building strong ® from severe drought to flood of the century
TRANSCRIPT
BUILDING STRONG®
From Severe Drought to Flood of the Century
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What do you know about USACE
How many employees/offices in USACE?
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U.S. Army Corps of Engineers(USACE)
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers(USACE)
40 District/division offices for civil works 7 laboratories 37,000 employees $5.4 billion annual civil works budget
► Partners with sponsors► Manages USACE assets
Military Design/Construction Design/construction for other agencies Contract administration (billions)
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USACE Civil Works MissionUSACE Civil Works Mission Water resources
► Flood control – approx. 700 structures (flood control, navigation and other)• Over $25 billion in flood Damages prevented each year
► Levee systems – 14,000 miles► Smaller flood damage reduction projects► Navigation – approx. 191 locks/dams
• 12,000-shallow, 13,000-deep miles of waterway• 300 commercial harbors
► Water supply – 10 million people in 115 cites plus agriculture, industrial► Hydro power – 75 sites w/ 25% of hydroelectric or 3% of energy
Recreation► Nation’s largest outdoor recreation supplier► 2,500 COE operated plus 1,800 leased areas► 360 million visits, 600,000 jobs directly related
Environmental ► Restoration► Clean Water Act► Environmental flows relating to reservoirs
Emergency/disaster response (hurricanes, tornados, etc)
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Statewide Reservoir Development Summary
Multi-purpose► Flood control, water supply, hydropower,
environmental, recreation, navigation Critical to the early development of Texas Significant federal economic contribution Planned/constructed dams 111/32
► 1st - Marshall Ford Dam (Lake Travis) 1942► Last – Cooper (Jim Chapman Reservoir)
1991 8.8 M ac-ft conservation storage
(WS/hydropower) in 29 federal dams 15.9 M ac-ft flood storage in 31 federal
dams Costs (2013)
► Construction - $8.2 billion► Benefits - $76 billion► B/C ratio – 9.3
Annual recreation visits – 22 M
San Jacinto
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What Do You See?
• Flood control system• Over $70 billion in
damages prevented (60 years)
• $2-3 billion per year
• Water supply system• 6.5 million served
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Flood Control Operations
What was the largest historical dam failure catastrophe?
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Maintaining Perspective On Water Management
Historical Disasters► S. Fork Dam, Johnstown, Pennsylvania (Operational Issues)
• May 1889, 2209 dead, $17 mil damages► St Francis Dam, California (Operational & Design)
• March 1928, 450 dead, several towns destroyed► Buffalo Gap, Virginia Tailings Dams (Operational & Des.)
• Feb 72, 125 dead (COE Involvement)► Teton Dam, Idaho (Design Issues)
• June 1976, 11 dead, $.5 billion damages► Banqiao & Shimantan Dams (Ru & Hong Rivers, China)(Design
Issues)• August 75, 85,000 dead, 11 million affected
Top ofInactive Pool
RESERVOIR ALLOCATIONS
Top of Dam
Maximum Design Surface
Top of Flood Control
Top of Conservation
SpillwayCrest
Sedimentation Pool
Freeboard
Surcharge
Streambed
Water Supply, • Municipal
• Agricultural
• Industrial
• Hydropower
Fish & Wildlife, Recreation Spillway Crest
Low Flow
Perched Reserve Power Pool
8.8 million ac-ft5.8 ac-ft water supply20-25% surface water supply
SWF – 15.9 million ac-ft$2-3 billion/yr damages prevented, $76 billion total
SWF - 214 GWH/yr @ 5 locations
Hydrologic Network Cooperative program – federal, state, local,
academia, AE community Over 400 Remote Sensing Stations,
approximately 2000 Observers Basic data for operation of the projects Calibration of NWS precipitation estimates Model calibrations, real-time forecasting
and hydrologic investigations Jointly funded with USACE direct
expenditures of close to $18 million annually, SWF $1 million annually
Partnerships► USGS, NWS, River Authorities, Counties,
Cities► Coordination and resource sharing to
maximize network benefits► USACE-SWF has leveraged partnerships
for $700k $800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
$2,000,000
Actual Cost
Leveraged Cost$700k
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Plans of Regulation Follow published plans of regulation for
each project Store flood producing runoff to protect
downstream areas Uncontrolled areas Project Safety – can we store it? Surcharge
releases? Forecasts - reservoir managers, surcharge
releases Evacuate flood water to prepare for
subsequent flooding events Coordinate with other dam operators Retain full conservation pools and
additional supplies on a temporary basis to support drought (deviation)
Controls
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Current flow/stage = > 8000 cfs/24.7’
Control capacity = 8000 cfs/24.7’
No releases from USACE flood control projects unless
in surcharge operations
Control Points – Downstream States
Control points & control point flows
► Select locations along a river, which are considered representative, for the purpose of evaluating the impact of a flood along that portion of the river. These locations are designated in the plan of regulation as regulatory discharge points
► A rate of flow at which damages begin to occur is established for each control point
► As the pool level and overall risk to the reservoir increases within a reservoir, the acceptable control point flow may increase
► These flow rates are known as the allowable control point flows or regulatory discharges
Current flow/stage = 8000 cfs/24.7’Control capacity = 8000 cfs/24.7’
Reservoir A = 1700 cfs
Reservoir B = 4300 cfs
Reservoir C = 500 cfs
Flow from uncontrolled area = 1500 cfs
After Event – Flood Water Evacuation
During Event
Surcharge Operations
Most likely from ensemble events Dams have limited capability to
store runoff, 100-yr, SPF, PMF, ensemble
Once full spillway activation likely
Control point flows no longer applicable
Dam safety Spillways
► Uncontrolled• Rare• Damages
► Tainter gates• Requires SWF internal decision
Proctor Lake
Lavon Lake
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May – June 2015 Event
20” – 30” rainfall across entire upper Trinity River USACE projects flood pool capacity exhausted Surcharge pools engaged at all 8 Trinity River reservoirs Damage inducing surcharge releases at Lewisville, Grapevine
and Lavon Numerous forecasts for USACE reservoirs across the state Inundation mapping across the state
► Denton Creek Brazos► Elm Fork Trinity► East Fork Neches► Guadalupe
Benbrook Joe Pool Ray Roberts Lewisville Grapevine Lavon Navarro Mills Bardwell Projects Avg0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Trinity River Basin Projects: CY2014Reservoir Inflow & Basin Average Precip
CY2014 Monthly Avg PDSI = -1.78 (Max = -1.13 Min = -2.56)Resv Inflow Basin Avg Precip 1 Jan 2014 Cons. Storage 31 Dec 2014 Cons. Storage
Per
cen
t of
Nor
mal
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Monthly Rainfall
January February March April May June0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
3.8
2.7
3.6
7.5
18.9
5.7
0.40.7
1.82.7
3.3
4.4
2.132.66
3.493.07
4.9
3.79
2015
2014
Average
Total rainfall on the Upper Trinity Basin for May and June was 24.6”
During Tropical Storm Bill the GrapevineBasin received an average of 5.4 inches in 48 hours
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May 1- 5
GrapevineI=0.70 in
Ray RobertsI=0.88 in
LewisvilleI=0.65 in
LavonI=0.44 in
BenbrookI=0.41 in Joe Pool
I=0.35 in
*Pool percent taken on the last day
93 C
83 C
10 F
15 F 7 F
98 C
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Storm Event May 6-12
GrapevineI=6.74 inC=7.44
Ray RobertsI= 9.45 in
C= 10.33 in
LewisvilleI= 7.04 inC= 7.69 in
LavonI=5.57 inC=6.01 in
BenbrookI=4.61 inC=5.02 Joe Pool
I=3.72 inC=4.07
*Pool percent taken on the last day
2 F
18 F
59 F 37
F
86 F
25 F
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Storm Event May 13-19
GrapevineI=3.74 in
C=11.18 in
Ray RobertsI=4.36 in
C=14.69 in
LewisvilleI=3.57 in
C=11.26 in
LavonI=3.61 inC=9.62 in
BenbrookI=2.01 inC=7.03 in
Joe PoolI =4.24 inC =8.31 in
*Pool percent taken on the last day
11 F 51
F
74 F 57
F
93 F
44 F
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Storm Event May 20-25
GrapevineI=3.37 in
C=14.55 in
Ray RobertsI=4.74 in
C=19.43 in
LewisvilleI=4.15 inC=15.41
in
LavonI=5.04 in
C=14.66 in
BenbrookI=3.44 in
C=10.47 inJoe PoolI=5.25 in
C=13.56 in
*Pool percent taken on the last day
18 F 79
F
100 82
F
100
71 F
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Storm Event May 26-31
GrapevineI=4.33 in
C=18.88 in
Ray RobertsI=4.84 in
C=24.27 in
LewisvilleI=4.38 inC=19.79
in
LavonI=3.12 in
C=17.78 in
BenbrookI=3.79 in
C=14.26 inJoe PoolI=6.52 in
C=20.08 in
*Pool percent taken on the last day
40 F
100
100
100
100
100
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Variations is Loss Rates for Forecast ModelingUpper Trinity River – Dallas, Fort Worth Area
70% variation in loss rates
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Tropical Storm Bill June 13-23
GrapevineI=6.46 in
C=25.76 in
Ray RobertsI=4.78 in
C=29.45 in
LewisvilleI=4.70 inC=24.86
in
LavonI=5.07 in
C=22.93 in
BenbrookI=5.16 in
C=19.43 inJoe PoolI=3.03 in
C=23.11 in
*Pool percent taken on the last day
100
91 F
100
98 F
100
100
2.3 Million (ac-ft) stored in the 6
projects
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Anticipating BillWhitney210001453
Aquilla
6110Waco
4230206
• Whitney, Waco Lake and Aquilla were significantly
in the flood pool.
• The Corps of Engineers had a 24 hour watch on
the reservoirs in the path of Tropical Storm Bill.
• At 11 pm on June 16th the Corps of Engineers
reduced releases at 6 reservoirs in anticipation
of the storm.
Belton1641
27Georgetow
n258
0
Granger
28200
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Trinity River Reservoir System
• Flood control system• Over $70 billion in
damages prevented (60 years)
• $2-3 billion per year
• Water supply system• 6.5 million served
Where is the 7th flood control reservoir?
Corridor Development CertificateFloodplain as a Reservoir
RIVER CHANNEL
WATER SURFACE
Full floodplain conveyance and storage
19901949 1989
Corridor Development CertificateFloodplain as a Reservoir
Downstream flood risk increases► Higher flows► Higher water surface elevations
RIVER CHANNEL
WATER SURFACE
Full floodplain conveyance and storage
Reduced floodplain conveyance and storage
RIVER CHANNEL
BUILDABLE AREA BUILDABLE AREA
CDC Corridor
Ray Roberts
Lewisville
Grapevine
Lavon
Joe Pool
Benbrook
Active Flood Storage
Bad things happen when you do this!
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Benefits of the CDC Process
• Establishment of the CDC Process provides a number of benefits and innovations, including the stabilization of flood risk. • Common regional criteria • State-of-the-art floodplain mapping• Hydrologic modeling based on year 2055 Upper Trinity River watershed development• A current hydraulic model incorporating CDC permitted floodplain development• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers technical review• Regional review and comment
TREIS 1987 ROD 1988 CDC 1991
Chronology of the Regulatory Program
Corridor Development CertificateFloodplain as a Reservoir
RIVER CHANNEL
WATER SURFACE
Full floodplain conveyance and storage
RIVER CHANNEL
BUILD AREA
BUILD AREA
STORAGE AREA STORAGE AREA
Recovered conveyance and compensatory storage
Reduces, but does not eliminate, impacts on downstream flood potential (compromise)
Leveraging to expand SW management practices
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NOAA Atlas 14Precipitation Frequency Estimates
NOAA - Office of Hydrologic Development – Sanja Perica PhD
UCAR► Technical Paper 40 & 49 (1961 & 1964)► USGS/TXDOT (Asquith)► 10 volumes completed► Improved techniques► Additional durations (urban studies, 5-min)► Additional frequencies (1000-yr)► Aerial reduction factors► Increased granularity
• Denser network• Improved spatial interpolation• PRISM techniques
► Longer records► Connectivity to USACE software (MetVue)► Cost – $1.5 mil, $500k/yr for 3 years► $170k in hand, $790k pledged
.
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CWMS Implementation 200+ USACE watersheds $150 M investment, nationally $6 M for Texas 6+ year plan Supports
► Dam safety, operations (forecasting), can be leveraged (FEMA)
2014► Colorado, Neches,
Guadalupe, Trinity, San Jacinto (Buffalo Bayou)
2015► Brazos
MetVue -> HMS-> RiverWare-> RAS-> FIA
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HEC-MetVue Meteorological Data Tool Real-time flood forecasting
► Rainfall scaling► Additional calibration
Grids or lumped DSS Design storms for standard
frequencies► Integration with NOAA Atlas
14 PMP studies – HMR52,
HMR55a Storm rotation and translation Storm Analysis
► Depth-area-duration, hyetographs, moments of inertia
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Military and Civil Works AE Contracts
Currently Available Military
► SE Huey SB► Arizpe SB► Blair-Remy SB► Merrick – PBSJ (Atkins) UR► Mason-Hangar/Pond UR
Civil Works► URS/Freeze-Nichols/Huitt-Zollars UR► CDM-Stanley UR
Survey► Munoz-Dannenbaum SB► IEA SB► Continental Mapping Consultants SB
Construction Phase Services (CPS)► Argo Systems► URS Group► Jacobs-Huitt-Zollars
Coming on Line Military
► 2 - $15M UR (unrestricted)► 1 - $ 10M SDVOSB► 1- $10M EDWOSB► 1 – $5M HUBZone► 3 - $10M 8(a)
Civil Works► 2 - $7.5M SB
Construction Phase Services (CPS)
► 2 - $10M SDVOSB► 1 - $5M EDWOSB
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WEB Site
www.swf-wc.usace.army.mil
Questions?