building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and
DESCRIPTION
Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and develop adaptation responses for the mixed crop/livestock production systems in the Argentinean , Brazilian and Uruguayan Pampas. Principal Scientists Graciela Magrin, INTA, Argentina - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and
develop adaptation responses for the mixed crop/livestock production systems
in the Argentinean , Brazilian andUruguayan Pampas
Principal Scientists
• Graciela Magrin, INTA, Argentina• María I. Travasso, INTA, Argentina• Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina
• Gilberto Cunha, Brazil• J. Mauricio Fernandes, Brazil
• Agustin Gimenez, GRAS- INIA, Uruguay• Walter E. Baethgen, IFDC, Uruguay
• Holger Meinke, APSRU, DPI, Australia
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Establishing
Applied Systems Analysis
Networks
for
Building Regional Adaptation Capacity
(AIACC LA 27)
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Agriculture Crops:Wheat
Abiotic FactorsBiotic Factors
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WHEAT DISEASES
Powdery mildew Glume blotch
Tan spot
Spot blotch
Take allBYDV
Blast
Leaf rust
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Window of susceptibility Highly influenced by weather variables
FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT OF WHEAT
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Mycotoxins
DON – Deoxynivalenol – (0.5 ppm) Wheat zero Barley
Maize Flour ? DON, Fuminosin,...
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CROP MODELS
DSSAT - Decision Suport System for Agrotechnology Transfer
Wheat Model (Soil-H20, Soil N, Plant phenology, biomass, weather variables)
FHB Sub-modelHeading starts
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+PATHOGENSUSCETIBLE
HOST
=
FHB
+WEATHER(P, T ºC)
FHB Model
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WHEAT-FHB MODEL DEMO
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Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
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Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
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Heads: 16
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Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
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Heads: 4
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Heads: 16
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Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
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Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
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2002245
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Flowers: 114
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002246
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Flowers: 156
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 495
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002247
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Flowers: 212
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 719
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1078
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002248
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Flowers: 134
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 886
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1418
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1595
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002249
0.4
Flowers: 225
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 486
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 1636
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 1951
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 1788
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
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2002250
0.0
Flowers: 198
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 713
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 502
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 1926
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 1839
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 1453
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002251
0.0
Flowers: 243Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 889
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 1497
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 732
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 2331
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 1958
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1294
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002252
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Flowers: 172
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 1094
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 1923
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 2471
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 1187
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 2652
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1885
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1136
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
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2002253
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Flowers: 287
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 798
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 2355
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 3151
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 3361
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 1732
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 2399
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1555
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 843
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002254
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Flowers: 287
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 798
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 2355
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 3151
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 3361
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 1732
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 2399
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1555
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 843
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002255
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Flowers: 238
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers:927
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 1.92
Flowers: 1027
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 1.8
Flowers: 2861
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 2.52
Flowers: 3149
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 1.72
Flowers: 2998
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1453
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1879
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 1092
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers:536
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002256
0.3
Flowers: 176
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers:971
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 3,59
Flowers: 1724
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 4,95
Flowers: 1183
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 5,93
Flowers: 3035
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 6,76
Flowers: 2878
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 5,03
Flowers: 2253
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 4,19
Flowers: 855
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 3,15
Flowers: 1200
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 1,04
Flowers:622
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 0,62
Flowers: 253
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0,31
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002257
0.14
Flowers: 32
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers:1119
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 2003
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 7.65
Flowers: 2652
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 10.71
Flowers: 1509
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 11.08
Flowers: 3127
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 9.36
Flowers: 2442
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 7.80
Flowers: 1694
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 5.85
Flowers: 468
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads: 2.85
Flowers:709
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 1.17
Flowers: 306
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 0.58
Flowers: 83
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0.09
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 0
FHB - SIMULATION
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2002258
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers:647
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 2370
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 3194
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 12.47
Flowers: 3455
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 13.10
Flowers: 1900
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 11.38
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FHB - SIMULATION
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FHB - SIMULATION
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FHB - SIMULATION
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FHB - SIMULATION
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FHB - SIMULATION
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FHB - SIMULATION
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FHB - SIMULATION
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FHB - SIMULATION
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FHB - SIMULATION
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Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
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Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002278
0.35
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
![Page 59: Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070416/568151d7550346895dc0126e/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002279
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
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Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002280
0.0
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Incidence = 65 %
Severe
![Page 61: Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070416/568151d7550346895dc0126e/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2002281
0.45
Flowers: 0
Heads: 4
Inf.Heads: 0.48
Flowers: 0
Heads: 16
Inf.Heads: 5.04
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 8.91
Flowers: 0
Heads: 42
Inf.Heads: 17.51
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads: 33.55
Flowers: 0
Heads: 48
Inf.Heads:31.82
Flowers: 0
Heads: 40
Inf.Heads: 31.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 30
Inf.Heads: 23.98
Flowers: 0
Heads: 20
Inf.Heads:17.10
Flowers: 0
Heads: 12
Inf.Heads: 9.72
Flowers: 0
Heads: 6
Inf.Heads: 4.74
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.47
Flowers: 0
Heads: 2
Inf.Heads: 1.25
FHB - SIMULATION
Incidence = 65 %
Severe
![Page 62: Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070416/568151d7550346895dc0126e/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
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observed FHB index (%)
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27
deviations (%)
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
![Page 64: Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070416/568151d7550346895dc0126e/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Weather inputsHistoric daily weatherScenario daily weather
Wheat crop model
Agronomic inputsEarly spring wheatNine sowing datesThree-day intervalsSoil properties
FHB incidence
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FHB INC PASSO FUNDO 1957-1980
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FHB INC PASSO FUNDO 1981-2003
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FHB INC PASSO FUNDO SCENARIO
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FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA 1931-1965
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FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA 1966-1999
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FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA SCENARIO
![Page 72: Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070416/568151d7550346895dc0126e/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
FHB INC PERGAMINO 1931-1966
![Page 73: Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070416/568151d7550346895dc0126e/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
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FHB INC PERGAMINO SCENARIO
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Final Remmarks
Models using climatic variability and trend analysis are tools for defining FHB-risk
FHB - Blame it on Minimum Tillage
More frequent FHB epidemics
Raise food safety concerns
There is a need for breeding more resistant wheat
Interactions with other crops/pests