building the third golden age of aerospace · 2017. 6. 9. · building the third golden age of...
TRANSCRIPT
Building the Third Golden Age of AerospaceAirbus Media Day
Paul Eremenko, CTO09 June 2017
Technology curve framework
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Bits: Integrated circuits
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Transistors ($/transistor)
Bits: Memory storage
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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Volatile memory ($/bit)
Nonvolatile memory ($/kbit)
Transistors ($/transistor)
Bits: Camera CCDs
5
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10-2
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1980Year
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Volatile memory ($/bit)
Nonvolatile memory ($/kbit)
Camera CCDs ($/pixel)
Transistors ($/transistor)
Bits: Wireless communications
6
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1980Year
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Wireless comms ($/bps)
Volatile memory ($/bit)
Nonvolatile memory ($/kbit)
Camera CCDs ($/pixel)
Transistors ($/transistor)
Voilá: The smartphone
Wireless comms ($/bps)
Volatile memory ($/bit)
Nonvolatile memory ($/kbit)
Bits
7
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10-7
10-8
10-9
1980Year
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Camera CCDs ($/pixel)
Transistors ($/transistor)
Electrons: Batteries
8
Batteries ($/mW-hr)
$ pe
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Bits
Electrons: Photovoltaics
9
Batteries ($/mW-hr)
Photovoltaics ($/mW)
$ pe
r uni
t
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1980Year
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bits
Voilà: Cubesats & quadcopter drones
10
Electrons
Batteries ($/mW-hr)
Photovoltaics ($/mW)
$ pe
r uni
t
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10-1
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1980Year
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bits
Lowering the barrier to entry
11
€1.9B€0.9B
€5.0BVC activity2010-2015
ElectronsBits
$ pe
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t
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Num
ber of Aerospace Start Ups
200
100
300
400
Year
What the new entrants are working on
12
Wright Electric
Zunum
Boom
E-Hang
Amazon
SpaceX
Bigelow
PlanetLabs
Num
ber of Aerospace Start Ups
200
100
300
400
13
€1.9B€0.9B
€5.0BVC activity2010-2015
Atoms: Manufacturing robotics$
per u
nit
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1980Year
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ElectronsBits
Manufacturing robotics ($k/hr)
Num
ber of Aerospace Start Ups
200
100
300
400
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€1.9B€0.9B
€5.0BVC activity2010-2015
Atoms: Additive manufacturing$
per u
nit
100
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1980Year
ElectronsBits
Metal ALM ($/mm^3)
Manufacturing robotics ($k/hr)
20201985 1990 1995 2000 201520102005
Num
ber of Aerospace Start Ups
200
100
300
400
15
€1.9B€0.9B
€5.0BVC activity2010-2015
Atoms: Synthetic biology$
per u
nit
100
10-1
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1980Year
ElectronsBits
Gene synthesis ($k/gene) Metal ALM ($/mm^3)
Manufacturing robotics ($k/hr)
20201985 1990 1995 2000 201520102005
Num
ber of Aerospace Start Ups
200
100
300
400
16
€1.9B€0.9B
€5.0BVC activity2010-2015
Direct manipulation of atoms$
per u
nit
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1980Year
ElectronsBits Atoms
20201985 1990 1995 2000 201520102005
Gene synthesis ($k/gene) Metal ALM ($/mm^3)
Manufacturing robotics ($k/hr)
Num
ber of Aerospace Start Ups
200
100
300
400
17
€1.9B€0.9B
€5.0BVC activity2010-2015
$ pe
r uni
t
100
10-1
10-2
10-3
10-4
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10-7
10-8
10-9
1980Year
ElectronsBits Atoms
20201985 1990 1995 2000 201520102005
Airplanes ($/pax-km)
Compared to aviation
Are we moving fast enough?
Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
19
Strategy
Plan
20
TechRoadmaps
Strategy
Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
2. Where could we go?System Architecture
Exploration (CDF)
3. Where should we go?Scenario Analysis and Technology Valuation
4. Where we are going!R&T Portfolio Optimization
& Demonstrator Plans
Technology Roadmaps
Demonstrator Plans
R&T Portfolio
Technology roadmapping methodology
Steps Outputs
Airbus
Today
+5y
+10y
FOMi
FOM
j
Competitor
+5y
+10y
FOMi
FOM
j
Path A
Path B?
σ[NPV] - Risk
E[N
PV] -
Ret
urn
M€
CADHR&T
Projects
1. Where are we today? Technology Roadmapping
and Assessment
N1 N2
P1 P2 ... Pn
C1 C2 ... Cn
T1 T2 T3 ... Tn
Architecture Actual roadmap graph
21
Drive
Plan
22
R & T Projects
Demonstrators
TechRoadmaps
Strategy
Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
Disrupt
Drive
Plan
23
R & T Projects
Demonstrators
A3 Silicon Valley
Shenzhen Innovation Ctr
TechRoadmaps
Strategy
Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
Opportunistic
Disrupt
Drive
Plan
24
R & T Projects
Demonstrators
A3 Silicon Valley
Shenzhen Innovation Ctr
BizLabs
Airbus Ventures
TechRoadmaps
Strategy
Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
Opportunistic
Disrupt
Drive
Plan
25
R & T Projects
Demonstrators
A3 Silicon Valley
Shenzhen Innovation Ctr
BizLabs
Airbus Ventures
TechRoadmaps
StrategyTechRoad-maps
R&T Transactions
Global Tech Scouting
Experts Community
Knowledge Management
Government R&T
Intellectual Property
INFRASTRUCTURE
Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
Filton, UK
Hamburg, Germany
Munich, Germany
Toulouse, France
Core R&T Sites
26
Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
27
Toulouse, France Munich, Germany
Shenzhen, China
Core R&T SitesInnovation Centres
Silicon Valley, USA
Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
Filton, UK
Hamburg, Germany
28
Filton, UK
Toulouse, France Munich, Germany
Hamburg, Germany
Shenzhen, China
Bangalore, India
Tel Aviv, Israel
Moscow, Russia
Seoul, S. Korea
Tokyo, Japan
Beijing, China
Core R&T SitesInnovation CentresScouting
Silicon Valley, USA
Airbus research, technology, and innovation ecosystem
Some examples...
Electric flight
DA36
E-
Star
e-G
eniu
s
Cri-C
ri
E-Fa
n 1.
2
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n 1.
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Airb
us
Vaha
na
Siem
ens
Extr
a 33
0LE
N
ew S
ingl
e Ai
sle
Airc
raft
Electric flight: Cri-Cri 20MW
Power
E-Fa
n X
DA36
E-
Star
2
2MW
200kW
20kW
EAS House2016
Firstflight 20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
Electric flight: e-Genius
DA36
E-
Star
e-G
eniu
s
E-Fa
n 1.
2
E-Fa
n 1.
1
E-Fa
n 1.
0
City
Airb
us
Vaha
na
Siem
ens
Extr
a 33
0LE
20MW
Power
E-Fa
n X
DA36
E-
Star
2
2MW
200kW
20kW
EAS House2016
N
ew S
ingl
e Ai
sle
Airc
raft
Firstflight
Cri-C
ri
20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
Hybrid-electric flight: E-Star
DA36
E-
Star
E-Fa
n 1.
2
E-Fa
n 1.
1
E-Fa
n 1.
0
City
Airb
us
Vaha
na
Siem
ens
Extr
a 33
0LE
20MW
Power
E-Fa
n X
DA36
E-
Star
2
2MW
200kW
20kW
EAS House2016
N
ew S
ingl
e Ai
sle
Airc
raft
e-G
eniu
s
Firstflight
Cri-C
ri
20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
Hybrid-electric flight: E-Star 2
DA36
E-
Star
E-Fa
n 1.
2
E-Fa
n 1.
1
E-Fa
n 1.
0
City
Airb
us
Vaha
na
Siem
ens
Extr
a 33
0LE
20MW
Power
E-Fa
n X
DA36
E-
Star
2
2MW
200kW
20kW
EAS House2016
N
ew S
ingl
e Ai
sle
Airc
raft
e-G
eniu
s
Firstflight
Cri-C
ri
20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
Electric flight: E-Fan 1.0
DA36
E-
Star
E-Fa
n 1.
2
E-Fa
n 1.
1
E-Fa
n 1.
0
City
Airb
us
Vaha
na
Siem
ens
Extr
a 33
0LE
20MW
Power
E-Fa
n X
DA36
E-
Star
2
2MW
200kW
20kW
EAS House2016
N
ew S
ingl
e Ai
sle
Airc
raft
e-G
eniu
s
Firstflight
Cri-C
ri
20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
Electric flight: E-Fan 1.1
DA36
E-
Star
E-Fa
n 1.
2
E-Fa
n 1.
1
E-Fa
n 1.
0
City
Airb
us
Vaha
na
Siem
ens
Extr
a 33
0LE
20MW
Power
E-Fa
n X
DA36
E-
Star
2
2MW
200kW
20kW
EAS House2016
N
ew S
ingl
e Ai
sle
Airc
raft
e-G
eniu
s
Firstflight
Cri-C
ri
20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
Hybrid-electric flight: E-Fan 1.2
DA36
E-
Star
E-Fa
n 1.
2
E-Fa
n 1.
1
E-Fa
n 1.
0
City
Airb
us
Vaha
na
Siem
ens
Extr
a 33
0LE
20MW
Power
E-Fa
n X
DA36
E-
Star
2
2MW
200kW
20kW
EAS House2016
N
ew S
ingl
e Ai
sle
Airc
raft
e-G
eniu
s
Firstflight
Cri-C
ri
20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
Electric flight: Siemens Extra 330LE
DA36
E-
Star
E-Fa
n 1.
2
E-Fa
n 1.
1
E-Fa
n 1.
0
City
Airb
us
Vaha
na
Siem
ens
Extr
a 33
0LE
20MW
Power
E-Fa
n X
DA36
E-
Star
2
2MW
200kW
20kW
EAS House2016
N
ew S
ingl
e Ai
sle
Airc
raft
e-G
eniu
s
Firstflight
Cri-C
ri
20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
Electric testbed: E-Aircraft Systems House
DA36
E-
Star
E-Fa
n 1.
2
E-Fa
n 1.
1
E-Fa
n 1.
0
City
Airb
us
Vaha
na
Siem
ens
Extr
a 33
0LE
20MW
Power
EAS House2016
E-Fa
n X
DA36
E-
Star
2
2MW
200kW
20kW
N
ew S
ingl
e Ai
sle
Airc
raft
e-G
eniu
s
Firstflight
Cri-C
ri
20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
Electric flight: Vahana
20XX
DA36
E-
Star
E-Fa
n 1.
2
E-Fa
n 1.
1
E-Fa
n 1.
0
City
Airb
us
Vaha
na
Siem
ens
Extr
a 33
0LE
2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 2020
20MW
Power
E-Fa
n X
DA36
E-
Star
2
2MW
200kW
20kW
EAS House2016
N
ew S
ingl
e Ai
sle
Airc
raft
e-G
eniu
s
Firstflight
Cri-C
ri
2011 2013
Electric flight: CityAirbus
DA36
E-
Star
E-Fa
n 1.
2
E-Fa
n 1.
1
E-Fa
n 1.
0
City
Airb
us
Vaha
na
Siem
ens
Extr
a 33
0LE
20MW
Power
E-Fa
n X
DA36
E-
Star
2
2MW
200kW
20kW
EAS House2016
N
ew S
ingl
e Ai
sle
Airc
raft
e-G
eniu
s
Firstflight
Cri-C
ri
20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
Hybrid-electric flight: E-Fan X
DA36
E-
Star
E-Fa
n 1.
2
E-Fa
n 1.
1
E-Fa
n 1.
0
City
Airb
us
Vaha
na
Siem
ens
Extr
a 33
0LE
20MW
Power
E-Fa
n X
N
ew S
ingl
e Ai
sle
Airc
raft
DA36
E-
Star
2
2MW
200kW
20kW
EAS House2016
e-G
eniu
s
Firstflight
Cri-C
ri
20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
Hybrid-electric flight: New Single Aisle
DA36
E-
Star
Cri-C
ri
E-Fa
n 1.
2
E-Fa
n 1.
1
E-Fa
n 1.
0
City
Airb
us
Vaha
na
Siem
ens
Extr
a 33
0LE
20MW
Power
E-Fa
n X
N
ew S
ingl
e Ai
sle
Airc
raft
DA36
E-
Star
2
2MW
200kW
20kW
EAS House2016
e-G
eniu
s
Firstflight 20XX2010 2011 2015 20162014 2016 2017 2018 20202011 2013
Urban air mobility
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@PaulEremenko