Building a Global Flood Observatory (June 26, 2018 Workshop)

• Dr. Sagy Cohen, University of Alabama

• Dr. Robert Brakenridge, Dartmouth Flood Observatory, University of

Colorado

• Dr. John Galantowicz, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.

(AER)

• Dr. Patrick Matgen Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology

(LIST)

Pat: Status of SAR flood mapping systems….remaining challenges in

automated and semi-automated SAR-based flood mapping (e.g. detection of

water in built up environments & under vegetated canopies, estimation of return

periods/probabilities of exceedance, selection of "dry" references, assimilation

of flood maps into numerical models, assessment of classification uncertainties

etc.). We need to continue to develop more accurate retrieval algorithms and

compare their results.

John: we are in a golden age of data and the challenge is how to make

automatic use of it all for flood maps. We need metadata…attribution of

uncertainties and blind spots from each source — as well as translation

libraries, i.e., how to make one kind of data look like another kind prior to

merging them. Way forward is for discussion

Lots of Work to be Done!

But…

funding? And how can we

work together towards these

challenges?

Building A Global Flood Observatory

Discuss First: technical challenges. What are the first things needed to

put such a flood prediction, detection, measurement, and mapping system

into operation?

Then on the logistical/practical issues: How is this to be funded? Who can

operate? If many components involved and linked together, how would

various GFP participant organizations participate in building this

envisaged "Global Flood Observatory”?

We need ideas, and some answers as to how to move forward…

Technical Components

Prediction

Detection (location and size)

Monitoring (”events” can last many weeks)

Mapping at various scales

Delivery of these outputs

Recording of mapping results

Technical Components(all automated or semi-automated)

Prediction

GloFAS, UMD GFMS, others

Detection (location and magnitude)

Microwave techniques, GFDS, in situ stations, media, social

media

Monitoring and Mapping (”events” can last many weeks)

MODIS NRT, SAR , High Resolution Sensors

Delivery of these outputs

Recording of mapping results

Logistical Components

Umbrella Organization (consortium)

Each component is automated or semi-automated

From the start, end-users are integral; set up to receive the results.

In-Country or EU funding for each component

But block grant or Overall consortium funding also needed.

Not an organization for meetings, but meetings needed, probably at least annually

Tools such as remote sensing and modeling generate raw information. An

“observatory” is needed to compile, organize, and disseminate such information to

disaster responders and for preservation in an accumulating global flood record.

The Challenge: automated, consistent, sustainable, and continually being improved

Next slide: a quote from the Bulletin of the American Meterological Society, 2010

The article is mostly about advances in forecasting capability, but there is something

very interesting at the end, and highly relevant to the GFP…

“Sagasti (2004) discusses the problems encountered by CFAB in more

general terms. He refers to technological interactions between

developed and less developed nations as a “Sisyphus effect” that

requires continually rebuilding of capacity in the developing

world. “

“When the capacity building is related to information (e.g., the CFAB

forecasts), we argue for a “world is flat” approach: that links

collaboratively the information providers from the developed world with

the information users in the developing world.”

“Once the developing country reaches a certain level of capacity for the

project at hand (e.g., reliable internet band width), then in-country

capacity building can proceed. “

“The envisioned system needs to engage the academic research and

applications community to provide technologies to support the

developing world.”

Given the history, there is evident need to build

international, “always on, always available” systems that

are sustainable, even permanent.

Systems that do not depend, too much, on any nation’s in-

country capability, but remain available through the political

ups and downs, including changes in personnel and, even,

war and revolution.

In today’s world, it does not matter if a hydrological model

and its predictive output is being run in-country or out.

What matters is that it is supported, maintained, improved,

and providing accurate output that can address the

pressing humanitarian and economic needs.

Perhaps the same for certain types of flood imaging and

mapping systems….

Tools such as remote sensing and modeling generate raw information in near real

time. The “Flood Record” is needed to compile, organize, preserve, and disseminate

such information for its use in understanding future flood risk.

The Challenge: automated, consistent, sustainable, and continually being improved

Could funding be gained, for example, if we set up a network of

system components, and each provider sought in-country funding

for an international effort that, after all, would return valuable

information back to each host nation? Or…?

Discussion should focus

first (11:45 to 12:10) on the technical obstacles, work to be done,

and

second on how such work could be supported and sustained

over time to bring online this environmental monitoring capabilty.

GFP: who are we?

o Hydrologic modelers and meteorologists: predicting streamflow in time and space

o Floodplain modelers: predicting flood risk

o Flood mappers and measurers: detecting, measuring, and mapping floods as they occur

o Flood disaster responders: providing food, housing, medical, and other assistance post-flood. Including planning for the future (for example, pre-positioning of supplies and assets)

o The space agencies, including NASA, ESA, JAXA and others: providing the observational infrastructure on which so much is based

o Insurers and reinsurers: providing economic security from flood damage

o Development banks: loan assistance for projects important to sustainable economic progress

Related Effortso CEOS, Committee on Earth Observation Satellites

and the included Disasters WG/DRM Floods Pilot

o CEOS supports GEO, Group on Earth Observations, and GEOSS, the Global Earth Obsevation System

o GEO: for “a future wherein decisions and actions for the benefit of humankind are informed by coordinated, comprehensive and sustained Earth observations and information.” And GEOSS: linking Earth observations world-wide for- agriculture, biodiversity, climate, disasters, ecosystems, energy, health, water and weather, to make them available for decision-making.

o IWG-SEM: International Working Group for Satellite Emergency Mapping: “Supporting disaster response by improving international cooperation in satellite based emergency mapping”

o International Charter For Space and Major Disasters: “providing a unified system of space data acquisition and delivery to those affected by natural or man-made disasters”

“Those who do not

remember the past

are condemned to

repeat it”

George Santayana

Are we on the right

track in avoiding

future catastrophes?

Are bilateral aid

programs, capacity

building, attempts to

support in-country

organizations with

technical capability

all that is needed?

Or do we need

something more: a

state-of-the-art

global infrastrucure?

Global Flood Observatory

• In order to bridge the gap between science and practitioners, the

Partnership will run a collaborative analysis service, called the

Flood Observatory.

• Using the global flood tools and services in a daily roster, a brief

analysis of forecast and detected floods will be made available to

decision makers in civil protection and international aid

organizations.

• In addition, a visualization platform will be established to collect,

integrate, and analyze different services and to disseminate

information to all stakeholders in the Partnership.

From: De Groeve, T., J. Thielen, R. Brakenridge, R. Adler, L. Alfieri, D. Kull,

F. Lindsay, O. Imperiali, F. Pappenberger, R. Rudari, P. Salamon, N. Villars,

and K. Wyjad, 2014, Joining Forces in a Global Flood Partnership. Bull.

Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00147.1.

Floods Compared to Earthquakes

(on the global scale)

Task Earthquakes Floods

Prediction Not yet possible Experimental, but can be accomplished

Detection Routine, RT Routine from news or in-situ gauging;Experimental from modeling or remote sensing, NRT

Characterization Routine, RT Experimental, NRT

Mapping Experimental, post-quake Routine, NRT

Recording Routine (e.g. IRIS) Experimental, to be done

Risk Assessment Routine Experimental, can be combined with and validate modeling