 3 3 1 -

11

16. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough

about him?

COLLEGE DEG


Favorable 44% 15% 68% 47% 41% 46% 49% 41%

Unfavorable 31 58 7 29 36 26 31 31

Hvn't hrd enough 24 27 24 24 22 26 18 27

REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 1 1

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Favorable 59% 43% 43% 32% 39% 43% 41% 57% 60%

Unfavorable 22 30 32 40 41 32 36 11 16

Hvn't hrd enough 19 27 24 26 20 24 22 32 23

REFUSED - - 1 1 1 1 1 - -

17. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough

about him?

COLLEGE DEG


Favorable 37% 66% 15% 36% 42% 32% 43% 34%

Unfavorable 28 8 51 23 28 28 33 25

Hvn't hrd enough 34 25 33 41 29 39 22 40

REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 2 1 1

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Favorable 27% 34% 38% 48% 46% 38% 42% 21% 22%

Unfavorable 22 33 32 23 27 26 26 33 42

Hvn't hrd enough 50 33 28 27 27 34 30 46 36

REFUSED 1 - 2 2 1 2 2 - -

18. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about

him?

COLLEGE DEG


Favorable 33% 65% 8% 30% 38% 28% 31% 34%

Unfavorable 33 9 60 30 32 35 47 27

Hvn't hrd enough 32 26 31 40 30 35 22 38

REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 1

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Favorable 25% 31% 33% 43% 42% 33% 38% 15% 25%

Unfavorable 24 38 40 28 31 34 33 38 33

Hvn't hrd enough 51 30 25 26 26 31 28 47 41

REFUSED - - 1 2 - 2 1 - 1

12

19. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard

enough about him?

COLLEGE DEG


Favorable 32% 53% 19% 27% 33% 31% 38% 29%

Unfavorable 54 34 67 60 56 53 51 56

Hvn't hrd enough 12 11 13 12 10 14 9 13

REFUSED 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1

AGE IN YRS..............

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Favorable 24% 32% 32% 35%

Unfavorable 55 54 59 51

Hvn't hrd enough 21 11 8 10

REFUSED - 3 1 3

20. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you

heard enough about him?

COLLEGE DEG


Favorable 28% 43% 15% 28% 30% 26% 36% 24%

Unfavorable 48 31 58 50 47 48 48 47

Hvn't hrd enough 24 25 25 21 23 25 15 28

REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1

AGE IN YRS..............

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Favorable 23% 21% 30% 36%



REFUSED - - 2 2

21. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you

heard enough about her?

COLLEGE DEG


Favorable 28% 49% 11% 25% 31% 25% 31% 27%

Unfavorable 29 17 48 24 27 32 37 26

Hvn't hrd enough 42 33 41 50 42 43 31 48

REFUSED - - - 1 - 1 1 -

AGE IN YRS..............

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Favorable 21% 20% 33% 37%



REFUSED 1 - - 1

13

22. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you


COLLEGE DEG


Favorable 29% 56% 5% 29% 36% 23% 28% 29%

Unfavorable 41 18 60 46 37 44 52 36

Hvn't hrd enough 30 27 34 26 26 33 20 34

REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 1

AGE IN YRS..............

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Favorable 19% 32% 25% 40%



REFUSED - - 1 1

23. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you


COLLEGE DEG


Favorable 19% 27% 16% 17% 23% 14% 21% 18%

Unfavorable 23 20 26 20 25 21 26 21

Hvn't hrd enough 57 52 57 62 52 63 52 61

REFUSED 1 1 1 - - 1 1 1

AGE IN YRS..............

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Favorable 5% 18% 24% 27%



REFUSED - - 1 2

24. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you


COLLEGE DEG


Favorable 23% 32% 10% 26% 29% 17% 27% 20%

Unfavorable 40 36 50 36 42 39 49 36

Hvn't hrd enough 36 31 39 37 28 43 23 42

REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1

AGE IN YRS..............

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Favorable 24% 25% 23% 19%



REFUSED - - 1 1

14

33. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 36% 7% 73% 26% 30% 41% 37% 35%

No 60 91 23 68 67 54 60 61

DK/NA 4 1 3 6 3 5 3 4

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 38% 29% 40% 37% 24% 32% 28% 65% 60%

No 57 66 58 60 74 63 69 31 35

DK/NA 6 5 2 3 2 6 4 4 5

34. Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 35% 58% 12% 36% 40% 30% 29% 38%

No 59 36 84 57 54 63 67 55

DK/NA 6 6 4 7 5 6 4 7

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 28% 33% 37% 41% 44% 38% 41% 10% 22%

No 67 62 58 51 51 55 53 84 73

DK/NA 5 6 5 8 5 7 6 6 5

35. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders is honest and trustworthy or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 59% 39% 78% 64% 62% 57% 68% 55%

No 28 45 11 25 27 28 22 31

DK/NA 13 17 11 11 11 15 11 14

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 70% 58% 60% 48% 60% 54% 57% 69% 67%

No 18 28 29 34 29 29 29 18 20

DK/NA 12 14 10 18 11 16 14 13 13

15

36. Would you say that - Ben Carson is honest and trustworthy or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 53% 79% 31% 54% 59% 48% 52% 54%

No 34 13 55 33 32 36 41 31

DK/NA 12 8 14 13 9 16 7 15

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 45% 49% 56% 63% 64% 52% 58% 39% 43%

No 37 40 35 24 29 33 31 49 37

DK/NA 17 11 9 13 7 15 11 13 19

37. Would you say that - Marco Rubio is honest and trustworthy or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 49% 74% 32% 46% 54% 44% 54% 47%

No 33 12 47 37 35 31 32 34

DK/NA 18 14 20 17 11 24 14 19

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 42% 43% 51% 59% 59% 50% 55% 31% 38%

No 33 37 36 26 31 25 28 48 45

DK/NA 25 20 13 15 10 25 17 21 17

38. Would you say that - Ted Cruz is honest and trustworthy or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 43% 74% 18% 42% 51% 36% 42% 44%

No 39 13 63 40 37 42 46 37

DK/NA 17 13 18 18 12 22 13 19

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 35% 42% 43% 52% 56% 41% 49% 26% 28%

No 40 44 45 30 34 35 35 57 54

DK/NA 26 14 12 18 10 23 17 16 18

16

39. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 60% 26% 91% 62% 53% 67% 65% 57%

No 38 73 8 35 45 32 34 41

DK/NA 2 1 1 3 2 2 2 2

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 68% 59% 62% 52% 47% 58% 52% 87% 77%

No 27 40 37 47 52 39 46 12 22

DK/NA 5 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2

40. Would you say that - Donald Trump has strong leadership qualities or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 58% 80% 35% 61% 63% 54% 56% 60%

No 39 18 63 36 34 44 43 37

DK/NA 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 3

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 60% 62% 58% 52% 67% 60% 64% 38% 38%

No 38 36 40 43 31 37 34 60 60

DK/NA 1 2 2 5 2 3 2 3 2

41. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders has strong leadership qualities or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 46% 22% 68% 47% 44% 48% 49% 44%

No 41 60 21 40 46 36 40 41

DK/NA 13 17 11 13 10 17 11 15

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 61% 43% 43% 35% 39% 44% 41% 59% 62%

No 25 41 47 48 50 39 45 26 26

DK/NA 14 16 9 16 10 17 14 15 13

17

42. Would you say that - Ben Carson has strong leadership qualities or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 40% 60% 20% 40% 43% 36% 33% 43%

No 49 29 68 48 50 48 58 45

DK/NA 12 11 11 11 7 16 9 13

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 37% 38% 40% 44% 46% 38% 42% 34% 26%

No 48 51 52 44 49 46 48 57 52

DK/NA 15 11 8 12 6 16 11 9 22

43. Would you say that - Marco Rubio has strong leadership qualities or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 47% 70% 32% 43% 48% 45% 54% 43%

No 36 17 49 40 40 33 34 38

DK/NA 17 13 20 17 12 23 13 19

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 40% 44% 46% 54% 52% 49% 51% 28% 43%

No 36 37 41 32 39 27 33 54 38

DK/NA 24 19 13 14 9 24 16 18 19

44. Would you say that - Ted Cruz has strong leadership qualities or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 43% 69% 20% 42% 47% 38% 44% 42%

No 43 17 66 43 43 43 45 42

DK/NA 15 14 15 15 11 19 11 17

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 40% 40% 41% 50% 51% 43% 47% 25% 31%

No 37 47 48 38 40 39 39 58 53

DK/NA 23 14 11 12 9 18 14 17 17

18

45. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton cares about the needs and problems of people like

you or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 46% 14% 84% 40% 37% 55% 50% 44%

No 51 84 15 56 60 42 47 53

DK/NA 3 2 1 4 2 3 2 3

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 50% 42% 52% 42% 31% 46% 38% 80% 65%

No 47 54 47 54 67 51 59 17 31

DK/NA 3 3 1 4 2 3 2 3 4

46. Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like

you or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 36% 66% 11% 33% 43% 30% 30% 39%

No 59 30 88 60 54 65 66 56

DK/NA 4 4 1 7 3 5 4 4

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 25% 33% 40% 43% 46% 38% 42% 9% 14%

No 71 63 57 52 51 56 53 88 83

DK/NA 4 4 3 5 3 6 5 2 3

47. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders cares about the needs and problems of people like

you or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 53% 26% 75% 59% 55% 51% 61% 49%

No 35 59 15 30 37 32 31 37

DK/NA 12 15 10 11 7 16 8 14

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 68% 49% 57% 37% 52% 48% 50% 66% 61%

No 21 37 35 46 41 34 38 21 26

DK/NA 11 14 8 17 6 17 12 13 13

19

48. Would you say that - Ben Carson cares about the needs and problems of people like you

or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 50% 75% 25% 53% 56% 44% 47% 51%

No 38 15 64 34 36 39 45 34

DK/NA 13 10 11 13 8 17 9 14

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 45% 46% 52% 56% 61% 48% 55% 33% 35%

No 34 43 40 32 33 35 34 55 49

DK/NA 20 11 8 12 6 17 11 12 16

49. Would you say that - Marco Rubio cares about the needs and problems of people like you

or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 46% 76% 25% 43% 52% 41% 51% 44%

No 39 14 59 42 39 38 36 40

DK/NA 15 10 15 15 8 21 12 16

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 41% 42% 47% 54% 56% 48% 52% 26% 28%

No 36 41 43 35 36 32 34 57 57

DK/NA 23 17 10 12 8 20 14 16 15

50. Would you say that - Ted Cruz cares about the needs and problems of people like you or

not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 42% 75% 17% 39% 49% 36% 39% 44%

No 43 15 70 43 43 44 50 40

DK/NA 15 10 13 17 9 20 11 16

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 38% 41% 42% 48% 54% 42% 48% 21% 24%

No 39 47 48 40 39 38 39 63 58

DK/NA 23 13 10 13 7 20 13 15 18

20

51. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has the right kind of experience to be President

or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 67% 34% 96% 70% 62% 71% 73% 64%

No 32 64 4 30 38 27 27 35

DK/NA 1 2 - 1 1 2 1 1

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 77% 71% 67% 52% 55% 65% 60% 93% 86%

No 21 28 32 46 44 33 39 7 14

DK/NA 2 1 1 2 - 2 1 - 1

52. Would you say that - Donald Trump has the right kind of experience to be President or

not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 34% 60% 9% 32% 42% 26% 28% 37%

No 63 37 90 64 56 70 71 60

DK/NA 3 3 1 4 2 4 2 3

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 27% 33% 36% 37% 47% 32% 40% 6% 17%

No 70 65 61 58 52 64 58 91 81

DK/NA 3 2 2 5 1 4 3 3 2

53. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders has the right kind of experience to be President

or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 47% 24% 68% 50% 47% 48% 50% 46%

No 42 64 21 41 46 37 41 42

DK/NA 11 12 11 9 7 15 9 12

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 68% 46% 46% 30% 44% 44% 44% 62% 59%

No 20 40 46 58 49 42 46 22 29

DK/NA 12 13 8 12 7 13 10 16 11

21

54. Would you say that - Ben Carson has the right kind of experience to be President or

not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 28% 42% 14% 30% 32% 24% 21% 31%

No 62 46 76 63 62 62 72 57

DK/NA 10 12 10 7 6 14 6 12

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 31% 23% 26% 34% 34% 25% 30% 23% 21%

No 56 67 66 56 60 61 61 72 62

DK/NA 12 10 8 10 5 14 9 6 17

55. Would you say that - Marco Rubio has the right kind of experience to be President or

not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 43% 67% 22% 46% 48% 39% 48% 41%

No 41 20 60 39 43 39 40 41

DK/NA 16 12 18 16 9 22 11 18

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 40% 43% 40% 49% 52% 44% 48% 29% 27%

No 35 38 51 40 40 37 38 45 54

DK/NA 25 19 9 11 9 19 14 26 19

56. Would you say that - Ted Cruz has the right kind of experience to be President or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 44% 70% 21% 44% 51% 38% 44% 45%

No 41 19 63 40 40 42 47 38

DK/NA 15 11 15 16 9 20 9 17

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 47% 44% 41% 47% 55% 44% 50% 30% 24%

No 32 40 51 40 37 39 38 53 49

DK/NA 21 16 9 13 8 17 13 18 27

22

57. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton shares your values or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 42% 8% 84% 33% 34% 51% 47% 40%

No 55 91 15 60 65 45 50 57

DK/NA 3 1 1 6 2 4 3 3

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 45% 40% 46% 38% 27% 41% 34% 79% 65%

No 53 56 50 60 71 55 63 18 35

DK/NA 3 4 3 2 2 4 3 3 -

58. Would you say that - Donald Trump shares your values or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 35% 65% 8% 32% 42% 28% 27% 39%

No 61 30 90 62 54 67 70 56

DK/NA 4 4 3 5 3 5 3 5

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 25% 34% 39% 40% 46% 35% 41% 13% 15%

No 70 64 56 55 50 59 55 82 83

DK/NA 5 2 5 5 3 6 5 5 2

59. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders shares your values or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 44% 13% 73% 47% 42% 46% 50% 41%

No 44 71 17 45 50 38 40 46

DK/NA 12 15 11 9 8 16 10 13

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 59% 43% 45% 30% 39% 44% 42% 56% 59%

No 32 45 43 54 54 39 47 29 32

DK/NA 9 12 12 16 7 17 12 15 9

23

60. Would you say that - Ben Carson shares your values or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 46% 75% 17% 50% 53% 40% 41% 49%

No 43 14 71 41 41 45 51 39

DK/NA 11 11 12 9 6 15 7 13

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 44% 39% 49% 53% 57% 44% 51% 32% 32%

No 38 53 42 36 37 42 39 55 51

DK/NA 18 8 9 11 6 14 10 12 17

61. Would you say that - Marco Rubio shares your values or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 40% 71% 15% 39% 46% 35% 44% 39%

No 43 15 70 43 43 44 43 43

DK/NA 17 14 15 18 12 21 13 18

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 32% 35% 41% 51% 50% 42% 46% 18% 25%

No 42 48 45 39 39 37 38 65 61

DK/NA 26 17 14 11 11 21 16 17 14

62. Would you say that - Ted Cruz shares your values or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 35% 68% 8% 34% 44% 27% 33% 37%

No 48 15 77 50 45 51 56 44

DK/NA 16 17 15 15 11 22 11 19

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 27% 32% 36% 46% 49% 33% 41% 15% 21%

No 51 53 49 40 41 44 43 72 64

DK/NA 22 15 14 14 10 23 16 13 15

24

63. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton would have a good chance of defeating the

Republican nominee in the general election for President or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 63% 34% 87% 69% 62% 64% 69% 60%

No 32 61 10 27 35 30 26 36

DK/NA 5 5 3 5 4 6 6 4

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 68% 66% 66% 52% 56% 56% 56% 95% 73%

No 30 31 29 39 40 37 38 4 22

DK/NA 2 3 5 9 4 7 5 1 5

64. Would you say that - Donald Trump would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic

nominee in the general election for President or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 46% 73% 20% 47% 50% 43% 36% 51%

No 49 22 77 48 47 50 59 44

DK/NA 5 5 3 5 3 7 5 5

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 45% 45% 46% 47% 55% 50% 53% 21% 18%

No 52 50 48 46 41 42 42 77 74

DK/NA 2 5 5 7 3 8 6 1 8

65. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders would have a good chance of defeating the

Republican nominee in the general election for President or not?

COLLEGE DEG


Yes 34% 17% 49% 39% 34% 34% 31% 35%

No 55 75 39 51 59 52 59 54

DK/NA 10 8 12 10 7 14 10 11

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 54% 33% 29% 23% 30% 30% 30% 48% 53%

No 39 57 61 64 64 56 60 41 32

DK/NA 7 10 10 13 6 15 10 11 15

25

66. Would you say that - Ben Carson would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic


COLLEGE DEG


Yes 31% 55% 11% 30% 35% 28% 31% 32%

No 58 34 79 60 57 59 61 57

DK/NA 11 11 9 10 8 13 9 12

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 28% 27% 35% 35% 39% 31% 35% 16% 20%

No 59 63 58 53 55 56 55 80 55

DK/NA 13 10 8 12 6 13 10 4 25

67. Would you say that - Marco Rubio would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic


COLLEGE DEG


Yes 39% 63% 23% 37% 43% 35% 44% 37%

No 47 25 65 47 47 47 43 49

DK/NA 14 12 11 16 10 18 13 14

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 30% 40% 39% 48% 48% 42% 45% 19% 20%

No 50 46 49 43 43 40 42 72 55

DK/NA 20 14 12 9 9 17 13 9 25

68. Would you say that - Ted Cruz would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic


COLLEGE DEG


Yes 31% 59% 10% 28% 34% 29% 27% 33%

No 55 28 78 55 56 54 61 51

DK/NA 14 12 11 16 11 18 11 15

AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....


Yes 21% 33% 31% 41% 38% 34% 36% 11% 19%

No 57 54 60 47 53 49 51 80 56

DK/NA 22 13 9 12 9 17 13 9 25

26

69. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) Thinking about the Democratic nominee for president

in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares your values,

cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership qualities, is

honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best chance of

winning?



LIBERAL..... Mod/


Shares values 15% 16% 13% 15% 15% 15%

Cares needs/problems 27 33 36 22 27 27

Strong leadership 19 10 11 25 13 23

Honest/trustworthy 17 14 19 17 22 14

Right experience 13 14 12 14 14 12

Best chance/winning 6 13 7 4 7 5

DK/NA 3 - 1 2 2 3

70. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) Thinking about the Republican nominee for

president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares

your values, cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership

qualities, is honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best

chance of winning?





Shares values 22% 28% 28% 28% 22% 15% 27% 15%

Cares needs/problems 11 6 9 7 9 17 9 13

Strong leadership 26 28 23 24 31 24 23 31

Honest/trustworthy 23 24 27 23 23 23 24 22

Right experience 6 1 3 2 5 10 4 8

Best chance/winning 8 5 7 10 8 6 7 9

DK/NA 4 8 2 6 2 6 5 3

71. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) Which of these is the most important issue to you

in deciding who to support for the Democratic nomination for President: the economy and

jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate

change, race relations, abortion, gun policy or taxes?



LIBERAL..... Mod/


Economy and jobs 43% 40% 44% 45% 48% 40%

Terrorism 8 3 5 11 5 10

Immigration 4 4 3 4 3 4

Federal deficit 3 - - 4 3 2

Health care 11 8 7 13 10 12

Foreign policy 12 14 11 11 13 10

Climate change 8 20 12 3 9 7

Race relations 2 3 2 2 2 2

Abortion 2 2 4 - - 3

Gun policy 3 3 4 2 1 3

Taxes 2 2 1 3 1 3

DK/NA 3 - 7 2 4 3

27

72. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) Which of these is the most important issue to you

in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination for President: the economy and

jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate

change, race relations, abortion, gun policy or taxes?





Economy and jobs 26% 21% 24% 23% 26% 28% 30% 20%

Terrorism 24 27 24 22 27 23 19 31

Immigration 8 14 7 10 8 5 8 7

Federal deficit 8 6 11 10 8 6 7 9

Health care 3 2 2 1 3 5 2 5

Foreign policy 17 16 14 15 19 18 17 18

Climate change - - - - - - - -

Race relations - 1 - - - 1 - -

Abortion 3 4 6 6 4 - 3 4

Gun policy 4 4 5 6 1 6 6 2

Taxes 3 2 3 3 2 3 4 1

DK/NA 3 3 3 3 2 5 3 4

bump for trump as carson fades in … for trump as carson fades in republican race, quinnipiac...

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